CubColtPacer

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP? Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20+ million dollars per year? I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat. Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20 million dollars per year? Not on any hit, but you have to agree that Pierre's speed makes it much more likely to have him score from 1st base on a double. It also makes him much more likely to steal second, and tag up on fly balls. While this does not offset all OBP differences, it does start to make up for a lower OBP, and speed is much more valuable statistically when factored into a team with a low OBP then a high one because that is the one of the main ways for a team with a low OBP to create runs.

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP? I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat.

Here is the strange thing about Juan Pierre. If the Cubs lineup were stocked with good OBP guys, then Pierre would not be a good fit, because his speed would not be as necessary. However, if the Cubs are not a good OBP team, Pierre is a great leadoff hitter for them. Why? Because Pierre scores runs when he gets on base. When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in. When you don't have high OBP guys behind him, it is nice to only need 1 hit to get your leadoff man in. So, with this strange logic, if the rest of the team remains the same or close to it, the best leadoff hitter for this type of team is Juan Pierre.

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard). How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though). Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58. You're right about that point. I was intentionally trying to do that to show how slugging can be just as important as OBP, which at the time I thought that the person was dismissing slugging as only a nice bonus if the person had a high OBP already. Freddy Sanchez vs. Ryan Howard is actually a very good battle. Like the numbers say, I would probably take Sanchez first (production of this year mind you, if I was projecting forward I would take Howard), because he has a high OBP and still hits lots of doubles. I think 8 Ryan Howard's would beat 8 Scott Hatteberg's. 8 Freddy Sanchez's and 8 Nick Johnson's would be a very close match-I would guess because of speed factors that Sanchez would beat Howard, and Howard would beat Johnson. Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

Like I said you are basing your analysis on a half a years production while I am looking at career numbers. In the case of these other guys I will just say that because other GM's may have signed players to a bad deal, doesn't mean Hendry had too, especially when he was basically bidding against himself. (KC was the only other team showing interest) What could we do in RF then? If these players were not the answer, then who? Who is that player that could have produced for us at a better clip that was anywhere available? Many people said Brian Giles, but so far, his contract is looking like a much bigger liability. His production is falling, and he is making twice as much as Jones for the same 3 years with a 3 million dollar buyout in 2009. So if not Jones, then what was Hendry supposed to do?

I flat disagree with this. We need guys with good OBP. We have Lee, Ramirez - who have a lot of power. For the foreseeable future, we have guys like JJ and Barrett, who can contribute 20-25 HR, and 15-20 HR respectively. Add that to the 30-40 HRs a healthy Lee & ARam will have - and we have good power in the middle. Could we use another power guy? Sure, who couldn't use more power. But, what we need is OBP and lots of it. We don't need a 25 HR guy who gets on base at a .310 clip. Now, as others have said elsewhere, Hendry has no idea of the importance of OBP. As between a toolsy guy w/ no OBP and no power and a toolsy guy with no OBP and a high SLG, I'll take the latter. Thus, I hope we get a guy like Soriano, b/c Hendry just doesn't think a guy like Dunn is that valuable. True. I think with those 4, we have what we need for power, but not by all that much. If we trade any of them, we would be in trouble again in that department. Our power problems were really accentuated when Lee went down. If all 4 of them stay then, I would agree that the first priority is guys with high OBP for the starting positions. Maybe some more power on the bench that could start if one of power guys go down? That might do it-at the beginning of the year though, we had 4 slap hitters on the bench, and so when Lee went down there was simply not enough power in the lineup.

