CubsWin

Who knows? They may love the guy for saving them the embarrassment of wasting 2.1 million dollars of the Padres money on a guy who would've been a bust due to injury. 8-) That said, I doubt anybody puts up decent money for Karsten with a dreaded shoulder injury. The track record of coming back from those is not great.

Nice. Hope that's accurate.

3 days, 17 hours and counting until pitchers and catchers report.

Another guy who makes my extremely unlikely dream of Manaea and Whitson slightly more probable. Or my unlikely dream of getting Manaea and a prep catcher worthy of the Cubs 2nd rounder.

Can we just combine Raley, Rusin, Jokisch and Kirk into one guy with 4 chances of making it to the big leagues? Of that group, I think Raley right now is the best and Kirk the worst, but the difference between them is far from vast...

Trey Martin, Ryan McNeil and then.....uh...okay...Jose Arias, no, Taylor Scott...wait, I got it, Carlos Penalver...eh, flip a coin. Does anybody have a three-sided coin? Fangraphs has Trey Martin at 15, Jim Callis has him at 30 and John Sickels mentioned him in the others category on his top 20 list. He has one of if not the highest upside of anyone left. He is graded as an athletic CFer who can stick at that premium position with one scout saying he was a major league CFer defensively right now at the age of 19 and he can hit some. Ryan McNeil was the Cubs 3rd round pick last year and just turned 19 a few days ago. Sickels ranks him a C+ prospect, the same grade as Paul Blackburn, Ben Wells and Michael Jensen. Jose Arias pitched well in Boise last year, has a good mid-90s heater and dominated Dodgers prospects and instructs this year. Taylor Scott pitched better for Boise last season, is a 5th round draft pick and is a year and a half younger. Carlos Penalver has the ability to stick at a premium position (SS), can hit decently and won't turn 19 until mid-May. I went with Penalver, but obviously I'm open to having my mind changed.

True. Just maybe a little less weak. I agree with the BPA rule in general, but I don't think it's a terrible thing to address a system's weaknesses especially if it's catching. Good young catchers who can hit and defend are rare and that gives a team a huge advantage when they have one. The price of trading for one is very high. You are going to have to overpay. They are non-existent on the FA market. You can always try to move a player over to catcher like they tried with Stephen Bruno. Castillo was a former infielder. But outside of that and signing one as an IFA, your only shot of getting this huge advantage over other teams is to find one in the draft. Granted, the safest bets to getting a good one is by taking them high up in the 1st round (Wieters, Zunino). But short of that, if you've got the 40th pick and the BPA is ranked 37th on your board but there is a catcher ranked nearby, I'd have to look long and hard at taking that catcher. They are the hardest to find. And if there happens to be a draft that is deep in talented prep catchers, I wouldn't mind taking two of them in the appropriate upper rounds. Even if the system didn't have a weakness at catcher.

It'll be interesting to see how we would go about ranking Conway. I definitely think he is deserving of being in the mix, but I don't even know when he'll be throwing again. And given Carlos Penalver's ability to play SS well, his youth and decent stick, he would be in my top 35. Dude won't turn 19 until mid-May. Raley's got to be up there as well. I continue to be amazed at how deep this organization is right now. So many guys who either have a good floor and decent chance to contribute in the bigs like Raley, Watkins, possibly Bruno. Lots of guys with a good ceiling but less of a shot of getting there like Wang, DeVoss, Austin Reed. And then guys that are talented but still too raw to really know what they are yet like Dunston, Gretzky, Martin and Penalver. I can't remember it ever being like this. Or is it that I'm an optimist by nature and know more about the Cubs prospects than ever before? Probably a little bit of both. Regardless, this is fun.

