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people got it. you are incorrect. he certainly is. run through the numbers if you'd like. and let me provide this link viewtopic.php?t=43717 So your argument is that Zambrano's hitting makes up for the pitching deficit, huh? Well I took you up on your invitation to run through the numbers. Zambrano has produced 11 runs (8 runs + 5 RBI - 2 HR = 11 RP). Lilly has produced 9 runs (5 runs + 4 RBI - 0 HR = 9 RP). Hill has produced 5 runs (0 runs + 5 RBI - 0 HR = 5 RP). So let's just net those runs produced with the bat off of each guy's earned runs allowed on the mound and see what we get. Lopping off 11 earned runs drops Zambrano's ERA from 4.06 to 3.51. With 9 fewer ER, Lilly's ERA falls from 3.85 to 3.16. 5 fewer ER nudges Hill's ERA from 3.68 to 3.06. I don't agree with that method of determining the impact, but that's not why I'm making this post. Let me just correct a little math: 5 fewer ER's drops Hill's ERA from 3.68 to 3.40 9 fewer ER's drops Lilly's ERA from 3.85 to 3.37 Z's is correct (it actually rounds to 3.50) Again, I'll leave the criticism of the method to others (I think you have a short way of getting a general feel for their offensive production, but you're leaving out where base hits by the pitcher leads to runs later in the inning, which is going to throw your numbers off enough to not make it worthwhile to do it that way). I just wanted to correct those calculations though.

It's too bad Iowa's season isn't another couple weeks longer. Koyie Hill would be an interesting experiment to how much there is a divide between MLB and AAA this season. Koyie is already 3/5 with a double in AAA. To match his MLB production, he just needs 12 more hits in his next 88 at-bats :shock:. My guess is given the opportunity he'd be well above that. Here's Hill's overall AAA line on the season: .331/.368/.489 (133 AB's). When one of the worst hitters in MLB can go down and put up an .850+ OPS, I start to become wary of AAA numbers this year (Pie, Cedeno, Fontenot are also examples of players who's conversion is crazy. Your numbers should go down going from AAA to MLB, but not normally nearly as much as those 4 have).

Oh God. Are you seriously citing a player's facial expressions now?? Seriously?? Oh God. Yes I am. Seriously. Only a fool would think that something's not wrong with him based on that, and his poor offensive production this year. But don't let me muddy up your pollyannish view of this team, that's everything's just swell. I am impressed with your ability to judge people emotions and feelings based on their expressions. You must be one of the best poker players in mankind, I bet you can just see through people's poker faces. Let me ask you something. Can you tell if Zambrano cares whether he wins or loses? Yes, but Z wears his emotions on his sleeve. Some people are more reserved then that and contain their emotions, but that doesn't mean the emotions are any less strong. For example, Lee's always been like what you describe. Some players like to treat it as a game and go out and have a great time, while other players like to be serious most of the time. Without talking to both types, it's impossible to know which one cares more about winning, if there's any difference at all.

Since it is a proven fact that a vast majority of players do not hit any worse or better in these situations than normal ones. Would it be appropriate to assume that Murton will improve to the norm in these situations. Kind of like it was appropriate to assume that Jones would improve in the 2nd half because he was not nearly as bad as he was in the first half One thing that I find more and more strange as the season has progressed is Murtons complete inability to pinch-hit. Yet Piniella seems to send him up there quite a bit to pinch hit. I havent figured them but I would venture to guess that Murtons numbers as a starter are not really that bad. His pinchhitting numbers probably .3really pull them down. Murton's numbers while in the game as an OF (pretty much only as a starter) .275/.341/.388

I'd like to see his WHIP (1.50 after tonight) and his walks (6 in 9 1/3 innings) go down a little bit, but he hasn't been terrible.

Samardzija is apparently not done yet. 7 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 K/0 BB, HBP, HR, 11 GO-8 FO

Pat and Ron made a reference to the movement on his fastball last night and how that was unusual for Hill.

Desperation on the Brewers side really helps optimism for us. This is a pretty big gamble in starting Sheets, hopefully it doesn't pan out for the Brewers. It just sucks that whenever we should knock a guy around we end up getting shut out or something. I have a feeling Sheets will struggle with control, and I'm afraid our hitters just wont let themselves get ahead in counts. But again, I still think we drop a big crooked number on Sheets in the first couple innings. It sure would help if the Cubs approach Sheets as opponents seem to approach Zambrano - take, take, take and let him pitch himself into trouble. I'm not sure that's the right strategy. Yes, the Cubs should try to be patient against Sheets tonight. Sheets walks so few guys though that if you are committed to taking a couple pitches, you've got a pretty good shot of being down 0-2. I'd want my 1st couple hitters to be extra patient against Sheets and see how his control is coming back from his injury. If his control is spotty, keep taking pitches and drive his pitch count up. If the Cubs just are committed to taking pitches though, they most likely will be down in a lot of counts.

Yeah, if we didn't have Pie, I'd be perfectly fine having Jacque as our CF for the last year of his deal. Being that Pie is here and has little left to prove in AAA, I hope Jacque gets traded in the offseason. I wouldn't be shocked though to see the Cubs move Jacque back to RF, have him platoon with Murton, and have Pie play full-time in CF. That wouldn't be awful, but it would be far from the best option.

Wow-I just looked at the 2nd half home run numbers. Lee leads the way with 9 home runs. The next one? 3 (Aramis, Soriano, Jones, Murton). That's awful. Lee's second half has started to convince me that he can be a 25-30 home run guy again next year. I doubt he'll ever get anywhere near 2005 levels in power-maybe in OBP, but not in his HR and SLG.

His OPS in the second half is .851. Please find me CF'ers we could have had with a better second half OPS. His OPS over his last 30 games is .924. It's clear that his abhorrent start is affecting that OPS greatly, so comments like yours are clearly disingenuous because they look at his numbers in a vacuum. It's clear he's been a different Jock since the break. Posting those numbers wouldn't help you though.l So only posting his good numbers is more genuine? Jones has been awful this year. But he's been great for much of the 2nd half. Good for him. It's always fun to see a hot Jacque, because hot Jacque really hits the ball hard and can rack up the XBH. It's just unfortunate that he's so rarely hot. It's just that we're in the middle of the season right now. Jacque got criticized plenty for his play in April-June. There was even a 50 page thread where everybody was really happy he got traded, and rightly so. At the same point, he deserves to be praised for his recent play. Let's analyze the full season after the year-right now Jones deserves praise because he has kept this team in first place the past month. Let's put it another way-did Marquis not deserve criticism in June and July because his overall numbers still looked quite good? Of course he did, because he was struggling. By the same token, Jacque deserves praise for his recent play even though the full season numbers still are slightly below average for a CF. btw-this post isn't a complete direct reply to you, it's more of a general reply to a few posts in the thread.

Somebody needs to tell Fonzie to lay off the first pitch or two tonight...make Sheets work early.... Maybe he could talk to the Riot about that... Or maybe not: Soriano: 3.65 P/PA Theriot: 3.59 P/PA Do you have the above statistics for his stretch in the one spot? In the leadoff spot: Soriano; 3.62 P/PA Theriot: 3.47 P/PA

It's not exactly a rare chance for FIU. Here are their major conference teams they play this year: At Penn State Maryland At Miami At Kansas At Arkansas They also played at Miami, at Alabama, and at Maryland last year. It's actually quite sad. FIU is trying to build their football program, but their AD appears more willing to want the money from these big schools instead of trying to find competitive games for his team. Every small school is going to have a game or two against a big school that they don't have a chance in, but FIU takes it way too far.

Somebody needs to tell Fonzie to lay off the first pitch or two tonight...make Sheets work early.... Maybe he could talk to the Riot about that... Or maybe not: Soriano: 3.65 P/PA Theriot: 3.59 P/PA

They can't let him stay in AAA next season as he's used up all his options. That's right, I forgot about that. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't imagine Lou will be too happy about keeping him as the backup IF on his squad next year. I cannot see them exposing Cedeno to be picked up, so if he is still a Cub at ST, I think he probably makes the team. He's a prime candidate to be traded in the offseason though.

Here comes Cedeno again. He still could be a useful MLB starter, but I don't see it happening in Chicago. He's had his chances, and he probably has burned his chances here to develop into a starting SS. Besides in September (when he'll just ride the bench anyway as a callup) should the Cubs just let him stay in AAA next year, get some great numbers out of him, and then try to trade him mid-season?

Oh, I'd definitely agree. I probably still would have played it closer to the way you suggest than the way Yost played it. I actually put no stock in the 4 AB's against Linebrink-that's so few at-bats that one hard hit out that falls for a double changes the statistics all the way. The 10 at-bats is a little more statistically significant only because of the extra base hits. If Jacque had been 4/10 with 4 singles, then it could just be passed off as luck. 2 HR's and a double could still be mostly lucky pitches, but it's a lot less likely. Also, there are about 3 Cubs who the Brewers would really love to save that situational left-hander for (4 if you count Pie). With Jones having great numbers against Shouse, even in a limited number of at-bats, it just wasn't the right time to use him, especially after Linebrink entered the game which meant the Brewers probably would have had to use 3 relievers to get out of the 7th if they brought in Shouse. Like I said, I wouldn't have played it the way Yost did, but I don't think it's completely cut and dry that he's wrong either.

Ok, two things: Suppan did not continue easily mowing down the Cubs lineup as the game wore along. In the 5th, he gave up a double and a single to the pitcher. In the 6th, he had a hard hit ball straight to the center fielder, a single off of the corner wall in right, and a very hard hit ball that happened to go right to Braun for a 5-4-3 DP. Then in the 7th he starts with the Floyd HBP. The Cubs had started to hit just about every ball hard off of Suppan those last 7 batters that he had faced. It was only a matter of time before the Cubs broke through with the balls they were hitting (as opposed to the first 4 2/3, where they mostly looked clueless). As for Shouse not coming in, I was shocked that Yost didn't go to him. I do have the reason why he wouldn't, numbers which shock me as well: Jacque Jones vs. Shouse: 4/10, 1 2B, 2 HR, .400/.400/1.100 Jones was 0/4 with a walk against Linebrink before tonight. The fact that Jones has 3 extra base hits against him and 2 home runs suggests that Jones has an easier time against Shouse than just about any other left-hander (which was not evidenced by his at-bat later in the game). I still don't necessarily agree with the call, but I can at least understand that it was a tough decision on Yost's part instead of the slam dunk that I thought it was during the game.

Murton should still be left as well.

I'd go ahead and pinch-hit Monroe here against Shouse. It's the bottom of the 8th now with a 2 run lead-no need to worry about burning Fontenot, just try to tack on as much as possible.

Single to LF scored Pie from 2nd base.

Which is exactly why he shouldn't be hitting leadoff when he returns. He should be put in the 5-hole and left there. There's absolutely no reason for him to be hitting leadoff, especially if he's not going to be stealing any bases for us down the stretch. I remember how slowly Aram "ran" in 2005 when the coaches told him to be cautious. He pretty much jogged around the bases. I don't know if Soriano will be that slow but I'm sure he will be slow. There's no way Lou will let him run at anything near full speed. I'm not sure Lou will have much of a choice in the matter. Soriano doesn't seem like a player who will take it safe for pretty long. He's going to be testing the limits of what his body can take within a few days. He might not be attempting to steal bags, but I bet he'll still be turning on the jets around the bases.

Pignatiello was the player I would have sent down, but I'm still surprised the Cubs did it and went down to 11 pitchers for the time being (even it is only for a few days). Good work Cubs.

why? Not sure if this is a serious question or not. Generally, it has to do with who has the last opportunity to win the game. If you play it safe at home and get a tie, you guarantee yourself another opportunity to bat. And this is generally how Lou has played it this season, or at least it seems to be the case. I disagree. Lou always seems to be playing for the win. That's why the criticisms of him never having any players left on the bench for extra innings pop up. He puts his players in the best position to win in 9 even at the expense of having problems in extra innings because as he has said repeatedly, he hates extra innings and will do anything possible to avoid it.

Naturally it depends on what kind of organization or investor group takes over but in all probability whether or not the Cubs make the playoffs this year depends on the players on the field and coaches in the dugout. Obviously Hendry has provided the talent pool to compete as they are leading the division with 33 games remaining. Now the question really is does Hendry have a long term future with the club? My guess is that yes as does Piniella and staff through at least 2008 depending on the performance. The real culprit was not Hendry it was MacPhail who handcuffed the Cubs payroll so MacPhail could make the case that he is Commissioner material, pandering to the small and mid market clubs (KC, Mil, Minn, Pitt, TB, FL, Oak, Was, and mid-market clubs; SD, AZ, Clev, Cinc, StL, Den, SF's, Balt, Tex, Seattle, Tor, Det) who actually own the majority votes against the 10 biggees: NYY, BSOX, NYM, LAD, LAA, Cubs, CSox, Phil, Atl, & Hou It is about payroll and MacPhail put the Cubs in the mid-market payroll category and not the big market category....($125-135M) which would have given the Cubs a real RF'er, all star catcher or starting pitcher and another bench performer), but he kept the Cubs at $90-100M....That is your culprit. What a bunch of bs. How many teams have a 125-135 million dollar payroll, outside of the Yankees and Red Sox? Hendry has been given plenty of money to work with since 2003, and hes done nothing with it. The Cubs since Hendry has been here have been in the top 5 in payroll more often than not. To say Hendry has worked with a mid market payroll is a joke. That's actually not true. The Cubs have been in the top half every year, but not top 5. 2003: 12th in payroll 2004: 6th in payroll 2005: 9th in payroll 2006: 7th in payroll 2007: 8th in payroll So we have been a top 10 team in payroll most years, but never top 5. The Cubs still easily have had enough money to really not put much value on complaining that the funds simply weren't there, but top 5 is overstating it. Also, this is for the entire ML's right? Where have the Cubs been in regards to the National League? Im pretty sure they have been near the top in the NL since Hendry has been here, and thats has equaled 1 playoff team. You are correct on that. On average, AL teams have spent more than NL teams. I'm going to post the Cubs ranking in the NL, the amount of money they spent, and the amount of money spent by the 8th NL team (right around average) 2003: 7th in NL. Cubs-86.58 million, 8th place-79.95 million 2004: 3rd, Cubs-91.1 million, 8th-74.67 million 2005: 6th, Cubs-87.03 million, 8th-83.04 2006: 3rd, Cubs-94.42 million, 8th-88.27 2007: 3rd, Cubs-99.67 million, 8th-87.29 million From looking over the numbers, the Mets typically are the leaders in the NL in payroll. After that, the Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Phillies, Astros, and Braves are all typically pretty close to each other. The Cubs probably have been 5th or 6th best in performance in the Hendry era of those teams that are close to each other in payroll, which is not good out of 7 teams. Those are the 8 teams who spend money in the NL year in and year out, and then there's a big dropoff to teams like the Padres, Brewers, Reds, Rockies, and Diamondbacks.