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Because Ronny Cedeno, our most ready rookie right now (not counting Murton-he's had a little more service time) certainly is playing as well as Pierre-except that's not true, and the gap is widening every single day. So no, the minors are not full of guys who can provide Pierre's production. Edit: Actually, the way that it's going, Pierre will probably have better numbers than Murton by the end of the season as well. Do you think Murton should be replaced?

I would agree-he is not likely too, and if we can get the right deal, I'd be fine with trading him, if we can actually sell high. I just don't understand the people who think that this is the chance to get out from this horrible contract Hendry signed him to, which is not really true.

Given Giles' is 35 years old, that's a heck of an assumption. Agreed. Giles's power has completely disappeared (.389 SLG this year) and even though he still shows the ability to get on base (.392 OBP) I think Jones is the better option for the next couple years. Playing at PETCO will have that effect on your power numbers. It would be awesome to see his .392 OBP in the Cubs lineup. If, and that's a big if, Giles had signed with the Cubs, you can't say for sure his numbers would be better, but I would think his OBP would be similar and his SLG would be higher, now they could be worse, but his career numbers wouldn't indicate that. I don't know why that is a heck of an assumption to think that Giles would produce near his career numbers especially when he still gets on base at a higher clip than just about everyone else on the Cubs, with the exception of DLee. Seeing that he is starting to decline though, even if his numbers rebounded somewhat, is he worth spending double the money of Jones? Which player is going to be the worse contract-9 million for Giles in 2008 when he is 37, or 5 million for Jones when he is 33? I would argue that Giles will not have the significant production needed to justify that contract. Two more things about Giles's contract. One, he never would have accepted a deal from the Cubs for 9 million a year. He rejected a deal of 11+ from other teams, so it would have taken 12+ million a year, and so now you have to wonder if he's worth two and a half times what Jones is. Also, not only does he have a 3 year deal, but the Padres will have to pay a 3 million dollar buyout to not be on the hook for a 4th year at 9 million. That's a great deal of money for a player who's slugging is dropping rapidly.

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order. Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up. The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths. If Pierre was at his career average (approx. .350 OBP), I could accept it. I'd like it to be higher, but I could accept it. As it stands now, he is currently 75 points behind Kevin Youkilis and has 27 more stolen bases. Pierre has also been caught stealing 10 times, while Youkilis hasn't been caught in five attempts. Brady Clark has an OBP of .379 and only two stolen bases, and I'd prefer him at the top of the order over Pierre. There is no way that Pierre's speed can make up for that big of a difference in OBP. What if he follows his career average and has a .320 average after the break? His OBP should be around .350 then-would you re-sign him?

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order. Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up. The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

There are 8 players who have batted at least 100 at bats in the leadoff spot this year that have a .350 OBP or better. 8. That's your starting point? In fact, Jose Reyes only has a .357 OBP. Does that mean he is barely a decent leadoff hitter? Now that I look at the stats again, Pierre is probably going to get to a .340 OBP. If a .335 OBP from your leadoff hitter is horrible, and a .350-.360 is only decent, then I guess there are only 2 good leadoff men in the game. The fact that a lot of other teams have medicrity out of their leadoff spot doesn't mean the Cubs should settle for it. I'd also be curious to know how many players with over .350 OBPs aren't batting leadoff and why. Obviously, there are middle-of-the-order types that have OBPs well over that. But there are probably some guys batting second for some teams that have a better OBP than their leadoff hitter (i.e. Todd Walker). Some teams probably have players that should be batting leadoff but aren't. Take a look at the Nationals. Jose Vidro has spent most of the season splitting time between the #2 and #3 spots in the order, while Soriano leads off. To his credit, Soriano has a respectable OBP this year, but I'd be inclined to bat Vidro first, with Soriano somewhere in the middle of the order. Put his power to use when people are on base in front of him. The funny thing is, Soriano has the best OBP leading off in the league of people who lead off most of the time-.378

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335. How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3? That number is a lot lower than it should be because things like speed are overvalued. Pierre should not have been batting leadoff simply because he's faster than say Todd Walker. When Juan was toiling in the 270 OBP range and Walker and Murton were both in the 370 range, they should have occupied the top 2 spots in the lineup. You say speed is overvalued. So how much value do you think people give it, and how much value do you give it? It's your statement-I'm just asking you to explain it.

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335. How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3? The position that the manager bats a hitter in is irrelevent to the discussion. See, that's the problem with the Cubs and the problem with your argument. There is no such thing as a leadoff batter. There are only position players. That is what pissed me off so much this off-season. Hendry went looking for a "lead-off" man when he should have been looking for the best player available to play CF after he gave away Patterson. No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

According to my math: crappy OBP + crappy SLG = crappy offense According to your math: crappy OBP + crappy SLG + the proper leadoff man = good offense No, just that he is the best thing for the offense. That does not mean it makes the offense good, just better than it was before.

Whether the offense is good or bad, I would expect a minimum of 360 from the leadoff spot. A quick glance shows 60 guys doing that right now. There are 119 players over 335. How many of those guys bat leadoff consistently? 2? 3?

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP. Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP? It's not just stolen bases but also the success rate in a runner's attempts to steal a bag, take that extra base, etc. Regardless of speed, I'd prefer to have a leadoff hitter that, at the very least, gets on base 35% of the time. That's the starting point. There are 8 players who have batted at least 100 at bats in the leadoff spot this year that have a .350 OBP or better. 8. That's your starting point? In fact, Jose Reyes only has a .357 OBP. Does that mean he is barely a decent leadoff hitter? Now that I look at the stats again, Pierre is probably going to get to a .340 OBP. If a .335 OBP from your leadoff hitter is horrible, and a .350-.360 is only decent, then I guess there are only 2 good leadoff men in the game.

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre. His speed becomes even more valuable on a team who is only able to score 1 run at a time. That is what I am saying about the low OBP team..they are not going to string enough hits together to score very often, so Pierre's speed creates the extra bases needed to at least drive him home some of the time. If Pierre is leading off, sometimes a hit behind him is not even needed. He can lead off, steal second, and proceed to home with 2 outs being recorded. For a team who can't get on base very well, and can't hit home runs, this ability to score with basically one hit can become very important. Instead of trying to find a leadoff man who's a good fit for a team with crummy OBP and SLG wouldn't it be a more sound strategy to try to stop being a team with crummy OBP and SLG? Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP. Then quantify it. How many SB's, and speed does it take to make up for how much OBP lost? What would be the point where his speed would offset the lack of OBP?

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need. What if he makes it to .295/.335 this year? Is that still a horrible year? And yes, he could easily make that this year-he's a career .320 average after the break, he raised his batting average 7 points last night, and he only has 17 points to go. Sure, it's not the best OBP in the league, or anywhere close. What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases. I would say 335 from my leadoff hitter would be a horrible season. So on a good offense, what do you think the OBP for leadoff hitters would be? If 335 is horrible, what is decent and what is good?

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need. What if he makes it to .295/.335 this year? Is that still a horrible year? And yes, he could easily make that this year-he's a career .320 average after the break, he raised his batting average 7 points last night, and he only has 17 points to go. Sure, it's not the best OBP in the league, or anywhere close. What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre. His speed becomes even more valuable on a team who is only able to score 1 run at a time. That is what I am saying about the low OBP team..they are not going to string enough hits together to score very often, so Pierre's speed creates the extra bases needed to at least drive him home some of the time. If Pierre is leading off, sometimes a hit behind him is not even needed. He can lead off, steal second, and proceed to home with 2 outs being recorded. For a team who can't get on base very well, and can't hit home runs, this ability to score with basically one hit can become very important.

When you consider who is batting behind Pierre as opposed to who is batting behind Ramirez, Jacque and Murton, that percentage looks even worse. Not really-Neifi batted behind Pierre a decent amount of the time. Ramirez, Jacque, and Murton have each other-and for a player like Jones, 15 of his 38 runs have been driving in himself. Also, now that Pierre has been hot, his #2 hitter Walker has been ice cold, and Lee has been pretty cold himself. The bottom of the order has been the better part of the order all season-Barrett, Jones, and Murton spent a great deal of the season hitting 5/6/7, and that is where most of the runs came from. Don't blame Pierre for Dusty's refusal to move players hitting well up the order.

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP? Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20+ million dollars per year? I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat. Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20 million dollars per year? Not on any hit, but you have to agree that Pierre's speed makes it much more likely to have him score from 1st base on a double. It also makes him much more likely to steal second, and tag up on fly balls. While this does not offset all OBP differences, it does start to make up for a lower OBP, and speed is much more valuable statistically when factored into a team with a low OBP then a high one because that is the one of the main ways for a team with a low OBP to create runs.

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP? I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat.

Here is the strange thing about Juan Pierre. If the Cubs lineup were stocked with good OBP guys, then Pierre would not be a good fit, because his speed would not be as necessary. However, if the Cubs are not a good OBP team, Pierre is a great leadoff hitter for them. Why? Because Pierre scores runs when he gets on base. When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in. When you don't have high OBP guys behind him, it is nice to only need 1 hit to get your leadoff man in. So, with this strange logic, if the rest of the team remains the same or close to it, the best leadoff hitter for this type of team is Juan Pierre.

