ISUCubsFan

Looks good bukie. I think you switched around my WKU and Davidson votes, but it wouldn't change anything. As far as setting a bracket, I think we should try to avoid rematches in the 2nd round if possible. It's not against the rules anymore, but I read somewhere that the committee tries to avoid it. Of the top of my head Kansas-Kansas State, Wisconsin-Indiana, Stanford-Arizona, and Connecticut-Marquette/Villanova could happen in the 2nd round.

I'm in favor of this, mainly because it keeps Marmol in the "fireman" role where he can be most valuable. Also, I have to think that the Cubs will experiment pitching Wood back-to-back eventually after he proves he can stay healthy, it's just a matter of how long that will take.

Batting the pitcher 8th isn't as bad as most people think. The benefit is that the pitcher (assuming he's the worst hitter) is as far away from your best hitter, who normally bats 3rd. The drawback is that your worst position player gets a few less AB's. Which effect has more pull on your runs scored is debatable, though I've seen statistical arguments for both sides.

Yeah, though I could do without a tornado hitting one of the tournament sites. For more excitement Boise State and New Mexico State are going to 3OT for the WAC's only bid.

UGA just made things a lot more stressful for the bubble.

Not sure if anyone looked at where the 1-4 seeds will be sent for the 1st and 2nd rounds, so I came up with this with the help of google maps. I just went down the list and found which location was closest. North Carolina - Raleigh UCLA - Anaheim Memphis - Little Rock Tennessee - Birmingham Kansas - Omaha Duke - Raleigh Texas - Little Rock Georgetown - Birmingham (can't go to Washington) Wisconsin - Omaha Stanford - Anaheim Xavier - Washington Louisville - Washington Drake - Denver Butler - Tampa That assumes we don't make any changes to the top 14, but it shouldn't be too hard to switch them around if we do. That leaves one Denver and one Tampa location open for the last 2 of the top 16. The closest location for the 6 teams that recieved votes are: Vanderbilt - Tampa Notre Dame - Denver Connecticut - Tampa Washington State - Denver Purdue - Tampa Marquette - Denver

I looked at their resume again and I do think I underestimated them. I'd probably move them up to behind Oregon or VCU. I don't want to put them ahead of the Pac 10 duo because they both have more big wins and a much better winning % vs the RPI Top 50. It's going to be close, so they need to root against Va. Tech and Temple today.

Good question since there's not much precedence for a BCS team with a losing record making the field. They're behind the top 5 on the list for sure, but after that you can make an argument for them since they'll be up against other teams with crappy losses and Illinois has better wins. Probably a 14, or maybe a 15. I'll come up with something more exact if it happens.

Or they could go to overtime (again).

Georiga might have this 2 games in one day thing down. Beating UK by 10 just 8 minutes in. Still a long way to go, but they'll need a blowout so they can rest their starters.

Here's what I have going into Saturday. Teams not "locked in" in my Thursday post got a short write up. LOCKED IN (33): North Carolina Duke Clemson Wisconsin Indiana Purdue Michigan State Texas Kansas Georgetown Louisville Notre Dame Connecticut Marquette Pittsburgh West Virginia UCLA Stanford Washington State USC Tennessee Vanderbilt Mississippi State Memphis Xavier Gonzaga Saint Mary's BYU Miami (FL) - loss to Va. Tech wasn't great, but no one is going to pass them Oklahoma - in for sure now Kansas State - same as Miami Kent State - finals + everyone else losing locks them in Arkansas - locked in now SHOULD BE IN (4): Kentucky - Georgia loss could hurt, but they were ahead of most teams before South Alabama - should be in now with the entire bubble lossing, a lock for us UNLV - MWC final is more than others have done Texas A&M - a bubble team actually winning? + SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (7): Baylor - bad loss to CU, but not enough teams will pass them to knock them out St. Joe's - huge Xavier win puts them in for now, but winning the A14 is recommended Arizona - SOS + RPI keeps them in still, but they're 17-14 Villanova - more solid wins than the other teams on the bubble Illinois State - weak resume, but everyone behind them has few quality wins or a terrible RPI Temple - did what they had to, but might fall out again if they lose today Arizona State - I like their profile, but a RPI of 75+ would be close to a record for an at large - SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (5): Oregon - ASU with better computer numbers but no Xavier win VCU - still need more help, going to be close though Virginia Tech - very few good wins means they probably need to beat UNC today UMass - Charlotte loss kills, probably outside looking in for good Dayton - RPI gives them a chance, but they've been too bad in 2008 ALL BUT DEAD (7): Ohio State - needed to beat more top teams than they did New Mexico - need to pull an Air Force-like bid from a few years ago Florida State - probably out Florida - out Mississippi - out Syracuse - out Maryland - out I don't think the number of bids changed from Thursday, but that could change (I'm looking at you Illinois/Minnesota). Every category (except LOCKED IN) is in order, but don't be surprised if I change it up by tonight.

Yeah, I'll try to post more on the bubble discussion tomorrow morining, but I didn't have much time today and keeping track of the Big 10 endings, every other low major #1 seed losing, and tornados took it all up. I wouldn't want to be on the real committee this year.

San Deigo is missing from the teams that we need to rank that will be behind the at larges. I'll post more later tonight.

If no one wants into the tournament do they have to let them in? I had 20 teams on the bubble earlier today and so far they're 4-8 today with Arizona, Ole Miss, and New Mexico still playing. The 4 wins were over Iowa State, Wake Forest, LaSalle, and Richmond.

Iowa State goes down to Texas A&M to end their season. Shooting 27% doesn't win basketball games, and it's what they've been doing all year. Like most games, they didn't get blown out, but it never felt like they had a chance in the 2nd half.

