Mephistopheles

Joe Carter's RBI whoring lore overratedness has been well-documented. I'll point out another one and I expect to get slammed on this one: Manny Ramirez.

Joe Carter's RBI whoring lore overratedness has been well-documented. I'll point out another one and I expect to get slammed on this one: Manny Ramirez.

Quality starts are pointless. I don't bother looking at them. Looking at ERAs in quality starts is even more pointless. Looking at ERAs in Ws and Ls is even more pointless. In sum, they're all pointless.

Garrett Anderson Carlos Lee

is it just coincidence? Obviously.

Because it's not his fault.

Like I said, it's scientific and you can't argue with science. Katie Holmes fell for science.

No.

It's been pretty obvious that Guillen is at least his equal, and a cursory look at the numbers tells you Carlos is better. Guillen - 23, 8, 26, 18 WS Jeter - 26, 26, 33, 20 WS Guillen - 102, 42, 107, 89 RC Jeter - 99, 106, 138, 97 RC Guillen is underrated for sure but he still hasn't been as valuable as Jeter over the last 4 years partially because of the fact he gets banged up some every year but also because OBP is more valuable than SLG and Jeter has had close to .400 OBP over the past 3 years. You are giving credit to Jeter for playing on the Yankees. Good job. Believe me I can shove this down your throat if I wanted to. But I am a changed man, I am going to be nice. The simple fact of the difference in counting stats like that is PA. On a PA basis Guillen's been better for three years. Jeter bats a lot more because of the team/manager he plays for.

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y274/krkhinrich/zlinegraph.jpg Classic.

There's a difference in having great stuff and harnessing or maximizing that great stuff. His control isn't that great. That factors in to determining how great a pitchers 'stuff' is. Is there a stat on "stuff"? No. You use your eyes. You can use a scouting eye, which is not great. Zambrano's sinking fastball used to grade out as a 75-80. It is now probably in the 60-70 range. His offspeed stuff falls into the 30-50 range depending on the pitch. BP has a stuff score which measures "dominance"

Zambrano's stuff isn't that good. He's got a plus fastball and two pitches that don't grade out that well. His fastball a few years ago was plus-plus now not so much. His offspeed stuff has never been overly impressive. I would call them average but it would be an insult to some of the posters here.

The same intangibles that are 0 fer the last 6 years? Whose team was in the WS last?

Extend it 5 years so we can use Gene Tenace. Other than that....how many of you knew that Carlos Guillen was better than Derek Jeter?

Peavy's a perfect example. And like Z in 2007, his peripherals in 2006 were all pretty much in line with his career norms, save for a couple. In Zambrano's case his peripherals line up but his previous peripherals lined up to his current ERA, and that's something I haven't gotten into.

I don't need to look too far. Jake Peavy. mark buehrle's 2006 brad penny's 2006 andy ashby's 1997 javier vazquez's 2004-2006 kevin brown's 1991 as for the reason? there really isn't one. zambrano is giving up more home runs and hits this year, but he didn't give up any home runs yesterday. he's walking fewer guys than last year. he still has 4-5 starts to get his season back under control, and i'll say there's a fairly good chance that he does put it together. mike mussina's 1996 curt schilling's 1994 randy johnson's 1998 before he was traded (ironically the exact contract situation) andy pettitte's 1997, 2006 dontrelle willis' 2007 barry zito's 2007 (ironically the exact contract situation) tim hudson's 2006 (ironically the exact contract situation) john smoltz's 1994 brandon webb's 2004 (era be damned) greg maddux's 1999 tom glavine's 2003, 1999 roy halladay's 2004 Zambrano's 2007 is better than most of these seasons by ERA+. Not really adding anything to your list but the name recognition on this one is higher. There are several HoFers or borderline HoFers there.

Ok a very bad year for my standards on Carlos Zambrano. It is a bad year by Zambrano's standards. All pitchers have bad years based on their standards. Because a pitcher's career is a finite set of seasons, one has to be the worst.

