CubColtPacer
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Everything posted by CubColtPacer
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I think he's done a lot better lately, but gave a lot of vets a lot of playing time when they were playing really bad, and let the young guys rot on the bench. Murton, Pie, and Soto didn't get any significant playing time until just recently, and Pie still hasn't. Jacque, Floyd, Izturis, Koyie, Trachsel, Miller, and Monroe have all gotten far too much PT. Lou has corrected many of his mistakes though...that's where he beats out someone like Dusty, who just rides his mistakes into the ground. I know that some of that has to do with Hendry handing him these players, and that he's had to make do. I recognize that, and I do give Lou credit for what he's done with this team. But he's had his fair share of mistakes this year. Waiting till now to unleash Soto is one of them. I don't care what other managers would do. They'd be wrong too. Well the last sentence just means that you choose to look at it with no perspective at all. Some of your playing time gripes are just ridiculous. Monroe has gotten 46 plate appearances in the 30 games since being acquired. Murton didn't get any significant time until recently? Really? Jacque disappeared in the first half when he stunk. Lou went back to him after Felix struggled in June and Jacque got hot. He cooled down but he still has an .800 OPS in the second half and no one else could contribute that this year in CF. Wade Miller had a total of 3 starts. Izturis only got 50 PA's in the 24 April games. In May his production wasn't much off of what Theriot has done (.350 OBP). Following that in his last 44 games on the roster he got 69 AB's. On the contrary Pie got 44 PA's in his first 12 games here. He had 100 PA's in June. That's not significant playing time? That's much more than the guys who you claim got too much time and it was 4th most on the team in June. You're always going to have non-productive players getting time, especially when your roster consists of what we had at C, SS and the outfield. Guys have to fail before they get their time taken away. Then in most cases, when someone produced he kept them in the lineup. The point of my last sentence is simply this. If someone does something badly, I'm not going to be giddy with someone that does it less badly. Maybe you are. That's fine. I'm not. Look I'm not trying to bash Lou. I think he's done a reasonably good job with this team this year. But I do have gripes with some of his personnel decisions this year. You were obviously fine with Floyd and Jones getting playing time when they were struggling, and Murton sitting on the bench getting periodic playing time. I wasn't. And yes, Murton hasn't gotten regular playing time until this past month. Before that it was highly erratic. I agree, Miller was probably a bad choice for me to point out, and Izturis did go away, so I'm willing to concede those points. Pie had 87 PA's in June. Jones and Pagan combined for 91 PA's in June. So Pie got less than half the total PT as Jones and Pagan. So Lou didn't exactly let him get steady playing time. Instead he broke it up into a couple games on then a couple games off. He had no rhythm. Jacque was flat out terrible in June. And Pagan is not someone in the Cubs future. It just didn't make a lot of long term sense. I agree, that Lou is a lot better at letting players earn their spots, but he was slow to pull the trigger in some instances in this season, and I happen to think they were mistakes and cost the Cubs. (FYI, I'm not complaining about what Jacque has done in the second half. But the Cubs were about to trade him away, so they thought he was toast too. So it's not like it was amazing foresight on Lou's part to let him stick it out.) I agree with some of your point, but this isn't exactly correct. Pie didn't have a couple games on and then a couple games off. When he played, he tended to play in bunches. He came up on June 3rd and started 9 games in a row, then sat one game, then started 10 more games in a row. After that, he only had 2 starts before he was sent down again. So Pie's time might have been limited overall, but he didn't get inconsistent time. Instead, he played a lot, got benched, then got sent down. This also follows the pattern of the first time he was up where he started 9 out of 12 games, then got benched and didn't start again before he got sent down. As far as your first sentence, how else are we supposed to grade managers instead of on how other managers would do? I mean, we could say you shouldn't get giddy about a team that wins 95 games just because every other team in the league wins less. That is the same thing with managers-Lou has done more right than wrong, and is a better manager than most. You have to evaluate him by what everyone else does, because if you evaluate him on a criterion standard everybody falls short.
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Choi went home to Korea after not making the team for Tampa in ST. He plays for the Kia Tigers there.
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I wouldn't call it hurting the Cubs. I would call the help to the Brewers in the season and the hurting of the Padres in the playoffs about equal as far as the Cubs are concerned.
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Question for someone less lazy than me... (Fred??)
CubColtPacer replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Oh, I'm sure there's almost nothing to it (there might be a minimal effect of Soriano being more comfortable, but it's not large at all). I'm not saying that having Pie on the roster for all of 2008 will make Soriano have a monster year. At the same time, Soriano is fascinating because of how many times he can be the exception to things. Consider the facts talked about on this board: hitting with nobody on and hitting with RISP should equal about to about the same production over time. Soriano is 99 points better over his career with nobody on than with RISP, which is a huge difference for how long he has been playing. batting in a certain spot in the lineup doesn't affect production. Soriano is 66 points better in the 1 spot than any other spot with at least 100 at-bats (he's had at least 100 in the 1, the 3, the 5, the 8, and the 9). hitting production is not affected by what position you are playing. Soriano has a career .908 OPS as a LF while having only an .820 OPS as a second baseman. prime is between 27 and 29. soriano has now his 2 best overall OPS seasons at 30 and 31. production is not affected by outside influences (such as who else is on the roster). Soriano's production with Pie on the roster has to be at least 300 points better than when Pie is not on the roster. Soriano's career just doesn't quite make sense. He is one of those different kind of players that cannot quite be explained. Not only are certain things about him anomalies, I believe his entire career is an anomaly. -
Question for someone less lazy than me... (Fred??)