Here's what I've got right now. I didn't spend too much time ordering teams between tiers. 34 at larges available + 10 auto bids available to teams I have in the field (BCS, MWC, MAC, A14, CUSA) makes 44 spots max available. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind later on, and probably will. LOCKED IN (28): North Carolina Duke Clemson Wisconsin Indiana Purdue Michigan State Texas Kansas Georgetown Louisville Notre Dame Connecticut Marquette Pittsburgh West Virginia UCLA Stanford Washington State USC Tennessee Vanderbilt Mississippi State Memphis Xavier Gonzaga Saint Mary's BYU SHOULD BE IN (8): Miami (FL) - probably in no matter what Oklahoma - in barring loss to Colorado, which would still leave them in good shape Kansas State - don't see how they fall out, but a quarterfinal loss possibly put them back on the bubble Kent State - quarterfinal loss would hurt, but they should be fine with anything more Arkansas - win over Vandy would a bid, loss might slip them back to the middle of the bubble Kentucky - in now despite an awful non-conference performance, shouldn't lose in the quarters to be safe South Alabama - Miss. St. win is huge, can fall back if other teams start winning (hasn't happened yet) UNLV - no great wins, but a few solid ones should get them in this year + SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (8): Baylor - Colorado loss hurts, still in for now Arizona - SOS + RPI keeps them in for now, loss tonight would put them in trouble UMass - getting to the finals might be needed, semis loss puts them in serious troube Oregon - win tonight and they're likely in, lose and they're in bad shape Ohio State - see Oregon Texas A&M - beating Iowa State is a must, beating K-state clinches a bid Villanova - a few good wins + good last 12 = good enough for now Illinois State - hanging on, I'm running out of teams to put in the field though - SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (12): VCU - need some help to get back in, nothing in non-conference to help them out New Mexico - needs to beat UNLV on the way to the finals to have a good chance Arizona State - I like their profile, but a RPI of 75+ would be close to a record for an at large St. Joe's - probably need to go through Xavier in the semis to be close Florida - need wins in the tournament, how many depends on what else happens (lol, down 29-5 as I post this) Virginia Tech - go to ACC finals, semis might make it close Mississippi - conference final loss is probably the only way in Florida State - see Va. Tech Maryland - see FSU Temple - well they were 2nd the A14, but a finals run and luck is required Syracuse - out unless the committee decides to expand the field Dayton - RPI gives them a chance, but no substance late in the season will kill them Tell me if I forgot anyone or you disagree with something. I'll have my 34 teams in after I see what happens tonight. Edited for Dayton losing and me not remembering it happened.

Good. More mid-majors and less crappy major conference teams. I hope Billy Packer's head explodes. EDIT: Well, not necessarily crappy major conference teams, but less fifth and sixth place teams from major conferences. Well, San Diego just took another spot by beating Gonzaga in the WCC Championship. Bad night for the bubble/Billy Packer.

South Alabama just added themselves to the bubble discussion with a loss to Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis. They're in much better shape than VCU, but the Sun Belt is getting one for sure, two if USA gets in (they're around a 8 or 9 seed in most projections before today), and a possible 3rd if Western Kentucky can sneak in with a loss in the semifinals or finals (unlikely). Not good news for the rest of the bubble.

Weird, I was just doing a homework problem that had torsion and shearing stress in it when I opened this thread. I may never look at mechanics problems the same again.

I think Arizona is still on the top of the heap, with Oregon and Arizona State slightly behind. The Pac-10 tourney will hopefully clarify things a bit more. On an unrelated note, VCU's loss really killed their chances despite a decent RPI. Their conference is only 14th by RPI, and their statistical efficiency puts them 71st, below all 3 of those Pac 10 bubble teams. I'd say Arizona>=ASU>Oregon right now. Arizona and ASU are probably in as of now, but winning their quarterfinal games would be a good idea. Oregon probably needs to beat WSU to feel good about their chances. Arizona gets the slight edge because they have a better RPI, SOS, and will get consideration for injuries, but you could make a case for ASU having a better resume. They have more wins over tourney locks (Xavier, Stanford, USC vs. Washington State x 2), finished a game ahead of Arizona, and swept them during the season. Arizona still has lots of wins over bubble teams though. Oregon is a step below Arizona State because they have a worse non-conference loss (Illinois>Oakland), a worse marquee non-conference win (Xavier>K-State), and the difference between the two teams in conference is that ASU split with USC and Cal, while Oregon swept Cal and lost both games to USC. I agree that VCU is in trouble and needs a lot of help this week to get in, though stranger things have happened. Also, though Pomeroy Ratings are much better than RPI and other rating systems at determining who is most likely to win a game between two teams, it doesn't really measure resume strength which is what the committee looks at. As long as you win big and lose close you'll have a high rating (see Illinois). It seems that the committee, for better or worse, looks at just wins and losses.

VCU just made it harder on themselves and the rest of the bubble by losing in the CAA semis. That probably drops them out, but if enough bubble teams lose they could sneak back in.

One of these days Iowa State will hold on to a double digit lead, or win a game on the road.

I don't expect anyone who doesn't follow the conference to know this but the Big West Conference reseeds the teams so the highest seeded team plays the lowest seeded team in each round. But, at least to me, the BWC is weird because the top 2 seeds receive byes to the semifinals. First round is 5 v 8 and 6 v 7. The 3 and 4 teams don't play until the quarters and 1 and 2 don't play until the semifinals. I know the West Coast Conference has the same structure as this (1 and 2 play in the semis, 3 and 4 play in the quarters), but they don't re-seed. The Big Sky and Northeast Conferences (and maybe more) re-seed after the first round though.

If Henderson doesn't get in they should just close the place. Raines might have to wait a year or two so voters don't compare him to Rickey, but he should get in at some point.

At least you don't have Neifi...yet.