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What a yawner of a game. Neither team looked like they cared very much. The Pacers certainly didn't as they let the bench play most of the minutes and didn't even bother going back to the starters in the 4th (and of course they sat out two players as well). The Bulls look like they also played their bench a little more than usual as well although not as much as the Pacers. I wish they hadn't scheduled the only Bulls trip to Indiana for the last game of the season.

It sounds like the Pacers are going to try a little harder to win than they did Monday (when they sat 3 starters and chose to let 3rd stringers start in their place just so the bench could continue playing together). I think they're still choosing to rest Granger though, and I doubt they'll push the rest of the starters that hard either. If the Bulls try at all tomorrow night they should cruise.

Soto at his worst is a slightly below average starting catcher (he was below average most starters last year in OPS and especially in OBP, and all his raw numbers and metrics have him as very close to average defensively). The scary thing with him is that he is starting to lose his upside. His 2008 and 2010 were both great. His 2009 was mostly due to bad luck. Last year was his first year where he really regressed and this year has continued that trend. Should the Cubs be looking to replace him? Not unless they think Castillo has a solid shot to be an average catcher or better himself. But the odds of the Cubs seeing the 2008-2010 Soto anytime soon seem to be fading.

Too much garbage in WAR. You trust the defensive metrics for catchers and 1Bs? I sure don't. LaHair will out-OPS Soto. You could just take the defensive metrics out of the equation (and baserunning too if you want)...just add their offensive, replacement, and positional values together. That would be more accurate than just using OPS in this case since the positional value of catchers is so, so much higher than 1B, while not having to worry if a strange defensive number significantly impacted their WAR or not. Soto's peripherals continue to be worrying though. That BB/K ratio which was a major problem last year has just continued so far this year.

I am way out of my league at this point. To speed it along (sorry exile) I'll go ahead any pick anyway. The Colts could use a receiving TE, so I'll go with Ladarius Green, TE out of Louisiana-Lafayette.

Torreyes is another guy who is showing increased walks so far. He only had 15 walks in the U.S. the last 2 years in 386 AB's (he had 23 in Venezuela). Now he has 6 already this year with 45 AB's. He also has 6 K's, which is way up for him too. Plus he's already had 5 extra base hits compared to only 17 last year.

I keep reminding myself that Rizzo is *still* young for the league. Yup. Only 3 weeks older than Vitters in fact.

Delaying free agency and super 2 are different concepts that it seems like people are lumping together. If it hasn't happened already, in the next few days the Cubs will have delayed Jackson's free agency for another year. The Super 2 date isn't usually until late May/early June depending on the year, but that's about when a player hits arbitration, not when a player is allowed to get to free agency. So in the case of Castro, the Cubs held him down long enough to delay his free agency, but not long enough to avoid him being a Super 2. So he'll start arbitration after this year, but he'll have 4 arbitration years so he will have been in the majors almost 7 years before he hits free agency.

I think Campana's arm is seen as a little better than that. Average to maybe a little below average, but not so bad that teams are actively looking to take extra bases like Pierre. And that's really all you need in CF, where there tend to be less close plays where a better arm would make much of a difference.

Agreed with all this, except Byrd and Campana are equivalent defenders(Byrd might actually be better), but that's mitigated by Byrd's value being tied to the time that he can spend on his new team's roster this season. Thank you for pointing out Byrd's defense which is still good to very good, and that Campana's defensive value is still unknown at this point. It will be interesting to see how the metrics grade Campana this year. I know last year UZR thought he was just amazing defensively mostly due to amazing range numbers, and with his elite pure speed that makes at least some sense. But it's hard to gauge how accurate that is without some extended time out there.

I think this deal makes a lot of sense even if the Cubs got essentially nothing but maybe a million of salary relief. Campana gets a better look by the new management to see what he has, there's no question of where Byrd goes when Jackson is ready. And Campana's speed and defense will likely be more valuable to this year's Cubs than Byrd's rapidly declining bat anyway. As for Byrd possibly being able to raise his trade value, you could flip that around and say that Campana will help the pitcher's trade values because of his elite defense in CF. I don't see Byrd's value increasing to get real legitimate pieces anyway-at best you would get a lottery ticket at the deadline if things went well.

I might be crazy, but I think I'd rather play Boston than Indiana. I know Boston has played well lately, but I think I'd still rather see that series than playing Indiana again. In a vacuum, I'd probably rather play Indiana. But the idea of Boston making things tough for Miami or even bouncing them intrigues me. Did you mean that in a vacuum you'd rather not play Indiana? The but confused me since obviously if you get Indiana, you get the benefit of Boston playing Miami too. That wouldn't be an either/or. Both teams have been playing well down the stretch. Since March 17th, Indiana is 16-4 while Boston is 14-5. Boston obviously has the wealth of playoff experience as a group while Indiana's new guys are the only ones with significant playoff experience (West, Hill, Barbosa, Amundson). I'm trying not to be a homer, but I'll say Chicago would want to avoid Indiana for one big reason. Both Boston and Indiana have roughly equal chances of upsetting Chicago (if push came to shove, I'd say as I did last week that Indiana has a little better chance against Chicago while Boston has a little better of a chance against Miami, but that's irrelevant to this point). But with the Bulls having so many guys already with nagging injuries, having such a bruising series against Indiana would be a huge detriment to the Bulls being healthy going into a potential Miami series. Hopefully not from anything dirty, but those will be highly physical contests between two long, physical type teams. Playing Boston might give just as long of a series, but the wear and tear from those games will likely be less. Honestly, I'm not terribly afraid of losing to either Boston or Indiana if the Bulls are at full strength. Obviously a big "if". For me, we've seen the Bulls vs Indiana series last year, and I didn't find it to be so compelling that I want to see it again. I understand that opinion. Just giving you a reason you don't want to face Indiana even if you are 100% sure you will beat them. They'll take a lot out of your tank going forward. The second point I don't understand as much. This Indiana team is dramatically different from last year's version. They run their offense differently, they have 2 new starters and 2 key bench players that are new. Whether last year's result was compelling has very little to do with this year because other than the name on the uniform and a couple of key players, the team they'll be facing is dramatically different. Of course there's some satisfaction in knocking out the Big 3 for the last time, so I can see why a Boston series might be more entertaining in that way.

I might be crazy, but I think I'd rather play Boston than Indiana. I know Boston has played well lately, but I think I'd still rather see that series than playing Indiana again. In a vacuum, I'd probably rather play Indiana. But the idea of Boston making things tough for Miami or even bouncing them intrigues me. Did you mean that in a vacuum you'd rather not play Indiana? The but confused me since obviously if you get Indiana, you get the benefit of Boston playing Miami too. That wouldn't be an either/or. Both teams have been playing well down the stretch. Since March 17th, Indiana is 16-4 while Boston is 14-5. Boston obviously has the wealth of playoff experience as a group while Indiana's new guys are the only ones with significant playoff experience (West, Hill, Barbosa, Amundson). I'm trying not to be a homer, but I'll say Chicago would want to avoid Indiana for one big reason. Both Boston and Indiana have roughly equal chances of upsetting Chicago (if push came to shove, I'd say as I did last week that Indiana has a little better chance against Chicago while Boston has a little better of a chance against Miami, but that's irrelevant to this point). But with the Bulls having so many guys already with nagging injuries, having such a bruising series against Indiana would be a huge detriment to the Bulls being healthy going into a potential Miami series. Hopefully not from anything dirty, but those will be highly physical contests between two long, physical type teams. Playing Boston might give just as long of a series, but the wear and tear from those games will likely be less.

And now Howard is having surgery and is done for the year. Just stay in that 6 seed Orlando. They haven't been playing horribly without him, but I don't see it very likely at all that they can beat Indiana 4 times without Howard. And I certainly don't them to drop to 7 and give Miami a free series (thankfully their magic number is only 2 to avoid that).

Couldn't you time one of those intentional walk pitches pretty well for a steal of home? Right handed batter so the catcher is already off the plate, soft tosses, pitcher up next with 2 outs. Seems like a pretty solid time to give that a try.

Miami blew them out badly the first two times, the 3rd one the Pacers had it won and then let it slip away in OT (James hit a 3 to force OT and then Wade hit a game winner with 0.1 left in OT). The 4th time was a blowout the Pacers way. The Pacers do have some matchups that can bother the Heat (they're one of the only teams in the NBA with enough good defenders at the wing positions to guard James/Wade, and their size inside could bother Miami) but they have to make shots. They've been doing that in the second half of the season (averaged 101.8 points over their last 19 games) while they were really struggling offensively to begin the year when they played the Heat the first 2 times. As for the being physical point, Indiana's probably more physical than they were last year. It's a calling card of theirs. They talk about being smashmouth all the time, and they're among the league leaders in both free throws attempted and among the worst in giving up free throws. I'm not sure how much that will be a factor in tiring out Miami though. LeBron is so strong it almost doesn't matter, and it's not Bosh's game to be physical like that. So they would probably only tire out Wade.

