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Perrotto's Latest: Free Agent Predictions By Steve Adams [November 9 at 2:35pm CST] John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Perrotto offers a list of some educated guesses as to where some of the top free agents in baseball will land, with some surprises here and there. Let's take a look: Perrotto lists the Yankees loading up on starting pitching, landing C.C. Sabathia and Derek Lowe, while the Dodgers land Manny Ramirez after doubling their initial offer to four years, $100MM. Perrotto says the Nationals will land Mark Teixeira, as they could be prepared to offer Teixeira - a Maryland native - ten years, $200MM. Turning down that kind of money would certainly be difficult. Perrotto has Adam Dunn landing on the North Side of Chicago and having an adventurous time in right field for the Cubs. According to these predictions, he'll be joined by Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood - neither of whom are going anywhere. Perrotto feel Andy Pettitte won't be back with the Yankees, and feels that he will either take a below-market contract from his hometown Astros or retire. He also pegs Mike Mussina to likely retire, but agrees he'll be back with the Yankees if he does indeed make a run at 300 wins. Other predictions from Perrotto: Raul Ibanez and Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets, Milton Bradley to Toronto, Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota, Casey Blake back to Cleveland, A.J. Burnett to the Orioles, Brian Fuentes to the Angels, Nick Punto to St. Louis, Randy Johnson to the Angels, Jason Giambi to Oakland, and Orlando Hudson to the Mets. The list of players who will end up back with their current teams: Ben Sheets, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, and Jason Varitek, on a two-year $20MM contract, courtesy of Scott Boras. MLBTraderumors: Phil Rogers says that the Cubs could sign Ryan Dempster by Thursday

If we don't get Peavy, a deal for Hermida and Olson could end up being a good deal depending on the cost. Take Olsen and flip him to the O's in a deal for BRob. Assuming Pie and Cedeno would be part of a trade: 1B - Lee 2B - BRob SS - Theriot 3B - ARam LF - Soriano CF - Fukudome/Johnson RF - Hermida/Derosa C - Soto Bench: Johnson/Fukudome, Fontenot, Hoffpair, Derosa/Hermida, MI sub, Blanco/Hill

hendry's got to let him know how much better his numbers might be at petco and NL west ballparks. his salary for the next few years is set anyway. And Jeff would probably be a lock to become a starter for the Pads, assuming that's what he wants to do. All in all though, I doubt Shark will be in the mix. I think he likes Chicago, which is a good thing. I think he should be a lock for our rotation... get Marquis the hell out of here. I don't see us keeping Dempster if we get Peavy, no way Demp puts up those numbers again next year. What in the world does Jason Marquis have to do to get people to stop hating him? He was probably the most effective 5th starter in baseball last year. While I agree with your comments on Marquis, you'll never get much sympathy by complimenting Marquis on a Cubs website. To me the only real negative to Marquis has been that he's a #5 starter paid like a #3 starter, but you can't blame him for taking the money that was offered.

The next question is how cheap is a young productive RF if he is going to cost us 3-4 prospects.

Why would the Padres want Lee? They wouldn't Agree, but if Lee were to be traded Hoffpaiur could play there. Or we could sign Tex. Hoffpauir is not an everyday 1B.

You called? Cubs sign Furcal and then trade Marshall, Veal/Hart, and Ceda to Marlins for Hermida and Olsen. Cubs trade Olsen, Pie, Theriot, and Hill to SD for Peavy. Furcal @ SS, Hermida in RF, and Peavy in the rotation.

We don't need a DH playing 1B.

It's amazing to me the disrespect Dempster gets from some posters. He was our most consistent starter last year. While his 2008 season doesn't guarantee he can do it again, it shouldn't be looked at as a complete fluke either. Also, I'm always amazed that so many people think these athletes have the natural talent to hit 40+ HRs or win 18 games with a 3.00 ERA during their contract year and then put their talent to sleep for the rest of their contract.

I agree. If we did such a deal, with Ceda involved, we could probably land Greene in the prcoess and let him fight it out with Ronny for SS. On a side note, what ever became of Todd Walker. He was always a serviceable utility man and lefty bat, but after a few stints with the Pads and A's, he fell completely off the map. Walker changed his name to Mike Fontenot.

Most trade scenerios never work. Its all nothing more than specualtion. That's true. I've probably been as accurate as most of the "experts" who are being paid big bucks.

Roberts now has 1 year left on his contract and is 1 year older. If Liz is the problem, pull Liz and put in a different pitching prospect. I'm sure if Roberts is extended, he will have a NTC. Well, most of the trades that involve the Cubs would have them trading with a team that is rebuilding, so the Cubs would get the "best" players while the other team(s) would get prospects. Not that I know of, but this would be a great first. I've proposed a few, but a lot of times it's hard to match up with just one other team. The Peavy discussion right now seems to center on the fact that the Cubs don't have the prospects to get it done alone and probably would need a third team to get involved.

