third eye

WHY NOT!?! Heh, fair point. Also, what the heck is pinto? Is this a baseball musings reference? Let me ask a different question - It seems that, on the whole, people are fairly optimistic that the back end of the bullpen will have a strong year. If that is the case, and we think that the peripherals of the top 3 in the rotation don't regress much, why the bump up in ERAs for Z and Lilly? I would think that the strength of defense and the fact that people dont expect that many inherited baserunners to score (strength of bullpen), would lead to an expectation of similar or better performances out of the top 3 in the rotation in terms of ERA.

Just a point of curiosity - I hardly see anyone rounding their predicted numbers to the nearest .005 or .010. Why so specific on the precision of the numbers?

Look at Greene's splits away from PetCo park. A case can be made that, for a SS, he's actually quite a bit better than average to below average at the plate when he's not playing at the best pitchers park in baseball. He's a fly-ball hitter and that park just is not kind to his numbers. Or he was better on the road because he likes when people are yelling at him and hassling him. Or he doesnt feel pressure on the road like he does at home. No one knows. I agree that PetCo is a harder park to hit HR's in, but no one is for certain that he would put up his road numbers all the time if he was on the Cubs. OR, you can actually look at a log of the deep fly ball outs he made at Petco and SEE that, based on dimensions alone, those would have been HRs at Wrigley. This is not about making guesses about a player's mental aptitude in different situations. This argument is about actually being able to count the number of deep flyouts an extreme flyball hitter made that would have been HRs in other parks.

I think Meph/Deucebaseman/Wrigley23 are all the same person.

Thats how I remembered it. I thought it became clear at the end of the year that his asking price had gotten too high and they made no real effort to resign him.

Come on, do you seriously never read any of the responses to your posts?? I don't mean to pile on or be disrespectful, but it seems pretty clear at this point that you are just trying to get a rise out of people here. Otherwise what is the point of posting your opinion (and responding to other posts) if you have no interest in reading or acknowledging anyone's response to yours?

The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball "The disruptive runner has an enormously negative influence on the batter, enough to almost completely offset the disruption caused to the defense." They estimate the total gain is .002 points of wOBA. Meanwhile, I seem to recall other studies that point towards it actually hurting the batter significantly. Interestingly enough, The Book seems to indicate that on the whole, a baserunner at first with less than two outs helps the batter... but the faster the runner on first, the worse the batter does. Thanks! I'll check the book out. I guess it has been referenced a number of times on this board. My bad. So that must explain Neifi's performance with Juan on base in front of him 8-[

I asked this as part of another post in transactions, but it doesn't belong there. Let me ask it here: Has anyone seen stats for league-wide OPS for batters with a runner on base with 30+ steals the previous season? I haven't seen the numbers to refute/support whether speed on base disrupts a pitcher, and I am stubbornly holding on to the fact that it does until I see otherwise. Happy to admit I'm wrong if the stats disagree.

No, I get tired of you (or anyone else) saying that because Lou or Hendry or Steve Stone or Jesus Christ agrees with you than you're right. If you want to argue something, make an argument. "Steve Stone says so" doesn't count. Wrigley23, I understand the point of view that someone who does something for a living has more expertise in a given field and is privy to information that the rest of the world isn't. Working in finance, I usually take offense to people trying to beat the market on a hunch or a tip, because there are people with better models and greater resources on the other side of any trade. But I think that line of thinking doesn’t work as well in a baseball context. The difference is, with baseball, most of the information about player performance, potential and likely outcomes is readily available. Additionally, an organization's philosophy generally can be easily surmised by the public record of their player development and personnel decisions. Let’s look at a couple of public facts: (1) Jim Hendry, when questioned a couple of years ago about the team's inability to get on base, responded by claiming that getting on base was not the problem. He argued the team was towards the top of the league in batting average, completely disregarding the fact that they were near the bottom in OBP. His inference was that the problem was driving runners in scoring position in. However, the team was no worse that league average with runners in scoring position. (2) There are other GMs around the league who value advanced statistics in evaluating players. I would point to the following quote by the new GM of the pirates, Neal Huntington (not that this will make him successful, but just noting that others out there think about these things). "We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating." (3) This is a personal anecdote - On Steven Levitt's blog a few months ago, he lobbied for his grad assistant to get a job with a major league team. I went to grad school with that assistant, and he get got plenty of interest from a number of MLB teams, but noted that the Cubs front office had no interest in someone with his background. Now, given the public nature of facts like these, and the team's track record for addressing its weaknesses, it SHOULD be perfectly reasonably for me to question the judgment of the front office. In particular, this organization has always employed people with a "great baseball pedigree". Forget that Theo Epstein (again, not that he is the best GM) wouldn't fall into that bucket. Hey, people who worked in mortgage securitizations, or with rating agencies and trading desks had a great "subprime pedigree". That doesn't mean that the people who noted the housing market was way out of whack, even though they didn’t work in it, had no basis for judgment. But with baseball, the information is far more transparent. It is totally reasonable for people to question the approach of an entrenched management regime. Hedge funds do it as activist shareholders. Lawyers do it with malpractice suits against physicians. As other posters have said, just because someone is in a position to make decisions, it doesn’t mean that their decisions shouldn't be questioned. Especially when we have access to a lot of the same information they do. It is a question of philosophy and judgment, not of information. On a somewhat unrelated note, has anyone seen stats for league-wide OPS for batters with a runner on base with 30+ steals the previous season? I haven't seen the numbers to refute/support whether speed on base disrupts a pitcher, and I am stubbornly holding on to the fact that it does until I see otherwise. (sorry to derail the thread)

I don't get Hendry's/Lou's love for Theriot either. But to say he doesnt care about offense at SS is false. Anyone remember that trade for Nomar?

