98navigator

DLee flies out to deep center

Riot comes through!

Sori beaned

Aramis, that play needed to be made

he's not 100% so he didn't feel comfortable. That's the only explanation.

He must still be gimpy

Which 2? Last time Snell pitched he got in a bases loaded jam halfway into the game, and we scored, 4 (I believe) off him. Snell was wild against the Cubs, and they capitalized by being patient, but he and Gorzelanny have been the anchors of their rotation. They are two of the top pitchers in the League. # NAME TEAM LG YEAR G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA PK_RA RA+ RP VORP BABIP 1. Tim Hudson ATL NL 2007 7 7 53.0 6.11 2.04 5.94 0.34 1.70 1.70 1.72 2.55 15.7 21.3 .230 2. Brad Penny LAN NL 2007 7 7 45.3 7.54 3.38 5.76 0.00 1.39 1.59 1.60 2.75 14.0 18.9 .284 3. John Maine NYN NL 2007 6 6 39.3 5.49 4.12 8.47 0.46 1.37 1.37 1.40 3.12 13.0 17.2 .232 4. Rich Hill CHN NL 2007 6 6 41.7 5.62 2.59 7.13 0.65 1.73 1.73 1.70 2.57 12.4 16.8 .213 5. Jake Peavy SDN NL 2007 7 7 46.3 5.83 2.91 10.88 0.19 1.75 2.14 2.21 1.98 11.2 16.1 .266 6. Roy Oswalt HOU NL 2007 8 8 57.0 7.26 3.00 5.37 0.95 3.00 3.00 2.96 1.48 9.0 15.1 .235 7. Jeff Suppan MIL NL 2007 7 7 48.0 9.56 1.69 5.06 0.38 2.63 2.81 2.81 1.56 8.4 13.5 .325 8. Ian Snell PIT NL 2007 6 6 39.0 6.46 3.46 7.15 0.46 2.31 2.31 2.30 1.90 9.0 13.2 .241 9. Jason Marquis CHN NL 2007 6 6 38.7 6.28 3.03 4.42 0.47 2.09 2.33 2.28 1.92 9.0 13.1 .207 10. Mark Hendrickson LAN NL 2007 6 3 27.7 4.55 1.63 7.81 0.33 1.30 1.30 1.30 3.37 9.5 12.2 .206 11. Braden Looper SLN NL 2007 7 7 44.0 8.18 2.86 5.32 0.41 2.66 2.86 2.86 1.53 7.5 12.2 .284 12. Heath Bell SDN NL 2007 16 0 20.7 3.05 1.74 10.02 0.00 0.44 0.44 0.44 9.86 9.0 10.9 .159 13. Kyle Lohse CIN NL 2007 7 7 47.7 9.82 1.70 6.04 0.76 3.21 3.40 3.31 1.32 5.7 10.8 .320 14. Jamie Moyer PHI NL 2007 6 6 41.0 6.80 3.07 5.93 0.22 2.85 3.07 3.11 1.41 5.8 10.2 .250 15. Livan Hernandez ARI NL 2007 7 7 45.0 7.60 5.60 4.20 0.20 3.20 3.40 3.35 1.31 5.2 10.0 .262 16. Matt Cain SFN NL 2007 6 6 38.0 4.74 4.97 5.92 0.47 3.08 3.08 3.05 1.44 5.6 9.7 .182 17. Bronson Arroyo CIN NL 2007 7 7 47.3 7.23 2.85 6.65 0.19 2.85 3.61 3.52 1.25 4.5 9.6 .278 18. Tom Gorzelanny PIT NL 2007 6 6 39.3 7.78 2.52 5.49 0.23 2.97 3.20 3.20 1.37 5.2 9.4 .277 19. Ted Lilly CHN NL 2007 6 6 38.3 7.04 1.41 8.92 0.47 2.82 3.29 3.21 1.37 5.0 9.1 .283

This series scares me. Snell and Gorzelanny can both be tough and even though Maholm is terrible, he's left handed and the Cubs haven't fared well against lefties in recent history (nor have they faced many this season--now they see two in the series). Gorzelanny only gave up 2 runs in 7IP versus the Brewers the last time out and it was the only game in that series the Pirates won. I hope the Cubs don't take them for granted.

This is an interesting podcast of WGN radio's Dave Kaplan and BP's Joe Sheenan from yesterday. Sheenan covers his expectations of the Cubs, Zambrano, and Barrett among other things. podcast

We can't do anything about off days. Hopefully, the Cubs take care of the Pirates tomorrow.

