Cubswin11
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Everything posted by Cubswin11
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I’d go Darnold, home game and they have to win. Baker/Rams are DOA and on the road vs Packers off a bye week in likely poor weather, Pickett in concussion protocol and on the road/he sucks, McCoy sucks and on the road in Denver vs a good defense. Think Darnold is the play. -
Wouldn’t have hated him at that price for a 3B/2B/COF bat, assuming this Swanson buzz is true I think I like Segura the most as a 3B add. Wisdom and Mervis, with some Bellinger can handle 1B. Then even add a Conforto other type to have some COF/3B/1B/DH rotation with those guys + Morel.
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You absolutely have to trade Derozan and Caruso, listen on Lavine and then take whatever for Vuc or other pieces.
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Solid deal, like it. Assuming is treated/used as like the 4th best RP and we do another add or two there, even in this level. I think the bullpen will be a strength.
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Or Jesse is just making things up because he’s a horsefeathers. He can’t remember where he had the conversation with Jed at the GM or Winter Meetings? They’re 2 weeks apart in different cities, as a supposed serious reporter he should be able to nail that down.
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This guy has hit on stuff in the past and has Vanderbilt ties, iirc. https://twitter.com/abeds15/status/1603185708553732096?s=46&t=SJcbbaRYb_ofs9E0Qkcv2A
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Damn that would’ve been a nice deal for us, even if we had to pay a little premium for not being in LA/a contender. Even though we have more opportunity for him to start.
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Call me crazy but not getting Vazquez, a 32 year old fringe full time starting catcher, for 3/30 or more is fine by me
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Using the Swanson rules can’t I downplay the 6 WAR (carried by Devers’ only positive D season) and claim BABIP luck (moreso than Swanson as Devers hits more GBs) during these years? It’s only a BABIP in the .330s his 6 win year. .307 and .329 in his 4 win years. Not some nearly .350 Swanson needs to get to those WAR levels along with insane/outlier defensive ratings.
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Tbf since you’re into narrative: neither one of these guys, or any good player, is interested in an actively losing org these days. So a non-Swanson Plan better be more than Noah Syndergaard and worse, otherwise yeah totally will keep (at min Ohtani) them out Devers has had seasons of .7, 1, and .7 fWAR and is being painted as some uber mensch in comparison…What be the rules? Devers has 2, 4+ WAR years and a 6+ year, Covid year was on pace for 2+, he’s only 26, doesn’t strike out much, healthy wRC+’s, walks averageish but up last two years, crushes RHP, .900+ ops, 130+ wRC+. And again Swanson isn’t a factor in getting him or Ohtani. The Rangers, who finished worse than us this year and 2 years ago got Seager and Semien and deGrom, the Tigers also worse than us got Javy. The Phillies got Harper off a mediocre, no playoff, year, the Padres got your man Machado off a 66 win season. It’s all about money at the end of the day.
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And I think that 9-12 range is fair with room to rise more than fall. The Davis and Canario injuries and Amaya to a lesser degree certainly didn’t help. I think there’s an objective case they’re closer to top 3-5 than 8-12 or so by June/July.
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He was almost 1.5% below league average in BB% this past year and around league average most of his career. His Ks are above and likely continue to trend up with age. He is the definition of boring and not special and not a guy I’d tie up 10-15% of my yearly payroll in because he moves no needles in the position we’re in and when we are good again he’s a sunk cost/liability/declining asset at that point. might as well not even try right i obviously get the pessimism, but if we are even going to pretend to go after guys like ohtani and devers, we need to be improving the team right now It’s not about not trying and just signing Swanson as the big move isn’t really trying either, imo. The time to try/get guys passed us this offseason already I feel. Settling for Swanson is just bad business, imo, it’s not worth tying the money up in him. There’s ways to improve the team without what’s likely a bad contract that could hurt future moves and makes us not all that much better this year. We aren’t getting or missing out on Ohtani or Devers because we do or do not have Dansby horsefeathering Swanson. We’re missing out on them because we tie too much up in Swanson and/or aren’t willing to pay enough to get either of them.
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- Swanson’s career BB% is league average or better - K rate a little abv league (career, 24% v lg 23%) - Others are covering the BABIP issue Descriptors like ordinary and special are boring and empty noise! The Cubs aren’t even good and we out here talkin’ about being special?! Get good and all that extra stuff opens up (unless/until we run out another coredation for aging and wanting some more money) He was almost 1.5% below league average in BB% this past year and around league average most of his career. His Ks are above and likely continue to trend up with age. He is the definition of boring and not special and not a guy I’d tie up 10-15% of my yearly payroll in because he moves no needles in the position we’re in and when we are good again he’s a sunk cost/liability/declining asset at that point.
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Correa to the Giants 13/350 (Deal Nixed Due to Medicals)
Cubswin11 replied to mias_tisg's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I’m fairly certain I have not watched 75% of a full game since ~2018? 2019 for me. Since then I've MAYBE cumulatively seen about 6-7 innings. I probably watched 30-50 full games this year, checked in for a few innings on 75% of the others and attended 1 in Wrigley and 2-3 in Milwaukee. http://i.imgur.com/qoqhcgJ.gif -
Now that we have Statcast there's no reason to look at a high BABIP and assume it's just good fortune. There's no indication under the hood that Swansons performance the last three years is built on luck. To the contrary, he's underperformed his xwOBA by a smidge despite being a pretty fast dude. But he needs to BABIP like crazy to be a star type player and not some ordinary 2-3 win dude. He doesn’t walk and Ks at a pretty high clip, he has BABIPS in the .290s over multiple seasons and wRC+’s under 100 in those years. I’d bet he has more subs 3.5-4 win years than more over whatever contract he gets here and you’re paying him to be that 3.5-4+ win guy with the money he’ll take and not some good but nothing special player he likely is.
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Waiting until the trade deadline before everyone was a FA certainly didn't do anything to help with that. If he makes those moves before the 2021 season we're looking a whole lot better. By all accounts Jed killed the 2021 deadline. He got PCA, Alcantara, Kilian and Canario. I know we’re all pissed at Jed now but to think he didn’t do a great job in returns in 2021 is insane and the system is also in really good shape and on the rise. It’s far from average.
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Yeah if I had to guess Swanson gets under 200 and maybe some creative opt out stuff. He still scares the horsefeathers out of me, he needs to BABIP like crazy to have offensive value (like .340-.350+ BABIP). He doesn’t walk/get in base. He’s an extremely ordinary player if he even BABIPS .290-.300. horsefeathers STEAMER has him at a .300 something BABIP this year and that’s a .249/.309/.413 slash line. I don’t care how good the defense is, that’s not a 9 figure player.
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Late 2024 aggressively/things breaking right, 2025 sometime realistically. He hasn’t even played above A ball yet, he’s exciting but I’m moving him for a Devers caliber player.
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Based on their unwillingness to spend, I can't see them moving their top prospects who they're going to almost entirely depend on to make the team relevant in the next few years. Oh I don’t think they’d make the move, more just wondering what a hypothetical trade would look like. I think that’s in the ballpark for 2 more years of control of a 26 year old Devers.
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What does a Devers trade look like? 1 of Davis-PCA, 1 of Hernandez-Alcantara, 1 of Caissie-Triantos, and a major league piece like Thompson or Morel?
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Correa to the Giants 13/350 (Deal Nixed Due to Medicals)
Cubswin11 replied to mias_tisg's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
What a joke that we couldn’t match or beat that in some way. horsefeathers this team -
I didn’t realize Brian Anderson was a FA, as an ancillary 3B/COF add I wouldn’t hate it.
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The bet is obviously another year removed from TJ, so a velo bump could come and he has a diverse pitch mix where maybe some can be scrapped/a pitch can be amplified and also we seem to know a lot more about pitching vs the Angels. Not saying I’d go nuts (2 year deal at most) on Syndergaard but I think there are some tweaks with some under the hood work he could be a perfectly fine middle rotation, ~3 win, pitcher. He also doesn’t cost a draft pick, which with the remaining FA SPs is a decent bonus.
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I started looking at him this afternoon too. It feels like there's about a 30% chance he dumps his sinker, plays with a couple breaking ball grips, and resumes being awesome even at his new velo. But there's like a 70% chance he's just simply washed. He's basically pitcher Bellinger. Yeah I was thinking giving him the Bellinger deal with maybe a healthier option/buyout or even 2 years at that rough deal (or a little less to smooth out AAV) with a 3rd year option/buyout.
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Obviously interesting to see Taillon there, but also makes me more intrigued by Syndergaard. Think he should be cheapish/take a shorter term deal and think we can lab/tinker with him and the Angels are garbage with pitching.
