Clem Fandango

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San Francisco had the 3rd best record in the National League. The Tigers had the 7th best record in the American League. The Giants probably should've been the favorites form the get go, but it's easy to see why people expected the Tigers to do better what with Prince, Cabrera, and Verlander and everything.

I wonder how much the Marlins want for Johnson. He wasn't exactly back to his dominating self this season, and with one year left and the injury history now a haggling point I wonder if the Marlins are going to ask for a realistic package or shoot for the moon.

Josh Reddick drew more walks in the first half of 2012 then he had drawn in any single season in his entire career, both major and minor. I'd say he's discovered the ability to have a patient approach at the plate. Combine that with an improved batting average with a stabilized BABIP and I think it's very possible that Josh Reddick could continue to improve his OBP, yes. You keep harping on "Career .300 OBP" as if he's some sort of veteran. He was a fill in for injured players last season and a pinch hitter the previous two for like a month. This is his first season as a starter. His .300 career OBP is the way it is because of his bad September. He had a .327 OBP at the end of August, but because of September it dropped to .305. That's how bad his month was. If you think he's gonna have a series of months each season where he goes .164/.214/.295 with a cataclysmic BABIP below .180 and it's going to keep his OBP down, so be it. Reddick is not a .300 OBP guy. Is he a .350 OBP guy right now? No. Do I think he has the ability to become one? Yes. Mostly because he wouldn't need to jump 50 points in OBP, since he's actually closer to a .330 OBP guy at the moment. His low OBP is an aberrational result of one bad month. His OBP was in line with what he did last season before that month (it' was actually identical to the .327 OBP he had last season), and he had improved drastically in his slugging this season to become a legitimate starter with a very desirable OPS. Josh Reddick is not anywhere near as bad as you are claiming he is.

So Josh Reddick created outs at an 80% clip in September, but at a 70% clip the previous 5 months. The 80% coincides with a ridiculous amount of bad luck, and brought up his 70% (which was rounded up from about 69.8%) up roughly 2% (which is actually a pretty big swing for one month to make) to 72%. Let's do a little experiment. Let's compare the Outs Made/PA ratio of players who have fallen in a similar WAR bracket with Reddick. For arguments sake let's say 4.5-5.0 (Reddicks' was 4.8... fWAR, for the record) Player (fWAR) - Outs/PA Jose Reyes (4.5) - 68.4% Ryan Zimmerman (4.5) - 68.7% Dustin Pedroia (4.5) - 67.7% Adam Jones (4.6) - 69.7% Angel Pagan (4.8) - 68.2% Josh Reddick (4.8) - 71.9% Bryce Harper (4.9) - 68.5% Prince Fielder (4.9) - 61.5% Jimmy Rollins (4.9) - 70.5% Miguel Montero (5.0) - 63.5% Joe Mauer (5.0) - 62.7% AVERAGE: 67.3% AVERAGE minus Josh Reddick: 66.8% Do you feel Josh Reddick DOESN'T have the room to improve that percentage by about 5% between now and his free agency? Because around 67% appears to be par for the course for a 4.5 to 5.0 fWAR player, and Reddick wasn't too far off before September crushed his numbers. And if you want to consider Mauer, Montero, and Fielder aberrations that don't fall in line with the others, then the % of the other guys (minus Reddick) jumps to about 68.8%

Baseball-Reference's "Outs Made" calculation: (At Bats - Hits) + Double Plays Grounded Into + Sac. Flies + Sac. Hits + Caught Stealing. Josh Reddick had 484 outs made. Where is the 541 coming from?

I have to quibble a bit here. Reddick making outs at a high rate (I don't care about the absolute # of outs) is a very good reason not to want him. That is, of course, counterbalanced by at least a few good reasons to want to get him on the Cubs. But unless you're seriously mean that you don't care at all about OBP any longer, it's absolutely a reason not to like Reddick. To be fair, I'm not sure where the 541 outs in 671 PA's came from. B-R has him listed as creating 484 outs in 673 PA's, which is .72 outs per PA. Also, Reddick has the ability to draw walks. His AVG may be slightly skewed by a .269 BABIP, which was the 17th worst in the majors. His BABIP the previous season in half as much time was .318. It's too early in his career to determine which is the outlier given this is his first full season, but I'm willing to bet he's a much better hitter than that, or at the very least he will develop into a much better hitter than that. His BABIP in the first half was .292, when he had an .880 OPS and a triple slash of .268/.348/.532. His BABIP in the 2nd half was .244 with a triple slash of .215/.256/.391. He drew 38 BB in the first half in 83 games... 17 in 73 games in the 2nd half. Reddick's primary culprit is an abysmal September. Through August 31st Reddick had a .262/.327/.505/.832 slash line with 28 homers and a .294 BABIP. His BABIP dropped 25 points in September. His September BABIP was .174. His BB and K rates that month didn't deviate all that much from the rest of his season's trends. Actually his K% in September was the 2nd lowest month of his season (first being April). Josh Reddick just couldn't buy a hit in September, and his overall numbers suffered for it.

