CubsWin

There are different levels of flawed though. He didn't even make that list on this site that went to 50, and the guys at the back end aren't going anywhere. He wasn't even getting voted on. He got some money, but that was from the previous management group during a period when they were just throwing money at people to make up for lost opportunities. If a guy can't crack a top 50 list for his organization, as a 21-year old after 2 years as a pro, then he's well off the radar of having a meaningful prospect status on him. It's a stretch to compare ignoring him to ignoring everybody past the top 3-5 actual prospects. It's a stretch to say that Shoulders had 2 years as a pro at the time we at NSBB voted on our top 50 prospects. Unless you call 32 ABs a "year". He signed August 12th and got into 8 games in 2011. So what the voters had to go on was one full year of short-season ball in the NWL as a 20-year-old. Are players to be written off as prospects at the age of 20? After just one season? 21 is age appropriate for the MWL. If Rock continues to produce like he has so far, I would hazard a guess that he'll be higher in mid-season rankings. Yes, he's limited, and he'll have to beat heavy odds in order to have a successful major league career, but the same could be said for a lot of guys in the minors that are worth monitoring.

Based on what? Baez? Soler's been very good and Almora and Vizcaino have yet to play. Vogelbach and Shoulders have been very impressive. Anything from Vitters or Jackson is gravy as far as I'm concerned, and most of the other relevant prospects havn't done anything eye popping but have been pretty solid. Yes, based on Baez. And I guess we have different definitions of "very good" and "very impressive". Because i don't think Soler has been "very" good, or Vogelbach "very" impressive. I was also including Almora's broken hand and Vizcaino having yet to throw a pitch as reasons for the [expletive] season so far. Like I said, it's still a small sample size but it'd be nice to have a strong week or two to get excited about. Well, then you think wrong. Maybe so. My point is there just hasn't been a whole lot to get excited about so far this year. Still a lot of season left, but I was hoping for more early. I feel you. This season has taken a lot of patience so far. But good things are coming. Namely, Almora and Vizcaino. Junior Lake should be returning to action fairly soon as well. Vitters and Jackson are back healthy. Paniagua will be allowed in the country at some point. Maples is finally in Kane County. Alberto Cabrera is having his best season as a starter since 2010. Good things are coming.

I'm pretty sure they have, although I can't find any quotes. That said, if they use him strictly in the pen this year, it won't surprise me obviously. In fact, I think that may have been a quote from Hoyer at one point, that they want him to be ready to start in 2014. That was my memory, that they were shooting 2014. Even then he wouldn't be ready for a full season (180-200 innings). If all goes well with his health, and that a big if with him, he might still be limited to 160 or so innings in 2015. Of course, he may not be used as a starter at all. My hope is he can get stretched out in Iowa starting in early June. Get up to around 50-70 innings of work in by the trading deadline and then be brought up if performance and the Cubs roster situation warrants it. He would likely start in the bullpen with a start or two late in September. He's never pitched more than 97 innings in one season. I doubt they would want to him do too much too soon.

Turns out it was just the writer's guess. :roll:

Um, Alcantara just drove in the winning run for the Smokies.

After the draft, the controversy involving Baez may be whether he's in our top 5. Hot streak here we come! Thank you, Kyle. You do a great service to all Cubs fans. I don't want you to waste your mojo, but when you feel rested, could you lament Alcantara at some point. The Cubs could really use him as trade bait.

Bleacher Report, quite possibly the worst place for accurate baseball information, is reporting that Almora will start the year in Boise this season even though he is already playing in EXST games, played well in the NWL last season and Boise doesn't start games for another month. Has anyone else heard this or they just wrong...again?

As always when I use my power, you're welcome guys. I was going to comment on how cold Alcantara has gone, but perhaps you should do it instead.

I'm starting to lean the same way. Of course, there is the fact that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, but...

The VSL Cubs season is off to a rousing start with a 22-11 loss to the Rays. Man, Andrew Friedman's good...

If BA did a top 100 right now, you'd have to think that Soler would be in the top 30, maybe even top 20, and would have surpassed Baez as the Cubs top prospect.

I'll take either one. They both elevate the chances of the Cubs winning it all in a five year window of 2015-19.

I think there is a big enough difference between Appel and Gray to make Appel the clear winner. Appel's longer history of performance at a high level, he's got a third above average pitch. His velo is a couple ticks below Gray's but still 95+. He's closer to major league ready as a starter than Gray. I want Appel. That said, Gray is a great fallback, I wouldn't complain, though I would be slightly disappointed.

