Backtobanks
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Everything posted by Backtobanks
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That's been the rumor floating around for a long while now. I think it's unlikely at this point. He's coming off a rough season, but he typically hits well in the first half. So if he hits well through the trade deadline, teams may be willing to pay just as much for a half season of him as they are willing to pay right now based off last year's production. That said, there's no good reason the Cubs couldn't trade him right now. Sure, they want to sneak into the back of the playoff picture. But if we're being honest, the difference between Willson and Yan Gomes isn't that substantial. If the offer is sufficient, I see no reason they have to wait until the deadline to move him. A trade to the Padres could include Caratini as a throw-in.
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What's disheartening is it's unclear if the system is comparable to where it was in the early 2000s, where a number of high profile players didn't pan out despite significant hype (Harvey, Pawelek, C-Patt/E-Patt, Pie, Cruz, etc.), or if it's comparable to the system in the early/mid-2010s, where it seemed like the Cubs hit on every high level position player draft pick and trade target. I mean, it sucks that this system really hasn't done a whole lot since the Happ callup, but that's where we are now. You can see the possibilities, for better and for worse. Its a good point, we really have no idea. We've made a lot of changes to scouting and development recently but no guarantee that's going to make things better. When the best player you drafted outside of the first round for over a decade is David Bote, you tend to lose faith in these things. 27 Cubs draft picks outside of the 1st round since 2012 have made it to the majors. 13 of them have negative WAR. Of the 14 that have positive WAR, only 2 of them have been worth 1+ wins in the majors: Bote (3.4) and Cease (3.0). Yikes. At least we can always look back at our record of developing pitching from our minor league system.
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The Ricketts are probably calling to get the details at this minute. Don't the announcers just travel on the team charter? What added expense does it cost to put them on the road? Obviously lodging and per diem but that can't be that much. What am I missing? You answered your own question - lodging and per diem. These guys didn't become billionaires by "throwing money around".
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You're disillusioned about the state of the farm? Is it not a very deep farm with very few high end pieces? This isn't some top 5 system or anything, and if you are a rich team that sucks you better have a high end farm system. Maybe disillusioned is a strong word, but when you have to hang your hat on the farm part of your organization, it should be better that what the Cubs have. We can also hang our hat on the Reds selling off players and hoping that some key players for the Brewers and Cardinals get injured.
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Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread
Backtobanks replied to Sammy Sofa's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Contreras was gone the day they signed Gomes. It's been a matter of when and not if. -
Coors + he sort of had the yips at the end last year. Though that was probably just a shoulder injury rather than any scary mental issue. Here are the terms Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers. Wait until KB hits .380 with 72 HR.
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The Ricketts are probably calling to get the details at this minute.
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Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)
Backtobanks replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Suzuki looks like a good solid ML player, but I think we ought to hold off on the Mike Trout comparisons for 2-3 years. -
If this is the team, what is the point in trading for Hosmer? Nobody is interested in acquiring Hosmer. As much as we rag on Jason Heyward for his performance since signing his contract, even he has vastly outperformed Hosmer since Hosmer signed his big contract four years ago -- 6.0 fWAR to 0.5 fWAR. So whatever you think Heyard's miniscule value on the field is, Hosmer's is ten times less. And Hosmer is owed $15M more dollars than Heyward. The value of Hosmer is the package of prospects the Padres would have to include to get somebody to absorb his contract. I could honestly see the Cubs trading for him and cutting him within the day, just for a chance to get the prospects. Though as far as reclamation projects go, he'd probably be worth giving a month of at bats to and see if a change of scenery from Petco helps at all. But I sincerely doubt anybody sees anything of real value in Hosmer at this point. They both have certainly under preformed their contracts, but the complaint about Heyward is his offense. Since 2016 Heyward's OWar is 4.6, while Hosmer's is 10.1.
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If this is the team, what is the point in trading for Hosmer? His bat would be a very slight nice to have for the bench, but the 'why' always has been and always will be the goodies that would come with him. You'd presumably be getting Robert Hassell or Luis Campusano, either one being our clear #2 prospect, and an MLB ready SP in either Chris Paddack or Ryan Weathers. Hosmer + Campusano + Caratini + Paddack + Weathers + Gore for Contreras + Bote + Alcantra + Mills. According to MLBtradevalues, the value comes out pretty even. We get a lefty bat, a cheap backup catcher, a future catcher, and pitching, they get infield help, a starting catcher, a SP, and get rid of Hosmer.