Ray Allen to Memphis would've been for O.J. Mayo and a draft pick. Mayo would be a restricted FA. I imagine the draft pick would've been a 2nd rounder. I'm surprised at the Pierce deal, but I can see the reasoning of it and why it's a good deal although on paper it looked horrible. If both went through, it would've been a very interesting offseason for the Celtics. C's would've had enough money to give 2- max contracts or near it. They also would've had 3- 1st round picks this year (assuming the lottery pick from the Nets was for this year) and 5 draft picks total so they could move up in the draft to get their guy if they wanted to. Plus they would've miss the playoffs this year IMO if they did the trades so their own pick this year would be better (then they would have the Clippers and Nets pick that they got from the Rockets- I'm assuming here, but that Nets pick isn't a lottery pick so it could be a different year for that pick in the Pierce trade). If I go by the NBA mock draft at walterfootball.com, the C's would have these guys... (disregard on who C's would sign with all their cap space and their need at the moment as these would change as soon as Allen/Pierce were gone) 18. John Henson, PF (Nets pick from Rockets) 22. Fab Melo, C (C's pick that would've ended up higher and possibly lottery pick) 24. John Jenkins, SG (Clippers pick) 42. Henry Sims, C 52. Ricardo Ratliffe, PF They would be an extremely young team, but really talented. The best part about it is that they most likely would be a playoff team next year with a completely new team because they got Rondo/Bradley/whoever they ended up signing. It's better than that. The Nets were willing to give their own pick that they ended up giving to Portland at the trade deadline (only top 3 protected), not the Rockets one. So their pick would have been a top 10 one.

Last night was poor on the baserunning front (although they did have one play that worked out with the decently aggressive send of Clevenger). Overall, aggressive baserunning has worked for the Cubs so far IMO, but as the weather warms up and offense picks up a little bit they should dial it down somewhat.

Boston can't finish worse than 4th, so pretty much the only way they'd face the Heat is if the Pacers choke hard. And honestly, I don't see New York being all that much of a speed bump. It's hard to say. The Knicks are 13-5 since their coaching change. And they do have the 7th best point differential in the NBA (5th in the East). They've had a wildly fluctuating roster all season long and so it's been hard to judge their true talent level. Stoudamire could come back as early as this weekend, with Lin not likely to be back unless they somehow made it to the 2nd round. My best guess is that it would be a 5, maybe 6 game series with the Heat. But most of the games will probably be close, which is probably better than most 7-8 seeds would give (and certainly better than the Bulls will likely get, as Philly and Milwaukee will both likely be very easy outs).

I think they must be giving Atlanta a pretty good edge in their game against Boston because it's at home. That makes sense for a computer model since Atlanta is 19-9 at home while Boston is 15-16 on the road. Both play the Knicks, but Boston gets them in NY where the Knicks have been much better while Atlanta gets them in Atlanta. Detroit at home is easier than Milwaukee at home, the computers probably don't know what to do with Dallas/Orlando, and the Clippers/Miami game is close too. So if they have Atlanta winning 60% of the time over Boston, plus an easier other 4 games, it makes some sense why they would project them to have HCA so much. I personally think it will go to Boston because I think they'll beat Atlanta, but whoever wins that game has the clear inside track.

That's weird, I felt like I saw him at something other than 3B a few times. Has he been batting 8th this whole time? I don't know if it's been every game, but most games, yeah. I don't think it's been every game (I think he was higher in the order to start). And I'm pretty sure 1 of those games that he played at 3B he didn't start.

I don't know that I'd call it bizarre, but his BABIP has been going down the past couple of years while his LD% has been going up - and right in line with his career LD%. Tack 30 points onto his BABIP to get it in line with his career BABIP and his numbers probably take a pretty decent jump up. It's very likely that Upton was BABIP lucky his first few years more than being BABIP unlucky these last few. Plus he's changed who he is as a hitter the last few years. His GB/FB ratio has changed dramatically-he used to be a major ground ball hitter and now he's even, and that's going to cut into his BABIP. He's already a very good player, but I don't see much room for any more of a breakout in his peripherals.

Ok, well to move it along I'll go ahead and pick. There could be better talents on the board that I'm missing, but to improve their corner play and possibly their returning both which were terrible last year the Colts select Brandon Boykin, CB out of Georgia.

I'll give Exile a couple hours here to post his thoughts and pick this afternoon sometime.

So we had this last year: Vitters-22 BB's with 449 AB's Ha-23 BB's with 520 AB's Szczur-26 BB's with 447 AB's And so far this year: Vitters-3 BB's with 26 AB's Ha-4 BB's with 33 AB's Szczur-7 BB's with 29 AB's Szczur and Ha's strikeouts have gone up so far while Vitters have not. But it's clear what the heavy emphasis is on. I'm intrigued to see Lake come back now to see if he exhibits a similar sort of change.