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hitamprun

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Everything posted by hitamprun

  1. hitamprun
    The scouts are picked by the GM and they work for the GM, the manager has no say in this area.
  2. hitamprun
    3) He's getting hurt because of a decrease in strikeouts, a big jump in BAA, and a HUGE increase in SLG% against (or as Fox, who is brand new to the stat, calls it, "SLUG"). It's not really the walks that are the difference, surprisingly. His GB% isn't too bad and his LD% is pretty low. He is getting hurt because teams are making him throw strikes, it's that simple. I don't care who you are, if you are starting the majority of hitters 1-0, 2-0 and 3-1, you are going to get lit up. At this stage of his career, you would hope his command would be getting better, but it appears to have gone backwards since the end of 05. I don't know what the problem is, but I would think long and hard before commiting 5 years and 15+ mil per year to a guy trending downhill for over a year.
  3. hitamprun
    Even if a guy has only pitched in the minors or the pen, there is still a scouting report about him out there somewhere. It's true, the Cubs have struggled in these situations (even going back to 04), and some of that is because they have not been loaded with patient hitters. The advance scouting has nothing to do with Baker or any manager, but everything to do with Jim Hendry and his staff.
  4. hitamprun
    His trends for the last 1.5 to 2 years is a little disturbing. His overall effectiveness has decreased steadily over that time, and his penchant to not deliver in April and May (when the team is still in the race) is very bothersome. IMO, the league has figured out that you need to be patient with him, and make him throw strikes. Z has got to lead the world in starting out guys with 2-0 and 3-1 counts, and no matter how good your stuff is, you can't be effective at this level doing that. He is walking more guys because teams are being more patient, and giving up more homers because guys are sitting on his fastball on 2-0 and 3-1 counts. Look at his stats after 1/4 of the season, compared to the top 50 starters: 47th in ERA Given up the most homers of all 50 Given up the third most walks Ranked 48th in WHIP Very ugly folks.
  5. hitamprun
    Your timing is right, Hendry should have been launched 1-2 years ago. It amazes me how this guy has avoided accountability for the parent clubs win/loss record and steady decline over the years. Furthermore, he ran the farm system for several years before he became GM, and it has also produced very little from a position player standpoint, and is terrible at developing talent and teaching fundemental baseball. There have been two constants in this organization now for 6 years - Hendry & Rothschild, and they have both avoided responsibility for failure. People can keep blaming Dusty and now some Piniella, but the way Hendry puts the parts together, no one would win with his players. My hope is the new owners will move on this rather quickly, and bring someone in that can improve the entire baseball organization.
  6. hitamprun
    Folks, when you rely on a guy with a career WHIP over 1.5 to be your closer, you are asking for trouble. Sure, Dempster got off to a decent start this year, but you knew his long term trend would eventually surface, and it did. He has always had a habit of working behind in the count and walking guys, and on top of that, he gives up more than 1 hit per innings pitched. These aren't exactly the traits you look for in a closer. Dempster is like many other closers that are 1 year wonders. The advance scouts get a read on these guys, and figure out a way to make life miserable for them. With Dempster its easy - all you do is make him throw strikes, and chances are, he will get himself in trouble by walking guys and then give up a hit or two because he turns to toast. Yesterday was obvious, first Dempster was looking down at the mound, like that was the reason he couldn't throw strikes, then he complained to the ump on a pitch 6 inches inside. If that ain't a sign a guy is blowing up, I don't know what is.
  7. hitamprun
    Hendry is a good baseball man, but IMO, he does not posses the intellect to be a good GM. GM's need to constantly focus on putting the right parts together to build a balanced team over the short and long haul. Hendry has proven to be good at acquiring talent, but has missed the boat on getting the right pieces that make a good team. In 03, he got it right. He aquired a very important catalyst in Kenny Loften, and they also had a very good 2 hole hitter in Gruds. Even though the 3-4-5 positions in the order were not as good as this year, Lofton and Gruds were constantly jump starting the offense and made the team less of a hot/cold type of team. Sure, the 03 team does not win without Wood and Prior, but I could also say they never win the division without Lofton and Gruds setting the table. In 04 and 05, Hendry basically built softball teams that had zero offensive versatility. This year is a bit better, but this team is also prone to the stretches where they struggle to score runs. Any GM can sign FA's, all you need is money, and some of Hendry's trades have been very good, but it is all about wins and losses, and his ROI for the payroll, has been very poor.
