CubFanPhilly

What a job by Maddux! It's a blast to watch him when he's on.

So how many more starts? And what happens to him?

It certainly happens and it's possible it happened in Lugo's case. You're right I shouldn't have slapped the label on him. But here's another reason not to want Lugo on the team: Lugo .276/.340/.400 career; .295/.362/.403 '05 Walker .290/.348/.441 career; .305/.355/.474 '05 Lugo/Cedeno is only greater than Cedeno/Walker defensively. Now if you can send Neifi back in the deal, I might be interested. CFP

I have a strong recollection that at least part of the incident happend in view of the team bus. However, I also know that some of the Astros players publicly supported Lugo after the charge. I believe the story was discussed in another thread here. (I'll see what I can find.) Regardless, perhaps the Astros severely over-reacted to the incident? Perhaps the Astros really cut Lugo because he was struggling with the bat at the time? Or perhaps the Astros witnessed the incident or players and/or management were aware of the situation before the incident? But the fact that his wife recanted tells us little - abused women often recant. The fact that witnesses weren't called shouldn't surprise us. Are local authorties likely to supeona local celebrities to testify against a former teammate in a case where the victim is recanting? Can anyone still rely on the acquital of a celebrity as an actual determination of guilt or innocence? Good grief, Lugo signed autographs for the jurors after the verdict. When police showed up his wife had a bloodied lip, a bruised and swollen face. One can choose to believe that Mrs. Lugo's injuries were self-inflicted and/or exaggerated and that the charges were unjustified. One can believe that she recanted because this was an isolated incident and he's otherwise a good husband. Or maybe she recanted because she feared retaliation from him? Maybe she worried about facing a future without him or the impact on her child if she left him? Or maybe she was motivated by greed? I don't know. My first post was probably too harsh and biased. But in my opinion there's enough doubt here to not want the guy on any team I'm a fan of. CFP

I just guesstimated based on his career stats. I think he has at least one DL stint every year of his career. I also think he's likely to draw more walks with no real threat behind him. Will anyone pitch to A Ram with Jones behind him? But certainly Ramirez could have a healthy year and get to 600+ ABs and that'd be a great thing for the Cubs.

Nice, what did you use for playing time? By comparison, in a BP chat they have the Cards scoring 750-775 runs next year. Probably too optimistic regarding Walker, Murton & Cedeno, but here you go: ABs AVG OBP SLG SB CS Barrett 450 .272 .336 .443 1 1 Blanco 150 .210 .270 .330 0 0 Lee 600 .298 .383 .570 8 4 Walker 350 .279 .341 .424 1 1 Hairston 325 .260 .320 .360 7 4 Ramierez 500 .293 .356 .540 1 1 Cendeno 400 .274 .320 .387 12 3 Perez 375 .270 .300 .370 6 2 Murton 400 .281 .343 .418 7 3 Grissom 175 .220 .265 .325 0 0 Pierre 625 .297 .348 .361 40 15 Jones 500 .268 .327 .441 12 5 Mabry 300 .260 .310 .375 0 0 Pitchers 350 .200 .230 .300 0 0 RC Totals 5500 .271 .328 .420 95 39 727 2004 Cubs 5584 .270 .324 .440 65 39 703

I plugged the PECOTA projections into Tim's runs created calculator and I come up with 727 runs. Better than the 703 from '05, worse than '04 and probably not good enough to contend in '06.

I'll take a shot: -The 2006 roster is slightly more talented than the roster the Cubs opened 2003 with. -Angel Guzman reportedly regained his velocity. -Macais is not on this team. -Maybe there really is no correlation between injury history and probability of future injury. -Baker won't have the lack of a LEGITMATE lead-off hitter crutch. -It's the last year of Baker's contract. -Hendry and Baker so undermined Walker's value that he is now untradeable. -Maddux is probably embarassed enough about his rapid decline that he'll do something about it. (And it might not be too late for hard work to matter.) -Aramis had a nice 3/4ths of a season in '05. Maybe he'll have one over 150+ games this year? -1,800 more bleacher bums can't hurt. -Cub hitters might find tinted green glass is a far superior backdrop to Juniper cover. -Aramis might be motivated to make exercising his option pay off big in FA. -Wood might be motivated enough to convince the Cubs that exercising his option wouldn't be ridiculuously foolish. -Prior might avoid line drives, second basemen, achilles strains, and athletes foot and compete with Z for the Cy Young. -Murton put up nice numbers over 140 ABs. He might even put up acceptable numbers over 500 ABs. If not, at least Grissom adds the ridiculous batting stance this team has been lacking since Alou's departure. -Cendeno was born in Carabobo! (Don't know why that'll help, but it can't hurt, right?) Better?