If so, here goes.... Pardon my ignorance, but why do so many people, Tupac included apparently, feel that IMB needs to be freed? To what extend is he unfree right now?

As we debate whether Dawson should be in the hall of fame, the perfect batting order, or whether Roberts is worth a fifth string starter; only one thing matters. OBP. Seriously though, only one thing matters is the people in our lives. I hope everything is going well. so, not really even a starter, eh? :-k Kidding, but I agree with your sentiment. Bruce, I dealt with a similar situation recently. Best wishes to you and your family.

Yikes, I can only imagine the slew of responses that is likely to follow. I joined the board a little over a year ago and am pretty sure I had a similar thought process back then. But I came to understand a few things better here. Might want to check out some of the baseball discussions that lay out the cold facts about strikeouts/stolen bases/Theriot's status as "team MVP".

Hmm, maybe a signal that the Cubs don't trust Marmol's arm to hold up in the long run and are trying to sell high? Or is that giving them too much credit?

Interesting ideas. I have no interest in defending Clemens, but I do want to offer some facts that seem contrary to the story above. The source says he first injected Clemens in late 1998. However, his first season in Toronto, 1997, he pitched 264 innings with an ERA+ of 221 and a WHIP of 1.03. Seems to me he was in no way washed up at that point. His worst season statistically was first one with the Yanks, while pitching in the same division as before. Having said that, and in no way being a race-baiter, I think you do make some interesting points about his treatment relative to Bonds. However, it is far more likely a result of him having a much more media friendly persona and pitching in big markets. Also, I think it is reflective of the fact that the public generally doesn't associate steroids with pitchers. Huge byceps and home runs are better fodder for the media steroid frenzy.

So you say our biggest needs are: Leadoff hitter 2nd Hitter Power lefty? Jim Hendry, is that you? And about your power lefty - Explain to me this. How would a "power lefty" help the fact that one of our biggest offensive faults last year was the inability to hit left handed pitchers - something Left handed batters are notoriously not great at doing. I don't know why everyone keeps saying this. Sure the Cubs sucked vs. LH starters, but they don't see enough of them to be overly concerned with that. FYI, Cubs OPS vs RHPs .754.....Cubs OPS vs. LHPs .755. 8th vs. RHPs, 11th vs. LHPs. The Cubs had about 3000 fewer ABs vs. LHPs. The Cubs need to get better at hitting baseballs, no matter what hand they are thrown by. Fair enough, and I can agree with that last statement. And as far as that goes I think you can just as easily say we need to get better at hitting the ball regardless of what side of the plate it's from. I still dont think it's smart to waste our time searching for a "lefty power hitter." We need someone who can get on base and hit for power. Period. I dont care if he hits left or right. word

Ugh, good lord that is irritating. It is astounding to me that after so many comments from him last year about the team's inability to hit left handers, he is so focused on getting a lefty for right field. WTF?? I don't mean to take this thread on a tangent, but I have to mention this here. A few months ago, someone on this board posted a link to Steven Levitt's blog - the post where he endorsed one of his grad students for a position with any MLB team (after they worked on the "does lineup protection exist" study). I went to grad school with that particular student, and I asked him if he considered a position with the Cubs. His response was that the Cubs front office was one of the few MLB front offices with no interest in hiring someone with his background. Very telling, and extraordinarily infuriating. I had this conversation with him over the summer, but didn't bother to post about it until I read that mind-numbing quote by Hendry. WTF?!?!

Stone's comments from today: http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-071011cubsstone,1,7551833.story?coll=cs-cubs-headlines Phew.

I'm hoping to meet you folks after the game to celebrate a win. Will there be a particular section where people will be at Sluggers? Also, there is a waitress there who I'm pretty sure hates my guts (for not calling back). But I'll try to avoid bringing unnecessary drama to the NSBB party.

I was only watching game 7 on TV, but I'never seen Wrigley explode more than it did when he hit that homer. Given the circumstances and the way the game started out, I can't remember Wrigley ever being that loud any other time. i saw beer fly on that play i didnt think that was possible Haha, thats right. From the bleachers. The whole stadium collectively lost its mind

I was only watching game 7 on TV, but I'never seen Wrigley explode more than it did when he hit that homer. Given the circumstances and the way the game started out, I can't remember Wrigley ever being that loud any other time.

nice :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

nobody has won game 3 and 4, just to lose in Game 5? Never? Yeah, that surprises me as well. Does that mean there is such a thing as momentum?? Or is this a sample size issue? Has NSBB developed its own set of cliches? While I sometimes take issue with the stat-o-centric, all-unquantifiable-events-are-luck mindset of this board (even as a math major), I will say that since joining this group I have become a much more knowledgeable baseball fan. I won't be on the boards Saturday, because I'll be at the game. But it's been great learning from all of the other posters on this board this year. Whatever happens, I really enjoyed it, and I look forward to more baseball conversations in the future. *end of drunk tangent*

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: +1

How many times we made up 4 runs after the 6th? CUBS are 0-26 when they trail by 4 runs or more at the end of 6 innings. Go CUBS !! in other words, go to bed While that is technically true, they have come back from a 4 or more run deficit twice to take the lead after 6 innings. Against the Phils and Braves I believe. Thats when the cobs bullpen was terrible and coughed up the lead. Not saying there is much of a chance of that against the DBacks pen though.