That run was later forced in on a bases loaded walk: TLR ordered an IBB to a batter with a 2-1 count to load the bases only to have the next batter force in a run. :headscratcher: Rockies win 3-2 Houston survives the 9th to win 5-4 over the Reds

Wheeler gives up a 2 run homer in the 9th with no outs 5-4 Hou ridiculous

I just re-read the thread, and other than navigator's point replying to you just above, nobody has said that the Brewers will fall just because they are the Brewers. So I'm not really sure who you're responding to. Just to be clear, I wasn't saying that either, just making a counter point to the "history" argument. Anyway, we all know that's nonsense on both sides because trackrecord has very little to do with this season (other than the career numbers of the individual players involved).

The Reds bullpen strikes again. Todd Coffey just served up a 3 run homer to Luke Scott. Hou 5, Reds 2 top 8

because they aren't? really? because the standings say otherwise. unfortunately, the division winner is determined by the standings and not a position by position >/= contest. the brewers are going to have to completely collapse or suffer some serious injuries for them not to be in contention all season. are you implying that baseball standings after a month and some change is an accurate rating system? that's not like you, dog. everyone wants to look at RS/RA, which is fine...the cubs should have a better record. but they don't, and those losses are in the past. it may show that the cubs can play up the level of the brewers the rest of the season, but the losses that happened (whether they mathematically should have or not) can't be changed. even if the cubs improve and brewers get worse starting from this date, the cubs are still in a five game hole. It's May 7th. Man I don't think anyone has came from 5 back with 130 to play. But go ahead and break your own arm patting yourself on the back about the Brewers being a good team, at least that way it will be a change from your gloating about how you knew Rich Hill was great. seriously dude, can you point to a recent post of mine where i gloat about being right about rich hill? because i'm damn positive that people talk about how i brag about being right about rich hill far more than i actually brag about being right about rich hill. and i never said the cubs couldn't come back from five games out. that's stupid. i don't know why you cool aid drinking cub fans continue to assume that the teams ahead of the cubs will fall back and the cubs will surge forward...have you not followed the cubs for say, the last 100 years? if think the brewers are a losing franchise that doesn't deserve to win the division, what do you call the cubs? mmmmmm, "cool aid." You have selective memory. The 2003 Cubs, for a variety of reasons, were able to surge forward and win the division... Seriously, you're entitled to your opinion but there's no reason to call out people that don't agree; there's certainly more than one way to look at this thing. BTW, since you highlighted the Cubs presumed inability to win due to their history, what about the Brewers recent history suggests that they can sustain a lead? Absolutely nothing.

I have no idea what you mean by "collapse." If you are predicting that the Cubs staff will start to give up more runs as the weather gets warmer, that will be a universal trend in baseball. The warmer weather will also benefit their offense. The Cubs staff has been pitching to conditions; they know when the flags are flying in at Wrigley Field that they can challenge hitters. However, they haven't been giving up an inordinate amount of home runs on the road (and the Cubs have played a few games in very warm conditions already). Also, I think it's foolish to discredit their pitching to this point. The weather didn't do much to aid Wade Miller's pitching. Ted Lilly and Rich Hill are the two predominant fly ball pitchers in the rotation. Hill pitched in Wrigley Field last summer without too many issues and Lilly is smart enough to use his sinker and curve ball (strike out pitch) when the wind is blowing out. Hell, Ted Lilly has a career 4.53 ERA in the American League. His move to the NL can only be a boast to his numbers. IMO, both are capable of posting sub 4 ERAs. Last season Jason Marquis gave up a career high 35 home runs. This season, he seemingly has rediscovered his sinker ball. I expect him to give up more runs over time but that doesn't mean he will end the year near his career worst 2006 numbers. Zambrano's increased production and, what appears to be, an improvement at the fifth starter slot, will help to offset any decline from Marquis. None of that is a collapse... You've already predicted that the Brewers will begin to score fewer runs but you seem to be suggesting that the team's pitching will remain constant (which is inexplicable). Dave Bush, Claudio Vargas, and Chris Capuano are all plus 4 career ERA guys who (in the case of Capuano and Vargas) are overachieving. Like Jason Marquis, expect their numbers to decline as the season progresses. Also, there is no guarantee that the bullpen won't regress and Sheets' health will continue to be a question. The expected decline in the Brewers pitching, coupled with your own predicted decline in hitting, doesn't bode well for the future.

