CubColtPacer

I'm probably scoreboard watching the Marlins and Brewers most right now. Only because they are the teams that could possibly keep the Cubs from a playoff spot. At the same time, I'm not exactly concerned with them right now. I'm just glad to see that the Cubs have opened a 7.5 game lead on that spot, and I hope we can widen that out a little farther. I have a hard time seeing 2 of the 3 teams of the Cardinals, Marlins, and Brewers all getting to 90 wins, so if the Cubs can get there, that should be enough. Of course, I think it's also certainly possible that the Cubs win the division going away and have 95+ wins. It is nice though that the Cubs have a little cushion, and the fact that at least 2 teams have to play well enough to catch the Cubs, not just one.

Eh, don't sweat it Ned Yost had his closer throw 3 innings tonight. He will end up costing the Brewers any shot at making a run before it is all said and done. 2 and 1/3 actually, and he only threw 23 pitches. I do agree with you about Yost though. It will be hard for them to play as well as they'll need to over the next half of the season with him calling the shots.

It was ridiculous. Even when he mishits it badly and is very upset at himself the ball still is almost like a magnet that is attracted to the hole. I was rolling my eyes and chuckling and saying that he's already the best player in the world and if he gets that kind of luck to go along with it, it will be hard for everyone else.

Brewers and Twins are trading mistakes right now. Brewers blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th and got down 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th, but Russell Branyan hit a 2 out, pinch-hit HR to tie the game up.

People keep saying this and it's not really true, I can't remember the last time I saw people freaking out because Lou wasn't using Marmol. People do it in the game thread quite a bit, but I haven't seen it outside of there so it's probably just a quick emotional reaction wanting to win that game.

It's a gamble either way. If you leave Marquis in, you will either use neither Marmol or Wood, or both of them. If Marquis gives up a hit to the 9 hitter, you likely end up using both. If he induces a double play, you don't really need to use either. When you put Marmol in, you're using him, but you're giving a much better chance that you won't use Wood. I can certainly understand the sentiment of wanting to give Marquis a chance to work out of his jam. It just depends on if you want to take the risk of having both pitch in order to potentially keep either one from pitching.

Litsch is another guy with a superb walk rate. In fact, he has only walked 5 in his last 57 1/3 innings. :shock: He is a guy that is hittable though, and will give up the long ball. His ERA is probably a little lower than it should be, and is being held up because he has stranded a crazy 83 percent of baserunners so far this year. He's a ground ball pitcher, but not an extreme one. Will strike out a few, but is a relatively low strikeout pitcher. From looking over his stats, he reminds me a lot of Jason Marquis. The only big difference statistically is that Litsch has great control. He also tends to not get into deep counts. Teams are only averaging 3.61 P/PA against him. In the games where he has had high pitch counts are typically the games where the other team gets a lot of baserunners on because of his ability to be hit. So like Marquis, Litsch is the type of pitcher who you could jump on for a bunch early, you could get baserunners on every inning but can never seem to score them, or you could just get a lot of weak contact against. He's always going to be on the precipice because you never know when the big hit is going to come with runners on, or when he's going to be stranding people all day.

Howry since April(including today): 3.13 ERA 20 Ks, 3 BB You sure thats right SSR? He had a 1.76 ERA in May, and so far in June he has a 6.75, that would be a 4.26 ERA wouldnt it? Howry was terrible in April, great in May, and so far terrible in June. I dont know what his deal is hes historically a slow starter, and right now he has no business in a close game, but that doesnt mean he shouldnt be used at all. Games like today are when he should be used for right now until he starts getting batters out consistently. Right now Eyre and Marmol should be the setup guys. It's not a straight average because Howry pitched 15 1/3 innings in May, and only 5 innings so far in June. I'm actually calculating a 3.10 ERA for him since the end of April.

The answer to your first question is every one of them. The answer to your second is none of them. Scott Shields was the closest, and an interesting comparison to Marmol. In 2003, when he was 27, he started 13 games and relieved in 35. Then in 2004 they made him a reliever full-time at the age of 28, and he threw 105 1/3 IP out of the pen. Then he threw 91 2/3 more the next year. I'm not advocating Marmol to be thrown 100 innings. His usage number is slowly starting to drop though. Even after today, it was at 98.6 for the season. I'd love to get that to 90-92 by the end of the year, and to do that, Lou doesn't have to completely stop using him. He just has to continue to pick his spots like he has done lately with him, and that number will continue to go down. I believe that spacing between outings is more important than overall IP anyway, especially for a former starter like Marmol who is used to throwing a lot of innings. The big thing is they need to make sure that he doesn't throw too many stretches where he's coming out again after throwing a lot of pitches the previous 3-4 days. Those are the times where he's at the highest risk of injury. Today he was fresh, and that wasn't really a concern. Edit: Sorry, just saw your edit. Took some time for me to compose my thoughts and try to word it correctly.

Totally unrelated For someone who just called out Howry, you should see the relation No there is no relation at all. Its a differet point in the game. I wasnt clamoring for Howry last inning. But if you think just because Howry gave up a triple there, then he would have if he was brought in in the 8th, then I dont know what to tell you. Quit taking it so literal. Nobody saying he would have given up a triple. They are saying he was a lot more likely to give up a hit compared to Marmol. Like I said you had a 6 run lead, even if they give up a grand slam you still have a 2 run lead with nobody on. Ive backed off my statement regarding Marmol a little since Ive learned he had only thrown 2 innings. However, to say the triple Howry gave up is why Marmol was brought in is unrelated, and irrelevant. I think the Cubs should put Marmol in a glass case in the dugout and admire him for the rest of year while guys like Leiber, Howry and others blow baseball games. Not saying he should pitch every day, but my God, this is not Dusty-like abuse. No you are right this is goes beyond Dustylike abuse. Marmol was on pace to pitch 100 innings out of the bullpen as of like a week or 2 ago. Thats un chartered territory for about any reliever EVER That's not really true. The top usage relievers are around 95 about every year, and there have been 4 different relievers in the last 5 years to go over 100 innings. And that's just counting their relieving innings..the guys who start 2-3 games a year and are in the bullpen the rest of the time probably even more regularly go over 100 innings, but just don't show up in the stats that way.

Interesting facts: Marmol's last 7 appearances have had him come into the game in the middle of an inning with runners on, and only twice has Lou pitched him to more than 1 batter the next inning (and one of those was the 3 run homer game that was the start and probably likely impetus for this stretch). Marmol's turned into the fireman instead of the 8th inning guy for the most part now, and I applaud that change. I almost cannot believe that if you asked me would I take Marquis's season so far over the next 3 1/2 months would I take it, and I would very quickly say yes. Marquis is playing the part of an average starter very well so far. Avoid the disaster starts, spray in a couple gems, and have the rest of the starts be questionable. His ERA+ moved back over the 100 mark today. Nice to see Lee have a very good game today. His bat will be crucial these next 2 weeks as the Cubs experiment to find the best combination at 2B/LF. Overall, just a very nice game. We rested some starters and got a win. Anytime you can do that, you're killing two birds with one stone.

Not in the past week and a half though. Marmol has started being pulled in the middle of innings even while being effective, or only being allowed to face one batter. Lou has clearly decided that he needs to save his arm a little more than he has been. If you look at the situations, there has been a huge change in Marmol's usage patters recently.

Why not let Marquis or Lieber face the 9th hitter? You have a 6 run lead with 6 outs to go, no reason to throw your best reliever. I might have let Marquis throw to the 9th place hitter. No way I bring Lieber in with the bases loaded and 2 out of the next 3 hitters being left-handers. Anyway, if you do go to 1 of those 2 pitchers, and he gives up a base hit to the 9 hitter, now you are in a situation where you likely will have to use both Marmol and Wood today. By cutting that off at the pass, now you just hopefully use just 1 of them for 1 inning.

Agreed, and yes, in the 5 days previous to this game, he has only thrown 1 inning. Get out of the jam here with the top of the Blue Jays order up, then turn the game over to Lieber in the 9th please.

I hope Kosuke picks it up in the 2 spot soon, or they might not feel comfortable putting him there during these 6 weeks. He's 0-11 with a walk in the 2 spot now and has bad numbers outside the #5 spot this season. If it continues for much longer, I think Lou might refuse to put him anywhere but 5, especially if Kosuke says anything to him.

Knowing the way the Blue Jays work Halladay, theres no way he doesn't go at least 120 pitches Actually, that isn't necessarily true. Halladay's highest pitch count this season is 116. Last year he had 3-4 games where he was above 120. He's just ridiculously efficient with his pitches most of the time. For once, the Cubs are the team to make the efficient pitcher work.

Theriot needs to sit down once a week or so to keep him fresh. This is probably one of the best pitchers to sit him against.

BTW, Halladay pitches deeper into ballgames more than any pitcher I've seen in quite a while. He's had 3 games this year where he went 9. 1 game where he went 8 and 2/3. 3 more where he went 8. And 3 more where he went at least 7. He's averaging over 7 2/3 innings per start. So if the Cubs are going to win, they pretty much are going to have to beat Halladay. And they're not likely to do it by walking much because Halladay does a great job of throwing strikes. He has walked 12 in over 102 innings this year.

Reed But then who plays 1B if we get to the bottom of 9? DeRosa. And they'll put Johnson and Cedeno in the outfield in some configuration. Lou's playing the numbers with all the left-handers. The reason he did it this way was limited batter pitcher data: Blanco against Downs: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB's, .500/.625/1.175 And the reason we saved Johnson for the 9th: Johnson against Ryan: 3/4 Don't put much value in those numbers, but with 3 left-handers to pinch-hit for it made sense to try to put the players in the order to at least give you the best spot overall, and that was likely Blanco last inning, and when there became 2 outs and only a guy on 1st I like that they ended up saving Johnson until the 9th.

I would probably pull him now. The 3 hitters up next inning have gotten on base 4 times out of 6 against Sean, and he's at 97 pitches. No need for him to go a long outing tonight against hitters he's struggled against with a rested bullpen, especially when you only really want him to throw 15 more pitches at the most.

81 through 4.

He could go 7 if the Cubs really start swinging early, but I think 6 is probably more of a reasonable estimate for him. If the Cubs could get a couple baserunners, they could probably chase him in the 6th.

It's one of those rulings that is technically correct, but most of the time it happens the umpire won't call it. It's evolved into one of those advantage calls..if the umpire felt that Quade gave him an advantage, he would have called him out.

Wuertz has never exactly had great control, but he has had a lot of success at the big league level. Considering his age, it's reasonable to think he can still be an effective reliever. The odd thing is that he pitched in five out of six days from 5/29 through 6/3, including four games in a row. He hasn't pitched since 6/3. There's really no reason for Piniella to not use him unless Wuertz is hurt. And if he's hurt bad enough to not pitch for 10 days, put him on the DL. If they continue to use Marmol as frequently as they have, there's a good chance he'll wear down and possibly be less effective later in the year. They need to start relying on others in the pen. Not to mention Wood, who slowly is catching Marmol. It's pretty obvious that Lou is trying to use Marmol for less time though, which is why 4 out of his last 5 innings he has pitched to 2 batters or less. In the previous 2 months before this stretch, he had exactly 1 outing of less than an inning. Hopefully they can work Wuertz back in to further that process. I still doubt that any reliever gets more than 92 innings in the regular season, but I'd like to push that down even a little further.

Agreed. That's the move I couldn't understand. 2 outs and nobody on is not a good time to be burning a player. I would have left Z in against Hudson. As soon as Hudson was lifted for the relief pitcher, I would have gone to Hoffpauir, but I don't mind that he left Z in. He has been hot for quite a while (remember even with his gaudy statistics now, he started the season quite badly with the bat before becoming red-hot) and I think Lou was trying to get another inning out of him if he could be effective during that inning.