Cubswin11

I've bee reading people saying the Yankees were going to sign him since he was in high school, I refuse to let it happen. he even said it himself!* *when he was 16 Then his BFF went to the Cubs and he named his dog Wrigley.

They’re starting Chacin on short rest tomorrow too

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The nice thing is that Gray really doesn't need to be fixed. His stat line screams outlier luck on ERA. Yeah there isn’t really fixing. He never had a Chatwood walk problem, he’s put up a legitimately good season without having to squint at the peripherals or underlying things to see it (like spin rates, road starts, etc). I also want to say this year, in terms of the era, their shitty bullpen allowed a ton of his runs to score. I thought I remember hearing that when they sent him down and he had a sub 3 FIP/xFIP and nobody could figure out why they did that.

The Rockies are really dumb too, maybe we could convince them or they already connived themselves Almora is DJ Wittenmyer 2.0 and that's all it would roughly take for Gray.

Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful. Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say. It's helpful to look at multiple years too, occasionally you have big swings and looking at a longer time horizon helps shape the reality of what you're seeing. I mentioned them in my original post, but Mathis and Maldonado are both consistently very strong framers so they can at least satisfy that end, because they are both abominable hitters. In my initial FA looks the last few weeks I completely forgot about Maldonado. Doing to look at it today I think he’s really clearly my #1 target for the role if they look to upgrade. I like him a ton for the role.

Not to derail the catcher talk, because it’s a good conversation. But the Rockies left Gray off the playoff roster and dicked around with him this year, if he’s healthy and they soured on him I hope we are all over him. Happ++ for him would be ideal, could even see a scenario where him for Q and some other stuff either or both ways makes sense.

Looks like Mathis(1), Grandal(2), and Maldonado(8). Austin Hedges(10), could probably be had in trade without it being painful. Also. I find it funny that Alex Avila is on the positive side of the ledger, after being horrific last year. I think this stuff is generally directionally correct, but IMO the magnitude is probably ~half of what the numbers say. I like Hedges in a trade. San Diego might be a possible destination for Russell. Galvis is a FA so they have a black hole at SS and AJ Preller seems like the type of guy that wouldn't care about the DV suspension. Russell, + for Hedges? Happ, Russell, Maples or Caratini and Duensing for Hedges and Kirby Yates, who says no?

-Jeff Mathis ranks #1 and is a FA, he's going to be 36 next year and he can't hit at all but he's always ranked positive and been near the top the last few years. You'd have to be certain the framing/defense is elite because the offense is awful. Can't imagine he costs more than $2 million. -Grandal is 2, but that's most likely not happening. -Martin Maldonado is 8th, has always been positive going back ~5 years and near the top. He's not a great hitter but good enough for a backup who has great defense/framing, he'd be my #1 target but he's close enough to being a starter or platoon guy and someone probably gives him a better opportunity and more money than we'd want to spend if there are LT concerns. But if we have the FU offseason he'd be the guy. -Ellis and Lucroy both rated awful this year but have had elite seasons in the past, Ellis is almost 40 though but wouldn't cost much. Lucroy has been bad the last two but really good the years before at framing/defense and he's not that old so idk what happened. Probably worth checking in to both by the FO nerds. -Rivera rated poorly this year but was hurt and didn't play much, he was a slight negative in 2017 but has rated out well in the past and was here last year for a bit. He's 35/36 so maybe he's just done but he's probably worth a check in to as well. -Russell Martin and Austin Hedges both rated well this year and in past years. I think both could be had in trades for not much.

I get that and it definitely is a luxury, it’s not so much if the back up hitter not hitting hurts us we have other problems it’s if the backup catcher can’t hit or play defense or frame then what the horsefeathers is he doing here?!? To give the starting guy extra time off. That's just the situation they've found themselves in. They don't need to be weakening an area of strength (lots of money to spend on players that are going to require lots of money) to strengthen an area of far less critical need. Finding a little bit better backup I feel is still a little critical. Finding a veteran could help Willy’s growth and a guy with some sort of plus skill helps the team more than throwing Caratini out there with no plus skills to speak of (when we know the spot is going to get ~15 more games this year). Also I have it kinda figured (in my planned offseason brain) a team probably likes Caratini enough they’d take him as a sweetener to take on Duensing/Kintzler (something like Vic, Maples, Duensing/Kintzler for a lottery ticket or post hype prospect) and the money you net there gets you the backup upgrade and still saves some money.

Yeah, I just don’t see it. We’ve heard he’s gonna get moved every offseason since 2015. Whatever his return would be likely could be had for not a ton of money in free agency.

I get that and it definitely is a luxury, it’s not so much if the back up catcher not hitting hurts us we have other problems it’s if the backup catcher can’t hit or play defense or frame then what the horsefeathers is he doing here?!?