That's a true statement. This team is different. Baker may even excel at managing a team like this. But another question is: do teams like this win? There aren't many examples that did.

I agree 100%. The Cubs were very lucky in '03. Lucky to win 88 with that roster, lucky that there weren't many serious injuries, and even luckier that 88 wins won the division. That's what's so disappointing about this team. With a $95 mil.+ payroll you'd expect your GM to put together a team that projects to 90-95 wins. I don't think this team does. And that's Hendry's failure. He's made some good moves, but he keeps acting like this team is just a little depth or a seventh starter away from being a contender. It isn't. This team will have to either be extremely lucky and/or improved by trade to be a contender. CFP

The apparent direction of this team is a bit depressing. I'm less optimistic than I typically am this time of year. Is it possible for the Cubs to win 90-95 games? Yes. Should we expect them to? No. My guess right now is 2006 will be another season of around .500 baseball. I wondered if I was being too pesimistic, so I thought I'd look back to opening day rosters during the Hendry/Baker era: Rosters 2003 2004 2005 2006 C D. Miller Barrett Barrett Barrett 1B Choi/Karros D. Lee D. Lee D. Lee 2B Grudzielanek Walker/Grudz Walker N. Perez/Walker 3B Bellhorn A. Ramirez A. Ramirez A. Ramirez SS A. Gonzalez A. Gonzalez Garciaparra (DL) Cedeno LF Alou Alou Hollands/Dubois Murton CF Patterson Patterson Patterson Pierre RF Sosa Sosa Burnitz J. Jones Bench Karros/Choi Grudz/Walker (DL) Dubois/Hollands Mabry Martinez Martinez N. Perez Walker/Perez O'Leary Hollandsworth Hairston Hairston Goodwin Goodwin Macias Mabry L. Harris Macias Blanco Grissom Bako Bako Blanco SP Wood Wood Zambrano Zambrano Prior Prior (DL) Prior (DL) Prior Zambrano Zambrano Wood Maddux Clement Maddux Maddux Rusch Estes Clement Dempster Williams Rusch Rusch Miller (DL) Wood (DL) BP Guthrie Mercker (DL) Ohman Ohman Alphonseca Hawkins Fox (DL) Howry Remlinger Remilinger (DL) Remlinger Eyre Farnsworth Farnsworth Borowski Williamson Veres Beltran Wuertz Wuertz Wuertz Bartosh CP Borowski Borowski Hawkins Dempster Farm: Kelton Dubois Murton Pie B. Hill B. Harris Cedeno Theriot J. Cruz Kelton Fontenot Fontenot R. Beck Dempster (DL) Williamson (DL) R. Hill Mitre Leicester Novoa Guzman Wellemeyer Wellemeyer Leicester Novoa Leicester Van Buren ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade/Roster Activity 2003 2004 2005 2006 Trades: Hernandez D. Lee Hairston Pierre (Bellhorn) (Choi) Fontenot (Nolasco) (Nannini) (Sosa + $16 mil) (Pinto) A. Ramirez (Mitre) Lofton Barrett Novoa (Hill) (Miller) (Farnsworth) (Hernandez) (Bruback) Pratt Gerut R. Lewis (Dubois) Glanville (Cruz) (Fransz) (Smyth) Lawton (Gerut) Simon Garciaparra (Sadler) Murton (Harris) (J. Jones) (F. Beltran) (A. Gonzalez) Injuries: Patterson (83 G) Prior (118 IP) Nomar (62 G) Sosa (137 G) Wood (140 IP) Wood (66 IP) Grudz (121 G) A-Ram (145 G) Prior (166 IP) Sosa (126 G) A-Ram (123 G) Borowski (21 IP) Borowski (11 IP) Remlinger (36 IP) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Results/(NL Rank) 2003 2004 2005 Team ERA: 3.83 (3rd) 3.81 (3rd) 4.19 (9th) Team WHIP: 1.32 (4th) 1.30 (3rd) 1.34 (6th) BP ERA: 4.16 (8th) 4.03 (9th) 4.24 (9th) BP WHIP: 1.35 (6th) 1.39 (9th) 1.45 (11th) Team AVG: .259 (11th) .268 (6th) .270 (2nd) Team OBP: .323 (13th) .328 (11th) .324 (11th) Home Runs: 172 (8th) 235 (1st) 194 (2nd) Runs: 724 (9th) 789 (7th) 703 (9th) FINISH: 88-74 NLDS 89-73 3rd 79-83 4th PYTHAG: 85-77 +3 94-68 -5 80-82 -1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Payroll 2003 2004 2005 2006 Approx Payroll: $84 mil. $94 mil. $98 Mil. $100-105 Mil. $86 (ex Sosa) (@ $95-96 now) S Pitch: $14.8 (17.5%) $23.3 (24.8%) $26.7 (27.5%) $31.8 (33.8%) B Pen: $11.5 (13.6%) $11.5 (12.2%) $ 9.6 ( 9.9%) $16.9 (18.0%) Lineup: $51.8 (61.6%) $53.6 (57.0%) $56.5 (58.2%) $38.1 (40.5%) Bench: $ 6.0 ( 7.1%) $ 5.9 ( 6.3%) $ 4.2 ( 4.4%) $ 7.2 ( 7.7%) The resource allocation decisions are interesting. The bullpen should be deeper than it's been in years, but that's no surprise when you look at what the Cubs are spending there. Starting pitching is more expensive with the Wood and Maddux contracts (both busts through '05). That's a trend that will continue as Z and Prior become more expensive. The '06 OF contends with some of the weakest I've seen as a Cubs fan. The team desperately needs another power bat and more OBP up and down the lineup. It's not obvious where the former is coming from and the latter will only happen with a serious overhaul. The bench hasn't been strong any of these years and '06 is no exception - very little power and other than Hairston there's a huge step down from the starters to the bench players. The most striking thing of all, though, is how Hendry has used $94-95 million to assemble a team with such glaring holes. It's as though the team is built for .500 baseball - deep, but mediocre throughout. Cross your fingers Cubs fans. CFP