Jones is on the downside of his career and magically he is going to start putting up career best in numbers? I am not saying Jacque is horrible I am just saying he was not a good signing. Career numbers for some of the guys you mentioned and compared to for a half season. Career OPS Jones: .787 Vlad: .971 Alou: .883 Sanders: .831 Encarnacion: .756 So, of those players Jones matches up most comparably with Encarnacion yet is making about 2 million more a year. So, if you think Jones is worth the 3 years 16 million for his career .787 OPS then so be it. I just don't think you can justify the contract on a half season, and realistically I don't think he will put up an .850 OPS for three years. There is nothing in his past that would indicate that. If he does then you will have a legitimate point. I doubt Jones will put up an .850 OPS for 3 years. Let me put up some of the other right fielders however. Shawn Green-hasn't had above an .830 OPS in 3 years-making 10.2 million this year. Brian Giles-his slugging is dropping off, has had an OPS of .849, .906, and this year all the way down to .781. He is making 7.67 million this year. Kevin Mench- .763 OPS after a .797 last year. Making 2.8 million. Geoff Jenkins-.759 OPS this year, .798 and .888 before that. making 7.8 million this year. Juan Encarnacion-.755 OPS this year, previous two years .701 and .796. making 3.5 million this year. Randy Winn-had an exceptional OBP last year with only 235 at bats, now this year with full amount of at bats back to previous years with Seattle and a .755 OPS. He makes 5 million this year. Jay Payton-.694 OPS this year, two years previous were .742 and .755. He makes 4 million dollars. Magglio Ordonez-His last 3 years OPS have been .836, .795, and now this year back somewhat with a .857 OPS. He makes 16.2 million this year. Trot Nixon-his last 2 years of full-time play have an OPS of .803, and this year a very good .854. He makes 7.5 million. Jacque Jones-previous 2 years has a .742 and a .757 OPS. This year, it is .846. He makes 4.03 million this year. There are only 22 qualified right fielders so far this year. Out of those qualified, I threw out 6 of them since they hadn't hit free agency yet. I also threw out Bernie Williams since he only signed for 1.5 million (he isn't putting up good numbers anyway) Out of the 15 left, you see 10 of those. The only ones left are Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrerro, Ichiro Suzuki, and J.D. Drew. Drew could easily climb to the list above if he has another bad year with his 11+ million dollar contract. So-is Jones's contract really that much different then most of the right fielders who have hit free agency? He is getting paid less then everybody but Mench and Encarnacion, and he is hitting better then both of them. Plus, many of those guys have double the contract of Jones, or in Ordonez's case triple, which makes their production even more skeptical. If Jones even puts up a .785 OPS over the next two and a half years, the contract will be worth it compared to all the othr right fielders.

I would definitely agree with this. Jones will turn out to be an average right fielder who is making below average money. If by this hot streak however you can convince a team like the Twins that he is actually one of the top 10 right fielders in the league and get the prospects to match, then you have to make the deal. I have no problem getting rid of him, but I don't think his contract is an albatross either that we need to get rid of. If we get the right deal, he goes. Otherwise, we are getting good production for the money we are paying him.

You are comparing Apples and Oranges. Jones is overpaid and on the books for two more years after this, he is a corner outfielder so should have more HR's and RBI's. Todd Walker at a fraction of the the price is still a much better deal whether you think he is a malcontent or not. Well, let's see. Jones's numbers are only slightly below Magglio's numbers-so I guess his 16,000,000 must be the worst signing ever. The Tigers must be looking to dump him for whoever since he he is way overpaid-he should only be making 5 million a season like Jacque, right? How about Vladimir Guererro-his numbers are only at best moderately better also (5 extra homeruns, .2 OBP). Does that mean he's not worth his 13.5 million dollars? Should the Angels be looking to get rid of him for whatever they can get? Moises Alou is maybe putting up the same stats as Jones, and he is getting paid 7.5 million-overpaid. Encarnacion is only making 3.5 million, but he's not doing as well as Jones is-overpaid. Reggie Sanders is making 5 million-and he's not doing nearly as well as Jones-dreadfully overpaid. The names could go on-Jose Guillen, Shawn Green, J.D. Drew, Brian Giles, Geoff Jenkins. None of their numbers would match their salary figures. I just provided 10 names that are making comparable or as in the case of 8 of the names much more than Jones. I could provide several more names. Jones is an average to below average salary player for his position, and he's providing above average production for his position. You mentioned home runs-he's 7th for RF's. He's 9th in OPS, so he is better than most of the right fielders around the league right now. Will he go into a tailspin? Maybe-but how long does he have to continue playing like this before his contract will be known as a good one? If he plays like this for all 3 years, Jacque Jones will actually be dreadfully underpaid for the relative amount that people get at his position. First off, I didn't compare Jones to other right fielders, it was a comparison between him and Todd Walker. Second of all, most of the guys that you mentioned have much better career numbers than Jones. While Jones is putting up great numbers in half a season, the odds are that he will revert back to his career norms before the end of his contract in which case, he will be grossly overpaid and still on the Cubs books for another couple of years. I applaud Jacque for his performance at the plate so far this year, he still is horrible defensively though also. Also I would say that some of those guys on your list are overpaid also (Geoff Jenkins) So if Jones stays and keeps this up next year you will call it a great contract and that he is underpaid? How long does he have to prove the numbers before he earns his relatively small contract? Out of all the right fielders who have made it to free agency, Jones has one of smallest contracts out there-and right now, he's outproducing most of them. How long does he have to keep that up?

Jacque in the last 7 days: .167/.167/.250 Of course that's a relatively small sample size, but I'm not sure if you can make an "If he plays like this" argument when he's not exactly tearing it up right now. Did I hear something like was 0 for his last 50-something at home? Well, yes-but I am saying his stats for the entire season-including his awful April. That last 7 days includes the All Star Break, does it not? I think it has to, since he had 3 hits last Sunday. No, he's not 0 for 50 something at home. He actually had an RBI hit last night-had a tough series against the Mets though with only 2 hits. That 0 for 52 stat you heard was his stats after getting into an 0-2 count all season. So, if he plays like his averages for the season, he will be getting us more value for his money than the average right fielder in the majors.

You are comparing Apples and Oranges. Jones is overpaid and on the books for two more years after this, he is a corner outfielder so should have more HR's and RBI's. Todd Walker at a fraction of the the price is still a much better deal whether you think he is a malcontent or not. Well, let's see. Jones's numbers are only slightly below Magglio's numbers-so I guess his 16,000,000 must be the worst signing ever. The Tigers must be looking to dump him for whoever since he he is way overpaid-he should only be making 5 million a season like Jacque, right? How about Vladimir Guererro-his numbers are only at best moderately better also (5 extra homeruns, .2 OBP). Does that mean he's not worth his 13.5 million dollars? Should the Angels be looking to get rid of him for whatever they can get? Moises Alou is maybe putting up the same stats as Jones, and he is getting paid 7.5 million-overpaid. Encarnacion is only making 3.5 million, but he's not doing as well as Jones is-overpaid. Reggie Sanders is making 5 million-and he's not doing nearly as well as Jones-dreadfully overpaid. The names could go on-Jose Guillen, Shawn Green, J.D. Drew, Brian Giles, Geoff Jenkins. None of their numbers would match their salary figures. I just provided 10 names that are making comparable or as in the case of 8 of the names much more than Jones. I could provide several more names. Jones is an average to below average salary player for his position, and he's providing above average production for his position. You mentioned home runs-he's 7th for RF's. He's 9th in OPS, so he is better than most of the right fielders around the league right now. Will he go into a tailspin? Maybe-but how long does he have to continue playing like this before his contract will be known as a good one? If he plays like this for all 3 years, Jacque Jones will actually be dreadfully underpaid for the relative amount that people get at his position.

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season. While my team gets on base at a .3 less clip, it will usually take only 1 or 2 hits to drive runners home, while it takes your hitters normally at least 3 hits in order to get your runners home. Since you have a less than 1 in 2 chance of getting on base with each runner, the most likely result of each inning will be for you to get 1 or 2 hits and no runs. We will be more likely to get 1 hit then 2, but my team will hit many solo home runs and 2 run homers and outscore your team. Now, would I want either of these teams? No-because there should be a balance of high OBP hitters and great power hitters, no matter how you can get them. Mathematically, does slugging matter as much as OBP? Yes-that's why OPS is the true measure of run production, because it combines OBP and slugging equally. If you look at the correlation between runs scored and OBP or slugging, slugging matches up just as well with runs as OBP does. So why is it assumed that OBP is the more important of the two stats, instead of giving each their equal place? Well, I don't agree with your claim that OPS treats OBP and SLG equally b/c they are equal. Neyer has written several times that it's a matter of convenience b/c they are two stats that tell you a great deal about a hitter. He (and others - Tango Tiger maybe? Someone around here) also says that OPS undervalues OBP relative to SLG - OBP is more important. But even setting that aside to examine the rest of your post... I'd like you to look at my first post and tell me where it says I'd rather have 8 Vizquel's rather than 8 Howards. I bolded for you the same section I just bolded for BBB. If we can get a power hitter who gets on base regularly-I'm all for it (I'd take 8 Dunns over 8 Howards, but Howard's .350-ish OBP qualifies as "regular" to me). I never said to go look for the 8 position players with the highest OBP and put them out there. I just said don't say "this guy hits 30 homers a year - sign him up" when that guy also puts up OBP around .310 (Soriano last year - though his OBP has improved greatly this year). Obviously we need power hitters too. But I don't think we need a balance of power and OBP guys. I'd prefer 8 guys with solid to great OBP, 3-4 of which have decent to great power. ARam and Lee both put up great power numbers last year (but also OBP over .350 - well over for Lee). If we had 5-6 other guys with good OBP (say .340 or higher), esp 2 to go at the top of the order w/ real good OBP, and had 1-2 guys with solid SLG (not just HR power) - we'd have a team capable of scoring some runs. If we keep JP for another year, lose Walker and replace him w/ a Neifi-ish .300 OBP, keep Jones and his .320-ish OBP in the heart of the order, and Cedeno never comes around - we'll have 4 pretty bad OBP in our lineup. Not good for scoring runs. The reason I said what I did is because of your last statement-the reason that the Cubs don't score runs is because they don't get on base. You gave no other option in that post, and you seemed to only want to get power as an added bonus to an already high OBP guy. Obviously I would love if all 8 hitters had high OBP's and high power numbers. I was just saying in my post that if you had 6 guys who had high OBPs and low power numbers-if you had to choose between another player with a relatively high OBP with bad power, or a player with great power and a relatively bad OBP, I would take the player with a relatively bad OBP and great power. A team is not likely to get all their players who are above average in both categories. Now, as far as improving this team, we need both right now. We need to sign 1 or 2 starters who have high OBPs to get on, and we need 1 more big power hitter in the middle of the lineup as well. If he has decent OBP, that's a big bonus, but we need that power along with the 1 to 2 OBP first players.

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season. While my team gets on base at a .3 less clip, it will usually take only 1 or 2 hits to drive runners home, while it takes your hitters normally at least 3 hits in order to get your runners home. Since you have a less than 1 in 2 chance of getting on base with each runner, the most likely result of each inning will be for you to get 1 or 2 hits and no runs. We will be more likely to get 1 hit then 2, but my team will hit many solo home runs and 2 run homers and outscore your team. Now, would I want either of these teams? No-because there should be a balance of high OBP hitters and great power hitters, no matter how you can get them. Mathematically, does slugging matter as much as OBP? Yes-that's why OPS is the true measure of run production, because it combines OBP and slugging equally. If you look at the correlation between runs scored and OBP or slugging, slugging matches up just as well with runs as OBP does. So why is it assumed that OBP is the more important of the two stats, instead of giving each their equal place?

Double and a triple. That's enough power for me from Theriot. As much as I'd like Theriot to play, if Neifi had hit that ball, the triple would be called what it actually was-a routine fly ball that the right fielder lost in the sun. Let's give him credit where credit is due-he played a very good game, with a double and a stolen base, and that's certainly good enough for me.

Well, sort of 2 extra base hits. The triple was just the medium fly ball that the right fielder couldn't see-nice to see Theriot going full speed though in case it dropped in order for him to get all the way to third, and it was still a very nice game for him. The whole team was also incredibly patient today with Glavine, which is always nice to see against someone who likes to nibble like he does.

It will be Dustys fault for not playing Barrett and Cedeno. The Valentin brothers are terrible human beings. At this point, I don't think Cedeno being out of the lineup hurts the Cubs. Although I do want to see him play everyday still so he can improve. you think neifi does more in a lineup than cedeno? i wonder if baker is sitting him because of the botched dp yesterday... Against lefties...? Yes, Neifi doe a lot more against lefties. Cedeno barely does more overall, and Neifi is average against lefties, while Cedeno is horrible against them.

No runs, but that was definitely a quality inning otherwise. Hard hit balls, patience, moving runners up-if we can keep doing that, the runs will come.

I wanted that to be true, and so I went back and looked at the reply several times-unfortunately, Nady made contact with the bag, as he was sliding by he reached out and barely touched the bag, you can see his hand reaching out and then changing angles slightly because it hit the bag-but just the very end of his fingers. Still, though, that was out there enough to definitely be questionable, but he did hit the bag.

Did Steve Stone just say that nobody has ever come back from a lead like the Mets have this season? They are 12 games ahead-haven't there been at least 2 or 3 instances where teams have come back from those kinds of deficits in August?

Exactly. That is why I'm fine with Lee, Barrett, Ramirez, and Jones if he can keep his level of production somewhere near where it is currently. Pierre if he can continue his recent trend I can live with (someone posted that his numbers are dramatically after the ASB career wise anyway?). Cedeno has been a black hole on offense. Murton had a minor problem of being too patient, and the coaching staff took a sledgehammer to what was a minor problem, and now he seems to have a major problem with being too agressive. We have our middle of the order hitters that can get our big hits that we don't necessarily need our high OBP's from. Now we just need the players around them to get on base at a high clip (the middle infield, left and center field). Do I think Piurre can make do with a slightly lower OBP because of all the problems he causes on the bases? Yes-now we just need to see if he can continue his hot bat so that his OBP will only be slightly to moderately less instead of at the level it is now.

Well, you're drawing a lot of conclusions based on 3 months of baseball. Especially given the guys chosen (an aging Helton, Lee and Sanchez having career years, Abreu on the wrong side of 30, Dunn & Howard just hitting prime). Lee is a career .850ish OPS guy. Solid, but nothing to write home about. Dunn had a down first half, but his career OBP near .390 and high SLG make him my #3 hitter. Lower than that wastes his ability to get on base (unless you're sitting on 2005 Derrek Lee or another power hitter w/ a .400 OBP). Helton hasn't shown much pop in the first half, but he gets on at a .425 clip overall. Again, the great swings from month to month are a concern, as are his declining #s. I don't think Sanchez keeps this up, though his ability to play almost anywhere makes him a great pick if you knew these #s were coming. Howard's a solid option and only 26, but of the guys listed, a .340 OBP ain't great, even w/ all that power. I'd certainly take him if 1B were open for us, but I'd hope the OBP goes up. Well, yes, my list was based on whose stats I would take if I had to take those stats from the first 3 months and translate it to my team. So if you had to take those similar players in OPS and you could have had their entire first half on your team, which one would you say would be having the best season so far? It's just an exercise to see what type of hitter people actually want. So I don't necessarily think that players like Lee or Sanchez will keep their current pace up, but for this I don't need to.

Ok, let me ask you and everyone this then. If that is true, let me give you 6 hitters here. They are all very similar in OPS (within 11 points of each other). Please rank the hitters that you would like to have in order (just for hitting). This would only be for the rest of the season, so for now the future doesn't matter. These will be ranked by me in alphebetical order. Bobby Abreu Adam Dunn Todd Helton Ryan Howard Carlos Lee Freddy Sanchez This will be fun! I'd rank them: Abreu, Dunn, Howard, C-Lee, Helton, Sanchez. But that's taking into account my beliefs about how these guys will finish the year. Helton circa 2004, if he played all his games at Coors, would probably be the #1 pick but he's a shell of his former self this year. Why Helton so low? .530/.320/.480/.340 - his OBPs by month so far (rounded). If he can keep up a solid .425 - great, but if he's a .320, um, no thanks. CLee has only been close to these stats once before and I'm still not sure he can keep it up. I think Sanchez is in for a fall, but he's only 28 so maybe he's a late bloomer. If Sanchez can really keep it up, I'd take him after Abreu. If you told me they'd put up these numbers on April 1 and asked me to pick, I'd go: Abreu, Helton, Sanchez, Dunn, Lee, Howard. Well, I applaud you for sticking to your guns with your second list, as it follows OBP list exactly. I'll provide my list as well if I had to pick the player who's stats so far this season would be most benificial for my team. 1)Freddy Sanchez-He has the highest BA, the 3rd best OBP, and the 4th best slugging. I would love his combination here, and I think his first half is a perfect #2 hitter. If you have a leadoff hitter who gets on a lot, Sanchez drives him in with his 29 doubles so far, and advances him to 3rd a great deal with his .358 batting average. If the first hitter does not get on, his .396 OBP means he will get on in front of the cleanup guys, and also his great number of doubles mean that one hit behind him will knock him in instead of two. 2) Bobby Abreu-With his power falling off this first half, Abreu is still a wonderful #2 hitter. He has drilled lefties and been pretty good against right handers this season. At this spot, I cannot ignore his OBP along with his good speed that will allow him to score from first on a double from one of my power guys behind him. 3) Carlos Lee-Lee posts a slugging percentage that is almost 100 points ahead of Abreu's. He hits for a higher average and OBP than Ryan Howard while almost matching his slugging percentage. Lee looks to be a prodotypical #4 hitter. 4)Ryan Howard-His batting average and OBP are a bit low, but his slugging makes up for it. He is a great 4 or 5 hitter-he has the capability of driving in runs from anywhere. I'd put him at #4 for all the opportunities he will get to have a runner on first and 2 outs, which is a very likely situation. 5) Adam Dunn-the man without a spot. Dunn has a relatively high OBP coupled with a relatively high slugging. I question though how that translates into games because Dunn does not fit anywhere in the order. In the 2 spot, his home runs are wasted. In the 5 spot where he currently bats, many of Dunn's walks are wasted by the lower third of the order, and some of his walks may be due to teams wanting to go to that part of the order. Dunn does not drive in runs well, nor does he tend to move runners up, which makes him not a great fit for a #3 hitter. Doubles in front of him might as well be singles if he walks or homers, but strikeouts as a #3 hitter could ruin many an inning. Dunn seems best then as a #4 hitter, but it still makes many of his walks not very useful, and his relative lack of speed on the basepaths also makes walking less valuable still (but I'm not saying he shouldn't walk if he can-just that it takes more than most for him to score) Dunn does though possess a balance that many of the other players do not have. 6) Todd Helton- Helton is a singles hitter that is still a good #2 or #3 hitter, but his lack of power or extra base hits and his relative speed on the basepaths make him not quite as good as the other hitters on this list.

