ah okay, missed that part when reading the original premise. so he's an auto out aside from the home run. that makes my decision easy. HOLY CRAP, home run guy is winning 2-to-1?!?!? Yeah, depends on the week for me. Some weeks I like the idea of the OBP guy, other weeks the homerun guy gets the nod. I am slightly surprised that the homerun guy is running away with the thing though. But I think the fact that the guy will have an OPS of 1.250 over the guy with a 1.000 OPS is a pretty good point. except that (1) a point of OBP is significantly more important than a point of SLG, and (2) it's not fair to the guy who gets on base every time, because he doesn't swing the bat once to actually have a SLG%. If you change your assumption and say that the guy gets on base by hitting a single every at bat, it's the same outcome (he's on first base after his turn at bat) but now his OPS is 2.000. You are right that walking is slightly underrated in OPS and singling is overrated in OPS. The differences between how they move runners up is important, but not important enough for their huge difference in slugging. (I actually think triples are also overrated in slugging because they are usually give you the same effects as a double does other than the obvious of the batter standing on 3rd, and a home run is underrated in slugging because the guaranteed run is so important). At the same time, I feel like my point about balanced scoring is a big factor that isn't being factored in. If you asked a great pitcher that if you knew absolutely for certain that the batter was going to get a home run sometime in the game, would you walk the player every time? Most great pitchers IMO would rather walk the person every time because they can work around that and strand him. I know in a small way that was the Braves pitchers philosophy for years to not let the big guys hurt you and to get everybody else out. I think the biggest effect of choosing the OBP player is that the team would score more runs against bad pitchers than the team with the home run guy, and less runs against good pitchers than the team with the home run guy. Considering a good team usually already scores enough runs to win against bad pitchers most of the time, I'd rather take the advantage against the best pitchers in the league. BTW, if you just told me that the homerun guy would have 162 HR's and get outs in every other at-bat, I'd take the OBP guy. I would assume then that the homerun guy piles up many of his homeruns against the bad pitchers of the world. It's the specific fact that he's guaranteed to do it every game that puts homerun guy over the top for me.