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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    But man, those books. Im taking 18 hours next summer and TAing a 3 hour course. ITs the books that kill me! especially those big thick math books. that and my BA and BP cost 100 or so a year by themselves. its funny, i came to this place because it was the only cubs place that had a place to discuss the draft. im sure im the only one who came here because of the drawing card that is the mlb draft.
  2. Mephistopheles
    I love this thread. I think I've posted more in this thread than I've posted outside of the Draft or Minor League boards before.
  3. Mephistopheles
    Daisuke's not a position player. Oops. Duh.
  4. Mephistopheles
    JD Drew. Maybe Diasuke.
  5. Mephistopheles
    Luxury Tax: 148 - 2007 155 - 2008 162 - 2009 170 - 2010 178 - 2011
  6. Mephistopheles
    Thats nice. Two things. First, needs are needs and needs determine value. Secondly, Soriano isn't the best FA position player.
  7. Mephistopheles
    I dunno I find the bat flip from Matt Lawton something else. Quite cute.
  8. Mephistopheles
    Phil Rizzuto has an MVP too. And is in the Hall of Fame. Does that make him good? No.
  9. Mephistopheles
    Who said Soriano is not a good player? I must have missed that. I agree. Of course Soriano is a huge upgrade, but it's something we could have done a different way for a cheaper price. So my reaction would be "Love having him, but I hate the money and know it could have been used much better so I hate the deal."
  10. Mephistopheles
    if i had unlimited funds id take on manny, play him at first. trade lee for rodriguez. put rodriguez at ss. sign durham, sign drew. sign soriano. sign matsuzaka. sign schmidt.
  11. Mephistopheles
    it wasn't a three year straight average I averaged three variables. 2005, 2006 and then their PECOTA projection of 2007 (which is going to be used in the new PECOTAs for regression purposes) i can do a weighted of the last two. weighting 2006 as 50%, 2005 as 25% and their 2007 projection as 25%. .272 Lugo .291 Soriano .311 Drew .226 Izturis (i threw out his 06 due to small sample size) .252 Pie we get: +34.4 Izturis ----> Lugo +33.2 Pie ----> Soriano +46.2 Pie ----> JD Drew for 122 games Quite a bit. They could still break up the 17 mil theyre giving up and give 10 or so to Lugo and then split the other 11 mil between two decent 2Bers and CFers and easily come out better. Well if they signed Lugo too, of course. But at that point what about DeRosa at 2B to Ray Durham? It's a cheaper upgrade. Using the same analysis as I used above +27.8 Mark DeRosa ----> Durham +36.0 Cubs 2006 2B ----> Durham Since Soriano + DeRosa costs about 21 mil, Durham wants 9 if i rememeber correctly. So doing that and we can still spend 12 million at CF. Say five million of that is on Dave Roberts (+22.6 runs). Roberts + Durham would be over fifty runs what we had last season and probably would cost 7 million dollars less to pump into our rotation, or taking on a contract in RF for Jacque Jones. The Cubs have so many holes, spending all your resources to plug one isn't efficient.
  12. Mephistopheles
    man almost 1,000 games and 4,000 plate appearances. it's a tough crowd tonight.
  13. Mephistopheles
    The EqA's .274 - Julio Lugo .286 - Alfonso Soriano .313 - JD Drew .226 - Cesar Izturis .255 - Felix Pie Since we don't know who will play where and how much. 480 outs for each spot in the lineup. + 36.0 Cesar Izturis -----> Julio Lugo + 26.2 Felix Pie -----> Alfonso Soriano + 39.7 Felix Pie -----> JD Drew (122 games) + Felix Pie (40 games) For the second time. That is MEANINGLESS. It's a sunk cost. We should completely ignore it.
  14. Mephistopheles
    exactly right. theyre trying to find a random detail that makes soriano better 1 run. When in fact there's the differences in the contracts and the added flexibility lugo would have given us compared to soriano. oh wait i cant assume that lugos contract will be less than sorianos according to jjgman21. Silly me.
  15. Mephistopheles
    keep reading. That's 9 runs. That doesn't make up the 11 run difference AND the contract differences. Keep in mind I used a VERY conservative projection on Julio Lugo.
  16. Mephistopheles
    You didn't. You're protecting him. You're putting the development of Pie ahead of the Cubs winning the division. If there's a 50% chance that JD Drew misses 40 games and we have to stall Pie, but in the 50% chance that JD Drew stays healthy, the Cubs have a good chance of making the playoffs. I am willing to sacrafice a decent prospect's development for a playoff chance with relative ease. You aren't. So yes, you're putting Pie's development before winning, and the ONLY and I stress ONLY way you can justify that is if you think Pie is the second coming of Carlos Beltran when he's more than likely the second coming of Ruben Mateo. show me that bringing up a prospect with 140 games in AAA for 40 games the next season significantly hurts him. You can't.
  17. Mephistopheles
    ive already said it. career averages for soriano, drew and some estimation on pie.
  18. Mephistopheles
    You're right. I am being very stupid backing up and verifying my claims with various facts. God, I should be ashamed. I said it wouldn't kill him. Translation: It's insigificant.
  19. Mephistopheles
    And showing blind stupid faith towards stupid things such as 40/40 overpaid out machines is perfectly fine? you have no point other than that you think pie is the best thing since sliced bread when in fact he's a run of the mill toolsy outfield prospect at this time and you also want to make sure we dont hurt him by throwing him to the fire which is exactly what billy beane, the braves and the marlins have done to their best prospects the last decade and guess what, it's worked out perfectly fine for them. 40 games isn't going to make a difference. 160 might. 40 certainly not. That's not being arrogant that using my head.
  20. Mephistopheles
    And pitchers should bat eigth. Tony Lala got that one right.
  21. Mephistopheles
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=99959 .303 in the NL, .306 in the AL (Pitchers not hitting)
  22. Mephistopheles
    great there's nothing worse than arguing semantics. i said "A long time of extended play in the majors getting his feet wet for 40 games isnt going to kill his development. " please tell me how outrageous that is. because to me its common sense.
  23. Mephistopheles
    because i tend to add things to them.
  24. Mephistopheles
    2003 .347 2004 .398 2005 .352 2006 .342 His career. BABIP is sustainable for a hitter, but yeah the chances that it's over .340 is small.
  25. Mephistopheles
    all i said was that i based on the past its a good estimation that the drop off from pierre to pie was insignificant. i then used the career averages from soriano and lugo. that's pretty standard and isnt projecting much and on a side note, the mere fact that we can even consider arguing lugo means more than soriano to the cubs offense, certainly means with the contract differences soriano was a terrible choice
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