CubColtPacer replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Also another interesting note with Soriano is that the Pie being on the roster helping Soriano continues to hold true. Soriano struggled the first two months except for the couple weeks that Pie was up. When Pie came back up on the 3rd of June, Soriano went on a tear. Pie was sent back down in early July, and Soriano had a horrid July and August. Since he came back in late August though, Soriano has once again been hot with Pie on the roster. I'm not saying it means anything per se, but it is interesting to note. -
Catching up? I know I'm biased to a point, because I'm of a younger generation that never saw Santo play, but I'd say that the Ramirez we have right now at least matches up (I hate to say better/worse because it's tough to compare eras) with Santo in his prime. Whether Ram puts up an entire career to match up/exceed Santo's remains to be seen, but I'd say he's pretty well on his way with the way he has performed since 2004. OPS+ would disagree with you. Santo's best 5 seasons were 164, 161, 153, 146, and 138. Ramirez's best 5 so far are 137, 136, 132, 126, and 125. So Santo's peak was a lot better than Ramirez's at least according to that metric.
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How do the playoff look? Will the Cubs face the winner in the west or possibly the wild card team? It seems unavoidable at this point that the Cubs will face a West team. Arizona is the team we'd play right now since the Padres lead the wildcard. If the Phillies were to get the wild card, the Cubs would play the Mets, but it's highly unlikely. Either matchup doesn't inspire confidence. How is it highly unlikely that a Phillies team that is currently 0.5 games out of the WC will win it?
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How do the playoff look? Will the Cubs face the winner in the west or possibly the wild card team? It will either be the west winner or the east winner, depending on which team wins the WC.
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Yea, i would put in Hart over Ohman, Cedeno over Fontenot (backup SS and has been hot in limited appearances). I do NOT want Monroe on the roster, although I think I would put him on. I would put on Fuld. He and Pie can be the pinch-runners and defensive replacements. By adding Soto we get one more pinch-hitter, so I think we could add Fuld and still have enough people on the bench. Huh? Noway you have 2 guys on the roster for defensive purposes only. Fuld wont, and shouldnt be on the roster. Woops :oops: I fixed it in my original post. I figure that Fuld will not be on, and Monroe will. Although, we would have enough pinch hitters to survive. Ward, Soto, Murton, Cedeno/Fontenot. How many times do you need more than 4 pinch hitters in one game? If Soto isnt starting he wont be used as a pinch hitter it would leave us with no catchers if Kendall gets hurt. Cubs catchers have pinch-hit 17 times this year (Koyie Hill 5, Blanco 4, Barrett 4, Kendall 2, Bowen 1, Soto 1) and have been double-switched a few other times. Lou isn't nearly as concerned as some other managers about using his second catcher. He still doesn't usually use it as the first option, but he won't hesitate to use the catcher, especially if the catcher is a good hitter (look at Barret's 4 pinch-hit appearances in just over 2 months even though he didn't sit out all that many games). How many of those have came when we were carrying 3 catchers? It's hard to say without looking at each game log. Considering the Cubs have only carried 3 catchers for 24 days this year (2 days in July and 22 days in September) I'd say not many of them.
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Yea, i would put in Hart over Ohman, Cedeno over Fontenot (backup SS and has been hot in limited appearances). I do NOT want Monroe on the roster, although I think I would put him on. I would put on Fuld. He and Pie can be the pinch-runners and defensive replacements. By adding Soto we get one more pinch-hitter, so I think we could add Fuld and still have enough people on the bench. Huh? Noway you have 2 guys on the roster for defensive purposes only. Fuld wont, and shouldnt be on the roster. Woops :oops: I fixed it in my original post. I figure that Fuld will not be on, and Monroe will. Although, we would have enough pinch hitters to survive. Ward, Soto, Murton, Cedeno/Fontenot. How many times do you need more than 4 pinch hitters in one game? If Soto isnt starting he wont be used as a pinch hitter it would leave us with no catchers if Kendall gets hurt. Cubs catchers have pinch-hit 17 times this year (Koyie Hill 5, Blanco 4, Barrett 4, Kendall 2, Bowen 1, Soto 1) and have been double-switched a few other times. Lou isn't nearly as concerned as some other managers about using his second catcher. He still doesn't usually use it as the first option, but he won't hesitate to use the catcher, especially if the catcher is a good hitter (look at Barret's 4 pinch-hit appearances in just over 2 months even though he didn't sit out all that many games).
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Aramis doesn't have quite as good of numbers as some of the MVP candidates. He still would be considered except he doesn't have the plate appearances because he has missed so many games. For example, for the 3 guys you mentioned, Fielder and Wright have around 100 plate appearances more than Aramis. To win MVP and play in only around 130 games like Aramis is going to do, you have to have easily better numbers than anybody else. Aramis simply doesn't have that.
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WS Game 7, Bottom 9th - Cubs lead 2-1
CubColtPacer replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'd want Marmol and if Lou hadn't used him already, my guess is that it would be Marmol. That says nothing about the overall closer situation though. -
My brother told me that a win against a D1AA team doesn't count towards the necessary amount of wins (6) that you need to qualify for a bowl. I don't believe him, but is he right? It used to not count, but now you can have 1 win over a I-AA count towards your win total.
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Performance with RISP (Discussion from Game Thread)
CubColtPacer replied to Jazz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'll just provide some stats in this argument with little conclusion. Here are the Cub veterans and their stats in different situations. I am only including players who have had at least 3000 at-bats to try to get a good sample, and these are all career numbers: Cliff Floyd Nobody on .268/.336/.479 Runners on .291/.383/.491 RISP .289/.395/.510 Jacque Jones Nobody on .271/.313/.442 Runners on .291/.348/.470 RISP .289/.354/.487 Alfonso Soriano Nobody on .290/.330/.535 Runners on .267/.320/.478 RISP .250/.317/.445 Jason Kendall Nobody on .291/.359/.383 Runners on .308/.398/.411 RISP .290/.398/.374 Aramis Ramirez Nobody on .276/.321/.487 Runners on .292/.353/.516 RISP .294/.366/.531 Derrek Lee Nobody on .282/.357/.512 Runners on .278/.379/.482 RISP .279/.393/.488 6 players total. difference between bases empty and runners on is: 5 people with a 50-100 point difference between the two OPS's, and 1 person with less than a 50 point difference. difference between bases empty and RISP is: 1 person with over a 100 point difference, 3 people between 50 and 100 points difference, 2 people with less than 50 points difference. -
Brewers fans (some of them, anyways)
CubColtPacer replied to XZero771679666304's topic in General Baseball Talk
mark derosa should be there too. .297/.376/.423 he had a career year at 31, and is now doing even better at 32. I wouldn't call this year better than last year. His OBP is up 19 points, but his slugging is down 33 points. It's pretty close to a wash with maybe a tiny edge towards last year. I definitely agree that some regression was expected though, so he should be on the list. I disagree with Hill on that list (because most people had high expectations for him), and Theriot (because he hasn't been that good). Other then that, I'd agree with it. -
How bad of a team is Louisville this year? 3 weeks in a row: Give up 42 to MTSU lose to Kentucky Now they are down 21-7 to an awful Syracuse team at halftime at home. I fully expect they'll come back and win the game, but I'm not sure Louisville is a top 25 team this year.
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I don't see why not. He got that this year. Clemens is doing the exact same thing and he got 20+. Bonds got that this year, but only after fishing around for offers from all the other clubs including showing up at the winter meetings and finding that nobody else would take him. Now, his good year this year might change that for somebody.
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In addition to his comments about Soto, Lou had this to say about Hart: This could be an interesting situation for the offseason if Hart earns a spot on the team. The first question would be if Hart would be a starter or a relief pitcher. Here are the Cubs pitchers currently locked up for next year: Starter: Z, Lilly, Hill, Marquis Relief: Dempster, Marmol, Wuertz, Howry, Eyre, Possible starting options: Marshall, Gallagher, Hart Possible Relief options: Wood (if he's re-signed), Ohman, Hart Now the question is, does Hart mean the end of Marshall or Wood on the Cubs? Or does Hart simply become the 12th pitcher next year and Ohman is traded? Or does somebody else entirely get traded? It does mean that the Cubs don't need to go into the market for pitching whatsoever this year. They have an extra pitcher to trade even if you send Gallagher to AAA.
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Kendall or Soto would pinch-hit anyway. Lou likes to use a lot of his players, and after the 6th inning or so isn't worried as much about injuries. Remember all those times earlier in the year when Lou ran out of players? He has pinch-hit with the backup catcher a decent amount this year. Of course, I think you'll see Monroe back in the starting lineup today, but I wouldn't be shocked if Lou pulled him again as soon as the Pirates go to their bullpen.
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Lou on Dempster and the closers situation before Friday's game: That is definitely one area where Lou understands the situation better than most managers. http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070921&content_id=2221866&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc
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The Cubs are 5-1 with Soto in September. They lost 6-1 to the Pirates on the 7th of September.
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what are we doing with Blanco and his atrocious $2.8M (essentially $3.1M once you include the buyout) contract? I don't know, but do you have a healthy veteran player who you simply bench for all of September and then bring him back the next year? I would be surprised by that, but then again the other options are not all that likely either (cut-possible, trade-no, retire-probably most probable)

