cubsfan26

That makes no sense because Grabow had success the last two years, while Guzman spent a good amount of time on the DL over the last two years. So really it's not close at all. Look I'm all for following stats and everything. But we can't just say a guy sucks or will suck, when he didn't suck. Yes his high WHIP shows that there's a chance his success as been luck. But when a guy does it two years in a row. There becomes a point were you have to consider that the guy is one of those rare guys who gets good results even though he allows a good amount of base runners. Everything isn't always cut and dry in baseball. Sometimes things don't make sense, but it still works. There still is no perfect stat system or perfect way to predict a player performance for a reason. Put it this way, if Grabow has a simliar 2010 as he did in 08 and 09. Is it still luck? When does it not become luck?

Well we can't exactly expect Guzman to be healthy all season.

Those guys will be getting much bigger contracts then Grabow got. Shouse is a LH specialist not a full inning reliever like Grabow, and we already been there and done that with Cruz. I don't think taking him after a crap year is a good idea. The thing with Grabow is were not only getting a LH were also getting our set up guy to pitch the 7th and 8th inning . So if you bring in a guy like say Shouse then you still need to bring in someone to pitch in the 7th or 8th. I never said they shouldn't have waited. But there's no doubt in mind that they would had to pay a reliever a simliar contract or more then Grabow got. Especially if guys like Marshall and Gorzelanny are needed in the rotation or used as trade chips to add a outfielder or 2b.

Yeah but guys like Marshall and Gorzelanny might be needed as starters alot of this season. While guys like Stevens, Gaub and others might have pitched well in Triple A. It's still Triple A and plenty of relievers do well there and suck in the major leagues. If your a major league GM you need to add someone with a track record if you wanna improve your team. If the other guys work out thats great, but you still need to have something to count on. Grabow is overpaid but I have no problem bringing him back on a two year deal. Either will Cubs anybody else if he gets results like he did the last two seasons. Point is teams gotta take risks with relievers and won't stop needing to. Bullpens are just too important to teams these days, too count on young guys. GM's take the risk of going with young or cheap guys all the time and it fails, this is why they take risk with veteran relievers to improve right now. Because they are more likely to improve your team the next season then the young guys do. Also keep in mind a GM needs his team to improve right now, or he might not have a job by the end of the relievers contract. So thats why he has to add the player to improve the team right away. It kinda would though, especially if your going to trade Heilman. You basically got Marmol, and then Guzman but he can't really be counted on. So if you don't bring back Grabow, and say Guzman gets hurt like he has alot in his career. Then we would be left trusting guys like Gaub, Caridad, Stevens, Patton and whoever else in important spots. Especially since there's a decent chance that Marshall and Gorzelanny might be needed in the rotation. I agree that the Cubs should have waited it out more and shouldn't have paid him 7.5m. But there was no way they were gonna get Grabow or any good full inning reliever on a one year deal(unless it's for more then 4m). If the Cubs signed Grabow to something like 2y at 6m or so I would have been totally fine with it. So I don't like that the Cubs overpaid but I don't totally hate resigning him like most on here do. When it came to trading for Grabow people said it was bad to because he was lucky,and he ended up pitching very well for us.

Thats the reason that us on a message board wanna think. But I personally don't believe MLB GM's don't understand what us common fans can. These GM's are getting even more sources of info that we don't see and gotta deal with the pressure of having success right now. Obviously if you aren't expected to win or improve you can sit back and hope that you can find a guy out of nowhere to be successful. But when you need to have success and improve next season you need to go with players who had success in that role. For example if say Hendry decided to let Grabow and Heilman go and went with just young guys and the bullpen sucked he would be blamed. Especially if those veterans had success with the new teams they went to. So it's easy to sit back and make judgements on decisions they make, but you really don't know the situation until you are in there shoes. I think teams fully understand that relievers are risky and it's not a great idea to give them more then one year deals. But almost every team needs relief pitching really baqd and if a guy has success they wanna bring that success to there team. Which ends up driving up the price for some relievers.

We could hope but things aren't quite that easy most of the time. Thats why relievers keep getting paid after they have performed well. If a bunch of young guys who haven't had success were always just as good then relievers wouldn't still be getting decent size contracts. I think you mean thats what almost all teams do. You can't trust unproven guys for your whole bullpen, and need to have some guys with a good/decent track record. If any Triple A guy could give you a John Grabow era then he wouldn't be getting that money. I expect whatever reliever they bring in be on a one year deal for 1-2m though.

Sounds like a pretty good trade. I figured they would either keep Heilman or trade him for some prospects. Yeah I know everybody thinks Heilman sucks, and he did the last two years. But this guy had too much value around the league to just nontender. Because his stuff is still very good despite not getting very good results. I guess the Cubs will use the Heilman money to add another veteran reliever on a one year deal. Because I doubt they go with just Marmol, Grabow, Guzman and a bunch of young guys next year. When you consider how questionable Guzman health is.

