Actually, he probably is. PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor. CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close. I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself). I will go out on a limb and say that all three will be wrong and Marquis will be about a run better than Ryu. Of course you will. You have no professional experience with projecting performances, nor do you have professional credibility that needs sustaining in order to ensure the money keeps coming in (at least not in this area). Not only that, but now Ryu has switched to the AL East. No offense intended of course, but I think I'll continue trusting the people that get paid to make these projections. After everything is said and done, I suspect Ryu's ERA will be slightly better after adjusting for league context. I'm not asking for your trust. All I'm asking is that you to remember my prediction come October. I don't think that Marquis is that good of a pitcher. But I think Ryu is worse. I'm choosing to not accept wholesale some predictions from these other sources because, as is detailed before, I'm not sold on their predictions for rookie pitchers. That's my choice. We'll see next fall if I was right or they were.