I agree. That comp pick would be an awesome return. I'd even be willing to add to DeJesus to get it. Kyle Smith wouldn't be enough. Smith and Elier Hernandez, sure. Cam Gallagher straight up? I'd do it. I'd love to see a move happen before the draft regardless.

If by "young core" (sorry Kyle...) you mean major league players, I don't see it. One of the reasons why Stanton would be traded is that the Marlins don't really have any other good major leaguers to go with him. You certainly could be right, but Miami's situation strikes me as they would want to build via high quality prospects to go along with Fernandez, Yelich, Marisnick, Heaney, etc. The idea would be to turn Stanton into several young high quality assets. If they're asking for Rizzo or Castro or Shark, they're not going to get more than one and I doubt the Cubs would then also include one of Baez/Soler/Almora. It would be one of those guys plus some good, not great, prospects. But if I were them, I'd want to take a chance at getting two or three great players by going young and taking on the risk that they may not turn out. Risks on players like Baez, Pierce Johnson/Duane Underwood, tradeable assets like Vogelbach or Alcantara, possibly add in Junior Lake or Ben Wells. If two or more of those guys develop as expected, they've improved themselves. If some team is willing to give them two under-25 all-star caliber major leaguers for Stanton, then god bless em.

Exactly. Baez's start, good or bad, would not affect his value in a potential trade that's going to happen months from now. It's possible Stanton gets traded around the deadline, but I expect Price won't go anywhere until after this season.

Is that really a debate? My point exactly. For me, it's not much of one...

For me, this debate comes down to one question. Would you rather greatly improve the Cubs chances of competing in 2014-2017 or more greatly improve their chances of competing in 2015-2019? TT makes a great argument for Headley's value, despite the fact he is rapidly approaching a period of decline, albeit a gradual one. The most compelling stat for me was his road splits. His career numbers away from Petco are .302/.371/.465. That's good. And I love the fact that he is a switch hitter who can provide a strong left-handed bat. However, Headley is still a player who only has one full season with a SLG% over .400. He is off to a hot start this season, and if his current production continues throughout the next several months, I will feel more comfortable giving up meaningful prospects for him. I would prefer to use those meaningful prospects in a package for Price or Stanton. If I'm going to give up Baez, I want to get someone who is young enough to fit in with the progression arcs of Rizzo, Castro, Castillo, Soler and Almora. Because the Cubs have the opportunity to draft a TOR arm with the 2nd pick, have already assembled a decent rotation without Garza (and still have the ability to extend him), I lean towards focusing on Stanton. He'll be 23 all season. That fits right in with the young core the Cubs already have. He doesn't hit FA until after the 2016 season. With a potential OF of Stanton, Almora and Soler, Castro at SS, Rizzo at 1B and Castillo behind the plate, the Cubs could afford to go heavy on defense at 2B and 3B and be just fine. The Cubs already have a solid defensive 3B who hits from the left side (and hitting well right now) in Luis Valbuena who will be 27 all year. One drawback is that Stanton is right-handed and wouldn't provide any balance amongst Castro, Soler, Almora and Castillo, but that is a rather minor concern. In 2015, the first year I can see the Cubs realistically competing for a championship, Rizzo, Castro and Stanton will all be 25. Castillo will be 28, and Soler will be 23 and likely ready or close to ready for the bigs. Almora will be 21 and likely a year away. BJax will be 26 and likely a decent, left-handed bat place-holder. All of those players will be younger than the average peak years of 29-30. Price is 27 until late August. He hits free agency after the 2015 season. Tampa's financial restrictions and Price's current cost (just over 10 million) make his two more years of control almost irrelevant. After this season, Price will become very expensive and perhaps too expensive for the Rays to retain. That will give teams bidding for him more leverage than if they were trading for Stanton. A potential rotation of Price, Samardzija, Appel/Gray, Wood and EJax with Vizcaino either in the wings or closing can get you to the World Series. In 2015, Price will be 29, Samardzija a low-mileage 30 year old. Wood will be 28, Jackson 31, and Appel/Gray will be 23. Vizcaino will be 24. Only Jackson would be past his peak, if only by a year, but would likely be the 4th or 5th best starter amongst that group. That rotation would have lefty/righty balance and would just have to stay healthy to be top 5 for a few years after that. A month into the 2015 season, Headley will be 31. That's not bad at all. Again, he would be a very good addition. But as Castro, Stanton, Rizzo and Soler will be hitting their peak years around 2018-19, he will be 34-35. Getting him still makes a lot of sense, but it seems to me less than ideal given the options of Stanton and Price. If Baez, Underwood/Pierce Johnson, Vogelbach, Barney and maybe one more like Lake or Alcantara can get me Stanton or Price while Baez, Barney plus two other minor prospects gets me Headley, I would much rather add the other prospects and go for the big kahuna that makes the run from 2015-2019 that much stronger.

