I'm as numbers oriented as anyone. Heck I'm a scientist. That's why qoutes like the below drive me up the freaking wall. No scientist worth his salt would make such a statement. There is measurement error in any model. And variation is not the same as luck. One does not call everything that cannot be explained by a model luck. I'm glad that the author took the time to invistigate when and why the model can breakdown. The point is to see how well a model fits reality, not the other way around. Aren't we arguing semantics here? Some people would call variation "luck" others would not.
I love when he specifically pitches himself into trouble (walking 7-8-9 hitters) and then makes some good pitches to get himself out of it and someone bloops it out of the infield to score some runs. Screw you, Carlos. You deserve it.
The way offenses are going nowadays (although home runs are down, and I haven't checked for sure, but I think runs in general are down) we almost certainly are gonna see oddball 30 run (or possibly more) games again.
they're substantially better than the cubs. yet they cant beat the brewers joke you're right...the brewers should just lose every game from here on out so the cubs can play .450 baseball the rest of the way and coast into the playoffs. I'd be comfortable with that. Actually in the adjusted standings, the Cubs are way better than the D'Backs.