fromthestretch

O'Malley shouldn't even be included in this group, in my opinion. Rapada probably should be. I believe either Marmol or Mateo will be dealt, and with Rapada ready, either Ohman or Eyre will probably be dealt, as well.

Here the probelm: with this attitude, the Cubs will sign nobody. Every player in the FA market that is tier 1 or tier 2 will have multiple suitors to pay the market value. All of them. The tier 2 class of FAs in pitching is generally regarded as Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, and Randy Wolf. Each one of these guys witll get 3 or 4 years and 20-40 million. Tier 2 FAs in reality translates to average talent. League average pitching talent dictates this kind of money. Meche is average, regardless of people's claims around here that he is below average. His numbers point to league average, with two down years in his three-year splits. I just don't understand why people on this board refuse to accept the FA market for what it is. If the Cubs don't 'jump at the chance' on FAs at the market value, the 2007 roster is going to be filled with AAA players. To get over this hump people must accept that pitchers with career ERA around 4.50, between the ages of 28-32, are going to make minimum 7 million a year, and quite possibly a lot more, and they are going to get that rate for minimum 3 years. Perhaps you missed it, so I bolded it for you above. With limited major league-ready talent coming from the farm system, the Cubs are going to have to overspend in certain areas. The point is that you need to pick and choose where you are going to overspend. I'd rather overspend on the starting pitcher than on a guy that will be on the bench and another guy that should be.

The only problem is none of the stud starters want to come here (Zito, Schmidt) and then there's a huge drop off in talent. So either you have to overpay for a mediocre starter (like Meche, Padilla, Lilly), give the 3 remaining rotation spots to Miller, Prior and the kids (Marmol, Marshall, Guzman), or trade for a starter or two. None of these options are good. If you can trade for 2 good starters without giving up too much talent, I believe that's the way to go. If we do have to sign one of the mediocre starters, my choice would be Meche. If the Cubs have to overpay to get a starter, I understand that. But knowing that, they shouldn't have overpaid for a utility guy and backup catcher. However, Meche would not be my choice due to control issues and a tendency to give up homers. Age is certainly on his side, but he put up crappy numbers while pitching roughly half his games in a pitcher's park. I'm not exactly a fan of Lilly either, but I'd prefer him over Meche. I think Wolf is someone to look at. I also like Padilla better than Meche, but his salary demands seem a little steep. However, if Meche truly is going to get over $8 mil per season, then Padilla probably will get more.

The fact that other teams are willing to offer 3+ years and a crapload of money for a mediocre pitcher/player doesn't mean the Cubs should jump at the chance to do the same. If you're going to overpay, do it for someone that will make an impact. If you have to overpay for a #4 starter, then save money by NOT overpaying for a backup catcher and a utility guy.

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason. Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better. 1 year, $5m, great. 2/12, okay 3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely. Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it. Goony, do you think any average talent under-30 pitcher in this market is going to get less than 3 years? I just don't see the 1-2 year approach as even an option, for any team. If you're average and under 30, you're looking at 3/21 to start negotiations. Then the Cubs should stay away. Meche isn't worth anywhere near that kind of money.

Primarily 5th and 6th in the order with a little time batting 2nd.

To be honest, I don't see how signing a bunch of guys to cheap deals to fill out your minor league rosters is worse than paying a guy, who has been for the most part mediocre and is coming off of a career year at age 31, 13 million dollars. Especially Foppert. If he can stay healthy (very big if), he has some talent.

I'm not sure what's worse...the amount of money or the length of the contract. I don't mind DeRosa as a super-sub type of player. But over $4 mil per year? For 3 years? Just doesn't seem like a wise investment for a soon-to-be 32-year old that never had over 400 plate appearances or an OPS over .800 before 2006. $2.5 mil for two years would have been overpaying, but it would have been a lot more tolerable.

i agree. they do need at least one more starter and 2 would be ideal. i like westbrook and iwaga myself. lilly would be ok too but padilla is too expensive imo. dont know too much about meche. I really hate the idea of Gil Meche pitching for the Cubs. he was #3 in the AL in walks allowed last year. Sound like he fits in here perfectly The only thing you can hope for from Gil Meche is a Clement-like career turnaround in a Cubs uniform. I don't want to bank on that. His 1.44 career WHIP and tendency to give up the longball don't make me very optimistic.

There were numerous articles over the last few weeks predicting DeRosa would get a deal like this from whatever team he would sign for, so I don't think it's very accurate to think the Cubs were the only team interested, bidding against themselves. I don't recall any such articles, do you have a link to any of them? Just run a search on the internet. Here's the one I remember from earlier this week. I can't begin to recall the specific news paper web sites from the daily blogosphere bouncing. Olney earlier in the week The free portion of that blog doesn't say anything except that DeRosa is looking for a raise after a career year. A quick google news search didn't pull up anything regarding DeRosa having multiple teams interested, or anything approaching the deal he's going to get. DeRosa made $675,000 in 2006. $1.5 million would have been a raise. He isn't worth $4 mil per year.

i agree. they do need at least one more starter and 2 would be ideal. i like westbrook and iwaga myself. lilly would be ok too but padilla is too expensive imo. dont know too much about meche. I really hate the idea of Gil Meche pitching for the Cubs.

are there actual rumors out about this or is it our wishful thinking? It's wishful thinking. I don't know why Cleveland should want any part of Izturis. i think they do need a ss some say they're going to sign Belliard back Did Peralta get hit by a truck or something?

If this situation ends up with Izzy gone and TheRiot at short then I think it's a good move. If the middle infield is Izzy and DeRosa then I pissed, that would require a HUGE boost in production from the OF and I don't see that coming thus far. That would be awsome right there..both good with OBP...Get rid of Izzy.. maybe it's a prelude to sending izzy to cleveland with prospects for westbrook. Or maybe send Cedeno in the deal for Westbrook they need a 2B. Send them Novoa, Cedeno, and some minor leaguers. The Indians just got Barfield from the Padres in a deal last week. They don't need a second baseman.

I'm not so sure Drew would actually be blocking Pie though. Drew could easily be moved to RF to allow Pie to play CF, if Jones is moved.

Don't forget O'Malley. I really think this kid could be good. He needs another year or two to get seasoned. O'Malley was 26 this year. Most of his career in the minors was spent as a reliever, and his career numbers at AA and AAA aren't anything to write home about.

Depends on what the Padres would want in return. $10.5 mil per year over the next two is less than Drew will get. Both Drew and Giles offer flexibility as far as where they can play in the outfield. Both will give you at least a .370 OBP, with a possibility of surpassing .400 in that category. Drew will obviously give you more power, but a return to 20 homers isn't out of the question for Giles in a smaller park. Even if the power doesn't return, his OBP would be ideal at the top of the order.

A lot depends on his salary and length of contract, but Piazza could end up being a mild bargain. He could be useful for an AL team in need of a DH. If healthy, Guillen could end up being a bargain as well. When you consider that he's coming off a bad year with some injuries, is still around 30, and hasn't made more than $4 million in any season, he'd be a decent gamble for a team in need of a corner OF. Trachsel is certainly no bargain though. Wilson made less than Guillen, was more productive than Guillen, and has been more productive over his career. Actually, they both made $4 mil in 2006. Wilson was more productive, but didn't Guillen have some injuries? In 2006, Wilson was the better bargain, I'm not arguing that. I'm just saying that Guillen could be a bargain for some team in 2007. Chances are, he'll get $4 mil or less, and if healthy, a .280/.340/.480 line is possible.

A lot depends on his salary and length of contract, but Piazza could end up being a mild bargain. He could be useful for an AL team in need of a DH. If healthy, Guillen could end up being a bargain as well. When you consider that he's coming off a bad year with some injuries, is still around 30, and hasn't made more than $4 million in any season, he'd be a decent gamble for a team in need of a corner OF. Trachsel is certainly no bargain though.

If it's not going to be good defensively in either scenario, then go with the better offense. I'd certainly prefer Murton in LF, Soriano in CF, and Jones in RF over your scenario.

Which likely makes Scott Hairston available. But, I'm not really sure he's anymore than a utility player at this point. I think Scott Hairston will hit well. The question is, where can he play defensively. He's awful at second, and I don't know how well he plays the outfield.

He actually played SS for the first four years of his minor league career.

Well, there have already been rumors of their interest in Marcus Giles, but all that talk has been about acquiring him as a third baseman. Now, they could look to bring him in without switching him to a different position.

The Padres traded Josh Barfield to Cleveland for Kevin Kouzmanoff. http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20061108-1046-bn9padtrade.html Edited to add link.

I believe Tirico was practically stalking a woman that worked there. Much worse than a hug, yet he kept his job.

I really hope that Joe Oliver is not the starting catcher for the Cubs in 2007. :lol: