CubColtPacer
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Everything posted by CubColtPacer
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And the 15th best selling jersey in all of baseball is ....
CubColtPacer replied to Brian's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
and my point was less about comparing them statistically and more about people clamoring over a guy who is maybe 5th or 6th best on his own team. latent racism? who knows, but there is no reason at all that Theriot should be selling jerseys at such a high rate when he really is just sort of okay. he doesn't even really have much personality Agreed, although you have to remember that jersey sales are always tilted towards rookies/players with new teams. Theriot is basically a rookie with a catchy nickname-there aren't that many of them out there. My guess is that in regular jersey sales, Theriot is probably still behind Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, and Zambrano. -
And the 15th best selling jersey in all of baseball is ....
CubColtPacer replied to Brian's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I wish the eckstein references would stop. While I agree that people (and the media) love their "scrappy", light hitting, white middle infielders; Theriot doesn't exactly fall into that category. Just take a look at their slg/ops over the past 3 years: Eckstein 2005: .395/.758 2006: .344/.694 2007: .363/.706 CAREER: .360/.710 (7 Seasons) Theriot 2005: *Only had 14 PA* 2006: .522/.934 (159 PA) 2007: .374/.724 CAREER: .408/.771 (3 seasons) I realize he's never going to be some bigtime slugger, but he's proved to have more pop than eckstein with 2 more of both homers and doubles over the past two seasons. And while two isn't really a big difference, when you consider he's done it in nearly 300 fewer PA, it becomes a little more significant. Theriot's minor league numbers and major league numbers this season match up pretty closely to Eckstein's. Theriot's 2006 major league numbers are the only aberration in the data set. He is really a very similar player to Eckstein. He has maybe slightly more pop and slightly less OBP ability, but they are still close enough to be a valid comparison. -
zambrano signs
CubColtPacer replied to illiniguy's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Compared to the pitching market? Hardly. Z would have gotten 7 years, 130 million+ out there. Props to BleacherBadger for bringing us this news last night! -
I'm not surprised by the Cubs withdrawing him. They need him right now for the race. As far as next season goes, Jones should have a little bit more value on the trade market if the Cubs want to trade him. He'll only have 1 year left as opposed to 1 1/2, and his recent play has probably convinced some teams wondering if he was simply done. I'm still not sure the Cubs could get much in return, but they can probably get out of his deal without paying anything just as much in December as they could have if they had let him go to the claiming team now. As far as Patterson goes, his July was this: .340/.359/.510, and his August is this: .288/.328/.424. For somebody looking for outfield help, Patterson is not bad for a month and half stopgap, and remember whoever claims him can simply non-tender him in the offseason. I can understand why somebody claimed him-I'm not quite sure why the Orioles pulled him back.
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Jacque Jones' first half = fluke
CubColtPacer replied to Warren Brusstar's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I gave jones plenty of chances, and at this point he's the best option that the cubs have in CF. But that's saying more about the condition of their CF situation than about jock. He was fine at 2006 production, but this year he's been lousy. If Jones keeps his hot streak up for even another week or two, he might be getting closer to 2006 production then you think. He has raised his season OPS 94 points in August-that's amazing this far into the season. To be worth 5 million as a CF, he probably would only need to raise that OPS 25-30 points more. If he can do that by the end of the season, he actually would be worth his contract this season-something I didn't think would be possible whatsoever a month or two ago. -
When the Cubs were leading 12-4 in the bottom of the 8th, Jones singled and as he was turning to head out of the batter's box appeared to twist his ankle slightly. He didn't run very hard to first. The Cubs sent Pie in to pinch-run for him, but if it was a close game my guess is that Jones would have been able to stay in. He walked off of the field on his own power unaccompanied.
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Considering that if I saw the situation correctly the trainer didn't even come out, and Jones walked back to the dugout without assistance, I would consider it likely that he plays tomorrow.
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What if... Pie/Marshall/??
