Cubswin11

No, sham season. Still haven’t won a real World Series with the rough main core guys from 2015 on.

are stats and probabilities even on their side there? nick anderson has been garbage in the postseason and betts is better against righties this year They only manage by them so I’d assume they thought they were in a vacuum, but they had a giant blind spot that Anderson hasn’t been Anderson for a while and Snell was shoving. Basically this

horsefeathering nerd ass Rays going 100% by the stats and probabilities when there had to be some more nuance and gut feel situation to manage there.

The shift sucks, I’m all for restricting it if not outright banning.

The lesson in all this, as always, is Trueblood is a complete horsefeathering moron

You think too highly of other teams and their owners! Baez would move. Teams I'd eliminate among those 11 before the Cubs: Reds - Their big rental was Bauer, light on prospects Blue Jays - In play for basically all the FAs, meh on their presence in trades Twins - Just not happening Phillies - Don't have the prospects, likely only an opportunistic FA spender this offseason (Semien?) Dodgers - Placed in by media because Dodgers, but Seager/Lux already has the kind of upside up the middle to keep them spectators and their top prospects after Lux are meh Do you really think Theo is going to trade 3 or 4 of Amaya, Hoerner, Marquez, Caratini, and Davis for 1 year of Lindor? Also, What would PTR think of adding $20 million to the payroll for 2021 and hundreds of millions in extensions after that? There’s no way Lindor costs that much for 1 year but also agree that we aren’t trading away and depleting prospect capital this year. I don’t think we are going to have any sort of an offseason where we trade meaningful prospects.

I’m fine trading Vic if we can get a potential rotation arm or a contacty bat. I’m not a huge fan, he’s good as a backup C, but think his offense is closer to 2020 and 2018 than 2019. If some team thinks he can start and pay the appropriate price I’d move him. I go back to Jon Gray, the Rockies got -1.2 WAR from catchers last year. Worst in MLB. I wonder if there’s some sort of Vic for Gray (with other parts) move. Gray is a FA after the year and the Rockies don’t seem to overly like him and also cry poor and he’ll make decent money in his final year of arb. A Yu, Kyle, Gray, FA (Q or Lester back maybe), Adbert/Mills/etc rotation would be pretty solid.

Dodgers gonna pull this off

I listened to a podcast a few weeks back and forget the exact details.... but what I recall is basically what they are doing is the first test given that would trigger a positive isn’t the most accurate but faster and done daily, when a positive is triggered off of that test they do a test that takes longer (2-3 days iirc) but is more accurate to confirm or not. All the players wear some sort of tracking devices too and if they’ve been around a positive test person they have to take the more accurate test too before being cleared and isolate/quarantine until results come back. But they aren’t taking 2-3 days to announce the false positive was false. They aren’t? Honestly I’m not paying that close attention to any of these individual announcements to track the days between positives and confirmation or whatever. Just that’s what I recall the protocol being from when I heard it. Not surprised they’re maybe skirting the rules.

I listened to a podcast a few weeks back and forget the exact details.... but what I recall is basically what they are doing is the first test given that would trigger a positive isn’t the most accurate but faster and done daily, when a positive is triggered off of that test they do a test that takes longer (2-3 days iirc) but is more accurate to confirm or not. All the players wear some sort of tracking devices too and if they’ve been around a positive test person they have to take the more accurate test too before being cleared and isolate/quarantine until results come back.

He drank some of Trump’s blood. He’s good now, whole big thing.

Stanek (always been a fan, think there’s a high level RP in there still. Possibly a multi inning one) and Frazier (he does the contact thing and would be a decent DH vs RHP and is a caddy for Nico at 2B/can move Nico to CF/SS some) please.

A lot of those arb estimates seem light on the higher end guys. Tepera was one of our best relievers this year, I wouldn’t NT for ~$1 mil in savings. Rea showed to be decentish depth and still has options, he also looked like he could be a decent 1 inning RP I’d prefer to keep him too for ~$1 mil. The rest, yeah, they can go.

