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We picked up a 5th year senior transfer from Bradley, so we only have one opening for this year(which will probably go unfilled, leaving 2 for '12) With the monster '13 class, I'd be surprised/disappointed if we didn't roll one of the two to 2013. I'm worrying a bit that PU and IU are done with their 2013 classes. Hopefully we haven't slipped in recruitting again. I know it's still early but a verbal would be nice. IU's not done with 2013. Even with being 2 over in 2012 they still have 1 open scholarship in 2013. Once the dust settles and they figure out 2012 more scholarships than that might be open for 2013.

It is curious. On the optimistic side, he does seemingly check a few boxes. He has good size for a guard, is athletic, good defensively, and able to handle the ball some (going off reports, never seen him). All those things are needed. On the negative side, he seems awfully redundant unless he really can handle the ball well enough to be a back-up point. In 2012-13, IU has these wings lined up: Creek, Oladipo, Sheehey, Etherington, Abell, Patterson, Hollowell. Plus, they're still recruiting Gary Harris hard and no doubt would take him if he'll come. That's potentially eight guys for two spots. Crean's hyperactivity is going a bit crazy -- the team needs BIG MEN. I think this means at least one of the following: (1) multiple transfers this year, and/or (2) Crean really believes Abell is the back-up ballhandler. You also forgot Watford as another wing. I do think Crean likes to run an offense without too many traditional big men though. I think Zeller and Perea will both get a lot of playing time but I can definitely see Crean shifting Watford or Hollowell to the 4 for large stretches as well. I would like 1 more good big man to really feel good about the position but I don't think IU will be that short in the 2012 season. And any big you would pick up this late in the 2011 class probably doesn't help you much. What puzzles me is who would transfer to make room. The wings don't have anybody that really makes sense. Sheehey after one year? Would Creek really sit out another entire year?

that's a very rudimentary formula, and as i said before, lack of speed does not have anything to do with luck. if you were to gather up every catcher in baseball and evaluate their BABIPs versus their LD%, i'd be shocked if their differential were not significantly below .12. i'll choose brian mccann at random - and he's a relatively thin and young guy, so i'm being generous to your side: 2007: .094 2008: .102 2009: .089 2010: .095 2011: .107 Which is exactly what I'm saying-I'm worried that while it appears Soto has been very unlucky by the raw numbers that he has only been mildly to moderately unlucky once you consider the other factors.

IFFBs guys, IFFBs. He has a 21.7% IFFB rate this year. That's not going to continue but it's certainly something I am not going to chalk up to luck. He hasn't been unlucky, he simply hasn't made consistent solid contact. IFFB is somewhat of a skill (or lackthereof) but that's been largely responsible for his low BABIPs since 08. I would agree that it has been somewhat of a factor this year, but I disagree that was a factor in 2009 or 2010. Soto's IFFB numbers were not all that high either year.

The concern I have with Soto is that he appears to be one of those hitters that naturally hits into bad luck. It could be because he doesn't really have the ability to hit to all fields very well which makes him easy to defend against. He's also slow which hurts. His BABIP is low compared to his LD percentage but it's not that extreme. He's also hit 5 pop ups so far which is really bad this early. Soto has looked better when applying the eye test but he's really going to have to start hitting for some more power to really be productive and most of his bad luck has been on balls that would have been singles otherwise. a lot of the line drives straight to outfielders would be doubles. anyway, your idea that he "naturally hits into bad luck" doesn't make a lot of sense, since his babip was .332 his rookie year and .324 last year, and his lack of speed is not bad luck. A normal player has a BABIP that is roughly around .12 above their LD percentage. Soto's by year: 08: .122 09: .065 10: .080 11: .036 So 2+ years now where his BABIP is below where it should be after 1 year where it was right in line with what it should be. I think defensive positioning/lack of speed cause less balls for Soto to be hits than they should be by the numbers.

IU gets a commitment from Remy Abell for this year. Supposed to be a pretty good defending guard who can do some things offensively. He isn't a great recruit though (originally committed to Bradley) and this one is a head scratcher. It definitely makes you wonder if there are transfers and other things happening soon. I do think it's interesting that if Abell comes in and scores a point he'll become the first player from Kentucky to score a point for IU in 68 years.

It's just going to move the 5 spot back a day. They can't really skip it. The good news is that the 5 spot only has to pitch once in the next 2 weeks.

Honestly . . . I'm about to leave work and am going to the Arcade Fire/National concert tonight, so you might as well go ahead and make the pick. Sorry. No problem. Colts pick Jarvis Jenkins DT out of Clemson.

Thoughts Exile?

The concern I have with Soto is that he appears to be one of those hitters that naturally hits into bad luck. It could be because he doesn't really have the ability to hit to all fields very well which makes him easy to defend against. He's also slow which hurts. His BABIP is low compared to his LD percentage but it's not that extreme. He's also hit 5 pop ups so far which is really bad this early. Soto has looked better when applying the eye test but he's really going to have to start hitting for some more power to really be productive and most of his bad luck has been on balls that would have been singles otherwise.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-04-26/sports/ct-spt-0427-cubs-rockies-chicago--20110426_1_cubs-manager-mike-quade-andrew-cashner-cubs-fans Starting to get the feeling he's not gonna be extended. Absolutely no excuse for batting Byrd in the 3 hole. At this point it should be anybody BUT him. Here's a thought....how ARam or Soto? Just a thought.... Overall I'm still on the Quade bandwagon but continuing to throw Russell, Byrd at 3 and Soto 7 ......it's getting on my nerves. It's hard to arrange the middle of the order hitters when they've all been terrible so far: Soriano: .235/.258/.518 Byrd: .281/.303/.365 Soto: .227/.318/.320 Pena: .169/.306/.186 Colvin: .128/.196/.319 Not easy to arrange those hitters. Soto and Soriano have probably hit into the most bad luck (although both of them have at least one poor peripheral number) but none of them have produced so far.

Why is it that everyone here can predict how yesterday's start was going to go by noon, yet the Cubs seem confident right up to the 4th inning and yet another homer given up by Russell, before finally pulling the plug? Seriously, who didn't see another bad start coming? I understand that no team expects to lose 40% of their rotation on the same day but continuing to throw Russell out there is inexcusable. So [expletive] sick of yet another [expletive] team. It wasn't that they were expecting Russell to turn it around but more of the fact that they didn't feel anybody else was ready yet. After the last Russell start, they had articles that pretty much said that they were looking around desperately to try to find anybody who could pitch last night. Once they didn't find anybody, they went back to Russell. I guess you could say that they had Coleman and Jackson as the next in line in case someone in the rotation went down. It was unfortunate that Jackson had some trouble to start the season and like I said, no team can expect to easily handle 2 starters going down on the same day early in the season. Watch Russell become a headcase who can't get anyone out now.... I think also they were expecting one of Silva or Wellemeyer to be throwing in the minor leagues. Instead, Silva refused and Wellemeyer got hurt with Jackson also getting hurt. The Cubs could have sent Cashner and/or Mateo to the minor leagues and kept Silva. They took the chance to rely on the young guys and unfortunately it has burned them badly. If this happened in June they would probably would have starters ready to go but in April it's tough.

He'll get one tomorrow. Has Quade batted Aramis #3 at all this year? No, and he's not going to. He said Aramis at #4 is the only spot in the batting order that is set in stone.

Why is it that everyone here can predict how yesterday's start was going to go by noon, yet the Cubs seem confident right up to the 4th inning and yet another homer given up by Russell, before finally pulling the plug? Seriously, who didn't see another bad start coming? I understand that no team expects to lose 40% of their rotation on the same day but continuing to throw Russell out there is inexcusable. So [expletive] sick of yet another [expletive] team. It wasn't that they were expecting Russell to turn it around but more of the fact that they didn't feel anybody else was ready yet. After the last Russell start, they had articles that pretty much said that they were looking around desperately to try to find anybody who could pitch last night. Once they didn't find anybody, they went back to Russell.

Was that Noah trying to literally take Deng out with an elbow to head? Or being called for 2 flagrant fouls in game 3? I think that was your teamate Mr. Granger you know - Jeff Foster. McRoberts, Boozer, Noah, Foster, and Thomas all threw notable elbows in this series (and I easily could be missing someone-did Hibbert throw one at any point?). It was not confined to one side-not at all. And it definitely looks like Noah got McRoberts with a pretty nasty elbow right before he tried to swing at him (which is also what McRoberts said happened). McRoberts was really dumb to go after him though-at least Noah's was slightly in the flow of play. I hope you're not counting the elbow to Hansbrough's head in game one as Thomas throwing an elbow. There's no way that was intentional. None. If there was another instance, I can't think of it. Boozer, I don't remember seeing but I didn't see most of game 4. I know he was guarding with his off hand when going up for baskets, but I don't remember any flagrant fouls. Noah last night took position under the basket, raised his arm to hold his position, and McRoberts tried to run through him. Noah obviously extended his arm as McRoberts made contact, but I wouldn't say that's dirty as much as it's self defense. Take another look. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1Id0BM9JBM To try and imply the dirty play was on both sides is delusional. Sorry. Thomas's play wasn't dirty, but from 10 years of watching Jeff Foster I don't believe his plays were dirty either. Boozer threw an elbow in game 2? towards Hansbrough. Noah himself said that he wasn't playing "dirtier than anybody else was" and that he "wasn't trying to hurt anybody" He even thought something had been called on him on the McRoberts play which isn't the act of somebody who knows they did nothing wrong. McRoberts was the worst in the series because his was outside of the flow of play but there were plenty of reckless elbows in this series.

Soriano homered last night, right? Yup. Guess even Bruce had tuned out by then. Though it's much more likely WSR somehow screwed that up. That came from the 4th inning last night. The Rockies ended up hitting another home run and Soriano hit his later in the game.

Apparently it doesn't work that often because Hansbrough shot less than 4 free throws a game despite going hard to the rim all series.

Was that Noah trying to literally take Deng out with an elbow to head? Or being called for 2 flagrant fouls in game 3? I think that was your teamate Mr. Granger you know - Jeff Foster. McRoberts, Boozer, Noah, Foster, and Thomas all threw notable elbows in this series (and I easily could be missing someone-did Hibbert throw one at any point?). It was not confined to one side-not at all. And it definitely looks like Noah got McRoberts with a pretty nasty elbow right before he tried to swing at him (which is also what McRoberts said happened). McRoberts was really dumb to go after him though-at least Noah's was slightly in the flow of play.

Good luck to the Bulls in the next series. This was certainly an interesting series. I wish McRoberts and Boozer had decided to play basketball instead of deciding to try to start fights all series. I look forward to many more interesting games in the years ahead although I don't know how or when the Pacers can conceivably be better than the Bulls anytime soon. These teams both play hard and that's really fun to watch.

The Pacers haven't been that amazing at it. They have had 2 really good games from 3 and in the other 3 they shot 6-17, 1-10, and 5-16. The Bulls played really, really well tonight. The Pacers had to have players like Rose and Bogans miss 3's and that didn't happen tonight.

Horrible play by McRoberts. It doesn't matter if Noah started it you just can't respond like that.

I agree (which is part of the reason that the Granger comments at the beginning of the series are ringing true). The Pacers have 2 defenders that can do a decent job on Rose 1 on 1 (although they didn't figure that out and have George and Jones be the primary defenders until game 2 or 3) and have long and active arms inside. That's not a combination that most teams have. The Bulls haven't been able to take advantage of the Pacers big defensive weakness (the size of the point guards) because Bogans is not that type of player. And on the other side of the ball, the Pacers emphasize interior passing which is a better way to break down the Bulls then trying to drive and kick all day long. Plus the Pacers have played more consistently in this series than they have all season. If the Pacers could have played like this for most of the season they would have been at least the 6 seed and not the 8 seed and the Bulls struggling against them wouldn't look nearly as bad. The Bulls will be fine in the next series.

Tracking Garza, his FIP is now 1.25 and an xFIP of 1.93. His K rate is 12.04 (previous 3 seasons 6.24, 8.38, 6.60). His walk rate is 2.64 (previous 3 seasons 2.88, 3.50, 2.77). He hasn't allowed a home run yet in his first 30+ innings despite being a relatively high HR guy in the past (0.93, 1.11, 1.23 last 3 years). His GB/FB percentage is up to 2.33 (previous 3 years 1.04, .93, .80). His LD percentage allowed is falling fast and is now down to 27.7% with a BABIP of .414. I think it's becoming increasingly clear that this is not only a strange start but some sort of adjustment by Garza. That is especially true in the ground ball department-I'd be shocked if he ended up having more fly balls than ground balls at the end of the season. If he can keep that K rate around 9 or 10 while getting a lot of ground balls he could have a great season. BTW, fangraphs already has him as having a 1.6 WAR season through less than a month! He only had a 1.8 WAR all of last year.

Interesting to see that both starting point guards have sprained ankles. Hopefully they'll both be able to go at near their full strength tonight.

When did Garza become a strikeout/groundout type of pitcher? I'm really excited seeing what he's doing but I have no idea who he is out there. I expect his HR rate to somewhat normalize as the weather warms up but the K's and GB/FB rate I have no idea about.