Its his entire season as a whole, and everything that has encompassed it. He has brought alot of this on himself and you know that. Declaring you are going to win a Cy Young award and then crapping the bed the 1st 2 months of the season. Then getting into a fight with his own teammate. Then using his contract as an excuse as to why hes pitching bad, and then sign the contract and continue to pitch bad. So what, he's not allowed to have a down season. Are you turning into Dan Duquette on us? (I doubt you even get that reference) Pitchers have down years. Pitchers have down months. Zambrano is human. Well most staff aces dont have down years like hes had, after signing a big ass contract. Gah? Most staff aces don't have down years? You sure you don't want to rescind that comment? They might be out there, but staff aces who are entering their prime of their careers Id say it doesnt happen very often. However Im willing to see some example of guys who were entering their prime who suddenly just had a horrible year like Z. I don't need to look too far. Jake Peavy. Ok Peavys 2006 was worse than his previous 2 years by far. And whats odd about that is the only difference in all his stats are hits. He didnt really walk more, but gave up a tad more Hr's. Interesting. Do you have any reasoning behind Peavys year, or just it was a down year? Any other guys you got? Look at Zambrano's. Just a bit more HRs. Same hits, less Ks. walks are about the same. Just a down year for both. It could be the way they came into the season. Peavy's velo was down a bit last season and it's back up this season. At least that's what I noticed but I havent watched all of his starts from both seasons. I noticed that from a few I watched. It's fine command that's the difference. More or less when you make your mistakes. They just tended to make their mistakes to good hitters. All pitchers make mistakes. It's when you make mistakes that makes your ERA. Zambrano's always done fine against better hitters so its possible earlier in his career his mistakes for whatever reason coincided w/ poorer hitters at the plate. There really isn't an explanation besides health and fine command (not control). Another great example is Josh Beckett last season. Roy Halladay hasn't been consistent (though he's not a K pitcher). You're running out of comps of Z. Look at his top ten comps 1. Ramon Martinez (966) 2. Dave Boswell (962) 3. Jim Maloney (957) 4. Pedro Martinez (953) 5. Ismael Valdez (949) 6. Jim Nash (947) 7. Dan Petry (946) 8. Jake Peavy (944) 9. Andy Benes (943) 10. Steve Barber (942) We already mentioned Peavy. Ramon had an ERA+ as low as 86 in his prime and shoulder problems got his career. Boswell practically died as a pitcher at age 25. Ironically Boswell got into a fight with a teammate his last good season. Shoulder problems ended his career. Maloney's career is well-documented. ERA+ of 88 one season. Shoulder problems also got him. Pedro got shoulder problems. He's not out of the norm. All aces have them. Lefty had a ERA+ of 98 when he was 28. Zs ERA+ is 104.

Let's also get one thing straight. He's not having a horrible year. He's on pace for a 6+ WARP season. Not his usually 8 WARP stuff, but to put it into perspective, Carp's 2004 was under 5.

Its his entire season as a whole, and everything that has encompassed it. He has brought alot of this on himself and you know that. Declaring you are going to win a Cy Young award and then crapping the bed the 1st 2 months of the season. Then getting into a fight with his own teammate. Then using his contract as an excuse as to why hes pitching bad, and then sign the contract and continue to pitch bad. So what, he's not allowed to have a down season. Are you turning into Dan Duquette on us? (I doubt you even get that reference) Pitchers have down years. Pitchers have down months. Zambrano is human. Well most staff aces dont have down years like hes had, after signing a big ass contract. Gah? Most staff aces don't have down years? You sure you don't want to rescind that comment? They might be out there, but staff aces who are entering their prime of their careers Id say it doesnt happen very often. However Im willing to see some example of guys who were entering their prime who suddenly just had a horrible year like Z. I don't need to look too far. Jake Peavy.

So we are villifying him by wanting him to stop sucking and start pitching like the ace he is? Ya sounds like we are real irrational. you've been villifying him from your very first post. And no one said anything about the fact that wanting him to stop sucking is a bad thing. But that yesterday was beyond that. We are going to have to agree to disagree because you arent going to change my mind that there was nothing wrong with what took place yesterday from the fans. I was just about to say the same thing, because I think yesterday was bushleague and classless. So was his performence... hahahahaha. that's a good one. yea z's all out hustle and zeal and passion for which he plays the game is the complete opposite of bushleague and classless. But I know you need to feel justification for the way he was treated by supposed fans yesterday. I don't care about hustle, Zeal, and Passion. I care about results, and the man isn't getting it done when we need him most. It's really that simple. And this simple fact as you put it doesn't mean jack when it comes to whether or not he will produce over the higher leverage month of september Do you put any stock into the fact that his stats over the course of his career in the month of Sept arent very good? Hes had 2 very good Septembers, but only 1 of those were when we were in a pennant race(2004) Other than that his stats in Sept have been really bad. Im asking an honest question here, is that too small a sample, or do you think some stock should be put into it? His career ERA is 3.41. His career ERA in September is 3.48. (Actually I don't think that figure includes his last outing, but still there's no statistically significant difference between his ERA in September and his ERA over the full season). That Sept ERA could be a little skewed though by the fact that hes had 2 years, 2004 and 2002, one a pennant race the other not, where his ERA was way under 2.00 Every other year in his career is over 4.00 So like I said I dont know if its too small a sampling to see a noticable causation, but I think it could be something to keep an eye on. I dont want you to get me wrong, Im not blaming his Sept numbers on his mentality at all, I just really wonder if since he throws sooo many pitches over a course of a season, if by Sept his arm isnt just really worn out. Or maybe he's actually good in september but the two bad ones are bringing up the average because it is a limited sample. It goes both ways. As for his health, if that's true the blame shouldn't be placed on him, but the trainers and the managers. That's largely out of his control. I do think that Zambrano has good offseason work ethic, so that's not an issue. He always seems to come to camp in decent health. He's no Clemens but he's certainly no Rusch.