Well the fact that it's a two year deal helps. Remember Howry and Eyre were pretty solid there first two years of the deal. As for Hawkins he sucked as the closer, but overall pitched pretty well. Maybe he did by only giving 2 years. Remember Howry, Eyre, Remlinger and Hawkins all got 3 year deals. If those were 2 year deals they might have worked out. Every team does it. Find me guys who have eras of 2.84 and 3.36 in over 70 innings each season and don't get at least 2 year deals? For me it's not really the 2 year deal that bugs me because any reliever who had success the last few seasons is gonna get that this offseason. It's the fact that they probably could have gotten him closer to 3m per year then 3.75m per year, if they wanted a little bit. But the Cubs needed another late inning reliever, especially with Guzman health history. So if it wasn't Grabow they were gonna have to pay somebody to do that. They can't go with all rookies, and journeyman pitchers who haven't had any success and hope it works out. They needed to add a guy who's pitched well when it comes to allowing runners to score and Grabow has done that.

It happens, but it doesn't happen alot. At some point it's not luck anymore. So say Grabow has simliar era's the next two seasons will it still be luck? Baseball is a weird game and sometimes the stats don't always make sense. I have learned that over the years and thats why I don't let some stats be the be all and end all of my opinion on players like alot of people do. 2.84 era and 3.36 era are pretty good results. The main thing is the guy doesn't let alot of runs score(his runners and other pitchers runners). Yes I understand that in most situations people call that luck and believe the luck will run out, but thats not always the case. I agree there inconsistent and I don't like long term contracts for relievers either. But in baseball these days most relievers end up with more then one year deals. Personally I don't think a 2 year deal is all that bad, because usually when deals for relievers get bad is when it goes to 3-4 years. For example Howry, Eyre and a few other guys were pretty solid the first few years of the deal. But by the third years they were way overpaid and not pitching well. Lets be realistic Grabow was going to get 2y and at least 6m from some team(probably a bunch of teams). Yes the Cubs paid him too much by adding that extra 1.5m in. I'm not saying I love the deal and believe the Cubs overpaid and could have gotten him for less. But thinking the Cubs could have resigned him at 1y 2-3m wasn't going to happen and unrealistic. Because Grabow isn't really a loogy and more of a full inning reliever(something that people aren't taking into account). I know the stat systems don't like Grabow numbers because of all that base runners allowed, but alot of teams and scouts do(obviously including the Cubs). ERA and a scouts eye is always going to be a important thing to these teams and averaging a era in the 3.20s in almost 160 innings over the last two years is gonna get a guy some decent money. Like I said before it doesn't make it ok that the Cubs overpaid and they probably should have waited out.

I don't see it that way and expect him to pitch full innings next year. I recall Lou using Grabow for full innings most of the time last season and rarely did he come in just to face one batter especially late in the year. I expect him to switch off with Guzman as the 8th inning set up guy depending on the situation. Grabow pitched in 72.1 innings in 75 games last year and 76 innings in 74 games in 08. So he's not really a LH specialist and hasn't been used that way the last few seasons.

The contract was a little more then I expected, but I figured he would be getting 2y and at least 6.5m from some team and if the Cubs wanted to resign him they would have to pay him in that range. Because a guy who has the era's Grabow had over the last two years in the amount of innings while pitching to both RH and LH is going to get paid at least 3m per year. I don't hate this move as much as most people on this board. Sure it's too much money, but I think Grabow is a solid pitcher and will do ok as our 8th inning set up guy next year. Yeah I know the stat systems don't like him because he allows too many base runners and doesn't strike out enough people. But from watching this guy pitch, he seems to pitch better with guys on base for whatever reason. So people might say he got lucky, but it's hard to get lucky too years in a row. Plus I believe his stats when coming into games with guys on base are pretty good to. Yeah it doesn't make alot of sense why he pitches better when trying to get out of jams but he does. If Grabow has another year when he pitches 70-80 innings, with a era in the 3-3.30 range again people won't mind this move much. Grabow pitches from the left side, but he's not really a LH specialist or a loogy. He's more of a full inning pitcher who can pitch to both RH and LH hitters. So I think that makes him a little more valueable in teams eyes then a lefty who comes in to face one or two hitters.

You can't say to the media that signing a guy was a mistake when he's still on the team. So he's gotta give the BS answers of saying stuff like he had a bad year and will rebound this year to show confidence in him.

Yeah I think that had alot to do with his struggles early in the season. Because over his last 26 starts, he did have a 3.34 era. As for his contract I know not everybody loves it. But if he pitches anywere close to the way he did this year he's by far worth the money. Plus when you look at what all the top free agent pitchers that signed big deals last offseason. Dempster contract has to be up there with one of the best signings right now. I'm sure the Braves(who were hot after Dempster) would love to have Dempster over Derek Lowe right now.

Probably guys like Gregg,Grabow, Marshall,Lee, Ramirez, Lilly, Guzman, Marmol, Wells, Theriot, Fox, Fontenot, Baker and other guys who are cheap or are good players with not alot of years on their contracts left. I doubt anybody claimed Miles with how horrible he's hit this year, or anybody claimed Soriano or Bradley with how poorly they played this year with alot of money left on their contracts.

From 1999-2003 Jacque Jones hit 291/332/797 with 85 HR and 323 RBI's. Rios from 2004-2009 has hit 285/335/786 with 81 HR's and 335 RBI's. Now I'm not saying Rios is Jacque Jones, but that just shows as a hitter he's not a 12m per year player. Sure with his defense if he was making 6-8m per year, over the next three years or so I would say it was a good deal. But 5 years at 60m for this guy is a huge gamble. The simple fact is if Rios was a free agent this offseason, there's no way he would get anything close to that contract. So it's currently a bad contract and a risky contract to take on long term. So unless Rios starts putting up numbers like he did in 07 or better year after year. The Chicago media is going to turn on this guy quick.

The White Sox just added a guy who's making 60m over the next 5 years who's been basically Jacque Jones at the plate the last two years. I don't care how good his defense is if he keeps hitting like that there's no way thats gonna be a good move. But if he can get back to hitting the way he did in 06-07, it will end up working out good for the Sox. But right now it's a pretty risky move and Williams usually doesn't do well with the big type moves. When he does is when he buys low on guys. Like adding Jermaine Dye in free agency cheap after he had a few off years, trading for Contreras when the Yankees gave up on him, trading for Thome and getting the Phillies to eat a bunch of his salary after a bad 05, finding Bobby Jenks off waivers and signing AJ Pierzynski when nobody wanted him. Then adding Alexi Ramirez/Taduahito Iguchi cheap when there wasn't alot of interest, and getting Gavin Floyd, Matt Thortnon and Carlos Quentin when their teams gave up on them. When he's done poorly is when he tries to make that big splash. Like trading for David Wells,Todd Ritchie, Nick Swisher and a few others like that. So it's going to be interesting to see how Peavy/Rios work out because their two big long term gambles for the Sox.

The reason Brewers fans hate Ryan Theriot so much is because when he's playing against them they expect him to suck. But when he gets on base 3-4 times and is causing trouble it pisses people off. The big sluggers you expect to do well, but when the little peasky guys do well it pisses you off and makes you hate the player.

Hendry did what he could do at the deadline, and I think he improved the team. I'm sure he will keep looking to add players through wavier trades. But most of all the Cubs need to get healthy and get a few of their good players going. It would also be nice if Fontenot or Baker got hot though.

LOL at everyone freaking out earlier. This is a pretty good trade IMO. We add Grabow to the pen, put Marshall in the rotation, and have Gorzalanny in the minors hoping that he can get back to pitching like he did in 06 and 07. Basically we gave up Ascaino/Harrison for Grabow and swapped simliar pitchers in Hart and Gorzalanny. But overall I like Marshall in the rotation over Hart and think Grabow will be fine out of the pen. Gorzelanny is more of a project but the Cubs probably like his potential still and feel they can turn him around.

It's really hard to say. I would not be surprised if they did nothing. The bullpen really is their primary targeted area. They're going to see how Ryan throws in Iowa. Other than that, they're really locked in as far as positions on the field. So they aren't looking for help at 2b or for another catcher? I think Fontenot/Baker at 2b could be ok, but with other hitters struggling so much we can't really risk those guys struggling anymore at this point. Same with Koyie Hill, we all seen how horrible he has been when getting too many AB's. Soto won't be back probably for a few weeks. Then when he does come back he could end up struggling a little bit at the plate. So it would be nice to have a veteran back up catcher who could maybe at least hit 240-250 off the bench. As everyone else has said I don't really see the bullpen as a problem either. I guess they feel if they can add another LH reliever Marshall can go into the rotation and fit the rotation issues with Lilly out for probably at least a month.

Thats your opinion and its fine. Yes there has been alot more bad then good so it was a bad offseason. But I'll make my final judgements on the season and the offseason leading up to the season when the season is over with. There's still alot of baseball to play. But If the Cubs do miss the playoffs though, I wouldn't mind Hendry being a pretty short leash next season. Because with how much money this team is spending and with the talent on the roster there's no excuse not to be in the postseason.

I don't buy Coors was the reason alone for his numbers to be that good. Plus Coors isn't THAT much of a better hitters park then Wrigley in the hot summer. It's been a bad offseason as of right now, but not a horrorible one. Most of the reason were not doing good is just good players aren't preforming. If Soto, Soriano and Bradley are hitting like there capable this team is in first place right now. If this team misses the playoffs then I will say it was a crap year. But unlike other people I'm not gonna panic, and still think this team has a good chance to make the postseason.

It's not like Baker didn't have a 790 OPS last year or a 926 OPS against LH pitching. Or put up strong numbers in the minors his whole career. I guess he should be judged on his 38 AB's this season and going 3 for 15 since coming off the DL. I just don't get some of you people sometimes.

Very good move IMO. If Ryan has nothing left then the Cubs don't ever even have to call him up. But with the numbers he put up last year and still only being 33, I really believe he still has something left. When the Cubs signed Edmonds in a simliar move last year I was one of the few people who thought Edmonds had something left and I feel the same way about Ryan. I think by mid August he will be in the bullpen and be pitching well.

I saw people comparing Randy Wells to a young Jon Lieber on another board tonight. I was just wondering if anybody else thought that they could have simliar futures.