I think there is a likelihood that Scott Baker will start the year on the DL and one of Takahashi, Rusin or Raley will be in the pen to start the year. I think Casey Coleman has been released but hasn't signed with anyone yet. Beeler will probably start in AA, and Loux will start in AAA. Chang Yong-Lim will start on the DL but when he's ready will do most of his relieving for Iowa. I wouldn't put Dontrelle in the unknown column, he's going to be coming out of the pen. And keep in mind that a lot of the invitees to camp like Carpenter, Wade, Lewis may choose not to go to AAA and will be released opening up roster spots for some of these other guys. Loux will likely start in AAA as will Jokisch. Castillo was just DFA'd. We'll see if he makes it through waivers. There's a good shot Schlitter starts the year in AAA. I don't think Hayden Simpson is a starter anymore. He may come out of the pen at this level though. You can put Jose Rosario in his place in the rotation. Wallach is on the bubble big time. He needs a good spring to stick around. Wang could still compete for the rotation despite his good showing out of the pen late last season. It's dependent on how he performs this spring, as it is with a lot of these guys, but I think Cervenka's got a good shot at starting at AA, and given that Lorick and Burke are/will be 25 and logged decent innings at Daytona last year, it's probable that they begin in AA, too. At this level, it starts to become tricky. So much depends on how they perform during spring training. I see Rosario starting in A+. Paniagua and Johnson each have a chance to start there, too, with strong springs. Also with a strong spring, I put Dillon Maples in the Cougars rotation. Suarez will likely start in the A+ bullpen. Pugliese has got pretty good stuff and could break with Kane County as well. Keep your eye on Josh Conway from this group. If he returns from surgery well, he could move up quickly. I'm hoping one of Underwood, Blackburn, McNeil and Lang will start the year in A ball. My guess is Lang or Blackburn. Again, it's nearly impossible to predict who will be cut in spring training because that's why they have it. The levels players start out at is also predicated on how well they play in the spring especially guys at A+ and up. One thing is clear, though, there will be guys released and others who start the year in extended spring training due to injury or to work on a specific part of their game that would otherwise be at one of the higher levels. It's so difficult to predict who and where that the fun for me is to sit back, read the reports, scour the stats and see who emerges. I'm as excited for this year's crop of minor leaguers as I've ever been. This should be fun.

Yeah, if you have a good enough CFer, and RFer for that matter, you can get by a lot easier with an average to below average LFer. If both Almora and Soler develop as expected, they will have exactly that.

I am not a student of our farm system. I just read stuff here and some BA, BP and FG stuff. I like Vogelbach, but kind of assumed he would end up being trade bait unless Rizzo flames out. It seems that his body type/skill set would not make him a good choice for LF even if he can really bring a lot of power. I am more than hopeful that I am wrong about this. I understand that you mention that the FO is willing to be below average in LF defense, but it seems Vogelbach would be a stretch to just be below average. That's how I felt about Vogelbach too until Hyde made these comments at the Cubs Convention. He has dropped quite a bit of weight, so who knows. He's got time to work his way there. If he wants to play for the Cubs bad enough, he will likely have to be able to passable in LF. If not, his dropped weight can only help him defend 1B and raise his trade value. Hyde did call him athletic. One thing is for sure, he's got to continue to hit if wants any chance to make the bigs. Everything I've read from scouts is that his bat is "special". We'll see...

Yep. I feel for the Mets here and think it should be protected, but I'm pretty sure it won't be. Why would you feel for the Mets? You have to be in the top 10 and they are 11th so what do they have to complain about other than being really close to having had the pick be protected. And why "should" it be protected if the CBA specifically states it won't and was written for a purpose in a way to change the previous rule where it would have been. If anything it is doing the Mets a favor by pushing them toward not signing a guy who they probably really shouldn't be spending a lot of money on anyway considering the current state of their team. They finished with the 10th worst record but got bumped to 11th when the Pirates failed to sign Appel and received the 9th pick in this year's draft. I think that part of the CBA might be adjusted in the near future. That said, I don't care one whip what happens to the Mets...

If true, I think its Chisenhall and he fills out 1B/3B bench and starter vs LHP role. Anyone else of "note" they may be after? If the return is Chisenhall, the Cubs would likely have to include Valbuena because I doubt the Indians want Mark Reynolds playing 3B. He's a butcher at third but played pretty well at 1B last season which is where they signed him to play. And after Chisenhall, they don't have much at third, just Mike Aviles and no one good in AAA. The Cubs might also want to include a 3rd player in the deal because they need to clear 2 spots on the 40-man and Chisenhall would be placed on the 40-man for sure. We have heard that Lake and Watkins were being discussed in trade talks earlier. Complete speculation, of course, but Soriano, Valbuena, Lake/Watkins/possibly Vitters (or one of many pitchers on the 40-man) and cash for Chisenhall and two younger prospects that wouldn't have to be put on the 40-man. Of the younger prospects that are trade eligible, I would be interested in C - Alex Monsalve, RHP - Dillon Howard, OF - Anthony Santander, OF - Luigi Rodriguez, SS/3B - Ronny Rodriguez and LHP - Luis Lugo. There are other possibilities as well. Some players from the 2012 draft class could be traded as PTBNL, though that is a little unorthodox given the amount of time the Cubs would have to wait before they could be officially sent over. Davell mentioned that the Indians competitive compensation 2nd round draft pick can't be traded during the off-season, but might be able to be included as some sort of PTBNL. That said, the rumor could fall through and all of this speculation would have been for naught...

Thanks, craig. I agree. I would be shocked if the Cubs took a catcher in the first round in the upcoming draft. Reese McGuire, Jonathan Denney and Jeremy Martinez would have to explode in their senior seasons to even be considered at #2. 2nd round was my target. If one of those can fall, and there are some other prep catchers beyond those three, to the 2nd or 3rd round, that would be great. I don't think the Cubs would hesitate to wait until the 3rd round to take their first pitcher if the draft fell that way. But at some point in the first 10 rounds they will take several pitchers in a row. Despite what all the data shows me, I, selfishly, still want them to take a pitcher with the #2 pick. That's why I'm not GM. And, yes, the more I think about it, I understated the importance of finding good catchers. It isn't on par with finding a SS. It's harder. Much harder. I'd like to add Neftali Rosario to my list of catching prospects worth watching. The word is defensively he has all the tools. His stick has pop, but also a long way to go. And he years away from approaching AA/AAA as would any prep catcher the Cubs would take in the draft. So I agree about the cupboard being bare at catcher. Krist, Marra and Rosario are all long shots so the Cubs really do need Castillo to be good.

Is anybody familiar with Dan Kirby or follow him on twitter? It's a solid article except for the following sentence makes me wonder how closely he follows this stuff. He seems good, it's probably just an oversight... I realize he was signed by the D-backs and the contract was nullified so I can understand where he got that, but none of the reports on Paniagua's signing with the Cubs made this mistake. It was clear that he was signed as a free agent and his contract counted against the IFA spending cap. No one mistakenly reported that he had been traded for. Again, it's probably just an oversight. He's seems knowledgeable.

There certainly other ways to get a catcher, but a good one? Getting a good catcher is on par with getting a good SS. Once you get one you like, you tend to hang on to them through their primes. Plus, the position is so physically taxing, that a catcher's window to perform at their peak is shorter than other positions. This puts a premium on being able to draft/IFA sign and develop good catchers. I agree the Cubs will look to add pitchers in volume in the first 10 rounds again this year. But the only reason the Cubs would take a position player #2 overall is if he is clearly the best player available. And I don't think that principle is in place just for the first round, meaning if the Cubs pick comes up in rounds 2-10 and a catcher or another position player is clearly the best player available, they'll take him and wait on adding an arm until later. Case in point, based on the interviews afterward, I don't think the Cubs were targeting an infielder, but when Stephen Bruno was still there in the 7th round, they had to take him. So even if they go with Meadows or Frazier or whoever else distinguishes themselves with their first pick, they could still take one of the prep catchers if he is regarded as the BPA. And while I think organizational need is a factor in their decision making, so is positional importance and catcher is one of the most important, if not the most important position on the field.

Jensen, Martin, McNutt. Jensen's numbers from last season (especially his 7.5 H/9) as an age appropriate starter in A ball speak for themselves. Add in a decent scouting report of low 90s fastball, solid breaking ball and above average control, and I'm voting for him for 28th. I like Martin's upside a lot. The early reports are that he can play a major league CF right now. He hit well as a 19 year old in short season Boise. He'll be a year young for Kane County this year when we should find out more. His athleticism seems unquestioned. He's my 29th best. McNutt could be Alberto Cabrera. He could contribute to the pen this year (more likely next) and then be stretched out after achieving some success as a reliever. In 2015, he'll still be just 25 years old. It's a long shot, but we're talking about the 30th best prospect. I can understand considering Ha. The problem for me is that his ceiling is probably 4th OFer. He is pretty likely to reach it though, at least be a serviceable 5th OFer. So he is worth looking at here, but I'm a upside guy. Each one of these guys has a higher ceiling than Ha, so I'm leaving him off my top 30.