If they're that entrenched in their opinions (and I'll admit they might be) it was lunacy to pick up Walker's option.

Just say no the mediocre wife abuser please. And before you tell me he was exonerated, think what one might be willing to do if their soon-to-be-millionare husband threatened to dump them if they didn't retract the charges. Ask yourself why Houston cut him loose before he even had his day in court? Could it be because one of these incidents went down in front of the team bus? (That's the story I remember.) Besides, he's just not that good. You can expect Walker/Cedeno to put up a better combined OPS than Lugo/Cedeno. Would the defense be improved enough to make up the difference? I suspect not. Heck, Hairston/Cedeno might put up as much offense. Throw in Williams? Only if you're prepared to start the season with Rusch and Koronka filling out the bottom of the rotation. (I wouldn't bank on Guzman or Hill coming right out of ST.) This only makes sense if it somehow eliminates much of Neifi's time. I don't see how it does that. In fact, I think Baker's Neifi love might be satisfied with less damage to the offense by letting him be an "every day" late innnings defensive replacement for Walker. You know he's going to be one of the first pinch hit options anyway. Neifi can appear in 140 games, for all I care if he makes only 160 or so plate appearances. Just say no Hendry.

If Hendry holds the same opinion as Barrett on this, wouldn't he be out signing a Jeff Weaver or the like? Surely Wood's contract is insured.

1. A-Ram and Williams to Philly for Abreu and Bell 2. Re-sign Nomar to play 3B. 3. Sign Lofton to a 1-yr deal. 4. Platoon Patterson with Murton in LF. 5. Pick up Walker's option. 6. Sign Eyre skip Howry. 7. Sign Perez 1-yr $1.5 mil. 8. Sign Rusch to a 1-yr extension. Pass if he won't do one year. Also approach the Nats about a deal for Vidro, Harris & some cash - offer Patterson, Hairston, Nolasco & Mitre. Lineup Lofton Walker Lee Abreu Nomar Barrett Murton/C Patt Cedeno Bench Hairston Perez C Patt/Murton Bell Mabry Blanco Zambrano Prior Maddux Rusch or Mitre (later Wood) Hill Dempster Eyre Ohman Novoa Wuertz Williamson

Well, it is MUCH easier with a $100 mil. payroll, a genius for a manager, and a clever GM.

