CubColtPacer
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Walt Jocketty advising Wayne Krivsky...maybe those relievers will have had arm surgeries beforehand now. http://www.kypost.com/content/wcposhared/story.aspx?content_id=b9e8a273-ba49-4e5d-89cc-659cd4531978
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Cameron to the Brewers
CubColtPacer replied to andrew9991's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I wonder if Rich Hill's projections have to go up a little bit now that Cameron is inside the division. -
I doubt that the Cubs will start DeRosa at SS. More than likely, DeRosa goes into the supersub role. He would be a huge upgrade to the bench, while Roberts would be a small upgrade at 2B, but given the rumors, it will cost us Cedeno. With the emergence of Geovany Soto, the signing of Fukudome, and the apparent determination that Pie will be the CF, Theriot at SS is the Cubs' worst position. Therefore, it's the place the Cubs should seek to upgrade, internally or externally -- whatever is possible. Now, if getting Roberts means that DeRosa plays SS (again, I doubt it), that would be good. Otherwise, let Cedeno and Theriot compete or acquire a SS. One of Greene, Peralta, Wilson, or Lopez could be available. The key here is upgrading from last season's production at SS. But have the Cubs even mentioned that they might try DeRosa @ SS? I've been wondering why I keep hearing it every once in awhile on nsbb. The Cubs had ample opportunity to try Mark out @ SS last year, yet he played 1 game at the position. The Cubs didn't exactly have a second baseman last year either to plug in if DeRosa was there for most of the year either. The Cubs do value Theriot's defense at short over DeRosa's, we know that (otherwise they would have played DeRosa at SS and Theriot at 2nd). Do they hate DeRosa's defense enough to know if they would play Theriot there even when the other one would sit on the bench? I don't think anybody knows that, and what we do know is that Lou is willing to try almost anything if the starter is struggling. Lou was willing to play Ward in RF in small ballparks because he needed more offense. If Theriot is struggling and DeRosa is just sitting there on the bench, Lou might go to him.
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Apparently the Cubs need more OFers
CubColtPacer replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This is no more meaningful than when they tried Theriot as an OF last year..they like versatility. That's it. From the Cubs perspective, the more positions he knows, the more valuable of a utility player he is. -
Calm down. Rosenthal just said the Cubs might be looking for a center fielder, so he threw their name in. It bothers me that anytime there is what appears to be a purely speculative rumor, we read a barrage of posts saying that "The Cubs are so stupid" and "Hendry is a moron." The problem is that Hendry has made enough moves in the past that warrant those types of posts. If he had a history of selling high, buying low and making deals that 6 months down the road look great, people would give him the benefit of the doubt and figure he already has something lined up to improve elsewhere( #2 SP, SS etc). Currently, some think he makes moves on the spur of the moment or just to make a move. I just think he's inconsistent is his judgement of what the Cubs really need. Sometimes he fills a need with a great deal, sometimes he fills a need that doesn't exist. Agreed, but the more people say that the more people remember it wrong that Hendry was actually interested. We had a few people bring up his supposed interest in Steve Finley last offseason as a mark against Hendry, and that couldn't have been further from the truth (that Hendry was at all interested). There have been other times when writers just put the Cubs in a list of speculation like this rumor, and Hendry doesn't do it, but the next time speculation comes up about another player in 6 months at least one or two people will say "remember how Hendry was interested in Melky? he's an idiot". Another example-think of how many people still hold it against Hendry that he didn't trade Prior for Tejada and Bedard? We heard that several times here in the Prior discussions, when in actuality that deal was never even close to being on the table.
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As SSR has pointed out, his ERA has actually been right around league average for starting pitchers. It hasn't been awful. Plus, look at his home and away ERA splits from his time with the Cubs, and his time with the Phillies: Cubs: 99 Home: 4.20, Away: 3.99 00 Home: 3.71, Away: 5.15 01 Home: 3.39, Away: 4.24 02 Home: 3.09, Away: 4.31 Phillies 05 Home: 4.38, Away: 4.05 06 Home: 5.18, Away: 4.64 07 Home: 5.26, Away: 4.19 The last 3 years in Chicago, Lieber dominated at Wrigley. His road ERA was over a point over his his home ERA each season, which is a dramatic split. As you can see, his time with the Phillies has been hurt by their very hard ballpark to pitch in with home ERA's being worse than road ERA's every year. Take him out of Philly and put him in Wrigley again? His numbers most likely improve, not regress. At worst he'll likely be a league average starter once again, which is a better guarantee than you can say for Dempster. Now, knowing that Lieber has been a ground ball pitcher when he is going good, has his GB/FB ratio taken a hit in the last few years that would make his Philly #'s out of whack since the ball jumps out of there? I seem to recall that him keeping the ball down was the reason for his success with the Cubs. Actually no. He's never been that much of a ground ball pitcher since coming from the Pirates. 1999-1.33 2000-1.69 2001-1.34 2002-1.23 2004-1.43 2005-1.29 2006-1.23 2007-1.52 So as you can see, he's remained pretty consistent in ground ball percentage over the years with a couple outliers. And badnews, I'm not trying to point out his numbers from 99-02 as an indication that he could ever be that good again. I pointed it out to show that he thrived in Wrigley Field. If he came to the Cubs, I'd expect his home split to be better or at least equal to his road split next year. If he had pitched in Wrigley the last 3 seasons instead of Citizens Bank Park, his numbers would have likely been a lot better. His road split the last few seasons hasn't been bad at all..he'd still be a league average pitcher or better in a ballpark that doesn't favor offense so much.