In my opinion, Wood is better than Jokisch and they are quite different style pitchers. Wood has a decent FB, especially for a lefty. He can sit 91-93 on his four-seamer. Jokisch is much more of a crafty, control guy with I believe a FB that sits mostly in the high 80s. Wood was a 2nd round pick who reached AA as a 21 year old. Jokisch was an 11th rounder who is progressing through the system a little over a year behind Wood reaching AA when he was 22. Perhaps a more consistent Chris Rusin?

Who do you think will be the first meaningful Cubs prospect to be promoted this season due to performance and not injury? (I'm discounting AAA shuttle players like Sweeney or Lillibridge, organizational filler and relievers that are old for their level, etc.) There are normally corresponding promotions, so it likely won't be just one guy and it likely won't be for a month yet, but there are some pretty interesting story lines emerging. Matt Szczur will be 24 in July. He's repeating AA and has thus far shown the ability to take a walk, hit for a decent average and with some power. Jae-Hoon Ha will be 22 all season and is also repeating AA. He's also shown the growth in his approach the Cubs are looking for (13 BB/19 K) and would want to reward. John Andreoli turns 23 June 9th and is repeating High-A. With an April line of .319/.427/.385, he could fill the void left by Szczur or Ha. A chain reaction of promotions could happen if Pierce Johnson, Zach Cates and Eric Jokisch keep doing what they're doing. Jokisch, who will turn 24 nine days after Szczur, is repeating AA where he did well last year. Things appear to have finally clicked for Zach Cates since coming over in the Rizzo deal. He'll be 23 all season and this is his 2nd go around at High-A Daytona. Johnson turns 22 in 9 days and is showing early dominance in Low-A. Stephen Bruno will be age appropriate for Daytona all season and skipped Low-A on his way there, so it is less likely the Cubs would move him up early in the season, but if he keeps producing at his present clip (.354/.432/.462), the front office may have no choice. The infield is fairly set in Tennessee, but with Bruno's versatility, that may not matter. Who do you predict will be the first?

Maybe he just means he needs to stop thinking about it because he has no control over it. Well said, Zen Master.

Elite hit tool and ability to square up the ball. Not a lot of power. One "expert" recently thought he could hit 5-10 HRs in the future. That feels high to me. Decent defensive 2B but not a strength. Way young for his level which bodes well for his ability to continue to hit at AAA and the majors. Needed to up his walk rate and has done that so far this season. In fact, in a very small sample size, right now he has walked 7 times and struck out only once. Has a huge mole on his face.

Pretty interesting pitching day. Pierce Johnson is the hottest Cubs pitching prospect at the moment. Wells has had an up and down year thus far but has shown flashes. Loosen is off to a decent start in AA and Rusin is either great or terrible. I'll be watching.

Awesome.

This has been my feeling too for a while now. If I were Theo, I would want to trade for a top impact player because the chances of getting one via free agency is almost zero. And given their man crush on Almora, I don't see them dealing him. That leaves Soler and Baez and Soler fits the "Cubs Way" profile more than Baez does at the moment. As you said, that could change, though. I think a package of Baez, Pierce Johnson and others like Maples, Lake, Vogelbach (the Rays could use a DH) or Alcantara should be the foundation of a very compelling offer for either Stanton or Price. And the system would still have Almora, Soler, Vizcaino, Appel/Gray, Candelario, Villanueva, Underwood, all of the "others" listed above who aren't traded, the rest of the 2013 draft and more. Imagine a rotation of Price, Samardzija, Appel/Gray, Wood and Jackson with Vizcaino waiting in the wings or closing. Or a line-up featuring Stanton, Castro, Rizzo, Almora and Soler all in or entering their prime years. To me, making a trade like that makes too much sense. Question is, will the Rays and Marlins see it the same way...