Cubswin11

I’m just not overly concerned this last ~40 games of 2018 is what any of these guys are long term. You’d have to go a long way to prove that I should be more worried about those games meaning more and predicting future sucking over looking at the body of work these guys have put up outside of that sample that says they aren’t those hitters. Outside of Mar/Apr Rizzo was good to great (.980, .780, .870, 1.00+, .840, OPS by month after Mar/APR sure that’s a little streaky but it’s between being a streaky good to great hitter) . Almora was just used too much against RHP and needs to be a strict platoon guy, Baez probably isn’t this but he’s at least a ~30 HR SS moving forward even if he hits .250 that has value, Willy is going to be fine and was good most of the year until the innings killed him and I’m sure he was dealing with injuries they need to cut his games back by ~20 or so next year he was the same hitter as last year just the power was gone which maybe it doesn’t come all the way back but there’s more than this years in him. I think in terms of Contreras this exposed how much he NEEDS to hit to offset just how bad he is behind the plate. I'm not a huge fan of relying on a player whose value is that lopsided at such a critical position. Granted, catchers suck in general, so he's got more of a curve, but I am expecting more of a lowered expectations thing a la Schwarber with him as opposed to just assuming he's going to be this sure-thing; it's obvious he put in a lot of extra innings, but he hit the wall HARD by the end of July. Rizzo is....Rizzo. His offensive value has been ticking downward on Fangraphs each season since 2015, and hey, he's 29; that's what happens. He's going to have his awesome stretches over the season, but those are going to keep getting shorter while the slumps keep getting longer. Obviously that doesn't mean he's not valuable, but it's also not realistic to not think he's not going to keep trending downward. Same with Baez, IMO; look, if he proves a million people wrong and somehow does this again, then he's some kind of sorcerer. Plus we're pretty much going to have to expect him to have some real DL time with how he plays. This isn't saying the team is doomed; I just don't think 2018 was this weird outlier that isn't likely again. There's a lot of flawed/questionable players on the team. And that's not even saying the 2018 team was "truly bad" or whatever; I just think it's more likely than not that this division is going to be the Cubs battling with at least 2 other teams for much of the season for the division. But, hey, that means the Cubs are consistently competitive! That's great! We just probably won't get that "run away with it and hide all year" season. All fair points and yeah the Contreras/Schwarber comp thing is a good point. Still he’s a ~3 WAR catcher, that’s huge to have and the defensive numbers there can be wonky and maybe he rates out better at some point (obviously we don’t need metrics sometimes because the eye test alone tells us he certainly isn’t good at some things and needs work, but the tools are still there to not be that bad). I don’t necessarily agree on Rizzo but get you’re overall point, he’s not ever going to be better but I think he’s still plenty capable of being a .900 OPS+ guy for a few years and his underlying abilities give him a solid floor. He’s still really consistent in where his end of year numbers roughly end up since 2015. Javy I have no clue and I think you just have to let that play out but agree on the injury thing and we need to have a decent backup there this coming year. The last point on the division, idk. We’ll probably project for low-mid 90s wins again next year and nobody else will be above 86-88ish. The division is good though and limits our ceiling a bit, there isn’t a truly awful team or teams to beat up on but luckily there isn’t a juggernaut either or other team with our resources. We put ourselves in a spot to run away, relatively speaking, this year and then just fell off/Brewers got hot but it was in play ~4 weeks ago to do it to have the last 10 games or so off if things fell a bit different. It’s hard and rare to have a 2016 season and just run away with it, even the Astros and Dodgers who did it last year weren’t able to do it this year.

I really like Jordy Mercer as the FA MIF target. It's not sexy, but he won't cost much and fills a need well. He handles SS fine and hits lefties well (which I think it's important because vs lefties Zobrist needs to go to the OF and Javy can switch to 2B). He was at 7%BB and 14%K vs lefties this year and slashed .286/.345/.410 and for his career he's at almost 9%BB and 13%K with a .294/.359/.453 slash line vs lefties. He doesn't hit righties well but we will need some RHB that handle lefties well with a LHB heavy roster.

Some bring a Pizza take in here and it’s in play

Outside of like 'I think we could get a really good pitcher for Contreras'...no. Yeah, I was thinking Contreras could net something of value. He was pretty atrocious at the plate in the 2nd half anyway and is not good at pitch framing. Caratini has been atrocious at the plate his whole life and isn’t good at framing either

Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him? Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out. Think that’s a risk you gotta take on a guy like Harper.

I think it would be pretty rare for that to happen (maybe not even allowed?). I bet they give KB a healthy bump and treat him right like they always have in ARB before.

I like most of this but I'd rather trade Contreras and keep Caratini. What the hell? No, Caratini horsefeathering sucks

Probably hard. But if the wild card game counts (I assume it does) he’s missing 28 games next season, not 40. Would be eligible to come back in the beginning of May. Just non tender him

I’m just not overly concerned this last ~40 games of 2018 is what any of these guys are long term. You’d have to go a long way to prove that I should be more worried about those games meaning more and predicting future sucking over looking at the body of work these guys have put up outside of that sample that says they aren’t those hitters. Outside of Mar/Apr Rizzo was good to great (.980, .780, .870, 1.00+, .840, OPS by month after Mar/APR sure that’s a little streaky but it’s between being a streaky good to great hitter) . Almora was just used too much against RHP and needs to be a strict platoon guy, Baez probably isn’t this but he’s at least a ~30 HR SS moving forward even if he hits .250 that has value, Willy is going to be fine and was good most of the year until the innings killed him and I’m sure he was dealing with injuries they need to cut his games back by ~20 or so next year he was the same hitter as last year just the power was gone which maybe it doesn’t come all the way back but there’s more than this years in him.

Most of this makes sense apart from Bote in the OF. If he isn't playing 3B or 2B, his value is close to nil. Bote is the guy you want as the backup infield guy, though I don't know what he'd be like at SS. Prob not good. He seems athletic enough to handle the OF and it would be nice if he could, especially when facing LHP. But yeah his defense is great at 3B so maybe KB goes to the OF there. I think Bote is athletic enough to handle the OF though, even some CF. He probably can be emergency SS but we don’t want him being the planned backup from day 1. Get Mercer or Escobar.

This is pretty much my ideal offseason. Ultimately end up keeping everyone and bringing them back with Bryce, UTL IF (non-tender Tommy), a real backup C and maybe 1 pitcher addition either a SP (Hamels and bump Monty and Smyly to pen) or RP (Chavez, or any other of the the guys that won’t cost a ton but are good options since it’s a loaded class).

6-7+ WAR Bryant can mask a ton of things though. This overall unit is still capable of being elite, we saw that for a good chunk of the season this year. Add Bryce and it’s a behemoth. I think it’s far more likely we see up to beginning of August numbers (or whatever the drop off date was UMFAN posted) from all these guys next year for the year than these last ~40 games being long term indicators of suckage.

We need a guy who can put the bat on the ball in clutch situations (to move runners over, to hit a sacrifice fly, etc.). I'm tired of watching batter after batter swing for the fences and then strike out with men in scoring position. We have too many all-or-nothing hitters. I'm tired of this constant complaint at the end of every Cubs season. A certain segment of the audience always claims the thing the Cubs need is fewer all or nothing hitters and more contact guys. It’s literally been the complaint of every team that made the playoffs and didn’t win the WS going back to 2008 (that’s the first real team I followed being online). Like literally every team had the same complaint/articles written.

I don’t know how you would entirely make it work from a roster construction stand point but I really would be interested in going with a 6-man rotation next year. Seems like it could be a way to help mitigate some innings and keep guys fresh. Though I guess all the SP got better once they had innings under the belt this year so who knows. But it would seem to help some guys with where they are at in age (Lester) and health (Darvish who might be on a bit of an innings limit).

I want Chavez back, give him a Duensing type deal to lower the LT hit.

Adding 1-2 guys to each unit and expecting some better health and bounce backs should do it. Granted one of those guys is Bryce horsefeathering Harper, but yeah. A lot of the answers probably are on the team, I’d guess.

Depending the other moves I’d think they’d want him to be in Iowa as the 7/8th starter depth option. But yeah his curve seems legit, his Fb in theory plays up in the pen. It’s not a bad idea.

Lowrie, Mercer, Marwin and Eduardo Escobar all seem like some logical targets. Profar would be a fun trade target too depending on what they try to do, he finally was healthy and figured it out this year but he’s already in arbitration I think and they might be rebuilding a bit.

Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

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That article as a whole was a lot of words of mostly garbage. He just did it for clicks. It’s the same type of doom boner season reflection article we’ve seen 3 of the last 4 years when they didn’t win the WS. We’re going to win 90+ and be a top NL team again next year but we’ll see articles like that saying otherwise all offseason. Also how does he know it wasn’t a hitter/pitcher looking at video of a hitter/pitcher on one of the ipads?

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/1047397626373660673?s=21

[tweet]https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/1047398817467916288[/tweet]

No horsefeathers. I legitimately feel bad for the guys this year. They battled their asses off all season and that this was the outcome. They didn’t even get a token on field WC/Division celebration. Such is life, hopefully they’re “more hungry” during the the offseason and during the season next year.

Absolutely. So many free agents want to come here now because of the culture he's built. The camaraderie and how close the players are in this clubhouse is special. I'm glad Jesse Chavez feels that way. Yup and sure it’s more than Joe, it’s the amenities, character of the players here and the FO’s doings as well but they’ve trusted Joe to guide and oversee it all. The wrong manager with all this still could make it a spot guys don’t want to be.