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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    the future? unless im mistaken he's a free agent after this season. I don't think he's a very good player anymore but this isnt the worst deal hes done. the money isnt an issue for the Cubs and its a buy low chance. there's a pretty damn good chance kendalls obp is .340+ the rest of the season. power? no but as long as hes not an auto out im happy. I was just going to point out that you singlehandedly brought me around on the trade in a span of like 15 minutes. heh, no one saw him obping 400 but its been refreshing to see someone on the cubs do it besides lee.
  2. Mephistopheles
    what i said the day he was traded here the future? unless im mistaken he's a free agent after this season. I don't think he's a very good player anymore but this isnt the worst deal hes done. the money isnt an issue for the Cubs and its a buy low chance. there's a pretty damn good chance kendalls obp is .340+ the rest of the season. power? no but as long as hes not an auto out im happy.
  3. Mephistopheles
    excellent
  4. Mephistopheles
    i know! those 27 run lead saves are so hard
  5. Mephistopheles
    baseball doesnt change between aaa and mlb. the idea of a aaaa player isnt a very good one.
  6. Mephistopheles
    The ol ball coach cant be happy about the 2 ls to UGA and shutout last season.
  7. Mephistopheles
    They aren't that bad either. They return just about everyone from a team that went 12-1 last year, the only loss being to Michigan where special teams and an injury to one of the best cornerbacks in the country let them down. That game was close in the second half. Sure they have an easier schedule, but they beat the teams that were put in front of them. they arent, they should be in the 15-25 range. They beat one top 25 team last season. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat, there's something for that. I just have a hard time seeing them ranked 7th in the nation after they beat just one top 25 team last season and then seeing the two big dogs in their conference getting smacked in the mouth.
  8. Mephistopheles
    i dont get all the expectations for the badgers. theyre just not that good.
  9. Mephistopheles
    actually he's right.
  10. Mephistopheles
    Why yes it is abuck!
  11. Mephistopheles
    ESPN is running some new Face of the Franchise series online. For the Cubs you can vote for Zambrano, Piniella, Lee, Soriano or Ramirez. http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/face/mlb/index Honestly, I still think of Woody.
  12. Mephistopheles
    Thats the nuts and bolts behind it. There's something to be said for it. There's another FIP hybrid, xFIP which doesn't use HRs but estimates HRs via outfield flyballs, which is another thing to guage them. A high amount of Richs flyballs have gone over the fence and his xFIP is 4.20. Davis' xFIP on the other hand is 4.80. In this case, xFIP probably means more than FIP. Of course FIP is flawed. Every statistic is flawed, even the uber ones like EqA. The only question is which is flawed more, ERA or FIP/xFIP etc and it's the former.
  13. Mephistopheles
    Are the Cubs on the Bears schedule or something
  14. Mephistopheles
    can we laugh at the astros?
  15. Mephistopheles
    hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise. This is true. This probably isn't the best way to grade consistency in starts, but it's a useful way. Game score is kinda worthless but it gets the job done here. Average Game Scores - Cub Starters 1. 55.2 Ted Lilly 2. 55.1 Rich Hill 3. 53.9 Carlos Zambrano 4. 49.3 Sean Marshall 5. 48.9 Jason Marquis Standard Deviation of Game Scores - Cub Starters 1. 19.3 Carlos Zambrano 2. 17.4 Jason Marquis 3. 16.7 Sean Marshall 4. 16.7 Rich Hill 5. 14.7 Ted Lilly People should shut up about Hill's inconsistency.
  16. Mephistopheles
    Rich Hill has a .263 BABIP. Doug Davis has a .310 BABIP. Although some lefty curveballers have shown a consistent ability to minimize their BABIP. Barry Zito is one of them and the comparisons between Zito and Hill are not hidden.
  17. Mephistopheles
    the difference between the optimal lineup (basically descending OBP 1-9) and the least optimal lineup (basically ascending OBP 1-9) is like 30 runs over the course of a season, iirc. Since no managers EVER do the extremes, it really is irrelevant.
  18. Mephistopheles
    the game never should have been played. especially w/ zambrano going.
  19. Mephistopheles
    http://www.wunderground.com/data/nids/LOT19_0_t.gif it could be awhile.
  20. Mephistopheles
    I fully expect Florida to beat Western Kentucky. I know I am going out on a limb here.
  21. Mephistopheles
    meh @ cots contracts. i forgot, but you get my point. there are others.
  22. Mephistopheles
    lets see, my prognosis for Marshall next year is a 5 or so era and for Zambrano, the high threes so we're looking for two pitchers who can put up an era in mid 4s on average. oh there's jake westbrook. that's one. westbrook probably wont be getting lilly money since hes having a down season. then we can have carlos silva. he's probably going to get less than lilly money as well. we'd, of course, still have plenty of money to spend on say adam dunn, a real catcher, etc. westbrook and silva would combine for an ERA in the low to mid 4s, pretty damn close to the likely scenario with zambrano and marshall.
  23. Mephistopheles
    They sure aren't in the 08 free agent market. eh i didnt mean in the FA market. trades etc. Crap it doesnt even have to be pitchers. My point was that Zambrano, while being a top pitcher, doesnt justify 90+ because of his injury risk. we can spend the same amount of cash and help the team just as much if not more with lower risk. Im not saying who what when how but it starts with a man named Dunn. The Cubs, as you know, aren't buying good deals, theyre buying bad deals. Theyre not spending money wisely. Even the Cubs have limits on their purses.
  24. Mephistopheles
    i told you all the brewers werent good. dont look now but theyve now allowed more runs than theyve scored.
  25. Mephistopheles
    the analysis you provided really doesnt mean anything. you didnt compare it to anything. you just looked at one random pitcher (zambrano) suspected injury and went to his comps. the thing is youre going to find A LOT of injuries for any pitchers comps no matter how durable they are. just because maloney and ramon went kaputt it doesnt really mean that zambranos comps are risky. take oswalt for instance. five of the top six comps for him were done as a sp by the time they turned 30.
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