Please forgive the following somewhat unorganized thoughts: The thing I thought about while reading this is that over the past ten years, the Cubs minor league system has gone from bad to good to bad (and maybe now to good). When we were considered a top ten system, the majority of our top 10-20 prospects had never had any time in AA or higher. By the time those "major prospects" spent time in AA, they were considered busts (or were hurt permanently), causing our system to lose those prospects. Due to the attrition of prospect status from the low minors to the high minors, I would like to see how many top ten organizations have more prospects who have experienced some success at a higher level. I can see the arguments against my thoughts above, but I think that Baseball America (who I respect greatly) would rank an organization with ten 1st round draft picks from 2008 higher than an organization with ten 20th rounders from 2006 who have had various amounts of success at AA and who are age-appropriate. I would personally enjoy rooting for either organization, but I feel that the ten 20th rounders are more likely to help the major league ball club (and sooner) since they are succeeding at a high level already. Don't forget how many 1st rounders are busts! Some of the players in the running for Top 10 in our system: Josh Vitters Starlin Castro - 111 AB's at AA Brett Jackson Jay Jackson - 82.2 IP at AA Andrew Cashner - 58.1 IP at AA Chris Carpenter - 32.0 IP at AA Kyler Burke Ryan Flaherty D.J. LeMahieu Dae-Eun Rhee Hak-Ju Lee Chris Archer Robert Hernandez It's nice to see a lot of our exciting players with some AA experience. For me, that would nudge them ahead of some higher ceiling prospects who are still at a lower level. So here is how I would rank our top ten: 1 - Josh Vitters (18 HR's in 484 AB's as a 19 year old gives me hope) 2 - Starlin Castro (will be higher when he develops some power) 3 - Andrew Cashner (success at AA and FB speeds in the AFL makes me more confident) 4 - Jay Jackson (success at AA and domination at High-A as a 21 year old is a great sign) 5 - Kyler Burke (.910 OPS and .303 average at age-appropriate level makes 1st rounder valuable) 6 - Brett Jackson (power & speed combo make this CFer someone to watch) 7 - John Gaub (K's/IP is higher than any other lefty/consistently low ERA/potential to help CHC in '10) 8 - Blake Parker (Faded down the stretch, otherwise #'s would be better/great ERA's all 3 years) 9 - Jeff Stevens (WHIP and K's/IP are solid, should help the CHC bullpen in '10) 10 - Chris Archer (young for Low-A but repeating, K's/IP & H/IP is solid for a LHSP, BB's worry me but similar to Big Z) Part of the problem is that a guy like John Gaub who might be starting in the lower minors doesn't get the same appreciation once he's pegged as a reliever. So organizations with more AA and AAA quality players than lower level players have fewer top prospects because relievers and players who can play multiple positions are rarely placed on top 10 lists. To me, if John Gaub pitches with the Cubs next year and posts an ERA around 3.00 with 75 IP, then he was a valuable player on our team (despite just being a reliever). I tend to rank him higher than a lot of people here at NSBB. I haven't seen him on anyone's top 10 list. These guys would be in my 11-30 pile (reasons why in parentheses): - Hak-Ju Lee (limited data, not out of Short-A ball, some doubts remain about his glove, speed is exciting) - Ryan Flaherty (not a great defender, projects to play 2B, 22 at Low-A, AVG should be higher for his pedigree, exciting power) - Chris Carpenter (not convinced yet, old for his levels where he had success, average #'s in AA in '09/Boise in '08) - Dae-Eun Rhee (let's see how he performs after TJS, slow to recover, limited data (only 10 solid starts in '08)) - Robert Hernandez (steroids worry me, moved backwards to short-A after two years in Low-A, rough '08) - D.J. LeMahieu (slap hitter without speed who projects as a 2B) - I like a few of the draft picks from '09 here, but very early to know for sure - High-A to AAA players who fit here: (Caridad, Berg, Castillo, Colvin, Maestri, Dolis, Guyer, Rosa) - Choose a few from Peoria (Ridling, Lake, Beliveau, Buchter, Huseby) Sorry for the length - feel free to disagree! :)