Derwood
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Everything posted by Derwood
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Trader Jim?
Derwood replied to vance_the_cubs_fan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Er, no? I'm pretty sure the Figgins rumor originates from a Kaplan report on WGN Radio. I know the Burnett thing is more than just pure speculation, too, I just can't remember where it came from right now. sorry, i meant Burnett and Greene, not Figgins -
Trader Jim?
Derwood replied to vance_the_cubs_fan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Roberts and Byrd. they're the only "reported" deals that have been talked about. Burnett is almost completely fabricated here, as is Figgins -
i saw something on the espn bottom line about clemens
Derwood replied to Mephistopheles's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Barry Bonds -
isn't it more or less every GM's policy to deny any trades/signings until they're official?
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they can afford it? If you know the name of the new owner please share it with the rest of us. i'm saying that the Cubs as a business creates enough $$$ to afford it.
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they can afford it?
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only if he declines. i wouldn't mind being hampered by the best pitcher in baseball
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Kind of confused what the problem is. That Soriano and Ramirez projection is basically spot on, nobody is going to perfectly predict R/RBI or playtime but the OBP/SLG which is the important part is almost perfect. The only major difference with Lee is his BABIP was so extremely high last year which again you cannot predict which player get the lucky hits. That leaves DeRosa who only had a 1 year history of being decent so of course a system didn't think he'd repeat it and I'm still doubtful he repeats it since his AVG was .030 pts higher than his xAVG last year which suggests a line that looks a lot more like the PECOTA one in the future. Those projections were pretty decent and if you actually use more stable stats like xAVG, xERA etc I'm sure they are even more spot on. No system is going to predict luck correctly so when you use stats heavily influenced by luck/variance/sample size whatever you want to call it you will not get great results. i didn't pick those as good/bad examples, just put them out there as a matter of looking back.
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1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win. because it hurts your argument No, because ERA is a bad way to predict future ERA. And to address the +, park factors usually suck. fine, my guess is that Santana's predictive stats are also better than Peavy's
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1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win. because it hurts your argument
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They are Meph's projections of the projections. in other words, they are nothing Ok. you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year? i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh. It makes me laugh that Derwood, of all people, is trying to be the arbiter of what is post worthy. that's not what Meph thought you'd say
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1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win!
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1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year
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They are Meph's projections of the projections. in other words, they are nothing Ok. you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year? i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh. i know you do
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1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. 1. why? 2. why? 3. why? how about his 4.96:1 K:BB ratio over the past 4 years?
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Santana, last four years: 182 ERA+, 0.921 WHIP, 228 IP 155 ERA+, 0.971 WHIP, 231.2 IP 161 ERA+, 0.997 WHIP, 233.2 IP 130 ERA+, 1.073 WHIP, 219 IP no one can touch that
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it's close to night and day. maybe twilight and day No it isn't. I'd take Peavy over him straight up. You would take the lesser pitcher. And Peavy is the only one in Santana's league. and pitches half his game in the best pitcher's park in the league. ETA: Peavy was actually pretty much the same away from PETCO, thanks to an OpBABIP 55 points lower on the road
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it's close to night and day. maybe twilight and day No it isn't. I'd take Peavy over him straight up. Peavy is not available. Bedard and Santana are
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it's close to night and day. maybe twilight and day
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I was going to make a mock-ad for the White Sox with this image, but I ran out of steam. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2002/09/19/royals_whitesox_ap/lg_spectators_ap.jpg
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i'm certainly bored with the lack of sports right now, but i don't know that I could get into baseball in january. baseball = spring/summer i feel the same way about the April scrimmage games in college football and August NFL preseason...just can't get into it when it's at the wrong time of the year
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2007 Derrek Lee -- PECOTA -- .288/.369/.527, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 70 R -- ACTUAL -- .317/.400/.513, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R Mark DeRosa -- PECOTA -- .278/.338/.427, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 51 R -- ACTUAL -- .293/.371/.420, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R Aramis Ramirez -- PECOTA -- .299/.362/.564, 35 HR, 107 RBI, 92 R -- ACTUAL -- .310/.366/.549, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 R Alfonso Soriano -- PECOTA -- .287/.349/.569, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 104 R -- ACTUAL -- .299/.337/.560, 33 HR, 70 RBI, 97 R So yeah, I guess PECOTA is sorta kinda close to predictive, but it's really useful for conversation and not much more
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They are Meph's projections of the projections. in other words, they are nothing Ok. you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?