CubColtPacer replied to StMarksCubs's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Actually, save one inning, he had a good start today. but he had that inning, and it wasn't a good start. except for the two home runs lilly gave up last night, he had a good day! Yeah, it wasn't a good start, but it does appear like Marquis is stabilizing a bit. His last 4 starts have only raised his ERA by .05 combined. He still has a pretty good shot of staying right around a 4.50 for the season, which would be just fine. That would make him a league average pitcher overall, and a slightly above average starting pitcher. -
You can't have 10 hitters in your lineup. BTW, I know people don't want this to happen, but Lou has said once again a day or two ago that Soriano is his leadoff hitter. I'm more concerned about the position of the other hitters-it seems likely that Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez are going to stick in their spots unless something drastic happens.
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Can you imagine saying those two sentences two months ago? No, I really can't. I thought he would have a chance of getting back to his career norms against right-handers, but never anything like this. BTW, an interesting note: Jacque Jones in 2007 vs right: .272/.329/.397 vs left: .300/.375/.420 Is that not a strange stat. Most of the reason for that is that Jones had very, very few AB's against left-handers when he wasn't red hot. The at-bats yesterday and today are about 1/5 of his total at-bats against left-handers for the entire season. Still, people are going to look at every other year for Jacque and his woeful numbers against left-handers, and then come to this year and go :shock:
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Looking now, it looks like the problem might not be as much in these lineup holes anymore. RF will be hopefully covered by Murton. It will be interesting to see when Floyd gets back if Murton still plays a ton, but my guess is that Murton has earned the majority of time at this point. C-Kendall probably won't do as well as he has so far for the Cubs, but he is on quite a streak right now. This certainly doesn't look like an offensive black hole in the lineup right now. 1 out of every 5 days, there is definitely a hole when Hill is in the lineup. CF-Jacque Jones is simply scalding the ball right now-he is hot as any player I've seen in quite a while. Obviously he isn't going to keep his August up (it would be just about impossible for him to keep up between a 1.100 and a 1.200 OPS as he has right now through the first two weeks of August). By the same token, I'm not sure you can call this an offensive hole anymore either. He had the OBP in July, and in August he's added the power to it. SS-probably still the biggest hole, although Theriot has been very good at times. In September, when Soriano comes back, the likely lineup will be: Soriano Theriot Lee Ramirez Jones DeRosa Murton Kendall Pitcher I think that's a better lineup now than anything the Cubs have put up earlier in the season (even if one of Jones or Kendall simply collapse and start being terrible again). Basically, I'm not sure the offense will be as much of a problem in the final few weeks of the season, especially when Soriano gets back. The pitching is probably more concerning to me right now-the pitching carried the offense through most of the year, it's only fair if the offense carries the pitching a little bit down the stretch.
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Would everyone be content if he was the backup catcher? Or does he have to start? Why not let him backup at the least? Oh, I definitely want him to come up and be the backup catcher. I'm just wondering for the people calling for Soto if they think he has to be the starter to be productive (as has been said for other young position players). I would love for him to replace Koyie Hill, but I think Kendall should get most of the PT at catcher right now.
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That was a double no matter what, I fail to see the problem. The ground is extremely wet. There was absolutely no way it was going to be a double. If you watch the replay, after Murton misplays it, you then see Valentin pick up the pace and take 2nd. He was going to stay at 1st otherwise. When Valentin hit the 1st base bag, he was jogging-he wasn't going anywhere.
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people have proven that lineup order has little affect on outcomes of games Not to mention that why people have been saying this, Theriot has been terrible lately before today: Here's his August line: .288/.306/.339 And here is his last 7 days: .250/.241/.286 Both of those are coming into play today.
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On the Griffey play? Griffey hit one off of the top of the wall. The runners waited up to see if Fox caught it, and the guy who was on 2nd originally stopped at 3rd. Griffey thought for sure it was an easy double, and so he just was coasting into 2nd and got caught between first and second and tagged out.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-15-2007
CubColtPacer replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
That's true, and like I said in my last post comparing AA numbers to ML numbers was a bad idea. They are very different leagues, and AA slugging numbers are way down across the board. If you compare Colvin's ISOP to his league, he stacks up much more favorably. Here are the ISOP's of the different teams in AA: Tennessee: .122 Mobile: .136 Mississippi: .123 Montgomery: .135 Jacksonville: .140 Hunstville: .116 Chattanooga: .140 Birmingham: .110 Carolina: .160 West Tenn: .132 So Colvin has a slightly higher ISOP than the best team number in the league, and much better than all the other teams. Taking CF's only probably would make Colvin that much more above average for his league. His slugging is no amazing number, but it'd definitely above average. Note: I used team numbers because only using qualified hitters in AA excludes most of the best players that have been promoted at some point in the season, and I wanted to get their at-bats included in the sample to make it more fair. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-15-2007
CubColtPacer replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I wouldn't say without power. Right now his AA numbers project him to hit 30-35 doubles, 6-8 triples, and 15-20 homers over a full season. While that isn't a ton of power, that's certainly not no power. His slugging percentage is .459 That's pretty much no power. It would be 68th out of 176 qualified players in the major leagues. So that would be an above average slugging percentage overall. If you look at just CF's, he would be 6th out of 22 qualified. He would be just behind Grady Sizemore, and ahead of guys like Bill Hall, Mike Cameron, Vernon Wells, and Andruw Jones. If you have a SLG percentage above .450, that is not even close to no power. It's not great, but it is definitely above average. Now, his numbers at Tennessee are not that exciting overall still, but the numbers since the break are much better and are somewhat exciting. Hopefully as time goes on he shows that the first 70 at-bats was just adjusting to AA. When are you going to learn that it is not ok to project from a limited set of data? Colvin may very well be an average to above average power hitter some day, but the numbers don't say it is so. What numbers? At every minor league stop he's been at, he's been an average to above average power hitter. That was the case at Boise, it was the case at Daytona, and it is the case at Tennessee. In fact, by comparing him to the major leagues, I was actually doing Colvin a disservice. The Southern League is not exactly a power league. The top team in the league has a .409 SLG percentage. Colvin has a .459. He has above average power in AA, just like he did in his previous two spots. Colvin's OBP is his problem, not his SLG. -
Gore, Manning, Parker I need to select 2 myself of: Manning, Addai, Maroney, Rudi Johnson, Housh, Colston, McGahee.
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Can I ask a question? Why does that matter? Every year is different: new roster, new situation, etc. etc. Why does past history (success or failure) mean that the same thing will happen in the present (or even likely to happen)? Why the Cubs have played the Cardinals well the past few years or why Z has pitched well against them doesn't mean the Cubs will win the series or Z will win the game. Guess I never understood that logic. Ken Well, there is a small factor for ballpark (although most of the time there are so many other factors that success at a ballpark is mostly white noise, although it's much easier to pick out for pitchers than for hitters). For a team like the Cardinals though, their 3 main hitters have mostly stayed the same over the last few years (Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds). Here is Z against each of them: Pujols: 44 AB's, .205/.294/.455 Rolen: 44 AB's, .182/.234/.386 Edmonds: 38 AB's, .211/.375/.395 I'm not sure you can find another pitcher out there that can boast of those numbers against those 3 combined. Z has always done well against the Cardinals because he has consistently shut down the middle of their order. In fact, the Cardinals are in deep trouble according to the matchups. Encarnacion is 2 of 19 against Z. Eckstein is 3 of 19. Molina is 4 of 18 (with 1 HR). Duncan is 3 of 12, all singles. They have a couple of hitters that have been decent against Z, but for the most part Z has owned the Cardinals from top to bottom. BTW, the Cardinals hitters as a whole are hitting .208/.286/.331 against Z. The chances are pretty good that he'll have a nice bounce back start this weekend.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-15-2007
CubColtPacer replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I wouldn't say without power. Right now his AA numbers project him to hit 30-35 doubles, 6-8 triples, and 15-20 homers over a full season. While that isn't a ton of power, that's certainly not no power. His slugging percentage is .459 That's pretty much no power. It would be 68th out of 176 qualified players in the major leagues. So that would be an above average slugging percentage overall. If you look at just CF's, he would be 6th out of 22 qualified. He would be just behind Grady Sizemore, and ahead of guys like Bill Hall, Mike Cameron, Vernon Wells, and Andruw Jones. If you have a SLG percentage above .450, that is not even close to no power. It's not great, but it is definitely above average. Now, his numbers at Tennessee are not that exciting overall still, but the numbers since the break are much better and are somewhat exciting. Hopefully as time goes on he shows that the first 70 at-bats was just adjusting to AA.