I think he’s made legit corrections and improvements to be a pretty good MLB player moving forward (3 +/- .5 win player with maybe 1-2, 4-5ish win year if things break right) but if the return is right I’d be fine moving him. He’d have to bring you back something(s) that helps now though. If you’re trading him and his control for prospects 1+ year away you might as well blow everything up and bottom for 1-2 years even if it means trading guys for ~60 cents on the dollar (Bryant, Javy, Schwarbs).

Thanks for showing up, Kyle Wright

I think he sucks relative to contract he’s going to get (estimate are 5+ years and $100+ million from what I’ve seen) and think there’s a decent amount of downside and limited upside and just prefer alternative routes for the money. The leg injury history is a thing at this point. Knee, hamstring and calf now. He had elbow issues in 2018 as well. The GB rate is great but his stuff/velo isn’t special. He doesn’t strike guys out and his walk rates are just kinda okay and not great (64th of 132 qualified pitchers in BB% since 2017 and for a guy with his lack of stuff/velo that’s a little troubling to me). As he ages in to his 30s and his stuff/velo slips due to age he doesn’t have a ton of margin, imo. Again, this is all through the point of view he’s getting 5+ and 100+. I don’t want anything to do with him at that and think there’s red flags. I just don’t see how he’s really worth it to us on a 1 year prove it deal or long term deal with the other needs we have and spending restrictions to whatever degree. I don't know all the background on his injuries, but as mentioned above, it hasn't hurt him yet in terms of innings pitched. Walk rate isn't overly impressive, but GB rate is elite, as is (relatedly) his home run rate. If it's really 5+ years, then sure, we can pass, but can't see him getting something like that. He missed half a year in 2018 with shoulder (not elbow like I mistyped above) and other injuries and just got over 100IP, 2019 he was normal then this last year was wiped out due to injury. So 2 of the last 3 years his IP have been affected by injuries. The 5+ 100+ I got from a quick search and a few articles. Maybe that changes but it’s been consistently in that range. But yeah if he comes for more around half that or more I’d be in I guess if we have other money to spend on the offense and another SP. But if we have ~15 AAV to use on a FA I’d rather get in on Brantley or DJ and then go for the volume approach on SP adds (Q+a cheap guy) vs spending it all on 1 guy for the rotation.

Q has gone 170+ innings every year since 2013 and has the overall cleaner injury history in recent years. He at least pitched some this year while Stroman was completely shut down, Stroman also has a history of leg injuries and had a shoulder issue in 2018 plus he recently has a year where he barely topped 100 IP. Q is just the safer bet to me to meet the ~165IP and ~4.25 ERA threshold I’m looking for as the mid rotation starter add (again I think covering innings pitching even mediocre is gonna be a premium in 2021) and think he’ll be cheaper than Stroman (since Stroman is younger and think is just thought of more highly). I just don’t see the upside in Stroman (injury history and profile) that it’s worth paying him. I’d rather go another way. Other guys who I prefer for a fraction of Stroman and you can take 2-3 chances on for Stroman’s money does include Q but also (and these guys carry risk, but again give me 2-3 of them over Stroman) Desclafani, Minor, Nova, Odorizzi, and Richards off the top of my head (haven’t looked at a FA list recently). Give me Q and one of names mentioned for the amount Stroman goes for. Or save some money for building out the offense. Again this is more I just don’t like Stroman for the likely money thing so take a few shots on other guys for the same money or less than me liking any of these guys more than him. Desclafani, Minor, and Nova suck in a non-debatable way. Just resign Lester if you want to throw someone out there to give up 4 runs in 6 innings once a week. Richards has pitched about 200 innings in the last 5 years total. Odorizzi put up a 2.6 fWAR in 2018 and then a 4.3 in 2019, and then only pitched 13 innings in 2020, so not sure why you'd think he's getting significantly less than Stroman. Minor was worth more WAR than Stroman in 2019 and I think he’ll be cheaper. Desclafani undoubtedly sucked this year but the stuff is there (his FB velo was the highest it’s ever been this year), he will be extremely cheap and think he has the parts to be a decent SP. He’d also be the second or third guy brought in and have to earn a spot as the 4/5. Same reasoning for Nova there mostly. And yeah Richards carries risk but his stuff is generally back and he’s intriguing for the 4/5th role. Give me Q back and 1 of those guys for less money along with internal options to fill out the rotation (Adbert/Mills early then Marquez/Abbott during the year). I thought Odorizzi was more 33/34 and not just 30, you’re right that he’ll probably get a decent deal.

I think he sucks relative to contract he’s going to get (estimate are 5+ years and $100+ million from what I’ve seen) and think there’s a decent amount of downside and limited upside and just prefer alternative routes for the money. The leg injury history is a thing at this point. Knee, hamstring and calf now. He had elbow issues in 2018 as well. The GB rate is great but his stuff/velo isn’t special. He doesn’t strike guys out and his walk rates are just kinda okay and not great (64th of 132 qualified pitchers in BB% since 2017 and for a guy with his lack of stuff/velo that’s a little troubling to me). As he ages in to his 30s and his stuff/velo slips due to age he doesn’t have a ton of margin, imo. Again, this is all through the point of view he’s getting 5+ and 100+. I don’t want anything to do with him at that and think there’s red flags. I just don’t see how he’s really worth it to us on a 1 year prove it deal or long term deal with the other needs we have and spending restrictions to whatever degree.

- What about Quintana suggests more innings? Stroman threw more innings in 2019, almost 10% more actually, in their last full season - Who would be the two guys that can reasonably expected to do that and for cheap? If it's a certainty thing, I agree it should be as much as possilbe, and the choices are guy who opted out after a calf injury, guy who got hurt and threw 10 innings after a weak 2019, and ?? then I mean....guy with the calf injury pretty easily Q has gone 170+ innings every year since 2013 and has the overall cleaner injury history in recent years. He at least pitched some this year while Stroman was completely shut down, Stroman also has a history of leg injuries and had a shoulder issue in 2018 plus he recently has a year where he barely topped 100 IP. Q is just the safer bet to me to meet the ~165IP and ~4.25 ERA threshold I’m looking for as the mid rotation starter add (again I think covering innings pitching even mediocre is gonna be a premium in 2021) and think he’ll be cheaper than Stroman (since Stroman is younger and think is just thought of more highly). I just don’t see the upside in Stroman (injury history and profile) that it’s worth paying him. I’d rather go another way. Other guys who I prefer for a fraction of Stroman and you can take 2-3 chances on for Stroman’s money does include Q but also (and these guys carry risk, but again give me 2-3 of them over Stroman) Desclafani, Minor, Nova, Odorizzi, and Richards off the top of my head (haven’t looked at a FA list recently). Give me Q and one of names mentioned for the amount Stroman goes for. Or save some money for building out the offense. Again this is more I just don’t like Stroman for the likely money thing so take a few shots on other guys for the same money or less than me liking any of these guys more than him.

OTOH this is because Quintana sucks Stroman sucks too and I feel Q probably can give you more innings on a reasonable projection and Stroman carries more volatility with being able to cover innings. And innings will be a key in 2021 since guys didn’t pitch as much this year. It doesn’t even need to be Q over Stroman. Give me 2 guys who can reasonably give you ~165 innings of ~4.25 ERA baseball next year for the price of what I expect Stroman to get. I just don’t have any interest in a Hamels type 1 year deal or Lance Lynn+ multi year deal on Stroman given his lack of innings the last 3 years and just overall pitching profile I do not like.

I want nothing to do with Stroman. He’s battled injuries, granted no serious arm injuries, didn’t pitch at all in 2020 and doesn’t even have 290 IP combined between 2018 and 2019. I also just hate his profile, especially because I think he goes for a decent contract. I’d rather use the money he takes on 2-3 separate things and even prefer bringing Q back over him anticipating Q takes a fraction of Stroman.

Swapping out Schwarbs for Brantley would be a great upgrade for us. Even if the overall value WAR wise between the two isn’t all that different. The drastically different profile would be a welcome reworking here.

Dodgers are in some trouble. Kershaw isn’t going Game 3 now either.

If he goes to the Pats he’ll be good, anywhere else he will be completely washed and probably an issue to deal with in the locker room. That’s how this works.