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As SSR has pointed out, his ERA has actually been right around league average for starting pitchers. It hasn't been awful. Plus, look at his home and away ERA splits from his time with the Cubs, and his time with the Phillies: Cubs: 99 Home: 4.20, Away: 3.99 00 Home: 3.71, Away: 5.15 01 Home: 3.39, Away: 4.24 02 Home: 3.09, Away: 4.31 Phillies 05 Home: 4.38, Away: 4.05 06 Home: 5.18, Away: 4.64 07 Home: 5.26, Away: 4.19 The last 3 years in Chicago, Lieber dominated at Wrigley. His road ERA was over a point over his his home ERA each season, which is a dramatic split. As you can see, his time with the Phillies has been hurt by their very hard ballpark to pitch in with home ERA's being worse than road ERA's every year. Take him out of Philly and put him in Wrigley again? His numbers most likely improve, not regress. At worst he'll likely be a league average starter once again, which is a better guarantee than you can say for Dempster.
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...so that means, he's still unsigned? Quick somebody call JH! For what reason? He plays one of the easiest positions on the baseball field and he cannot hit. His only decent attribute, his speed, has been getting worse and worse as he gets older. Plus, he's coming off an injury riddled season. His career might be over, if some team doesn't save him with a minor league deal where he can spend most of his remaining career in AAA.
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True, but we would have had an older, much less productive player that would have been signed for the next 4 years at over 6 million per year. I'd rather hope to replace the talent and get the player that's far more likely to improve the team. Do we know that he wouldn't have taken a 2 year $15M deal to come here? Do we know for sure? No, I guess not. I just don't think that a person who signs a 4 year 25 million dollar team for the team who traded for him and has a big hole at second base would willingly sign a 2 year 15 million dollar deal for a different team who has a replacement lined up if Castillo were to slump badly. Assuming it would have taken 4 years and 25 million is probably being generous. He likely would have required more to come to Chicago.
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Yes, it's one day closer to being done or not being done. In other words, most of what was published or broadcast yesterday was nonsense. The Cubs would still like Roberts. They are not trading Hill, Pie or Colvin for him. As I said yesterday, they're willing to give up some combination of Gallagher-Marshall-Cedeno for him, and that's it. The names of Hill, Marmol, Pie and Colvin are what the Orioles would be asking for Bedard, and the Cubs aren't in on any Bedard deal. Thanks, Bruce. Off topic, but have you heard anything about Hendry acquiring another starter or is he content with the rotation as is? Somebody asked him yesterday if Henry was looking at anybody else to acquire at the moment, and Bruce replied that they liked Lieber.
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If teams continue to run on him, putting him in LF where you get the most chances by far to throw people out at the plate (and at 2nd base) might actually be worth it. I agree though that the athletic issue won't be much of an issue anymore when Pie and Fukudome are the other two outfielders. Soriano will be slotted correctly then, with his bad outfield instincts but his great arm.
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6.3 million in 08, 8 million in 09, free agent after 09. A pretty reasonable deal to be trading for. It's not too long to worry too much about him declining, he can't become a free agent after this year, and the money is about right (actually cheap for the current market) for his production. Reasonable for the production, yes, but adding that contract nearly maxes out the payroll if it indeed falls in the anticipated $120-$125 million range. That means that we'd probably have to find a way to shed at least several million dollars if we want to add a decent pitcher afterwards. I'm wondering how many prospects we'll have to give up if we want to trade for a Burnett/Blanton-type pitcher and ask the other team to take salary back in return. Agreed, but I think that pushes the Cubs even more to Burnett than to Blanton. The A's are looking to rebuild, while the Blue Jays just want to get rid of Burnett. The Blue Jays are much more interested in major league talent coming back than the A's, and there is plenty of speculation that they may like DeRosa and Dempster, which would both fulfill most of the trade value needed for Burnett plus make it so the Cubs wouldn't have to add much salary in the deal. I'm not even sure the Cubs would go after one of those #2-#3 type starters though. They may just sign another #5 starter to replace the #5 starters they would lose in the Roberts trade, such as Lieber (Bruce did confirm they are interested in him). If they did that, it also wouldn't bump the payroll past the limit.
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The only person who has said this is somebody from Chicago, not from Baltimore. At the same time, I completely agree with you. I think Pie might still have a small possibility of going in another deal, but not this one. I also think the deal is done. There is too much craziness and misinformation coming out of both camps that if they were still negotiating doesn't come out quite this fast.
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I don't know if that's going to be true. On the old forum software, regular users only saw 15 posts per page. Premium users saw more (was it 20 or 25?). Now, everybody is going to see at least 25 per page, as that is the standard length for this version of the software. On the old regular forum, this thread would have been 151 pages long already.
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The Ward projection seems very low, although I understand why that is. There are some minor issues with many of the rest on the hitting side, but nothing too bad. The Pie and Patterson projections seem a lot better from what they were in 2007, especially their PECOTA projections from 07. I have a hard time seeing the pitching regress that badly, but our pitching was considered to be horrible by the projections last year as well. Obviously it's an average so playing time for almost every starter on the list is down from where it likely will be for the season.