I'm not saying that the coaching staff should say..but what about Jones and Barrett? Jones is hitting much better then expected, and Barrett has improved every year since coming to the Cubs. Also, Walker, Murton, and Cedeno have met the expectations of most baseball analysts, and Ramirez met expectations till his tough year this year. That is half the roster this year.

Not necessarily true. If the team hitting .284 is slugging 30 points lower than the team with the .271 avg., they will probably score less runs, so that completely shoots your average argument down, while reinforcing your OPS argument. Bottom line is you want a high OPS, and how you get there is less important than the fact that you get there. Sorry about that..I meant to say that if slugging and other stats were equal either way-sorry about the confusion there. You are right-any way you can get to a high OPS is great-it's just that hits get you there at least twice as fast due to both increasing OBP and slugging. Actually, OBP and SLG aren't equal. If you have 2 guys with a .900 OPS, one with a .350 OBP and one with a .400 OBP, I'd take the latter. It's all about not making outs. Now, if the OBP is the same, yes, you'd want the guy with the higher SLG, but as between the two, OBP is more important. Ok, let me ask you and everyone this then. If that is true, let me give you 6 hitters here. They are all very similar in OPS (within 11 points of each other). Please rank the hitters that you would like to have in order (just for hitting). This would only be for the rest of the season, so for now the future doesn't matter. These will be ranked by me in alphebetical order. Bobby Abreu Adam Dunn Todd Helton Ryan Howard Carlos Lee Freddy Sanchez

Unless that .330 OBP guy has a huge power advantage over the .360 OBP guy, there's no way he's better for your ballclub. You can talk all you want about guys who hit instead of walk, but the fact is you need guys who get on base, no matter how they do it, and you'd preferably take the guys who both hit and walk. Taking a guy who hits a little more but walks a lot less, just does not make any sense whatsoever. There aren't many players out there who primarily walk well, whatever that means. Guys either get on base or they don't. It's simple, you want the guys who get on base. Let me give you a closer example then, we have Morgan Ensberg and Matt Holliday of Colorado. Ensberg is batting .237 with a .390 OBP Holliday is batting .337 with a .387 OBP Ensberg has 19 HR with 44 RBI's Holliday has 16 HR with 57 RBI's Who do you take? (disregarding things like park or position-just simple hitting and creating offense for a team) Are these hitters even that close? Let me give you some other numbers-Holliday has a .587 slugging to Ensberg's .500 slugging. Therefore, Holliday's OPS is 84 points higher. Is this because he has more power? No, obviously not. It is no wonder that many of the middle of the order people who have high batting averages have high slugging numbers, power or not. They are hitting the ball into play, getting their slugging up using singles or doubles. To use another example, this is why Freddy Sanchez has a much higher slugging percentage than Bobby Abreu. Abreu gets on base .50 more of the time, but Sanchez has the same .53 edge in slugging, even though he only has 5 home runs, while Abreu has 8. A person with a low average and high OBP will have to have a significant number of home runs to get even close in slugging to a person with a high average and even a much lower OBP, like Abreu and Sanchez. If you just wanted to get on base 1 base at a time, you'd have to have 4 of those in any inning for one run. These middle of the order type of guys need to put the ball into play, to let baserunners advance (2nd to home, 1st to 3rd) and to hit things like doubles to make it much easier to score, which increases your run production.