Sure. All we need is: 1) 200+ Healthy innings out of Prior, Zambrano, Maddux 150+ out of Wood; 2) Murton to put up a .850 OPS in LF (out of the gate lest, Dusty throw him on the scrap heap); 3) Cendeno to make his first error after June 1st (see Murton comment); 4) Juan Pierre to keep is BABIP near his career norm (even with Wrigley's thick grass); 5) for Derrick Lee's regression to be more gentle than the 1929 Dow Jones index; 6) A-Ram to be healthy for more than 3/4ths of a season. (The downside, of course, is that healthy legs wouldn't provide an excuse for his lack of hustle); 7) for the Cardinals to quit over-achieving; 8 ) for the Astros to wake up and realize they're over-the-hill; 9) for the Brewers to be another year away; 10) Dempster to prove he's no fluke as a closer; 11) for Eyre and Howry not to pull a "Remlinger" or a "Hawkins"; 13) Neifi to revert to his abysmal career numbers (any better than that and Dusty will play him too much); 14) for Hendry to be unable to eek out even a Dwayne Bacon-esque "prospect" without sending $2 mil. cash with Walker; 15) for Jones to suddenly figure out how to hit LH pitching (afterall, Dusty won't figure out he should platoon, and even if he did who would it be? Hairston?) ; 16) for Dusty, Clines, and Sarge to leave Cedeno's swing alone; 17) for the wind to be blowing in 25 MPH every home game (to keep Maddux's gopher balls in the park and to exploit the new no-power slappy line-up). Team ERA of 2.02 / 678 runs scored; 18 ) Hendry to keep any 25 warm bodies on the active roster - just field a team and anything might happen. CFP

I don't remember anything notable about Corey in opening day '04, but he had a monster game opening day '03 against the Mets. 7 RBIs 2 HRs? Is that the game you're thinking of Tree? CFP

I don't see how Corey is personality driven trade. It seems like a performance driven trade to me. I wish the Cubs had given him one more year. Platooning him in LF with Murton would've been fine with me. Good luck Corey.

Doug Pappas had a great web site on the subject, but alas he's no longer with us. Here's a (dated) thread on the subject of the Cubs profitability. Most of the data comes from the Pappas site, the 2001 hearings and the Forbes articles: Premium Non-Premium CFP

That was the speculation at the Orioles Hangout message board - Tejada was trying to force a trade to Boston and was not really interested in going anywhere else. CFP

I agree with the sentiment of the question, but the value of the ball club doesn't do much for your argument (it's similar to the return on the stock market over the same period). CFP

That's certainly plausible (and I'd be against trading Pie and Prior too), but isn't it also possible that Prior and Bedard have been subtracted from the deal and they're now hashing out the prospects? I know the word was that Baltimore wanted a marquee name in return, but maybe they've recognized (as Gooney and others have pointed out) that they'd be much better off in the long run dealing for three or four premium prospects. Somthing like: Pie + Murton + Hill + Patterson + Dopirak for Tejada? That saves the Orioles serious money and should return at least two capable major league players. It wouldn't be a no-brainer for Hendry either IMO.

Hate to say, but I get it. I get it because JJones is the quintessential Jim Hendry move. If you're right Hendry needs to go. (I'm beginning to believe you're right.)

Why would Hendry even be thinking about J. Freaking Jones?!?!? I really can't figure out what Hendry is thinking. He's not acting like his job is on the line. Nor does he seem to be thinking long-term. I just don't get it. Now that the two of the three premium free agents are gone there are only a two responsible tracks left: 1) Make the big trade for a player that puts you in contention (e.g. Abreu or Tejada). This option is obviously dependent on the willingness of the other side (and may not be feasible no matter what you offer); or 2) Sit tight. Keep your pitching prospects (Hill, Guzman, & Williams) and see what happens. If Wood & Prior turn up healthy, Patterson rebounds to some degree and Cendeno & Murton put up decent numbers (i.e., you catch lighting), then make the deadline deal that puts you over the top. If the team nosedives you sell at the deadline and start setting up for a better crop of FA next year. As this team is currently constructed, the only way they contend is with a 2003-type season from the pitching staff. If Hendry MUST find a body for RF - sign Wilson for one year. He'd likely have to overpay, but at least he wouldn't be compounding the problem with a two or three year deal. Platoon Patterson (LF and RF) and see if he responds. If he doesn't and Pie is putting it together you bring him up and cut Corey loose. These deals tossed around for lesser players (Floyd, Huff, Mench, et. al.) don't make this team a contender and they'll only stand in the way of finding out what you have in the young players (Cedeno, Murton & Pie). CFP