  8. hitamprun
    The 3rd spot is usually reserved for the best hitter on the team who also has some pop. Lee's homers have been few and far between, but that won't last. The guy has too much power to not hit homers for extended periods, and I'll guarantee will end up with 30-35 dings before it is said and done. At the end of the day, I think both Ramirez and Lee will end up with very similar numbers. Both will hit above .300 and will have homers in the 30's. You could interchange either one of them without changing much, but I think Lee is best at 3rd because he also has better wheels then Ramirez.
  9. hitamprun
    I'm not sure if you really mean this, but he should be throwing during rehab. Andrews said that he thinks Prior can actually pitch in 08...that would mean he'd be throwing far before then... And that would mean we'd have next year to evaluate whether or not he's worth keeping after 08. Andrews said he could pitch in 08, but may not pick up a ball until 1/08. Considering his long history of coming up lame in ST, I don't see how he could be ready to pitch in a major league game before June. Of course, that's assuming no setbacks, which may be a giant leap of faith.
  10. hitamprun
    Does Mark Prior get a vote in all of this? I think it's more than a little naive to think that Prior would readily sign any extension with the Cubs as soon as one's put under his nose, let alone a cheap one. Your right, he won't sign an incentive laden deal. He will either want the Cubs to cut him loose (IMO, he would prefer this) or take his 3mil he has coming from arbitration. He had his eye on getting his service time in, which is why he mysteriously had issues after the AAA demotion. Before that, he said everything was fine, no pain. To me, that is a tad hard to believe considering what he had done, and I think tells you what his mind frame is regarding staying in Chicago or going elswhere. You have to rememeber, Prior could have had this same procedure done last summer if he wanted to, and he would be 75% through the rehab process. If the Cubs cut him loose after 07, someone will scoop him up, and his eye will be on the west coast.
  11. hitamprun
    I would love for someone to get an orthpaedica surgeon on who deals with shoulder problems to discuss this. I am not a doc, but I deal with many being in sports medicine for 15 years, and I think a doc would say that what they found with Prior would indeed be found in a high percentage of pitchers if they were scoped. I am not saying this to say he is soft, because just because one guy can ptich with it, doesn't mean another guy can. You are dealing with a myriad of factors, some of which you can't measure.
  12. hitamprun
    You have got to be kidding me, right? Prior has not been hesitant to take it slow when he has felt pain, and his DL track record shows that. If he was hurt, he did the right thing by not pitching. Now, you are going to tell me he decided to ignore the pain this spring, and then all of sudden discovers it when he gets demoted to AAA? He had plenty of time to regain his arm strength during the offseason, and yet his velocity was way down, which is more proof that the issues were there the entire spring. If you believe this damage magically appeared in late March, after Prior swore he was feeling fine, I have some swamp land I would like to sell you. lastly, Prior is not the type of guy that was going to let the Cubs dictate whether he revealed he had issues, he clearly makes his own choices and always has. He is no dummy, he wanted to get on the opening day roster to get his service time in, and if it was me I may have tried the same thing, but don't tell me he was some victum.
  13. hitamprun
    There is no doubt Cubs management is frustrated with Prior, and I think they have a right to be. People think the Cubs are the ones that are making the medical decisions for Prior, and that is not the case. A player can go to any specialist or seek any opinion at any time, and this is exactly what Prior did the last few years. This is not the NFL of 30 years ago when the players had no say. In fact it's just the opposite, the players have complete freedom in who they choose to listen to. Why did Prior insist he was 100% healthy during ST? Then, upon his demotion to AAA, all of a sudden have issues again? You can't tell me he wasn't feeling discomfort until the end of March. I think he was looking to make the major league roster to get service time credit for another year.
  14. hitamprun
    Considering his history, and the fact he probably won't pick up a ball until early 08, that would be quite a trick.
