Practically zero unless he suddenly fails to secure another top 10 recruiting class, although if he goes 7-5/6-6 with the schedule put before him it'd be interesting to see the reaction. ND's schedule is practically begging for 8 wins or more if the team improves as much as freshmen-to-sophomore improvement normally would suggest they will. ETA: Only morons call him the genius, this term is now used almost exclusively by Internet trolls. I'm not entirely sure I see more than 6-7 wins for sure. San Diego State, Stanford, Navy, Washington and Syracuse are relatively sure wins (Stanford and Navy might be in question, but probably not) North Carolina could be a win, but I'm not sure ND is much better than UNC right now - it's definitely not a sure thing. Otherwise, ND has one sure loss (USC) and five tough games (Michigan, @Purdue, Michigan State, Pitt and @BC). Given that, I'm not sure 8 wins is a sure thing. Less than 6-7 would be awful though. I think ND has a good chance of winning two of the five tough games - even the reprehensibly bad early-season version of the Irish managed to hang with MSU and Purdue last year, and Pitt isn't very good, plus it's at home. Obviously, I'm banking on a lot of improvement, though. Your assessment of the schedule's pretty good. They could win 8 games, my argument is just that it's far from a sure thing. As for the MSU and Purdue games, ND gets the Boilermakers on the road (though, granted, MSU is at home) plus, you can't ignore potential improvements from MSU and Purdue. I'm not sure how Purdue stacks up, but MSU is likely going to be better this year since last year was spent cleaning up John L. Smith's mess. I would think winning one of two of those is a decent bet. And I try to be unbiased with ND and analyze them honestly, I've got no deep-seeded problems with them. :D Purdue has Painter back as well as many other starters (both RB's who together did great last year). The biggest hole is WR (Orton will dominant though mark my words) but with our offense that's never been a problem. The biggest boost will actually be Tiller and our scheme. When they announced they were going to find a successor and bring him in this year Tiller had a long interview with ESPN (relax it was actually very well done article). He said he asked for it because he wanted to have a say in who replaced him but more importantly he said his fire as wained in recent years but he wants to go out big. Also Hope (the successor) was the O-line coach back in the early 2000's when we had great o-lines and the offense was at its peak. Also I've read that Tiller has vowed to go back to how they ran the offense in the late 90's-early 2000's aka passing 80 percent of the time. The bowl game showed it can still dominant. Here's the link to the article. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3323377 For the first time since Orton's days (and maybe before that) I am expecting Purdue to win at least 9 and perhaps get to 10.