Backtobanks

Not all upcoming opportunities are apparent to us right now. Obviously Pujols and Prince were/are top tier assets at a position that needs to be filled. It's also true that there aren't a lot of FA options in coming years. That being said, you can't let those facts put you in a "must get" position. Albert went for too much and if someone gives Prince 9-10 years, you just have to let it go (if you're smart). The Cubs have money, but by no means does that mean they should adopt a "we'll get player X at any cost" mentality towards anyone. That's foolishness; you pay up until the point it stops making sense. You say you're discouraged the Cubs didn't make a "competitive offer" for Pujols. IMO, an offer in the 9-10 year 250/275 range would have been something more than competitive: it would have been stupid. And fortunately, not all potential solutions are ones that we here see. If Theo and Jed decide they want to load up on prospects and young player via trades and turn some of those into trades for ML players later, that's one avenue. Surely they have things in mind that we aren't thinking about. The Cubs can't field a team of buy-low veteran players for more than a year without impacting revenue, they surely know that. IMO, the frustration here is stemming from them not making moves (so far) that we wanted them to, but as much or more so from the lack of transparency regarding what's going on. And really, you can't make any valid judgement about what they're doing without looking at it in a larger context that we can't see yet. I was hoping for the team to be aggressive about 2012, but was prepared for the possibility that the year would be spent clearing the table. I can't believe it will take very long. With the money the Cubs have and if the Theo and Jed keep making moves and adding assets like they did this week they'll be in a position go out and acquire pieces we need later. And again, the offseason isn't over yet. Again, I try to be as optimistic as many of you, but "acquiring the pieces we need later" makes it sound like everybody else is going to sit on the sideline when it comes to FAs or give in to Theo on trades. The Yankees and Red Sox basically sat out this offseason, but I wouldn't count on that happening in the coming years. Other GMs have learned to overprice their impact players and their top prospects. A lot of Theo's plan is based on hope - hoping Jackson can be a star, hoping Stewart bounces back to his original draft potential, hoping Byrd/Soriano/Marmol/Zambrano/Dempster can have great 1st halves to become trade bait, etc.

Every move they've made to this point has signaled a classic burn it down and start all over again rebuild. Some of the moves have been good (DeJesus, Marshall), some have been kinda neutral (Stewart, Corpas), some have been mind-boggling (Reed). But the common thread has been filling holes with cheap vets/high risk youth in the hopes that you can look respectable for a season or two while you rebuild the minors. I'll admit I'm still frustrated over missing on Pujols. I'd have been ok with 10/275 for a historically great hitter who fills a major need where we have 0 ML talent above rookie ball. I'd have certainly preferred that to doling out huge sums of money to multiple FA pitchers next offseason to have any hope of contending. Adding Pujols would be a big risk, but a calculated one and one that fills a hole that will be incredibly difficult to fill going forward. They're going to have to give up assets at this point to get a first baseman and we have much more money available than assets. My biggest frustration there, though, is that we reportedly didn't even make a competitive offer. On Darvish, that's not Theo/Jed's fault. They put in what they felt was a fair bid and likely were in line with everyone else. If the bid was $20 million or less, I'll be disappointed they didn't go higher, but they likely hit right around market value and it can't be helped that a team went way above market in a blind bid. I really wanted Wilson, but I don't fault them there either. It was clear he was going to the Angels and it would have taken a silly contract to pry him away. There are other free agents out there, but I have serious doubts about whether we'll pursue them. If the philosophy going forward is to not overpay for FAs, then that's admirable but it's going to guarantee an extended rebuilding process. Given the lackluster attempt at pursuing Pujols and the carelessness of tossing around needless millions (Reed and Corpas), I'm beginning to think the reports that they're not serious or don't have the funds for Prince are the more likely to be accurate. I could be wrong and I hope I am, but I've not seen anything this season that leads me to believe differently. If I was seeing some parallel fronts stuff, I'd agree. But the only improvements they've made to the major league roster have been Wood over our 5th starters and DeJesus over our RF. Third base is likely a major downgrade and they didn't make a serious attempt at improving first when Pujols was available. If they go get Prince and, say, Cespedes then I'll be wrong and happy about it. But I think the trend we're seeing is indicating otherwise. It's not about resources at this point, it's about opportunities. This becomes less a full rebuild and more a lengthy reload if we go get Prince, but if we miss on him what impact talent is out there? Nothing this offseason (Cespedes might be potential impact, but that's it) and only pitching next offseason. We'll basically go into the offseason absolutely needing 2 of the FA starters to have any shot at contending next year with how mediocre (optimistically) our offense is likely to be. First off how likely are we to sign two of those free agents, and how smart is it to give 6-8 years to one pitcher with a decent amount of mileage on his arm, much less two of them? And even if we sign two of the FA pitchers, we're still losing Dempster and Zambrano. Neither is great anymore, but both are still solid 2-3 win players (adding in Z's offense there). We're really only gaining a few wins over the two of them and may still have questions at the back end of our rotation - what if Shark doesn't cut it as a starter, what if Cashner doesn't develop enough arm strength to start? If we don't get Prince, I simply think there's way too many needs, questions, and unknowns to realistically think we can contend in 2013. But Theo's really good at what he does, so he may make me look silly on this. And I hope he does. Great post. The only thing I disagree with is your comment about looking respectable for a season or two while you rebuild the minors. Right now the 2012 Cubs are nowhere near respectable and 2013 looks about the same. As you posted, I hope Theo proves me wrong.