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There's one big problem, Freeman wants to be paid what he's worth.
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Agreed, as has been the case the last several years, the division is very winnable if the right moves are made. You have to balance that fact with whatever long term plan Jed has I guess. It's getting pretty obvious that the "right moves" aren't going to be made this offseason.
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But winning the game without a hit, via a sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly, is much more exciting! Are you describing the 2022 Cubs' offense?
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Now that Tatis is out, let's flip Simmons to the Padres in the never-ending combination of Hosmer/Myers/Contreras rumors.
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Except one of them actually owns a bat.
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Cubs closing in on free-agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons
Backtobanks replied to mias_tisg's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Because 4 MM is not a lot of money in MLB terms (as David has already stated). It's nothing and throwaway money. And you do remember that the Cubs already spent big on Marcus Stroman right before the lockout, correct? There are a hell of a lot of better directions to throw $4M. This is a smart dumb thing or a dumb smart thing whichever way you want to look at it. Get the backup plan in place first. Assuming Simmons is going to be the backup and not the starter. -
Cubs closing in on free-agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons
Backtobanks replied to mias_tisg's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Why spend $4 million on a backup SS when you have Hoerner and Alcantra making league minimum? This sounds like another "we didn't trade Darvish for financial reasons" and "signing Gomes doesn't mean we're trading Contreras" statement. -
Cubs closing in on free-agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons
Backtobanks replied to mias_tisg's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Speaking of 5 years ago, after the lockout we have signed Simmons and Ross. -
Unfortunately, you're probably getting a soccer team instead.
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They could be if its a short term deal. The Cubs still have a gigantic lack of left handed hitters and the ones they have are not power bats (Heyward, Ortega, Diechmann, Alcantara). Doesn't mean it has to be Rizzo but he would be an option at a position where we can improve. The problem more than his bat IMO is that his defense swan dived last year. I didn't watch a ton of post-deadline Cubs but when I did I continually saw issues defensively at 1B so we need to get better there. Also his recurring back issues make him unreliable so we'd need a backup option to pair with him. Also, I don't think his sentimental status as a former Cub moves Jed at all but his leadership qualities might (outside of the whole vaccination issues). Finally, its very possible he blew all his money on NFT's and will be desperate to take the first contract offered to him after the deadline. I don't remember where I saw it, but someone speculated he might end up with 2 years/$20 million. Signing him certainly makes more sense than giving up any players for Ahmed, Gregorious, etc. because they don't trust Hoerner to do the job.
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From MLBTR: Kyle Seager Announces Retirement
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I understand doing 2/90 or something crazy like that to lead off the deal changes the math substantially, but I can't imagine they get away with both less total dollars AND less AAV than Seager (or Lindor). That said if this is the opening offer, it feels like Jed will get to a number that *does* do it. Maybe 8/276? Gives him the highest AAV for a shortstop (and I believe non-Trout position player), and that structure probably is roughly equivalent to a more straight up 8/300? Guys this feels real He could take the 2/90 and opt out and still get a 7 or 8 year contract.
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Good move for depth, but the Hoyer quotes about being finished with the rotation is worrisome. One more solid rotation piece would certainly go a long way toward respectability.
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I still think a deal for Merrill Kelly makes a lot of sense. It would solidify the rotation for a couple of years at a low cost both in prospects and dollars.
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Why this dead end every single time? Somehow all the money seemingly magically disappears anytime a player better than a reclamation pitcher or DH trying to play defense gets mentioned! What are the rules? Also I'd respectfully disagree with that last claim based off of nothing anyone's said anyway I'm going by what the Cubs have said about spending and what all of the sportswriters have reported - basically the Cubs aren't going to spend big or long term until they are closer to be seriously competitive. The money hasn't "magically disappeared", it's just that Ricketts has decided to tighten the purse strings and it's his money we're talking about. We could have filled all of the holes if Ricketts decided to go all in by spending top money for 2 or 3 starters, a top SS, and a power LH bat instead of looking for short-term fixes.