Backtobanks

Bradley, Soriano, Fukudome, Hawkins..etc.... you might remember them. I don't know whether the Cubs will be good or entertaining, but they appear to have a plan and I'm willing to give them time to see how it takes shape. I admit being less patient than most posters on NSBB, but I wonder how much time we give them before fans start to get upset. My first expectations were a decent team in 2012 and a contender in 2013. I've accepted the new strategy of rebuilding, but I think it should only push back expectations 1 year. If we aren't serious contenders with a solid roster in 2014 and every year thereafter, then Theo is not doing his job. All of this 4-5 year talk is BS.

I guess my question is, who do they spend those eleventy bajillion dollars on? The FA pitching class next year looks really good right now, but is it smart to give out two 5+ year, huge money deals to 28-29 year old pitchers with lots of mileage? Let's say we sign one of Cain/Hamels/Greinke (if any of them hit FA, which I think only Greinke is likely to do), where else do we spend that money? I think real contention in 2013 at this point hinges on keeping Garza. If we trade him, I think we have to pursue a couple of top FA pitchers next offseason (since Wood would be our best starter) and possibly a big bat as well if Cespedes and Rizzo don't break out quickly. If we keep Garza, I think we're in a similar position in the 2012 offseason as we were at the start of this offseason - get a couple of impact type players and you have a shot at contention if the rest of the division is less than stellar. I still think contention in 2014 and dominance in 2015 is the most likely route, and most realistic by far, at this point. Though with Theo/Jed at the helm, I wouldn't necessarily rule anything out. That's been my concern all along. Young players/prospects are great, but again there is no guarantee that they will reach their potential. The strategy is based on some/many of these young players developing into solid ML players (not a sure thing), signing top FAs when the team is ready (assuming the players make it to free agency and the teams like the Yankees and Red Sox decide to let us outbid them), and trading from our now-deep farm system for productive players when the team is ready to contend. I have faith in Theo, but I think he had better get serious before opening day 2013 about having a solid core of players on the field if there's any hope of contending in 2014.

Well I've been a Cub fan for 57 years and my patience is wearing a little thin.

I'd argue the problem for the Orioles right now is a) Some of their young arms have really faltered and have serious concerns (Matusz/Tillman). They had four young arms they were looking forward to ... right now, of that foursome (the aforementioned duo and Britton/Arrieta), they look to have 1 good starter, 1 inconsistent starter, and 2 gigantic question marks. No team should ever realistically hope that 4/4 top prospect arms should hit, but it sure feel like they expected 3 of them to. b) A relatively weak system. A couple stud guys in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, but really, this system is pretty bad right now. There's Schoop, a whole bunch of folks from this draft class (which doesn't look that great), Bobby Bundy. c) (and why I responded) A lack of quality trade chips/trade chips they over-value. I'm not sure too many teams are going to fork over the quality assets that the Orioles believe they should get for Nick Markakis and Jeremy Guthrie, but the Orioles aren't moving them unless it's a quality return. Markakis' power decline has a lot of folks alarmed, and he's signed down for fairly big money (3/42 left with an additional option year at 17.5 or a 3 mil buyout). Guthrie's a Randy Wells/Chris Volstad/Travis Wood level pitcher masquerading as an ace and not exactly cheap. Brian Roberts is an injury prone 2nd baseman now, past his prime, and still locked down for 2/20. Reynolds is Mark Reynolds, a poor fieldng slugger. One of the few guys they should trade (only 2 years until FA) is Adam Jones. Jones, though, is a tough guy to value. Orioles look at him as an emerging stud, while a lot of folks look at his as a poor fielding, questionable discipline guy. They want elite chips ... I'm not sure teams are going to give elite chips for him. Good, perhaps. One guy I would move, if I were them, is JJ Hardy, but I doubt they'll do so. I don't know if he can replicate the offensive season he just had, so this might be peak sell time. In regards to C, its somewhat of a testemet to why our front office team is so valuable. It could be said that we have our own share of players we over value and lack of good trade chips. However, aside from Garza who has real value our guys are willing to move guys for packages that might not look wins at the time but are best for us. Sometimes when a trade is made its OK to let the other guy walking away feeling like they won as long as you get something you really need in return for May something that doesn't fit in with your plans. For example, acquiring Volstad and minimal salary relief for Zambrano may have seemed like a win for the Marlins, especially if Ozzie can keep Z in line and get a great back end starter out of him, and that's what he'd be there with JJ, Buehrle, Sanchez, and Nolasco in the rotation. Volstad may have seen like junk to most of us, but Theo loves these former top prospects who are still young enough that theres a glimmer of hope that he can be useful for us long after Big Z would be gone anyway. Let's not give "our guys" too much credit. Any team trading ML talent for prospects doesn't look like a "win", but they think it's what's best for them. Obviously, the team receiving the ML talent (Marlins) are in a win-now mode while the Cubs are in a rebuilding mode.