Your right, this is a fun game... If what Hyde mused at the convention comes to pass, Vogelbach is the clear choice here. Of course, he still has to continue to produce at the higher levels, but since we are projecting anyway, he tops the possibilities for me. With the FO's emphasis on defense, about the only position that will be allowed to be average or below would be LF. That would bring Candelario in as a possible LFer of the future. If both those guys fail to hit at the big league level, a free agent signing is the next most likely answer. The dearth of good options after Castillo has me hoping the Cubs land one of the highly touted high school catchers in the draft this year as well. There are a couple of prospects worth watching already in the fold in Chadd Krist and Justin Marra. A lot will be learned about Krist at Daytona this year. Marra is farther away and no matter how he performs next season wouldn't make BA's projected 2017 line-up. Another long shot is Stephen Bruno. I don't know if he is still trying on the tools of ignorance or if that experiment has ended, but if it's still going, I'm intrigued. I'm with you here. I love Candelario's mix of performance and youth, but he is a long way away and the early reports on his defense are less than stellar at third. I think it is far more likely that one of Baez or Castro move to third and one of the many middle infield prospects takes over second.

Sooooo that's how it is in that family. As said by Principal Ed Rooney.

Here's a January 20th article from Through The Fence looking at players the Cubs could be considering in the first three rounds. To my dismay, not one high school catcher is discussed.

The Lake and Watkins blurb does not surprise me as I thought we had heard there would be some prospect for prospect type dealers. Curious to see who Towers would have packaged with Upton. If it was Skaggs or someone along those lines I would have a tough time saying know. I would love to see what kind of arm they could get in exchange for Lake or Watkins or some package thereof.

Before Theo and company had a chance to revamp the organization, BA's projected 2015 line-up looked like this: Catcher - Geovany Soto First Base - Dan Vogelbach Second Base - Zeke DeVoss Third Base - Javier Baez Shortstop - Starlin Castro Left Field - Josh Vitters Center Field - Matt Szczur Right Field - Brett Jackson No. 1 Starter Matt Garza No. 2 Starter Andrew Cashner No. 3 Starter Trey McNutt No. 4 Starter Dillon Maples No. 5 Starter Dae-Eun Rhee Closer - Carlos Marmol After a year at the helm, here's the roster BA projects for 2016: Catcher - Welington Castillo First Base - Anthony Rizzo Second Base - Starlin Castro Third Base - Jeimer Candelario Shortstop - Javier Baez Left Field - Brett Jackson Center Field - Albert Almora Right Field - Jorge Soler No. 1 Starter Jeff Samardzija No. 2 Starter Matt Garza No. 3 Starter Arodys Vizcaino No. 4 Starter Edwin Jackson No. 5 Starter Pierce Johnson Closer - Juan Carlos Paniagua 3/5ths of the rotation (4/5ths if you credited the FO for the successful transition of Samardzija from reliever to TOR starter), 2/3rds of the OF, their closer and a cornerstone 1B in one year. What will year two bring...?

Time well spent. One of the best baseball articles I've read in a long time. Ingenious.

I do, too, but I hope he has adequate security. No Villanueva move announcement today, per Muskat. I tweeted Bruce there's not enough police inside facility to handle riot for Campana DFA announcement, he responded "you got it". One of the insider-types over at PSD was saying that the Cubs had been in talks on trading either Lake or Watkins pretty hard this past week. Looks like they're trying to add Villanueva without DFAing anyone...

http://wiklifield.thecubreporter.com/w/images/thumb/e/e0/DanVogelbach.jpg/250px-DanVogelbach.jpghttp://www.bleachernation.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/dan-vogelbach-cubs-300x295.pnghttp://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/idahopress.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/e7/ee7c6bbc-e44f-11e1-b9b0-001a4bcf887a/50275c565cdcf.preview-300.jpg From these photos, you can see some progression of weight loss. Maybe it's just the angle, but the guy in the twitter photo taken a month ago looks quite a bit thinner to me than any of the above photos.. https://twitter.com/svoges24/status/283365011605311488/photo/1