I dont know I'd say there was a 15% chance he scores. There was probably at least a 15% chance Crawford makes a bad throw. 150 feet out he could run the catcher up the line, whip the ball on a bad hop to Posey, etc 1.5 out of every 10 times if not higher. Im curious what the exact statistics are on accuracy from relay throws to the plate, because I see them miss fairly often.