You are ignoring the very bad games from before he was hurt. He actually got some wins in bad games, which probably caused people to overlook his performance. Marshall was not good. He had good games, but the Cubs don't need pitchers who have occasional good games. The results were not good before or after the injury. And the injury was no fluke, it's a recurring theme in his career. I'd put him ahead of those guys as well, probably, but none of them should be considered anything close to a lock for the 2007 rotation. Is Hill a lock in your book? He started the year with some awful outings. He and Marshall seem to be opposites. Hill started out poorly but made some adjustments and ended the year strong. Marshall started out better than Hill and finished poorly. If you're looking at the body of work, both had some good and bad outings. I suppose it's possible that I'm putting too much emphasis on the good and too little on the bad. Maybe "lock" was too strong, but Marshall should get a good chance to see if he can build on his limited success at this level. Assume 1 FA's this offseason goony, who fills the other slot? Hill is quite different. He's older, more experienced, has a longer track record of success at higher levels, had far greater major league success, and has been less prone to injury. Marshall stunk this year at the major league level (before and after the injury), and received a much greater chance and far longer leash than Hill. I would consider Hill to be a near lock, unless they acquire 3 guys and Prior proves to be 100% in the spring. Marshall didn't start out better than Hill, Marshall started the year with a chance, while Hill did not. Marshall had a good first game, but 2 bad ones soon after. Body of work was clearly in Hill's favor (111 ERA+ to 83 ERA+). If Hendry only signs 1 FA, then he better hope to heck that Miller and Prior are both 100%, and make a 2nd acquisition via trade because Marshall needs more seasoning, and has no business as the 4th starter next April. If those guys aren't healthy and he doesn't get more guys via trade, you are looking at: Zambrano, FA, Hill, Marshall, Guzman/Mateo, and that might not be any better than this year's rotation, which stunk. Hendry needs to do what he can to field a team with 5 starters significantly better than what we could expect to get out of Marshall next year.