Pirates want to dump Sanchez and Wilson to go young. Orioles need MI help and innings eater in the rotation. Cubs need lefty bats and lead off man. Pirates get: Pie, Cedeno, Marshall, Veal/Hill/Hart, (from Cubs) and Liz (from O's). Orioles get: Marquis (plus $5,000,000) (from Cubs), Sanchez, and Wilson (from Pirates). Cubs get: BRob (from O's) and McLouth (from Pirates) If the deal needs some tweaking with prospects or cash, so be it. 1B - DLee 2B - BRob SS - Theriot 3B - ARam LF - Soriano CF - McLouth RF - Fukudome/DeRosa C - Soto Bench: Johnson Fontenot Hoffpauir Blanco/Hill Fukudome/DeRosa \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

Today's Tribune has this quote from Piniella: "We don't know if this team is going to be sold this winter, and I don't see us getting into any big spending in the free agent market", Piniella told the New York Daily News. "We need to get more athletic and younger, and we're probably going to have to fill our needs through trades." I don't know if any of those quotes means too much, but it kind of sounds like "no" to players like Abreu, Ibanez, and maybe Furcal and possibly "yes" to someone Hermida/ McLouth or BRob.

Rosenthal from Foxsports wrote a column saying that Dempster will test the market, so it looks like the Cubs won't be getting any early-signing, home-town discount.

Fontenot is the perfect example of an undervaled player. As for selling high, he would be a throw-in in a package deal.

2 year deal, low base with high incentives.

I'm not as excited about Burnett as everyone else seems to be, especially for the crazy money teams are lined up to pay him. Assuming Dempster's year wasn't a total fluke, Dempster will be $3-$4 million cheaper per year for 1-2 less years.

I agree that I would like to see an OF who still is young enough to help the team for a few years. McLouth, Hermida, Beltran, etc. rather than Maggs, Abreu, etc.

Does he think hes writing an article for a video game audience? Seriously, that might be the most [expletive] trade proposal that has been published...thats quite an accomplishment. I posted this "rumor" under the "Derrek Lee being traded" thread earlier this morning. That thread had discussion about how idiotic Rogers (and Sullivan) are with their "rumors", so I thought it was the appropriate place for this discussion. Gonzalez - 26 yrs old .279/.361/.510 with 36 HRs and 119 RBI making $875,000. Lee- 33 yrs old .291/.361/.462 with 20 HRs and 90 RBI making $13,250,000. The Cubs would have to add something (Pie?) to Lee just to get Gonzalez. Imagine what they would have to add to the package to get Gonzalez AND Peavy. Rogers is an idiot.

Now "The Idiot" (aka Phil Rogers) is suggesting that Lee might go to San Diego in a package for Peavy plus Adrian Gonzalez. I'm sure San Diego's rebuilding plans included sending their 26-year-old 1B making $875,000 who had a line of .279, 36 HRs, 119 RBI, .361, .510 for a 33-year-old 1B making $13,000,000 who had a line of .291, 20 HRs, 90 RBI, .361, .462. I would love to see the rest of the package the Cubs would have to include to make that deal. Rogers must have been drunk when he wrote this piece.

Trading Lee doesn't give us a lot of options unless we know what we get back. Signing Texiera won't be easy with 5-6 teams offering insane money.

I'd settle for a 1 year contract. The new owner shouldn't be saddled with a drunken sailor on shore leave. Hendry has spent an incredible sum of money to "stay competitive within division". It's a good thing you aren't Hendry's agent. By all accounts, Hendry built the best team in the NL (possibly the best team in both leagues) and you complain that he spent an incredible sum of money to "stay competitive within their division". Well the last time I looked the Yankees, Mets, Angels, White Sox, and Red Sox are all sitting at home after spending an incredible sum of money too and I don't see the outrage aimed at their GMs.

Personally, I would rather go after Hermida or McLouth than people like Ibanez or Abreu. If we're looking for a blockbuster, go after Beltran.

Yeah I read that and the first thought I had was, "Yes, Phil the Cubs would trade Derrek Lee just to get Micah Hoffpauir into the lineup. NM Tex is available, no, no, Micah would be the 1st baseman if the Cubs dealt Lee." Rogers is a tool, and I get dumber reading his articles. Phil and Paul are different people But both of them are idiots.

Yeah, I'd rather part with Dempster than Wood. It's easier to replace a bullpen arm than a starter. Also, I don't understand all of the posters who think Dempster's year was a fluke. It's not a guarantee that he will be as effective in 2009 as he was in 2008, but he was our most consistent starter last year. Dempster was a highly regarded prospect as a starter before becoming a reliever.