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CubColtPacer

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Everything posted by CubColtPacer

  1. CubColtPacer
    It's possible that Hill should have come up faster from the minors in early 2006 when the Cubs starters were struggling, but I agree more with the Cubs that they wanted to get his confidence up at that point. I do agree that once they brought him up, they probably should have kept him there, but I don't see all this other time that he should have been in the rotation but wasn't-that time after he was sent down adds up to a month or possibly two. I don't feel for him losing the job in ST last year-he wasn't guaranteed a spot, and he didn't show near enough to earn the spot.
  2. CubColtPacer
    I seem to remember always hearing that breaking ball pitchers always faired worse in the dry Arizona air since the ball doesn't have as much movement. Is this something that has affected Hill in past spring trainings? Does anyone remember how he pitched last year in ST? Hill was bouncing curveballs in the dirt 5 feet in front of the plate last ST. It was enough to cost him a spot in the rotation. i don't think that's the case at all. if i remember correctly, he had one or two really bad outings and was pretty good the rest of the time. he was lights out one time when i saw him in arizona. Hill's outings last spring: 2 innings/1 hit/0 runs/1K/0BB 2 innings/4 hits/4 runs/4K/1BB/1HR allowed 2 innings/5 hits/5 runs/1K/2BB 3 innings/0 hits/0 runs/5K/3BB 4 innings/5 hits/1 run/4K/0BB 2 innings/2 hits/2 runs/3K/4BB It's certainly possible I missed one or two of his outings last spring-if I did, it was not intentional. It looks like he had a little bit of everything-2 really good innings, 7 good innings, 2 below average innings, and 4 horrible innings. It wasn't the best spring for him, although he did get better at the end until his shaky last outing.
  3. CubColtPacer
    you're right...hill has never been kept out of the rotation at the expense of a higher paid, less productive veteran. Well, actually sort of yes, sort of no. Hill's spot turned into Sean Marshall last year, so a veteran was not the person who beat Hill out. You could argue that he should have been in the rotation in June, but that's just one month-that's hardly a convincing sample size for Hill being left out because the other player is a veteran.
  4. CubColtPacer
    Well, if Walker would have stayed with the team he would have ended up over 50, but you're right, it's pretty rare. Of course, it's not very often that 4 people really get enough at-bats in order to have more than 50 walks, either.
  5. CubColtPacer
    Lee's September was close to his April numbers in batting and slugging, but curiously, he only drew 1 BB in September. Lee AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 04/03 - 04/30 44 11 14 4 0 3 27 10 12 7 0.318 0.448 0.614 1.062 06/25 - 08/30 87 12 23 4 0 1 30 7 12 26 0.264 0.354 0.345 0.698 09/01 - 10/01 44 7 13 1 0 4 26 13 1 8 0.295 0.298 0.591 0.889 04/03 - 10/01 175 30 50 9 0 8 83 30 25 41 0.286 0.368 0.474 0.842 I'm sure Lee was a little anxious to prove that he was back before this season started, and so was looking a little more for pitches that he could hit hard. Edit: I edited out the first part because it didn't make any sense when I thought over it again.
  6. CubColtPacer
    Yes, Mother's Day 2001 was when Mueller got hurt.
  7. CubColtPacer
    I see it as only speculation-earlier in the winter, Hill was in the rotation with Prior as the "6th starter" and basically no mention of Miller (all remembered from old quotes from Hendry) so I don't see how anything but Hill getting absolutely outclassed by the other pitchers during spring training, which wouldn't make me replace him but the staff might, but I can't see Hill out of the rotation in any "best-case sceario" where all the pitchers pitching well.
  8. CubColtPacer
    good news, i hope that he returns to his 2005 form, although i'm not holding my breath. I don't think he'll hit as well as he did in 2005, but I am hoping for a solid season from him. Yeah, I expect Lee to be somewhere between his career and 2005. The improvements he made before 2005 to hit the inside fastball and the respect that pitchers will show him because of that season still exists (Lee is patient enough to take full advantage of that respect), so that will help him at least have a OBP close to 4 IMO, even if his slugging returns to it's around .500 level (I am projecting it to be around 550) instead of the .662 it was in 05.
  9. CubColtPacer
    So he was only out two days? Impressive. I thought he had actually been out since the incident on Monday night, which would have made it 4-5 days.
  10. CubColtPacer
    This may be more that The Powers That Be see DeRosa as a better RF backup or platoon option since he has experience there. I've heard that he has a good outfield arm. It would make more sense to have him play RF and Theriot 2B than the reverse if you want them both in the lineup. Eric Patterson will hopefully earn a look later this season. I'm all for positional flexibility when it makes sense. That's true, and I could see Piniella putting DeRosa in RF over Jones with Theriot coming in to play 2b against lefties. Man this team really needs another infielder. If that's all these quotes from DeRosa and Piniella amount to (DeRosa/Jones vs righties and DeRosa/Theriot vs lefties)-I'll be very happy-in fact, that's what I hope these quotes are going on their way to implying.
  11. CubColtPacer
    I disagree about a back up 3b. Here's what I have for depth based on Pagan, Ward, Floyd, Theriot and Blanco: 1b: Lee, Ward, Floyd 2b: DeRosa, Theriot, Izturis SS: Izturis, DeRosa, Theriot 3b: Aramis, DeRosa, Barrett, Theriot LF: All outfielders CF: Soriano, Jones, Pagan, Theriot? RF: All outfielders C: Barrett, Blanco The 25th guy can be anyone since DeRosa can play 3b and Jones can play CF. It probably comes down to Hill, Cedeno, Pagan, Moore or McGehee. Hill is on the outside since he's not on the 40 man roster. Someone on the 40 man that goes on the 60 day DL opens up a spot for Hill. I don't believe the coaching staff believes the bolded point. They desperately try to trade Jones and look for any center fielder, and they only stop when Soriano agrees to play center so Jones can play right. It seems pretty likely that they don't believe that Jones can handle the position. BTW-Ryan Theriot has played 3rd 1 inning in his entire professional career, so unless they work on him with that like they are planning to do with center and he is as promising, I can't see him as a backup option at 3B yet.
  12. CubColtPacer
    I'm in total agreement there. Murton has plate discipline and good gap power. DeRosa is going to be handy, but we just have to wait and see if last year was a fluke, and I think Murton learned a few things last season. I'm hoping Theriot can make a statement, because I like to think he would be a better option for the Cubs in the leadoff spot. 2B Theriot LF Murton 1B Lee 3B Ramirez CF Soriano RF Jones/Floyd CA Barrett SS Izturis I just see that lineup producing more runs. I don't see DeRosa sitting the bench unless he's injured. I agree, not to mention that Soriano is not going to move out of the leadoff spot-I think Soriano at leadoff is more secure than Lee at the 3 spot or Ramirez at the 4 spot, and way more secure than any other spot. Edit: looks like goony beat me to it.
  13. CubColtPacer
    It wasn't his stuff that was a problem when he came up to the majors though-it was his control. If he gets better control, he could be effective even at 89-90 with all the movement on his pitches. I've never really been that big of a Miller fan. I see him as a slightly better version of Marquis but can't pitch because he hasn't been healthy. I think the key is that Wade gets enough strikeouts to get out of more jams than Marquis can. Like I said, he had plenty of K's last year, but he simply walked way too many people-if he cuts the walk rate a little bit this year to what he had done while healthy in previous years, he could be very effective again.
  14. CubColtPacer
    It wasn't his stuff that was a problem when he came up to the majors though-it was his control. If he gets better control, he could be effective even at 89-90 with all the movement on his pitches.
  15. CubColtPacer
    I don't see any reason why he needs that. He's not lacking playing time on his resume. I don't see him learning anything more by playing everyday in AAA as opposed to subbing at the major league level. At some point guys have to sink or swim. The time for keeping guys in the minors playing everyday is when they are 21/22 with minimal professional experience. Cedeno is 24 and has plenty of experience. Now he has to establish himself as a major leaguer, and hope to be good enough to one day start. He had a good '04, was blistering in '05, and started out '06 on fire. Then he slumped after being overexposed to Dusty. I really think he can turn it back around with a little patience, and I think he's young enough to get it with the right coaching. If the choice is Izturdis or Cedeno, I'd rather see what Perry can do with Cedeno over the course of the year. At least with Ronny, there's a sliver of hope. Izturdis is going to hit like, well, like a turd. That's already known. I would argue that Izturis has shown just as much possibility for hope as Ronny has, but that's an old argument, so I'll probably stop there :D
  16. CubColtPacer
    At this point, I don't really care about what's best for Cedeno's development. I didn't think he stood a chance of being a good regular a few years ago. But I was intrigued by his brief success a couple seasons ago. Now that's he's 24, with about 3000 professional PA, I'm not worried about finding him playing time. He's a perfectly acceptable $350,000 backup middle infielder. I would tend to agree with that-he's the backup that stays on the bench in case somebody gets hurt and should only really pinch-hit if some of the other pinch-hitters have already been used. He would probably end up playing SS on the days Izturis didn't play there.
  17. CubColtPacer
    Also, if Theriot proves he can play CF it might spell the end for Pagan in favor of another backup middle infielder. let's hope so. Well, the alternative might be Cedeno, so I don't know how happy I'd be-Cedeno on the bench would maybe not be the best thing for him, but it would probably give the Cubs greater flexibility than if Pagan was on the bench (since the Cubs would still have Murton/Soriano/Jones/Floyd/Ward/Theriot/DeRosa to play the 3 outfield spots if needed, while right now they only have DeRosa/Izturis/Aramis/Theriot to play the 2B, SS, and 3B-they need another body there, especially since people like DeRosa, Izturis, and Aramis will have more days off than people like Soriano). If they don't bring another infielder along with Theriot, then it becomes hard to pinch-hit Theriot, and I wouldn't be too happy about that.
  18. CubColtPacer
    Also, if Theriot proves he can play CF it might spell the end for Pagan in favor of another backup middle infielder.
  19. CubColtPacer
    What does this mean? Will you be shocked if he has an era between 4 and 6? Marquis' ERA will definitely be a predictions contest category. Be sure to enter. I meant that the range of possibilities for Marquis is much bigger than most pitchers because he has no consistent year-his ERA is either good to great or terrible, with nothing in between.
  20. CubColtPacer
    Soriano.
  21. CubColtPacer
    That's true-and there was an article lately that had the difference between a good hitting pitcher and a poor hitting pitcher as something like .4 ERA, right? I think that was about the difference-it was somewhere in between .3 and .6 extra value that a good hitting pitcher brought to a team over a really poor hitting one. I'm interested and would like a link. Here it is-thanks to IMB for helping me remember where to look: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hitting-pitchers/ They have the difference between the best hitting pitchers and the worst at about half a run of ERA.
  22. CubColtPacer
    That's true-and there was an article lately that had the difference between a good hitting pitcher and a poor hitting pitcher as something like .4 ERA, right? I think that was about the difference-it was somewhere in between .3 and .6 extra value that a good hitting pitcher brought to a team over a really poor hitting one.
  23. CubColtPacer
    I edited my post-I didn't read your post on DERA or NRA until after I had finished my post, and as I said in that post, I'd need to know the exact calculations that went into it before attaching the credibility to I that it probably deserves. Which means you'll be coming back to admit he's not a league average pitcher in 3...2....1... Let's just say this-not anytime soon. Although I freely admit that I will not be surprsied if Marquis has an ERA below 4 or an ERA above 6, and there's not many pitchers I can say that about.
  24. CubColtPacer
    I edited my post-I didn't read your post on DERA or NRA until after I had finished my post, and as I said in that post, I'd need to know the exact calculations that went into it before attaching the credibility to it that it probably deserves.
  25. CubColtPacer
    I'm saying you can't call all 3 years as luck and defense-3 good years out of 6 with 2 different clubs is not likely to be luck. He started out with more strikeouts and walks in 01, and then in 04 he cut down on both his strikeouts and walks. Don't you think Marquis must be doing something to create some of this "luck" to have as many good years as he has had? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/marquja01.php If you look at these numbers, and in particular the NRA and DERA numbers (click them for an explanation), you'll find that Marquis actually only has two good seasons (good = anything above average) and that he's had the benefit of pitching in front of a good defense every year of his career. I also see how they have him as about a career league average pitcher-which is how I see him, an average pitcher. Edit: When I said that, I was looking at his translated statistics, which I'm still not sure about either-I would have to know the exact calculations that went in to DERA and NRA before I'm ready to attach the credibility to it that it probably deserves.
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