Its his entire season as a whole, and everything that has encompassed it. He has brought alot of this on himself and you know that. Declaring you are going to win a Cy Young award and then crapping the bed the 1st 2 months of the season. Then getting into a fight with his own teammate. Then using his contract as an excuse as to why hes pitching bad, and then sign the contract and continue to pitch bad. So what, he's not allowed to have a down season. Are you turning into Dan Duquette on us? (I doubt you even get that reference) Pitchers have down years. Pitchers have down months. Zambrano is human. Well most staff aces dont have down years like hes had, after signing a big ass contract. Incorrect once again. Zambrano never had a contract until August. His struggles earlier in the season have little to do with the contract. Most staff aces DO have down years like the one he's had. You didn't get the reference. No I didnt get the reference. But Z himself said the contract situation was bothering him so it had some effect, unless that was just one of Z's excuses. I cant think of many aces who in the beginning of the prime of their career have struggled and had the kind of down year like Z, Id say its not common. After Clemens last season with the Sox, the current GM Dan Duquette said that Clemens was in the twilight in his career (or something like that I don't know the exact quote), this after coming off of four consecutive years of winning 11 games or yes (I know the metric is bad but at the time it was probably THE way to grade pitchers so think of it as using ERA to make the connection now). So Duquette traded him. Then. the rest is obviously history.

This is untrue. If I am Pedro Martinez and it's the offseason between 1999 and 2000, and I say I predict I will win the CYA, does that make me an idiot or arrogant? That makes me betting on the odds. But this is a tangent but there are a few cases where predicting a CYA for yourself isn't idiotic. I don't have a problem with that comment. It came off wrong, but it seemed to me like that was his goal. Frankly, I'd rather his goal be to win the CYA than make the playoffs, because of he does the first the second would come.

So we are villifying him by wanting him to stop sucking and start pitching like the ace he is? Ya sounds like we are real irrational. you've been villifying him from your very first post. And no one said anything about the fact that wanting him to stop sucking is a bad thing. But that yesterday was beyond that. We are going to have to agree to disagree because you arent going to change my mind that there was nothing wrong with what took place yesterday from the fans. I was just about to say the same thing, because I think yesterday was bushleague and classless. So was his performence... hahahahaha. that's a good one. yea z's all out hustle and zeal and passion for which he plays the game is the complete opposite of bushleague and classless. But I know you need to feel justification for the way he was treated by supposed fans yesterday. I don't care about hustle, Zeal, and Passion. I care about results, and the man isn't getting it done when we need him most. It's really that simple. And this simple fact as you put it doesn't mean jack when it comes to whether or not he will produce over the higher leverage month of september Do you put any stock into the fact that his stats over the course of his career in the month of Sept arent very good? Hes had 2 very good Septembers, but only 1 of those were when we were in a pennant race(2004) Other than that his stats in Sept have been really bad. Im asking an honest question here, is that too small a sample, or do you think some stock should be put into it? His career ERA is 3.41. His career ERA in September is 3.48. (Actually I don't think that figure includes his last outing, but still there's no statistically significant difference between his ERA in September and his ERA over the full season).

Holy jesus the irony is frightening. We arent even talking in the same context here, but whatever. I understand Z has been good for us in the past, and I also understand Z will be good for us in the future. However that still doesnt mean hes free of criticism when he does suck like he has this year. People who are smart won't criticize him because they know all pitchers struggle at some point. You said it yourself, he will be good for us in the future and he's been good for us in the past. What's the point of criticizing him? It's not going to change anything. It probably has very little to do with anything he can change. So really you're criticizing a pitcher because he's not pitching like a hall of famer. Jesus you're tough. He's mortal.