Mephistopheles

So 10 posts into your NSBB career you want to be me, but unlike me you're completely wrong.

This one actually has the potential to make them better. Not really. He's a + ~35 defender. He's not Izturis.

Right, but just going through the BA handbook I see on most teams at least two SS prospects, many of whom are Dominican. A lot of guys with a smaller frame. Many of them end up being busts because their defense is better than their offense, and they end up being worse than Rey Rnez with the bat. But what pisses me off most about the Cubs minor league system (aside from the inability to develop hitters with a good approach at the plate) is the ineptitude when it comes to mining Latin American talent. many of them end up being busts because the ones with good bats and average gloves move elsewhere along the diamond because teams value defense at SS so much. The Cubs problems developing LA SS talent doesnt have anything to do with SS. It's the talent in general, as you have said.

You said it yourself. Fonte's a utility guy or a 2B. Cedeno may not be good now and may not be good eventually but he's the best choice we've got when it comes to upside and he's certainly not significantly worse than the other options. He should play. The FA class at SS usually sucks. Drafting and developing SSs is a crapshoot too since they're always toolsy guys. Granted Cedeno is one of them, but his tools have played as high as AAA. Honestly, I don't value defense all that highly, it's just Fonte is that bad. I'd love for the Cubs to pry away Sean Rodriguez from the Angels and stick him at short. However, he's not the type of player the Cubs usually target and go after. Dylan Johnston was a bust. Maybe Darwin Barney can hit enough to be average with his glove contributions but he's a Izturis upside guy to me. If I had to choose the Cubs SS in 2012 I'd say the two guys with the highest chance would be Ronny Cedeno or Brandon Crawford. I don't know if the Cubs would want Crawford, but he's just as likely as anyone else given the college spree this year and last.

brien taylor

josh vitters

That must've been somebody else I watched strike out 110 times last year. Ronny Cedeno has K'd 18% of the time in his career as a Chicago Cub. League average for K's by non-pitchers is about 17%. Again, adjustment season. Given his K% of 18% in the minors the fact that it was very very low against AAA pitching I would bet he's at worst league average when it comes to King. He's not prone to them.

ryan leaf

i dunno. if jj died and floyd broke his leg and murton got vertigo it could happen just being a ranting, condescending jerk to me would probably get you plenty of votes. heh.

wt was +10 percent. tenn is +20.

I'm glad Ronny can hit at Iowa, because he can't seem to hit anywhere else. Given how bad he was last year, I'm going to need to see some more proof that 2005 was not just the exception to the rule. You're missing the point. You're basically using good minor league numbers freely as you choose to make your argument and ignoring them for Cedeno when they are better. Cedeno has tools so while the uber BA is a bit of a fluke in AAA, so was the terrible 06 season. For hitters there IS a big adjustment period (learning curve) when they make the pros. There really isn't one for pitchers (TINSTAAPP). Cedeno has above average bat speed, average SS power, and good contact skills. He's not prone to strikeouts. The biggest hole in his game are the walks, but when the BA is there it's a non-issue with his above average defense. He's not going to be an All-Star but the tools are there for him to be an above average major league shortstop. Fontenot's got no chance to be average much less above average.

No I haven't seen him play SS regularly and there's probably good reason he hasn't. Anyways, you're saying that my opinion based on word of mouth is bad, but then making an argument about his defense based on six games you've seen? In terms of grading defense, here's where I would rank various methods. Actual Skill Level! Stats developed by Beane and other UBER ML teams *UZR included Probability based methods BP Methods ZR Scouts Eye Es, FPCT, RF, etc TruffleShuffle's eyesight based on 6 games. As you can see, the other reports certainly carry more weight than your six or seven games on TV. His .250 EqA on PECOTA!? WOW WE SHOULD ALL WANT TWO FIFTY EQAS. Fonte over Cedeno at 2B wouldn't be a dumb move. Fonte over Cedeno at SS would be. You're basing your argument on his strong performance at Iowa!? Awesome! Going into the season he was a career .281/.364/.432 hitter in AAA. He's been outstanding this year, no doubt. Ronny Cedeno's Two Seasons In AAA: 2005 - .355/.403/.518 2007 - .347/.446/.537 Statistically, both of those performances are better than Fontenot's flukish start to the 2007 season in Iowa. To base your argument off of Fonte's AAA numbers when theyre significantly inferior to Cedeno's AAA numbers isn't going to win you very many arguments.

keep in mind tennessee is one of the best hitting parks in the SL for HRs. WT was a good HR park but Tenn is even better.

depends on your source of steals.

Ive never gotten into an Adam Dunn argument on NSBB and I'm a big Adam Dunn fan. I'm sure I could make a tricked-out saber pro-Dunn movement argument if I wanted to. Should I? WOULD IT GET ME VOTES IN THE USER COMPETITION IN ROUND II???>

yes, that's about 100 per year, which isn't a small amount. How many LHP do you think there are in every rotation, three or four? Your argument that Jones could learn how to hit lefties is idiotic. about 30 percent of his PAs if he played every day and wasn't pinch hit for would come against southpaws. over the course of his career 22 percent have. Im not saying he could learn. Im saying if he faced them more often hed get better at hitting them. Im using that to say that Pie shouldnt be babied against them. In the first three years of Jones' career he faced lefties just 12 percent of the time. Im just trying to argue that how can Pie learn to hit ML lefties from the dugout. Is that really bad? Yes Jones is worse against them. If he faced them every possible chance should we expect him to improve?

Theriot may not be hitting .320 anymore, but I still see a patient hitter who always battles and knows how to play the game. The Cubs are winning because of players like Theriot and Fontenot, not in spite of them, and it's about time the Cubs embrace some of these hard-nosed players instead of the toolsy guys that never seem to pan out. I'm not sold on Cedeno being a better fielder than Theriot either. Any middle infield change right now would be insane. There's a trade off between defense, power and OBP. Moneyball does not equal OBP. Offense does not equal patient hitting. Winning does not equal white players who walk. The Cubs have won a couple of games the last week or so because of Fontenot but let's not forget the year of walk offs from Alex Gonzalez. It's just a random occurrence not anything to expect with routine. The Cubs have not won games the last six weeks because of Theriot, I can promise you that. Theriot has hit .242/.319/.322 since April 23rd.

Show me where I said that I assumed Cedeno's last season was a fluke. I didn't. It was a young player going through an adjustment season. I'm sure given consistent playing time that a drastic turnaround would be imminent. However, if I was wrong, the penalty would be just five runs lower than Izturis. (The payout would range from +15-30 runs over Izturis). You make the call. Are you kidding me. Fontenot? Fontenot would not only be the worst defensive shortstop in the major leagues, he might be the worst defensive shortstop in all of professional and college baseball. He's a passable below average second baseman at best and you're thinking about moving him to shortstop. Seriously, moving Derrek Lee to short would be smarter. Fontenot's bat isn't all that better than Cedeno's or Theriot's. It's better but not nearly good enough to play his defense at short. Don't worry Im sure Fontenot's recent good run is just another NSBB [expletive] Flavor of the Month just like Theriot in 2006 (who has been Cedeno-esque the last six weeks or so), Marqueef in 2007 (who has been the 06 version the last six weeks or so), etc.

EVERYONE VOTE FOR IMB

yeah 1000 PAs spread over what? 9 or 10 years? consistent play against them. for a guy who has done it forever like jones theres probably something there but to baby pie against lefties hurts his development too much. its utterly [expletive]. how do you expect to learn how to hit a curve from a lefty if hes sitting in the dugout

It's easy to say he should evolve into a ML average hitter overall, but the stats show that he was one of the worst hitters in all of baseball last year. He was actually worse than Izturis by a decent margin, and he certainly has been a worse hitter than Theriot. I'm fine with him playing every day for Iowa, where he can continue to work with Von Joshua and hopefully get back the confidence and discipline that he lost last year. You can shut up about Ryan Theriot. The Riot magic (luck) has worn off and he's simply not good. He's probably a better hitter than Cedeno at this point but doesn't play better defense. Worse than Izturis by a decent margin? He's FIVE runs worse over the course of a full season assuming he got ALL of the starts using Cesar's career .225 EqA and Cedeno's .215 EqA. If you use some PECOTA-adjustment (which you should) Cedeno is a present equal hitter. Those five runs over the course of a season are a WORST CASE scenario and are certainly worth betting for the payout of a player better than Izturis. Izturis is safer, but safe when you're crap like Izturis isn't exactly a good play. Give me the upside of Cedeno. To be honest Theriot and Cedeno are interchangeable in my opinion.

I dont see a world where the Cubs sign Preston Clark with a seven figure bonus.

Jones faced lefties all the time last year and he sucked against them. not really hed face them once every other week or so.

Pie should play against lefties. Major league managers (idiotic ones) wonder why a lot of lefties can't hit lefties. There are two reasons. One, they don't see them enough. Two, they hit against lefties in the minors whenever they face them just like righties but once they reach the majors managers baby them and only have them face righties for awhile. Then they wonder why lefties struggle against lefties because they havent had the same consistent adjustment period against major league lefties like they did against major league righties. Given a constant diet of lefty pitching there's no reason Pie cant hit lefties. Even Jones should be able to if he faced them often enough. Righties dont exhibit platoons in an infinite split and neither would lefties. The earth and moons rotational movement doesn't affect baseball.

Cedeno should play every day. He's proven he can hit AAA pitching with regularity both this season and in 2005. He's got decent hitting skills for a SS and should evolve into a ML average hitter overall (which is slightly above average for a SS). I would have handed Cedeno the job early in the season and played him no matter what. He's Izturis now with a decent chance of being better.