Caratini is like really bad though. He had 200 PAs, 50 catchers reached that, he ranked 41st in WAR amongst them, he was 37th in BB rate, 31st in K rate, 33rd in OBP, 43rd in SLG, 41st in wOBA, 40th in wRC+, 48th In DEF WAR, he ranked poorly in framing metrics too. He isn’t good. I get it he’s the back up, like you said this guy isn’t going to be that good and have a flaw(s). But Caratini is bad, I want the backup catcher to at least be able to hit a little if he sucks on defense or be an elite defender/framer if he can’t hit and Caratini is none of those. There’s room for a backup upgrade here and it will make a difference. I think we all want Willy to play a little less to stay more fresh so I want a better option than Vic back there. A guy who frames well is probably what I prefer because hopefully he could help Willy with it and it helps the pitchers the most. Maybe we also could get a team to dream on Vic being a thing as a switch hitter and could use him to attach to like Duensing or Kintzler (if the option is picked up) to dump that money.

I don't know if any of the guys left over from 2016 would even bother showing up to spring training, they'd probably all hold out and demand a trade.

2011 he had some shoulder thing and kept trying to play through it. Finally gave up and said he'd come back when he was 100 percent. Chipper Jones called him a baby so he came back and struggled all year. Bounced back the next year even though the swing was changed and then the next year the head shot happened. Got it. I still don’t remember anyone bringing it up (on here or in the media) during his FA year that it was a concern long term or changed him but yeah. I just mostly remember the concern was “his swing needs a lot of maintenance” or something like that.

I don’t ever remember hearing about a shoulder injury with Heyward or it being a well known thing when he was a FA or that people thought it was a long term thing to worry about. The only injuries I remember him having were getting hit in the wrist and face.

Defensively? Probably average to above average but not elite like Russell. Offensively I have no idea what to predict other than 30ish HRs. This isn't the first time that Tom has talked about someone playing SS like it has an impact on how they perform offensively, and I don't get it at all. Yeah I don’t get that at all either. The only time a position should ever be an offensive factor is if a guy is moving on or off of catcher because of the wear and tear.

I can’t see them making that many trades. And some of those guys like Heyward and Morrow it’s not even worth it. Better off holding on to Morrow and hoping the health is better and he’s used better than whatever we’d get back and Heyward would take something really good to attach or a ton of money paid and I just don’t see that being really worth it. The rest I’m fine with moving and maybe Caratini is enough to attach to Duensing for someone to take the money. Hopefully Kintzler opts out and Chatwood has to be unmovable. Russell is def gone in some way.

Defensively? Probably average to above average but not elite like Russell. Offensively I have no idea what to predict other than 30ish HRs.

Javy had the better year on a whole. I’m not arguing that. I was just saying Harper did a lot of things better offensively and was assuming that’s more what was meant. he flatly said harper would have been the best player on the cubs this season, and then you said harper was better at "everything but BA, SLG, and defense", which is an incredibly pointless statement. i ask again, da fuq are you guys talking about? I was answering your question on “how was he better than Baez” with my response and only assuming that was the intent of the original comment. But Raw will have to answer for what he meant or how he wants to back it up. I don’t necessarily agree with it either.

The smartass answer is he’s worth whatever the market says but somewhere around ~$35 aav for 8-12 years seems right. He was better than Javy at everything but BA, SLG and defense. he didn't say harper was better offensively, he just said that he would have been the best player on the cubs this season. he obviously was not a better player than baez this season. da fuq are you guys talking about Javy had the better year on a whole. I’m not arguing that. I was just saying Harper did a lot of things better offensively and was assuming that’s more what was meant.

That he's really good. And his "down" year would have still made him the best player on a Cubs team that has a top 3 MVP candidate? it's a question about how much he's worth and what the cubs should give him. but how was he better than baez this season? The smartass answer is he’s worth whatever the market says but somewhere around ~$35 aav for 8-12 years seems right. He was better than Javy at everything but BA, SLG and defense.

Right, he definitely was a little unlucky too. His BABIP is like .320 for his career and all his underlying batted ball numbers were in line with his career too and he even did things better..... His LD% was up 1% over career average, GB Rate was the 2nd lowest of his career, FB rate right at his average, infield flyball percentage easily at a career low (over 3% lower than career average and 2% better than any other year), he pulled the ball and went oppo a bit more at expense of up the middle compared to career average, set a career low in soft contact% (over 2.5% down from career average), his med% contact was down but that’s because it was all made up for in a career high in hard contact% (6.5% above his career rate too). He’s horsefeathering good and had a good year.

His overall WAR was dragged down a bit by the defense rating poorly but I think that’s partially due to him holding back a bit to not hurt himself diving/running in to a wall/etc (especially once the Nats were done) and he also was playing CF a lot where he’s more an emergency guy there than everyday guy there. He isn’t Heyward on defense but he also isn’t that bad. He had the 2nd best BB% in MLB, 15th in wOBA, 16th in wRC+, and 17th in Dongs (2nd highest total in his career) in a “down year.” He’s really good and does things we really need to help cure and permanent chili ball damage/injuries next year.

He talked about some players having mental hurdles they weren't able to overcome. That made me think of Chatwood and Edwards. Carl was just hurt mostly I think. He was awesome before the shoulder injury (his BB numbers were down a good amount, iirc, and everything else looked great). He wasn’t the same when he came back, his stuff was not nearly as good and he probably had to adjust things because then he got hurt again with a different injury to compensate for the shoulder injury.