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Ender

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Everything posted by Ender

  1. Ender
    LOL, he doesn't watch many Cubs games does he. Well the post is pretty silly, its just a rant but balls have been bouncing the Cubs way left and right since about late May now. The wild pitching in philly, the flurry of 2 out RBI hits in July, all the errors and bad defense other teams played in August, games like tonight where a couple misplayed balls hand the game to you. Someone upstairs is on the Cubs side. Granted in April/May the opposite happened, the Cubs couldn't buy a break and Yost even said he thought more things bounced our way in that one month than all of last year.
  2. Ender
    Pitchers against the Cubs... .140/.165/.177/.342 Pitchers against NL (including Cubs) - .144/.177/.187/.363
  3. Ender
    Is the strike zone as erratic as it seems in Gameday? I don't really trust Gameday but if its accurate this guys strike zone is all over the place.
  4. Ender
    Cubs LD% is at 18% on the year which is pretty much completely normal, GB% is 41% which is even a tad low. The one thing that stands out is they lead the NL in K/9 but I really do think the defense is playing a role in the ERA.
  5. Ender
    Umpiring has been terrible all over baseball this season. This season has seen 3.34 BB/9 Last season was 3.30 I don't think its made that huge a difference in BB totals.
  6. Ender
    Well if thats the case then the Cubs have either been extremely lucky or they are doing an outstanding job of positioning themselves to make plays because they are making a lot more plays than an average defensive team.
  7. Ender
    The Cubs still rate a +50 using the plus/minus system. DER agrees with that system the majority of the time so I tend to trust it. The Cubs have the 2nd best DER in MLB. The Marlins rate a whopping -100. The Brewers are one of the worst in baseball at a -50 which is why their ERA is so bad even though their FIP says the pitching should be decent.
  8. Ender
    Yep they can for sure. Another factor is getting ahead in the count, BABIP most certainly fluctuates based on counts. However pretty much no pitcher sustains a .262 BABIP. Marquis has a career rate of .284 and that is almost completely on strong defensive teams.
  9. Ender
    I'm sure it is, but last year was the exception for him. He is throwing the ball this year just like he did almost every single year in his career before last year and no his BABIP is not just coming from mechanical issues, its almost certainly not sustainable given just how low it is this year. Last year I'm sure his mechanics were off its why his stats were so far outside the norm and screamed regression back to his previous 3 year average, which is exactly what happened.
  10. Ender
    Marquis' stats look exactly like the did most of the rest of his career, I don't think anyone helped him, he just had a bad year last year. The lowest BABIP of his career has helped him the most and I'm sure will regress next year but the Cubs play good defense so I don't imagine he'll change all that much. For a team like the Brewers or Marlins he'd probably have an ERA around 5.00 though, yes defense makes that big of a difference.
  11. Ender
    Cubs now have 12 games left, Brewers 14 games. Brewers play 3@Hou who are out of it and I'm going to predict they take 2 of 3. 4@Atl who could be out of it at that point, I'll predict 1.5 of 4. 3 vs STL who will be out of it and I predict 2 of 3. 4 vs SD which is the wild card, if they have nothing to play for then the Brewers don't have to face Peavy. That series is like 2.5 out of 4. Brewers final record 84-78. Cubs would need to go 6-6 in their final 12 games to force a playoff and just have a winning record to take the division.
  12. Ender
    How have we struggled with the Cardinals? A loss and 2 close games that ended up wins. The Cubs were 2 swings of the bat away from losing 3 games in a row to the Cardinals, thats hardly dominating. Thats really really pushing it. We have faced their ace, and a guy who has dominated everybody in the daytime. Alot of baseball games come down to 1 swing of the bat. Yeah a lot of them do, but I think that was the original posters point. These are games that either side could easily win, the Cubs just did enough in 2 of the 3 to pull off the wins. That would be having 'trouble' with them.
  13. Ender
    How have we struggled with the Cardinals? A loss and 2 close games that ended up wins. The Cubs were 2 swings of the bat away from losing 3 games in a row to the Cardinals, thats hardly dominating.
  14. Ender
    A lot of fancy math over at brewerfan.net came up with an expected wins of 83 for the Brewers. If that holds true then the Cubs need to go 8-8 for a tie breaker game. That seams reasonable to me as well except my guess is its only 2 of 3 against STL. The Brewers are a better team than SD in miller park, they are just a lot better team at home and SD plays poorly in HR hitting parks so I think a split is a very fair expectation. Of course the way the Brewers have played this season I wouldn't rule out them winning 12 of the games or winning just 5 of the games. They have had so many ups and downs and rarely at any point played .500 ball over a stretch. They are either hot or not.
  15. Ender
    Brewers are 9-5 in their last 14 games so they aren't exactly rolling over lately. All season long they have followed every strong streak with a weak one though so that may be good news for the Cubs.
  16. Ender
    Even though you guys look to draw Peavy, Maddux and Young that series? No thanks. The Pirates are pesky, but I'd rather play them than the Padres regardless of venue. You can talk about deceptive matchups, but the fact is that neither the Brewers or Cubs are that strong. Yes for sure I would. The Brewers are 20-42 in PNC park now, they simply cannot play there. Maddux and Young both carry over a 4 ERA on the road this season and the Padres don't play very well in HR hitting parks which is what Miller park is. Give me the padres at home any day of the week over the pirates on the road.
  17. Ender
    I'd rather face San Diego at home than the Pirates on the road any day of the week as the Brewers. Sometimes the matchups aren't quite as easy as they look.
  18. Ender
    Right there is why the Cubs go the playoffs this year if they do end up winning it. The Brewers give up an extra run every other game defensively, Cubs save an extra run every 2 to 3 games with good defense.
  19. Ender
    Ned Yost is the worst manager in baseball, next time Piniella does something you don't like just thank your lucky stars this joker isn't your manager.
  20. Ender
    You mean MIL defense not pitching. This game should be 4-0 or so if the Brewers played even average defense instead of bouncing easy throws to 1B and having absolutely no range in LF or RF. Sorry I know its an old argument but all the defensive metrics back me up, its the defense that is terrible on that team, the pitching is at least average.
  21. Ender
    Brewers cannot win @Pit. They are 19-41 in this park going into tonight. 1 out of 3 is considered good when we play there.
  22. Ender
    Yeah it's comment like this that make me stand up and think if people ever think before they post. Okay I don't stand up.... 48% of balls that go into play off of Ted Lilly are flyballs. 43% of balls that go into play off of Rich Hill are flyballs. You obviously missed my point though. I didn't say Lilly is an ace, I said he has pitched the best out of all the Cubs this year. What you see out of Lilly this year is probably his career year, I doubt you see another one better though he might match it. This is his upside. Zambrano has been a true ace in the past but his stats have been regressing not improving, add in all the mileage on his arm and the fact that I'm not sure he's ever going to mature mentally and I'm not so sure he's going to be an ace long term. Hill to me is the most likely to become a true ace over the next few years, I just think that FB% is going to limit him. When only 34%-35% of your balls are hit on the ground you really have to limit those BB's to be an ace.
  23. Ender
    He has pitched the best out of any of the pitchers this year though. Zambrano is lucky that his ERA isn't higher than it is. Hill could turn into the ace but I think that flyball percentage is always going to hold him back in that stadium. Lilly's stats aren't all that surprising, his BB's are down but a lot of that is not having to face the Red Sox and Yankees so much. The biggest surprise is he's been healthy all year, he has not had a fully health season in his entire career.
  24. Ender
    Obviously its the rotation... Wells Thompson Reyes Wainright Piniero
  25. Ender
    Vikings won and it looks like the Packers will win a game they don't deserve to win on the strength of two muffed punts by the Eagles. I bet the Lions lose at least so it will only be a 3 way tie for 1st. Brewers are historically terrible @Pit so you should have a good shot at making this game up over the next 3 days.
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