  15. hitamprun
    There was some fraying of the labrum too. They're looking at him to begin throwing in January. So basically when I was ripped in a previous thread when I said that he had what Kerry Wood had in 2005, my critics were wrong. I'll repeat what I said then. Since he has better mechanics than Wood, he should be more than serviceable again. Matt Morris had the same thing. The question is whether the Cubs control him through 2008 or 2009. Heck, they might non-tender him this winter and his Cub career is over. I don't think it's a shock that he had "some fraying" of the labrum. It's all dependent on how severe. With the stress involved with throwing, I think you would find a good number of pitchers have some level of fraying in their labrum. Knowing his history, if he starts throwing in January, he won't be ready to go till probably mid-season 08 - ASSUMING no set backs.
  16. hitamprun
    How could something that severe have eluded all of the various non-surgical examinations and imaging he's already had? It's not like up until now he's only been seen by guys that stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Great point. If there was significant tissue damage, its highly unlikely it would have evaded all of the advanced diagnostic procedures that were completed. I am betting they discovered some typical irriatation, and they cleaned it up and that was it.
  17. hitamprun
    If thats the case, they probably found calcification in certain parts of the shoulder. I had the same thing in college (20 years ago), and they gave me a couple cortisone shots and I was good. If this was all they found, I would be a little surprised, because you could probably find hot spots in 50% of pitchers if you scoped them tomorrow.
  18. hitamprun
    I disagree. Theriot certainly had a good enough arm at LSU. Don't forget that he played SS through much of his time in the Cubs system. He may have had a good enouph arm at LSU, but that doesn't mean he does at this level. Also, there is probably a reason the Cubs moved him from SS.
  19. hitamprun
    I think this may be Lou's next move to ignite the team, and get the most productive guys in the lineup. With that said, I do think either DeRosa or Theirot will evenutally be exposed at SS. Theriot does not have a SS arm and I don't think DeRosa has the range.
  20. hitamprun
    I played college ball in the early 80's, and used an aluminum bat. Back then, the technology was not near what it is today, and the difference between wood and aluminum was really nill. Today, the technology is similar to what they have done with golf clubs, and the trampoline effect is what really aids the initial velocity off of aluminum bats. I think it would be a good idea to go with a composite bat type, that would reduce that initial velocity and reduce some of those line drives back to the pitcher.
  21. hitamprun
    In the last 10 years or so, it is common place to see teams have great 2nd halves to make a post-season run. The Marlins did it in 03, and the Astros did it in both 04 and 05 when they were 15+ games below .500 during the first half. For whatever reason, these teams were very resiliant, and found a way to turn it around, and really be completely different teams in the 2nd half. Does this mean the Cubs can do the same? No it doesn't, because you don't know if they will have the same collective ability to turn the tables. The Cubs have a few things going for them - 143 games left, a crappy division and they have talent. Now, it is possible that there blend of talent does not make a good team, and we won't know that until much farther into the season.
  22. hitamprun
    It will be interesting to hear what Andrews has to say after Prior's scope today. A lot of people are assuming this will be the final fix for Prior, but I would not jump the gun. It's possible, but unlikely that anything significant will be found, especially after all the previous exams and tests Prior has had. More than likely, they will find normal wear and tear (irritation, scaring, calcification) that 90% of major league pitchers would have in the shoulder joint. Regardless, I think Prior has pitched his last game as a Cub, and possibly as a major league pitcher.
  23. hitamprun
    You have 143 left to go, but the pattern this team has set to date, is dissappointing. Most disturbing, has been the play in the bundle of close games this team has lost so far. With the veteran talent on this team, you would think someone would have stepped up to stop the bleeding in these situations. It could just be a season starting funk, but there is too much talent on this team to not be a little concerned with how they have collectively lost close ballgames.
  24. hitamprun
    If Pie shows he can hit major league pitching over the next week or so, it could be interesting what Hendry does. Piniella said it a few days ago, and I agree, this team was not built for cold weather and the wind blowing in. They would have won this game easily on any other day, and it would be nice to have a little more speed in the attack which I think Pie could provide, as long as he hits decently. This team will do some damage over the summer months, but if they were to make the playoffs, you need a little more offensive versatility.
  25. hitamprun
    I agree, but I think Piniella will catch on a little quicker than Dusty.
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