For that to happen you're going to need a lot of things to go right (Jackson, Stewart, Lahair, Volsted/Wells, etc.). After many years of so much going wrong for the Cubs (mostly injuries), maybe they're due to have some good things happen.

I'd argue the problem for the Orioles right now is a) Some of their young arms have really faltered and have serious concerns (Matusz/Tillman). They had four young arms they were looking forward to ... right now, of that foursome (the aforementioned duo and Britton/Arrieta), they look to have 1 good starter, 1 inconsistent starter, and 2 gigantic question marks. No team should ever realistically hope that 4/4 top prospect arms should hit, but it sure feel like they expected 3 of them to. b) A relatively weak system. A couple stud guys in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, but really, this system is pretty bad right now. There's Schoop, a whole bunch of folks from this draft class (which doesn't look that great), Bobby Bundy. c) (and why I responded) A lack of quality trade chips/trade chips they over-value. I'm not sure too many teams are going to fork over the quality assets that the Orioles believe they should get for Nick Markakis and Jeremy Guthrie, but the Orioles aren't moving them unless it's a quality return. Markakis' power decline has a lot of folks alarmed, and he's signed down for fairly big money (3/42 left with an additional option year at 17.5 or a 3 mil buyout). Guthrie's a Randy Wells/Chris Volstad/Travis Wood level pitcher masquerading as an ace and not exactly cheap. Brian Roberts is an injury prone 2nd baseman now, past his prime, and still locked down for 2/20. Reynolds is Mark Reynolds, a poor fieldng slugger. One of the few guys they should trade (only 2 years until FA) is Adam Jones. Jones, though, is a tough guy to value. Orioles look at him as an emerging stud, while a lot of folks look at his as a poor fielding, questionable discipline guy. They want elite chips ... I'm not sure teams are going to give elite chips for him. Good, perhaps. One guy I would move, if I were them, is JJ Hardy, but I doubt they'll do so. I don't know if he can replicate the offensive season he just had, so this might be peak sell time. If they're really worried about Markakis, I'll gladly do a Markakis for Soriano + $10-$15 million trade. Somehow I don't think they're that worried.

From MLBTR: •Talks between the Orioles and Cubs were probably not very serious, sources told Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. Dan Duquette doesn't want to spend heavily on a designated hitter and even if the Cubs ate about 80% of the $54MM owed to Soriano, the O's would still be on the hook for $3-4MM for each of the next three seasons

The only point I disagree with is "sooner than you think". If Theo is going to take 4-5 years, then I will be disappointed because he has the resources to do it sooner.

LaHair won't have any trade value. He might be a throw-in on a deal to an AL club.

Can't quite tell if he's saying that there's still the chance of going after Fielder or if there never was a legit pursuit. From every other move Theo has made (before Rizzo), I don't believe we were ever really "in" on Fielder. Maybe if he would've accepted a 3-year contract, Theo might have gone for it.

LaHair is going to have to really stink on a 65-70 win team not to be able to hold the job until Rizzo is ready.