They almost certainly wouldn't accept that, but they might accept a 6-7 year deal written so Fielder could opt out after year 3 or 4. 6-7 year deal with an opt out after 3-4 years sounds great if we can backload it. $18m., $20m., $22m., $24m., $26m., $28m., $30m with opt out after 3 years. it sure wouldn't be great if prince starts to suck No realistic contract would be great if he starts to suck.

They almost certainly wouldn't accept that, but they might accept a 6-7 year deal written so Fielder could opt out after year 3 or 4. 6-7 year deal with an opt out after 3-4 years sounds great if we can backload it. $18m., $20m., $22m., $24m., $26m., $28m., $30m with opt out after 3 years.

One of my problems is that Theo seems to be following Hendry in adding veteran "filler" in spots where prospects could easily do the same job (i.e. Johnson, Corpas, etc.). If we're going to suck next year, let's see what the kids can do.

Taking 2 years to rebuild a large market team to be "ready" to compete in the NL Central isn't what I envisioned when we hired the boy genius. As many have posted, there's no reason the Cubs can't rebuild while fielding a decent team in 2012 and "a factor in the NL Central" in 2013.

Are you being facetious? Cardinals may be old and just lost their top player, but I really don't think that The Cubs are a threat to anyone whose main goal for next season isn't a top 3 draft pick for 2013. Fixed, since you didn't get the sarcasm.

You must be the most patient person on earth because all of these players and prospects we're talking about would be nearing the end of their careers. Theo needs to start looking at 8th graders.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-your-morning-phil-yankees-cespedes-hamilton-20111220,0,5791888.story So we now know that Theo's plan is to suck for 2 more years and then be a factor in the NL Central race. I suppose we can look forward to a WS Championship by 2025. 2012 + 2 = 2025? Forgive me, my math sucks. There's a big difference in Roger's quote (being a factor in the weak NL Central in 2 years - not necessarily winning it) and what I posted (winning a WS Championship). If we went through all of this hype and expense to get Theo so we could become "a factor in the NL Central", then we could have hired someone else or even kept Hendry.

I predict this move will push the Cards ahead of the Cubs next year. =D>

I've seen comparisons of Montero to Cabrera, so hopefully he could handle 1B. If Dunn can do it, I think Montero should be able to do it. Just don't expect any Gold Gloves.

Well you can offer your opinion as to what that report states, but the bottom line is that the Cubs weren't even close to the winning bid.

Andrew Marchand reported the Cubs bid around $20 million. There were other reports that the Cubs' bid was "substantial." The likelihood is that nobody actually knows the Cubs' bid other than that it was lower than the Rangers'. The report you quoted could just as easily only have known those three bids and no others rather than intentionally posting the top 3 bids by amount. How would they know 3 bids and not any others?

Two of these proposals give us 2 prospects. I would think Garza should net us at least 3.

The latest Darvish rumors (i.e. made-up stuff from reporters) is that the Cubs' $20-millionish bid was more in line with everyone but Texas's. The latest Darvish rumors (i.e. made-up stuff from reporters) is that the Cubs' $20-millionish bid was more in line with everyone but Texas's. From MLBTR: Rangers Won Darvish Bidding Easily By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 21 at 10:33pm CST] The Rangers won the rights to Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish with a $51.7MM bid this week and though the Toronto Star reported yesterday that the Blue Jays weren't far behind, reports today indicate the Rangers outbid rival teams by a significant margin. Jeff Blair said this morning on Sportsnet 590 the FAN that the Blue Jays "did not bid $50MM, as the Toronto Star is reporting. That's totally, absolutely false and inaccurate" (hat tip Drunk Jays Fans). Buster Olney of ESPN.com believes the Blue Jays were in, but not close and suggests “nobody, including Toronto, was within country miles” of the Rangers’ bid (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com agrees that no one else was close. The Rangers easily out-bid the Blue Jays and the Yankees bid in the $15-17MM range, according to Heyman. Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 232 innings this past season and he hasn't posted an ERA above 2.00 since 2007. The Rangers have until January 18th to work out a deal with him. If the sides don't agree to a deal by next month's deadline, Darvish will stay in Japan and the Nippon Ham Fighters won't obtain any cash from the Rangers. The way I interpret this report is that the Rangers easily beat out the Blue Jays (2nd in bidding) and the Yankees (3rd in the bidding) who bid $15-$17 million, so the best that the Cubs could do was come in 4th at less than $15-$17 million. I stand by my statement that Theo's bid was a joke since everyone was assuming the winning bid would be around $50 million.

The question is, judging by what we have now in the big leagues and the farm, how long will it take to build a consistant winner? I know a lot of us grew up watching God awful temas, but that was before we got a taste of what it was like to root for a team that could actually win, and do it in more than 1 season at a time. Unless they push hard to acquire some top prospects and international guys like Cespedes and Solar, things are going to get ugly. Exactly what I've been saying. Assuming everything goes right, I don't see a "decent" team until 2014. If a few things go wrong (Brett Jackson not delivering as hoped, missing out on the Cubans, Stewart not delivering, etc.), it could be ugly through 2015.

It's the 2nd month, and it's almost the 3rd. And those were the two most important months of the year for putting together any semblence of a competitive team in 2012. . Aside from Darvish, the main guys we were speculating on signing are all still on the market, 2 of which aren't even officially available. I know everyone wanted Pujols, but even if we was an outside option, once Marlins, Cardinals, and finally Angels offers were made we werent going to come near that. If moves I don't like happen, I'll be right with everyone else bitching about them, but I'm not going to turn on Eptein and Hoyer just yet. If the Opening day roster looks anything like it does now, it will be hard to swallow, but we I'll give him until at least next year around this time. The fact is that our farm system alone isnt going to get us anywhere anytime soon. As far as near big league ready guys go, we have Lake, Vitters, Jackson, and McNutt. However, the guys we're really relying on are between 17-19 and at least 3-5 away from the big leagues, and who knows how many of them will even make it to AA. Will Theo make a serious bid on the 2 Cubans? His bid on Darvish must have been a joke by the accounts that I've read.

The first two didn't strongly impact our chances of contending, I don't think. Stewart could be horrid, but could be pretty good too. DeJesus would actually be exactly the type of productive value player we'd need to offset bringing in impact FAs and paying them as such. The reason this team has basically no chance to contend next year and very little chance in 2013 is passing on Darvish and Pujols, and possibly Prince. This team needs impact players in order to be able to contend, and two of the three that would have fit this team are off the board and there's very realistic doubt that we'll be involved with the third. Yes, Stewart COULD be good. There's a better chance that he sucks. A big market team that's interested in contending doesn't count on a player like that to play a corner infield position. I agree with your point on DeJesus, if we were actually interested in surrounding him with impact FAs. Which to this point, there is no indication that we are doing. The Cubs are going to HAVE to spend on free agents eventually. Next time, we probably won't be so lucky that both the Yankees and Red Sox won't be in on any of them. I don't have a problem with DeJesus, but selling off everything for prospects that might be good in 3-4 years doesn't seem like the answer to a big market team. Not only might the Yankees and Red Sox be in on future FAs, but you also give the Cards and Brewers time to rebound from the loss of their sluggers.

Is that new? My twitter says that's new. The Chicago Tribune article made it sound like someone had stepped in and banned the Cubs from any further Red Sox hires. It makes a whole lot more sense that the Cubs and Sox agreed on that arrangement and that must be considered part of the compensation. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-report-cubs-facing-ban-on-more-red-sox-hires-20111220,0,7066821.story After I saw this notice, I saw that Theo hired 3 scouts from the Red Sox. :lol:

Well put. It seems like people are more upset about this because Theo and Jed did it and not Hendry. Fact is, Hendry gave $900,000 to a guy coming of a 74 OPS+ season, and while I thought the $1.5 was legit (my bad) it seems like they might give him what... $1.2 or $1.3 million... after a 122 OPS+ season? I don't expect Johnson to fully recreate those numbers one iota, but we could do a whole lot worse, and there aren't many options out there that can do a whole lot better at the price. The fact is there are better options out there for approximately $1 million more - Andruw Jones. I understand many posters remaining positive (or trying to), but if we're being honest Theo/Hoyer has sucked this offseason and "rebuilding" has pushed back "contending" for probably an additional 2 years. While you're listing all of the accomplishments, let's not forget that he passed up Darvish, probably Fielder, Pujols, etc. Now if he manages to sign the 2 Cubans and pull off a big trade or two, then we can talk about a good offseason. Yes he did pass on Pojuls, for 10/270, who will be 34 years old by the time we can put together a really good team around him. he passed taking a risk on a starter for likely close to 20 mil a year. Who will only have 2 years left on his deal by the time we build a really good team around him. He hasn't passed on Fielder yet. By the moves he's making so far, Castro will be 34 years old by the time we can put together a really good team around him. :lol:

Well put. It seems like people are more upset about this because Theo and Jed did it and not Hendry. Fact is, Hendry gave $900,000 to a guy coming of a 74 OPS+ season, and while I thought the $1.5 was legit (my bad) it seems like they might give him what... $1.2 or $1.3 million... after a 122 OPS+ season? I don't expect Johnson to fully recreate those numbers one iota, but we could do a whole lot worse, and there aren't many options out there that can do a whole lot better at the price. The fact is there are better options out there for approximately $1 million more - Andruw Jones. I understand many posters remaining positive (or trying to), but if we're being honest Theo/Hoyer has sucked this offseason and "rebuilding" has pushed back "contending" for probably an additional 2 years. While you're listing all of the accomplishments, let's not forget that he passed up Darvish, probably Fielder, Pujols, etc. Now if he manages to sign the 2 Cubans and pull off a big trade or two, then we can talk about a good offseason.

So he's Joey Gathright/Felix Pie reincarnated. Wait, don't we already have Tony Campana? what the [expletive] does he actually have in common with Felix Pie??? Speed, strikes out twice as often as he walks, no power.

How is this "breaking news"? Theo has been dumpster diving for the last few weeks and has offered to trade anyone that anyone will take (except Castro). As for Fielder, any of you posters who think we've been serious bidders have been smoking something.

So far Theo has Hendry beat by a mile in the category "Worst Offseason by a GM".

Theo's a great shopper. Just think that for a little more money he could have signed Andruw Jones and would have been stuck with a guy who can play all 3 OF positions and actually has a little power.