Reddick also had a .221 ISO, which was 15th best in the AL and 27th best in the majors (3rd best among RF's). That's higher than Prince Fielder, Buster Posey, Adam Jones, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Nelson Cruz, Nick Swisher, Paul Konerko, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Hunter Pence, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Gonzalez. I mean I can keep going but you get the picture. Reddick's value comes in his ability to hit for power, which he can do better than some of the other major leaguers who are known for hitting with power. I really don't care how many outs Josh Reddick creates as long as he's able to consistently hit for power. Unless Reddick is a slap happy singles hitter who hits at the top of the lineup because his manager puts him there based on some preconceived notion that he needs to because he's fast, outs created is a ridiculous reason to NOT want Josh Reddick, and to ignore the factors of age, cost, and team control when evaluating whether or not you want the guy is equally as silly.

Actually those are list of players who created more outs than Josh Reddick

Yea, you know... that 25 year old who just had a 4.8 WAR season. Really. pardon me for not wanting a right fielder who is an out machine. J.J. Hardy Ian Kinsler Derek Jeter Starlin Castro Elvis Andrus Jimmy Rollins Jose Reyes Adam Jones Hunter Pence How many of those players would you a) like to have on your team b) be indifferent if they were on your team or c) would adamantly oppose them being on your team?

I'm not nearly as high on Reddick as some of the others here, but to dismiss the opportunity to have him on your team is pretty shortsighted. He's a very good player given his age, and he doesn't reach arbitration until 2014, and is under team control through 2016. He's an absolute steal right now for the A's, and even after arbitration he should be well worth the money. He's worth looking into acquiring.

Joe Arpaio, yep.

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Well the nightmare of having Mark Grace be considered is likely never going to happen, so... bonus points for that. http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/20121025mark-grace-indicted-dui-counts.html

It re-sets on 7/2/2013, though no international free agents can be signed for the week before that. Do you have a link for your story? Thanks. Was from MLBTR, but here's their source... http://www.npbtracker.com/2012/10/report-nippon-ham-intends-to-draft-otani/

I'd look into Ryan Roberts who may be non-tendered by the Rays rather than Escobar. Walks a ton, pretty decent defensively, and under control for two more years. Remember, Theo has instituted "the cubs way"...no more Milton Bradleys, regardless of upside. Also, I'd be interested in Niemann if he's available. Not sure if any ones mentioned him, but Tim Stauffer would be a really nice pick up. Great gamble because when he's healthy he's very good and a great sinker baller. I'm interested in Zach Britton for the same reason. Maybe Jackson could wet the Orioles' whistle and settle into a corner outfield spot. It would behoove the FO to find sinker ballers to take advantage of the best defensive second baseman in baseball and one of the rangiest shortstops. And a smart manager who positions his defense appropriately

If that does happen and he's delayed from signing with an MLB team until the end of March, doesn't the pool of money for IFA signings reset for every team (or something, I'm clueless on the rules for this)?

Holy crap that's insane. Who the hell puts their own players at risk like that, let alone players who are already injured? It's not a fraternity, it's a team full of investments. What a bunch of idiots.

I agree, but getting the 2nd wild card isn't out of the realm of possibility with those three additions, though. With less than a month left in the regular season the Brewers were about 4 games out of the 2nd wild card spot and were only one game over .500. Getting there won't be as difficult as it used to be. But I agree that if we want to get far in the playoffs, we also need what you suggested. And to be fair I had mentioned before we needed relief pitching as well.

If you're speaking in terms of solely competing for next year. Otherwise it marks a good start at building for a contender in 2014. I have to assume that if they target 2 of the Jackson/Marcum/Liriano/McCarthy/Sanchez tier of starting pitchers, that they would be here through 2015 at the very least. Same with whatever outfielder they choose to target. Bourn, Upton, or Swisher seem like the only decent gambles in that regard.

I found that article pretty encouraging as the FO is lined up pretty well with what we've discussed here as a good plan for this offseason. Mainly, sign two starters and a CF. Really if the team did that they would be in a pretty nice position to contend for a playoff spot. They'd need to fix the bullpen, too, though.

To be fair, he is only signed for one more year, and even if they ate half the salary... $11 million on Lincecum is a pretty decent gamble for a team with enough wiggle room in their salary and the prospects to get him if the team is trying to make a push for it next year.

FWIW... http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/10/21/report-tim-lincecum-will-be-on-the-block-this-offseason/ The Giants would surely have to eat more than half of Lincecum’s remaining salary to get a trade done, but that might be worth it if they are convinced that he won’t bounce back. The 28-year-old was shelled for four earned runs on six hits and three walks in his NLCS Game 4 start against the Cardinals on Thursday night. Lincecum is scheduled to become a free agent for the first time in his career after the 2013 season.

Spend copious amounts of money to show their fans they are going for it all. Start giving up after 3 1/2 months of mediocrity and piss in their fans faces. Stay classy, Marlins (read: Jeff Loria). Although Guillen should've never been hired in the first place, but this is still just another ridiculous note in this past year for the Marlins

Seeing as how it is now the AM and I am just not realizing the Cardinals lost, this is fitting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyooCErXdMI