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Such a difficult player to figure out. I still think he has the babip normalize a bit and ends up with good results. If he keeps the power up and the strikeouts down, he should be fine in the long run. Wasn't Vitters' babip low last year as well in Tennessee? Should expect a normalized babip from Vitters? Based on reports of his combination of great eye-hand coordination and free swinging, it seems he often puts poor pitches in play and would be a candidate for a consistently low babip. Vitters had bad BABIPs after both his midseason promotions to both Daytona and Tennessee. But at both of those stops he had less extra base hits and more strikeouts (at Tennessee last year he had substantially more strikeouts). Both of those tend to indicate a hitter who is swinging at pitches at the end of the strike zone or worse-when he connects, it results in outs or singles but frequently he doesn't connect. This year neither of those things are true which is the reason his incredibly low BABIP doesn't make nearly as much sense. And his BABIP so far at Tennessee is worse than either of those other stops.

Has this offense been as bad as it has looked so far? Here are some of their NL ranks: runs scored: 12th HR: 13th BA: 2nd OBP: 5th SLG: 6th OPS: 6th K's: 2nd (fewest) BB: 14th So this team hasn't walked much or hit many home runs, but they have hit for average so well that their OBP, SLG, and OPS are all well above league average. Part of that is how little they strike out which allows them to carry a large average without having too crazy of a BABIP overall (.320). So why are they still 12th in runs? They haven't hit well in the clutch so far-at all: Total (NL rank 6th): .273/.326/.409 Nobody on (NL rank 2nd): .305/.346/.451 Runners on (NL rank 15th): .236/.304/.346 Scoring position (NL rank 15th): .214/.302/.311 Scoring Position 2 out (NL rank 12th): .224/.333/.328 Bases Loaded (NL rank 12th): .211/.227/.368 Is there anything that could be causing this? Lineup construction/streaky players/any other reason or is it just random variation? And if it is random variation, should we be expecting the Cubs offense to be actually good going forward? I think most people would expect their average to go down but their number of home runs to go slightly up. Their walks should stay well below average and I have no idea what their strikeouts will do by the end of the year.

I'd be just fine with Baker in the 3 spot. Destroys left-handers and has hit very well against Kershaw (albeit only 11 AB's). Soriano would be another fine choice. It wouldn't be awful if Byrd or Soto was there either.

Fangraphs article on Pena's struggles: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/whats-wrong-with-carlos-pena/ Has Wrigley really been a home run-haven for left-handed batters though? I always kind of figured it was the opposite-it certainly seems a lot harder to get balls onto Sheffield than Waveland for example.

Vitters adds a home run. His ISOP is now .229 and his strikeout percentage is 7.2. I have to think that if he's hitting pitcher's strikes his ISOP couldn't be that high and if he's just swinging wildly his strikeout percentage couldn't be that low. His overall numbers are still middling though because he hasn't hit enough singles.

Whenever he gets moved into the middle of the order, he stops hitting homers and starts sucking. At least that's my perception. I wonder if the stats back it up. I'd bet he has a much higher home run rate with no men on base, as opposed to when there are men on base. Of course, no one here believes in "clutch" so if it's true, its probably pure coincidence. Giving that he's spent most of his career hitting first in the lineup that shouldn't be too hard to understand at all. And his career numbers hitting 5th or 6th are fine. I was referring to his home run RATE. Not total home runs. Rate has nothing to do with where you're hitting. So I looked it up. He's hit 204 HR's in 3704 AB's (1 per 18.15 AB's) with no men on base. He's hit 117 HR's in 2288 AB's (1 in 19.6 AB's) with men on base. His career numbers .281/.520/.845 with bases occupied, .269/.490/.815 with bases empty. Maybe not that big of a gap, but clearly there's a gap. Of course, you might argue that he spent the prime of his career batting leadoff. But even if you're cleanup you come up with the bases empty and you hit with men on base batting leadoff, especially in the AL on teams like the Yankees. I would argue that Soriano is unclutch. On the other hand, you could argue that Soriano tends to hit his home runs in close games if they be solo shots or homers with runners on base. For example, Soriano has hit 33 home runs in the last year+. How many do you think were in non-close games (which I'm defining as when Soriano steps to the plate, the Cubs are either up by more than 3 runs or down by more than 3 runs. That's when you see pitchers start to pitch a little less carefully or the relievers not be quite as good who are sent into the game)? Answer is in spoiler tags:

Whenever he gets moved into the middle of the order, he stops hitting homers and starts sucking. At least that's my perception. I wonder if the stats back it up. I'd bet he has a much higher home run rate with no men on base, as opposed to when there are men on base. Of course, no one here believes in "clutch" so if it's true, its probably pure coincidence. The last 3 years: 2008 Nobody on: 284 AB's, 18 HR, .885 OPS Runners on: 169 AB's, 11 HR, .860 OPS 2009 Nobody on: 311 AB's, 10 HR, .685 OPS Runners on: 166 AB's, 10 HR, .802 OPS 2010 Nobody on: 269 AB's, 10 HR, .720 OPS Runners on: 227 AB's, 14 HR, .934 OPS And so far this year (excluding tonight): 2011 Nobody on: 38 AB's, 5 HR, 1.087 OPS Runners on: 47 AB's, 2 HR, .524 OPS So perception is not reality in this case. As for the middle of the order, he only had 76 AB's total for the 3-5 spot from 2008-2010 so very little to go off of.

Yes, compensatory picks start in round 3. Carolina received the only 3rd rounder this year for losing Peppers.

Soriano's line now on the season: .250/.274/.590 That is a crazy good ISOP. And that's with a BABIP of .220 so far.

His .260 OBP is a big reason why. So, so nice to see Soto driving one deep. It would be big if he can really get going.

Wow, I actually got a Colts 3rd round pick right. I was just looking over the scouting report for Nevis and it just screamed Colt. I was still shocked that they actually picked him though-but I guess they already got their non-division I-A player in the second round.

The Bears were going to take Paea in the first if Carimi was gone, so at the very least they loved him. Paea was the guy I really wanted for the Colts in the second round (although I was fine with the guy they took). From what I have read about him, he should be good for the Bears as well.

It was in the 3rd off Enright. The run in the 7th was a Reed Johnson sacrifice fly also off Enright.

He's not. He made 3 million last year. He makes 6.5 million next year. If the Cubs want both Pujols and Ramirez, they'll probably have to trade Byrd and go with both Jackson and Colvin in the OF. That depends on how they would backload the contract for Pujols though.

Who's going to play RF in that scenario?

Rothschild was under appreciated by the masses. With that said, they're obviously not as horrid as they've shown so far. Seemed like they also walked a lot of guys when Rothschild was around. CUBS are on a pace to walk 444 batters this year, compared to........... 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BB 419 395 500 638 597 476 I think you might have pulled the wrong walks number Fred. Those look like the walks the Cubs took not the walks allowed.

i'm wondering why he fell though The Giants and Chiefs were both supposed to take offensive linemen and neither did. That sent all the offensive linemen down a few picks from where they were supposed to go. In addition, Carimi was always going to be a guy that was going to interest less teams since he's seen as only a RT.

Castonzo was the player I wanted for the Colts all along but I didn't think he'd make it there. Of course, I don't have a very good track record at these things so it concerns me that the Colts and me think alike for once :D, but I'm still really happy with this pick!

I doubt they think he's much of anything. 21st round college player who didn't play well in Boise, didn't show all that much power in his first Peoria stint, and didn't do anything when he was promoted to Daytona. Now he's just a few days from being 25 years old. Sure, they could promote him again and see how he does but I doubt there's any rush.

And one more Fleita quote that's quite hilarious:

From Bruce's blog today quoting Fleita on Whitenack:

Is he? Or is he a tall wing type (a la Watford, but better)? I haven't seen him play, but if he's a perimiter type power forward, I still think IU needs more big guys. Edit: Just to be clear, this is in no way meant to be negative to Lyles, who is evidently an oustanding player that any team would love to have. He's got some good post moves in this video (with a few drives and a couple outside shots sprinkled in-the sound doesn't add anything to the video). I have no idea if he'll be able to do that against college players but he could still grow a little bit as well. http://www.insidethehall.com/2011/01/08/video-2014-indianapolis-tech-forward-trey-lyles/

I have quite an issue with Crean cutting players. So far though that hasn't happened. The player who everybody wanted gone each year has never left. If Capiobianco is asked to leave I'll have quite a bit of trouble with it. If Sheehey is planning to transfer to get more playing time in his junior/senior year (he'd get plenty of it this year) I'd have no problem with it.

It is curious. On the optimistic side, he does seemingly check a few boxes. He has good size for a guard, is athletic, good defensively, and able to handle the ball some (going off reports, never seen him). All those things are needed. On the negative side, he seems awfully redundant unless he really can handle the ball well enough to be a back-up point. In 2012-13, IU has these wings lined up: Creek, Oladipo, Sheehey, Etherington, Abell, Patterson, Hollowell. Plus, they're still recruiting Gary Harris hard and no doubt would take him if he'll come. That's potentially eight guys for two spots. Crean's hyperactivity is going a bit crazy -- the team needs BIG MEN. I think this means at least one of the following: (1) multiple transfers this year, and/or (2) Crean really believes Abell is the back-up ballhandler. You also forgot Watford as another wing. I do think Crean likes to run an offense without too many traditional big men though. I think Zeller and Perea will both get a lot of playing time but I can definitely see Crean shifting Watford or Hollowell to the 4 for large stretches as well. I would like 1 more good big man to really feel good about the position but I don't think IU will be that short in the 2012 season. And any big you would pick up this late in the 2011 class probably doesn't help you much. What puzzles me is who would transfer to make room. The wings don't have anybody that really makes sense. Sheehey after one year? Would Creek really sit out another entire year? That's because I refuse to believe Watford is a wing. He's a small, weak, perimeter four. I've seen nothing to change my mind on that. The big man depth for 2012-13 looks relatively decent: Zeller/Watford(ish)/Perea/Elston(?)/Jurkin(?). However, after that it gets dicey. You've got Zeller and Perea that I'm confident in, and Jurkin who seems like a project that may be in prep school. After that? Nothing. The team desperately needs intererior depth for the future. The 2011 class has one big man, the 2012 has two, 2013 zero, and 2014 one (? or is it a tall wing?). That's added to a team with really no competent big men. Even if Jurkin is good, that's still only three big men on the roster. Insufficient. I'm not saying they can get anyone good this late . . . but they did just take a 3-star guard this late . . . Agreed. The most likely transfers seem to be big men and the other roster deus ex machina seems to be Jurkin to prep school. So, still a glut of wings. Abell better be a ball handler. I'm much more confident in finding a guard late that can contribute than a big man. Most big men with any talent whatsoever have already been picked up at this point. I think the future big men could come in that 2013 class. That's when three players who can play in the 4/5 positions are graduating so I'm guessing that Crean will have to add at least 1 and maybe 2 big men to that class.

It is curious. On the optimistic side, he does seemingly check a few boxes. He has good size for a guard, is athletic, good defensively, and able to handle the ball some (going off reports, never seen him). All those things are needed. On the negative side, he seems awfully redundant unless he really can handle the ball well enough to be a back-up point. In 2012-13, IU has these wings lined up: Creek, Oladipo, Sheehey, Etherington, Abell, Patterson, Hollowell. Plus, they're still recruiting Gary Harris hard and no doubt would take him if he'll come. That's potentially eight guys for two spots. Crean's hyperactivity is going a bit crazy -- the team needs BIG MEN. I think this means at least one of the following: (1) multiple transfers this year, and/or (2) Crean really believes Abell is the back-up ballhandler. You also forgot Watford as another wing. I do think Crean likes to run an offense without too many traditional big men though. I think Zeller and Perea will both get a lot of playing time but I can definitely see Crean shifting Watford or Hollowell to the 4 for large stretches as well. I would like 1 more good big man to really feel good about the position but I don't think IU will be that short in the 2012 season. And any big you would pick up this late in the 2011 class probably doesn't help you much. What puzzles me is who would transfer to make room. The wings don't have anybody that really makes sense. Sheehey after one year? Would Creek really sit out another entire year? I've heard that Sheehey is considering leaving, yes. Well I like him and I think he could contribute at a high major program, but I don't see how he fits after this year so that would be ok with me. I'm just surprised that he already would be considering it when he seemed to enjoy his freshman year.