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Careless

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Everything posted by Careless

  1. Careless
    what are the odds of that? About the same that, seven years ago, moody-s was correct in setting. 5% national decline in housing prices at millions to one against. Edit: WASN'T correct.
  2. Careless
    And not a drop 10 miles north.
  3. Careless
    It was, in fact, wrong. The chance was 100%. Their models were inaccurate, due to data they couldn't have, I imagine. This was predictable this morning with perfect knowledge. Knowing the weather 6 hours in advance to that level is just not unknowable in that way. So if someone hands you a die and says there is a ~17% probability that you roll a 4, and you proceed to do just that, is that person wrong or right? From a guy who regularly states the % likelihood of things happening, I expect a firmer understanding of probability. In other news, this baseball game needs to happen. Neither. The earlier posters confused a late hs/early college math or chemistry class type probability with a model-based probability, which is entirely different. The model-based probability is only correct to the degree that the model is correct, and no meteorologist will tell you he has a perfect model. Edit: but if you were to pause the camera as the die was thrown, then use a perfect model to determine how it would land, yes, that's wrong. Further edit: or you could have a simple 1/6 model which doesn't pretend to use complex factors to decide, in which case it's undetermined.
  4. Careless
    28% chance of precipitation. That's poor, but not as bad as rain after they've said 0% Why would that be poor? Giving an event a 28% probability and being wrong? Of course it's a poor prediction Where is the "being wrong" part? The 28% probability is not necessarily wrong at all. It was, in fact, wrong. The chance was 100%. Their models were inaccurate, due to data they couldn't have, I imagine. This was predictable this morning with perfect knowledge. Knowing the weather 6 hours in advance to that level is just not unknowable in that way.
  5. Careless
    28% chance of precipitation. That's poor, but not as bad as rain after they've said 0% Why would that be poor? Giving an event a 28% probability and being wrong? Of course it's a poor prediction
  6. Careless
    28% chance of precipitation. That's poor, but not as bad as rain after they've said 0%
  7. Careless
    I'd guess after 3, there's another bit of storm heading that way and they're moving slowly
  8. Careless
    Lot of thunder but no ran here, and the map has the storm already having passed us. Weird.
  9. Careless
    Storms can pop up quickly on hot days
  10. Careless
    Of all the sports and time periods that could use a time machine matchup', this sounds like the best idea
  11. Careless
    ostensibly i'm not sure, i'd have to look It was a lot and increasing when I checked a week or two ago. He was even hitting outside Coors. But hell, I'd be happy for him to make the The Kid Who Only Hit Home Runs deal if that helped our hand. Edit for people not exactly my age: think The Natural if he OPSed 5.000 before the playoffs.
  12. Careless
    Barney just struck out on a pitch that hit him in the thigh. And note the father holding his son back so that ball could be caught.
  13. Careless
    I feel like if you land out of the field, the catch shouldn't count.
  14. Careless
    Finally found a place to line one where they couldn't catch it
  15. Careless
    I don't get it
  16. Careless
    He is not graceful. At least he didn't break his wrist landing.
  17. Careless
    There are far more negative side effects of low testosterone than there are from the replacement drug. Hiking your levels past what is normal artificially however is a very bad idea. There are plenty of men that legitimately need hormone replacement drugs as they get older. I kind of doubt prostrate cancer is a side effect of something your body produces normally but I'm not a doctor or a scientist but the one doctor I have asked about it says that's not at all true. We're talking about a cancer that most men who don't die early will get. Wouldn't be much of a surprise if it harmed men very late in their lives, after decades of reproductive possibilities. Obviously we can't use women as any sort of control, and we're a bit short of eunuchs these days, so it's hard to say there. But are there studies for it like the ones done on women with female hormone replacement therapies?
  18. Careless
    fine for me UGH now what am I supposed to do at work? Sexually harass your boss?
  19. Careless
    Carlos Beltran bought a former teammate a cosmetic nose job that he (Beltran) suggested he get? Are there other stories like this out there?
  20. Careless
    Well you just killed the last 10% of me that wanted to play it.
  21. Careless
    Aside from the Seinfeld episode, a slogan totally unknown outside of people who lived in an area in NY and around NYC in the 90s and late 80s
  22. Careless
    Is that what happened ?? Pat & Keith never mentioned that ! It wasn't that blatant. Kinda grazed him with his glove when he threw his hands up in disgust. Oh, it was blatant. He was poking him with his glove; basically like you would if you were grabbing someone's arm as you were talking to them. It looked like he was tagging him for emphasis.
  23. Careless
    Is four posts during a game a record? And is there a big difference between #1 and 2 in next year's draft?
  24. Careless
    Wow, Barney power. Missed the homer by inches. Maybe 4" higher and it's out.
  25. Careless
    Posting in what might be the deadest game thread ever. Also, I just saw Miley's stats. WTF?
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