The whole consent thing kind of reminds me of Borat walking down the street and asking every woman "Do you want to have sex with me?" (in a heavy foreign accent). Obviously Castro made a very bad decision, but I think it will be hard to get an arrest (let alone conviction) with the woman so drunk that she passed out being able to keep her story straight.

Hendry's vision was pushed by his superiors and that was go out and buy a winning team. We don't know what would have happened this year if Ricketts told him to rebuild the whole team.

Why not? There are multiple people that think the 2012 Cubs will be a .500 team too.

Obviously Hendry screwed up by drafting him. Thank god Theo won't make these kinds of mistakes.

Sure things - Jackson, Cashner, Soto/Castillo?

Hoyer can't be high profile when you have Theo looking over your shoulder.

That's why us fans should be patient and see what the team looks like in spring training. Remember we still have a good amount of money to spend and there's still plenty of good free agents on the market. Personally I would be shocked if this team payroll is below 120-125 million come opening day and still think they will be competitive next season. According to the media this team is rebuilding and next season doesn't matter, but I don't believe that. Are they retooling with a long term version towards the future? Yes and they are willing to trade assets for a high price. But none of the moves they made so far has thrown away next season either. They signed DeJesus which helps next years team, they traded Marshall but got a SP back to pitch in the majors next year. Losing Marshall hurts the pen, but you will like have Cashner there this season and have other good young relievers to fill in. They traded Colvin/LeMahieu but got Ian Stewart to be their third baseman next season. Now they swapped Zambrano who pitched like a back end starter last year and got a back end starter in return to replace him. Both have upside to pitch better due to Zambrano past history and Volstad talent/upside/age. So is the team better? Well you can make a case that the defense has improved with DeJesus and Stewart. You can make a case that the rotation is younger/deeper then last season. While the bullpen might not be as good. It can still be pretty good with Cashner likely taking Marshall spot and Wood to still resign. DeJesus is a upgrade in RF offensivly and you can make a case Stewart could come close to matching Carlos Pena offensive production from last year. Yes so far we added nobody who could replace Ramirez bat yet. But we also don't know yet who is playing first next season yet either. Or if they are going to get rid of Soriano and replace him with a better bat(you gotta hope Soto hits better next season as well). My point is this team hasn't done anything yet to make me think they will suck way worse then 2010-2011 and I think they could even be better. Is better enough to be a playoff team? Probably not unless things really go there way. But I don't see any of this throwing away next year yet, especially when they have money to spend and good free agents still available. Of course we could trade Garza, Soto, Byrd and Marmol and that could all change. But right now that's all media hype and rumors. Plus who says they don't get a young front in starter ready to take over for Garza back in the deal if that does happen? Or don't go out and sign a SP to replace Garza. My point is this off season is still incomplete, they can still go in the direction of adding players to make them better and have the money to do so. I'm sure they will still consider selling off assets for high return. But I believe Theo when he says they aren't going to just punt away next season either. So far none of these off season moves would suggest that (most of players added help next season and beyond) and there still in the position to sign and trade for players who improve the major league team next year. You have to be the most optimistic poster here or you're totally delusional. I'm betting on delusional.

Why would we be interested when we have Lahair and Stewart? :lol:

Right. Signing Fielder right now would be a more prudent move than waiting for Votto (who may or may not even make it to FA). Banking on potential free agents not to be extended by their team or traded and extended while passing on current FAs is a flawed and dangerous strategy. That's my problem with Theo's plan. Waiting until the time is right to spend on FAs might not ever happen and if they do happen you have to outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. Those teams took this offseason off, the Cards and Brewers lost the hearts of their lineups, and we are hoping for a 70-win season.

When Ricketts hired Theo, he said Theo would be totally in charge of all baseball decisions. That means the buck stops on Theo's desk.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTR doesn't think we could get LoMo for Garza even up.

I take back anything bad I said about Theo.

LoMo is really stretching it unless we're including a top prospect and paying the vast majority of Z's contract.

The spirit of Jim Hendry lives on.