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard). How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though). Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58. You're right about that point. I was intentionally trying to do that to show how slugging can be just as important as OBP, which at the time I thought that the person was dismissing slugging as only a nice bonus if the person had a high OBP already. Freddy Sanchez vs. Ryan Howard is actually a very good battle. Like the numbers say, I would probably take Sanchez first (production of this year mind you, if I was projecting forward I would take Howard), because he has a high OBP and still hits lots of doubles. I think 8 Ryan Howard's would beat 8 Scott Hatteberg's. 8 Freddy Sanchez's and 8 Nick Johnson's would be a very close match-I would guess because of speed factors that Sanchez would beat Howard, and Howard would beat Johnson. Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

Like I said you are basing your analysis on a half a years production while I am looking at career numbers. In the case of these other guys I will just say that because other GM's may have signed players to a bad deal, doesn't mean Hendry had too, especially when he was basically bidding against himself. (KC was the only other team showing interest) What could we do in RF then? If these players were not the answer, then who? Who is that player that could have produced for us at a better clip that was anywhere available? Many people said Brian Giles, but so far, his contract is looking like a much bigger liability. His production is falling, and he is making twice as much as Jones for the same 3 years with a 3 million dollar buyout in 2009. So if not Jones, then what was Hendry supposed to do?

I flat disagree with this. We need guys with good OBP. We have Lee, Ramirez - who have a lot of power. For the foreseeable future, we have guys like JJ and Barrett, who can contribute 20-25 HR, and 15-20 HR respectively. Add that to the 30-40 HRs a healthy Lee & ARam will have - and we have good power in the middle. Could we use another power guy? Sure, who couldn't use more power. But, what we need is OBP and lots of it. We don't need a 25 HR guy who gets on base at a .310 clip. Now, as others have said elsewhere, Hendry has no idea of the importance of OBP. As between a toolsy guy w/ no OBP and no power and a toolsy guy with no OBP and a high SLG, I'll take the latter. Thus, I hope we get a guy like Soriano, b/c Hendry just doesn't think a guy like Dunn is that valuable. True. I think with those 4, we have what we need for power, but not by all that much. If we trade any of them, we would be in trouble again in that department. Our power problems were really accentuated when Lee went down. If all 4 of them stay then, I would agree that the first priority is guys with high OBP for the starting positions. Maybe some more power on the bench that could start if one of power guys go down? That might do it-at the beginning of the year though, we had 4 slap hitters on the bench, and so when Lee went down there was simply not enough power in the lineup.

Jones is on the downside of his career and magically he is going to start putting up career best in numbers? I am not saying Jacque is horrible I am just saying he was not a good signing. Career numbers for some of the guys you mentioned and compared to for a half season. Career OPS Jones: .787 Vlad: .971 Alou: .883 Sanders: .831 Encarnacion: .756 So, of those players Jones matches up most comparably with Encarnacion yet is making about 2 million more a year. So, if you think Jones is worth the 3 years 16 million for his career .787 OPS then so be it. I just don't think you can justify the contract on a half season, and realistically I don't think he will put up an .850 OPS for three years. There is nothing in his past that would indicate that. If he does then you will have a legitimate point. I doubt Jones will put up an .850 OPS for 3 years. Let me put up some of the other right fielders however. Shawn Green-hasn't had above an .830 OPS in 3 years-making 10.2 million this year. Brian Giles-his slugging is dropping off, has had an OPS of .849, .906, and this year all the way down to .781. He is making 7.67 million this year. Kevin Mench- .763 OPS after a .797 last year. Making 2.8 million. Geoff Jenkins-.759 OPS this year, .798 and .888 before that. making 7.8 million this year. Juan Encarnacion-.755 OPS this year, previous two years .701 and .796. making 3.5 million this year. Randy Winn-had an exceptional OBP last year with only 235 at bats, now this year with full amount of at bats back to previous years with Seattle and a .755 OPS. He makes 5 million this year. Jay Payton-.694 OPS this year, two years previous were .742 and .755. He makes 4 million dollars. Magglio Ordonez-His last 3 years OPS have been .836, .795, and now this year back somewhat with a .857 OPS. He makes 16.2 million this year. Trot Nixon-his last 2 years of full-time play have an OPS of .803, and this year a very good .854. He makes 7.5 million. Jacque Jones-previous 2 years has a .742 and a .757 OPS. This year, it is .846. He makes 4.03 million this year. There are only 22 qualified right fielders so far this year. Out of those qualified, I threw out 6 of them since they hadn't hit free agency yet. I also threw out Bernie Williams since he only signed for 1.5 million (he isn't putting up good numbers anyway) Out of the 15 left, you see 10 of those. The only ones left are Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrerro, Ichiro Suzuki, and J.D. Drew. Drew could easily climb to the list above if he has another bad year with his 11+ million dollar contract. So-is Jones's contract really that much different then most of the right fielders who have hit free agency? He is getting paid less then everybody but Mench and Encarnacion, and he is hitting better then both of them. Plus, many of those guys have double the contract of Jones, or in Ordonez's case triple, which makes their production even more skeptical. If Jones even puts up a .785 OPS over the next two and a half years, the contract will be worth it compared to all the othr right fielders.

I would definitely agree with this. Jones will turn out to be an average right fielder who is making below average money. If by this hot streak however you can convince a team like the Twins that he is actually one of the top 10 right fielders in the league and get the prospects to match, then you have to make the deal. I have no problem getting rid of him, but I don't think his contract is an albatross either that we need to get rid of. If we get the right deal, he goes. Otherwise, we are getting good production for the money we are paying him.