Errors like this really get to me. How does this make it to print? Someone made that mistake nationally (perhaps there was a press release of probable starters?). I was listening to the Reds radio feed yesterday, on Gameday Audio, and when they updated the Cubs score the announcers also mentioned that Rich Hill (not Guzman) was pitching...

because they aren't? really? because the standings say otherwise. unfortunately, the division winner is determined by the standings and not a position by position >/= contest. the brewers are going to have to completely collapse or suffer some serious injuries for them not to be in contention all season. are you implying that baseball standings after a month and some change is an accurate rating system? that's not like you, dog. everyone wants to look at RS/RA, which is fine...the cubs should have a better record. but they don't, and those losses are in the past. it may show that the cubs can play up the level of the brewers the rest of the season, but the losses that happened (whether they mathematically should have or not) can't be changed. even if the cubs improve and brewers get worse starting from this date, the cubs are still in a five game hole. Both teams will play 162 games so the Cubs are in a 4 game "hole." After tonight, the Brewers will have played 3 more games than the Cubs. Right now, the Cubs have lost 14 games and the brewers have lost 10 games.

The numbers are all close but keep in mind that the Brewers have played 2 more games. League Pitching Tm R/G RA G ERA IP H H/G BB BB/G HR SO CG SHO SV ERA+hmR/G rdR/G MIL 4.10 127 31 3.49 281 276 8.9 90 2.9 24 220 2 0 13 115 3.50 4.92 CHC 3.72 108 29 3.52 266 229 7.9 98 3.4 29 216 0 0 7 118 3.75 3.69 League Batting Tm R/G R G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+hmR/G rdR/G MIL 5.06 157 31 1081 294 66 6 38 106 204 .272 .341 .450 18 7 115 5.89 3.92 CHC 4.90 142 29 1036 285 75 4 25 96 187 .275 .340 .428 12 8 106 4.81 5.00

I don't agree with the over managing but I do think Lou has a method to his madness. He's also very aware of the guys on the opponent's bench and will hold certain relievers for anticipated match ups... I think some of what was done yesterday is a product of the off day today.

I think Pagan's defensive prowess is overrated (not that anyone has said he's on Pie's level). I saw him take many bad routes last season and many balls got by him.

My issue was more with the constant bullpen shuffling. Why does Wuertz get yanked after one batter because he walked him but Eyre stays in after his first batter gets a double? My guess is because Eyre has been used the least. Also, Lou knows that Eyre needs help regaining his confidence and there are only so many blowouts... It's not like Scott Eyre is going to be traded or released; He's going to be a fixture in the 'pen so he has to start pitching better so that the team can benefit from his presence. The scary part is that lefties are hitting him well.

Development is a long run story. If his development is compromised now, that has long-term implications. Pie will not develop as a PH and defensive substitution. That wasn't my point. If he spends a few weeks or months on the Cubs bench before eventually playing everyday (in Chicago or Iowa) he should be able to adjust and continue his progression.

The flip side is Lou has no problem benching or moving around veterans to get Theriot in the lineup and he was willing to take a chance on Cedeno rather than recommend that Hendry find a bench player in Spring Training (or choose a retread like Tomas Perez). Lou will play the less experienced players if they produce. Short term, Pie's development may be compromised but in the long run I think he will be fine coming off the bench as a PH, as a defensive substitution, and occasional starter.

because they aren't? really? because the standings say otherwise. unfortunately, the division winner is determined by the standings and not a position by position >/= contest. the brewers are going to have to completely collapse or suffer some serious injuries for them not to be in contention all season. are you implying that baseball standings after a month and some change is an accurate rating system? that's not like you, dog. I think it's accurate to say they've played better than us so far. Whether that means they are better in the final analysis will depend on what happens to them in July/August/Sept, which has recently been when they pull a fade. I think there's something different about this bunch though. They'll taper off, but I still think they'll at least challenge all year. If the Cubs can keep getting these great pitching performances, hopefully we can match them. Could be a nice little divisional race in the Central that *doesn't* involve the Stros or the Cards. That would be a welcome change, probably for a lot of people, not just Cubs/Brewers fans. I took a look at the Cubs and Brewers schedules for June and I see that they have 4 interleague series (two on the road) in June, while the Cubs have three interleague series. MIL @ TEX 6/8-6/10 CHC @ ATL 6/8-6/10 MIL @ DET 6/12-6/14 SEA @ CHC 6/12-6/14 MIL @ MIN 6/15-6/17 SD @ CHC 6/15-6/17 SF @ MIL 6/18-6/20 CHC @ TEX 6/19-6/21 KC @ MIL 6/22-6/24 CHC @ CWS 6/22-6/24 MIL @ CHC 6/29-7/01 From the Cubs' perspective, I think playing the Rangers and Sox on the road is a plus this year (compared to last season's punch-less club) because it will allow for Jones, Murton, and Floyd (DH) to all play in the games at the same time. Of course, I'm hoping the Brewers will have their hands full with Detroit, Texas, and the Twins (not to mention KC).