goonys evil twin

Wear stain resistent clothing.

What's that now? What does Pierre's negotiating skills have to do with the cost in trade for Crawford?

Why would Suppan get 5 or 6 million more per year? They're both pretty average pitchers. Have you not watched the playoffs? Pitchers can earn big bucks in the playoffs. Aside from Suppan's recent results, he's been a more stable good pitcher, while Lilly was absolutely terrible last season. Suppan has at least shown some 200 IP seasons, while Lilly has never accomplished that. I believe Suppan will go into this offseason perceived as the more stable, more reliable, big game pitcher, while Lilly is just Ted Lilly. I think Lilly would be the greater value, as they are somewhat similar pitchers, and could have identical 2007 seasons, with Lilly making considerably less money. Of course, he could also get involved in a bidding war and become way overpriced.

The odds of Suppan being a value-buy this offseason is practically zero since he's channeling the ghost of Bob Gibson's career. He might end up banking 8-10 million due to his "playoff experience" and "clutchness"... and that's for a league average, innings-eater sort of pitcher. Not a good use of money. The market is what it is for a #3 starter. An average pitcher in the current market that stays relatively healthy makes 7-8 million a year, usually on a 3-year contract. Suppan might get a bit more due to the 'playoff experience'. I'm not sure if it is a poor use of money since you're not going to find much cheaper production from a veteran anyway. Teams are probably better off running two high-priced top-end starters, one average veteran, and two cheap kids from the farm. Suppan and Lilly fit the role of that #3 and you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy cheaper than 7 million at that role. Have we not learned our lesson yet about overpaying for guys that don't make a difference? The team would be much better off picking up Matsuzaka and Schmidt and running them out there with Z, Hill, and Prior (or whoever is healthy). Yeah, we'd have to tear the overpriced, mediocre bullpen apart to get salary relief... but we'd have a good pitching staff. There's nothing wrong with a league-average innings guy. They do have value. But that value is nowhere near what they will be making. Personally, I'd just rather spend the extra money on guys who will make a difference than doll out the cash for league average guys. Because, in general, league average guys will lead to a league average team... and not a great one. Who are we talking about here. Suppan and Lilly are not going to get similar deals. I bet Suppan gets 3/33 or higher. Lilly might have to settle for 2/10-12, maybe 3/18.

While he could be posturing to drive up Burrell's value, this is a change from earlier statements. Didn't Hendry consistently say that Sosa was going to be his right-fielder in 2005? I believe the phrasing was something like, "as of right now, I am assuming Sammy Sosa will be our RF next year".

That's odd because Beltre is absolutely, f********* horrible. Odd, though. He's certainly absolutely horrible on the downside. But he does have a 106 OPS+ for his career and was at 108 last year. And for what it's worth, baseballreference.com lists Ron Santo as his most similar batter by age. He's way overpaid, but cheaper than Burrell the next two years (and less productive).

You are ignoring the very bad games from before he was hurt. He actually got some wins in bad games, which probably caused people to overlook his performance. Marshall was not good. He had good games, but the Cubs don't need pitchers who have occasional good games. The results were not good before or after the injury. And the injury was no fluke, it's a recurring theme in his career. I'd put him ahead of those guys as well, probably, but none of them should be considered anything close to a lock for the 2007 rotation.

Great, I'm not going to get home until well after midnight. Are you going to the game? damn skippy Oh well let me break out some pity for your late night.... Damn...fresh out... Going to Jets/Bears with 7 Jets fans, and Giants game with 1 Giants fan. Add that to the Lions game earlier, and I will have gone to more Bears games this year than I have in the past 6 years combined.

Great, I'm not going to get home until well after midnight. Are you going to the game? damn skippy

"Could have" is not good enough. The Cubs need to start operating on a "what are they likely to do" basis, not "what could they do if everything goes well". I'm not a big Lilly guy, but you can't make decisions based on what might happen, you have to base it on what is most likely to happen. Hill might contend for the Cy Young next year. He might have an ERA over 9.00. But neither is all that likely. Murton might outproduce Miguel Cabrera next year, but he's probably not going to. Pierre might have a .375 OBP next year, but he most likely won't.

Great, I'm not going to get home until well after midnight.

DH, or PH. If they could get him to sign for 4 million to mostly platoon with Jones and pinch hit, they could limit his defensive liability. I can't believe I'm talking about the potential positives of Moises Alou returning to the Cubs right now.

And I feel that people would be more than happy if he let Ramirez walk and added Lee and Soriano, or if the replacement for Ramirez was Tejada or ARod, and he added a Jones like bat as the addition. If he lets Ramirez walks and does nothing, he'll get grilled. But as long as he does something that can be passed off as adding to the roster, he won't get killed. Lots of people want Ramirez gone, not to mention the group that isn't that desperate to see him extended. The only problem with letting ARam go is that the replacement players will all cost you something in trade. Using an example like Tejada, if Hendry trades Hill, Cedeno, and Gallagher, Hendry will hear about the fact that he gave up 3 good young players for equal production. Also, trading these young players means your pool of players to trade to fill the other holes is diminished. Attitude or not, the wisest decision is to add to ARam and not replace him. I'm all about retaining Ramirez, just trying to think of it from Hendry's perspective, and offering examples of how he can sell it to the masses.

A preliminary guess tells me the majority of the media is anti-Ramirez. And most of them would be more than fine with Hendry letting him walk. And if he replaces Ramirez with ARod or Tejada, or loses Ramirez and gains Lee and Soriano, I'd bet the majority of fans would be fine with that trade off. I think you are correct in your assessment of the media being anti-Ramirez. And the feelings about Aramis from the members of the media that I have spoken to range from he's unlikable to he's very unlikable to he's just a bad guy (like Sammy). The story goes that Moises really kept Aramis in line (behavior-wise) in 2004 - after Moises departed, Aramis was "left to his own devices." Interpret that as you will - I was given no details. In talking to my sources, I just get the sense that Aramis is not liked in that clubhouse or by management - his lackadaisical attitude has irked a lot of folks on and off the field. There just doesn't seem to be a sense of urgency in keeping him despite his great numbers. So does Hendry sign Moises Alou to a 1 year $6m deal (matching last year's salary) to get 300-400 ABs and babysit Ramirez? The general public absolutely loved Alou. I love Alou too, but that's a pretty stupid idea. Paying 6 million to fix someone's attitude? Come on. I still think that Hendry is going to resign him. If Hendry doesn't want him back, then he didn't want him back at the ASB. Ramirez's lack of hustle and supposed attitude problems didn't just pop up after the trading deadline. Keeping him through the end of the season, only to let him walk, when you could have received a great package three months earlier just doesn't make any sense. I think Hendry wants him back. The primary reason would be for 300-400 ABs of production hopefully similar to what he had in SF (OPS+ of 141 and 132) Alou didn't perform up to his last contract, and $11.5m was way too much to resign him for. 100, 113 and 128 OPS+ was not worth $9m per year, let alone $11.5m.

A preliminary guess tells me the majority of the media is anti-Ramirez. And most of them would be more than fine with Hendry letting him walk. And if he replaces Ramirez with ARod or Tejada, or loses Ramirez and gains Lee and Soriano, I'd bet the majority of fans would be fine with that trade off. I think you are correct in your assessment of the media being anti-Ramirez. And the feelings about Aramis from the members of the media that I have spoken to range from he's unlikable to he's very unlikable to he's just a bad guy (like Sammy). The story goes that Moises really kept Aramis in line (behavior-wise) in 2004 - after Moises departed, Aramis was "left to his own devices." Interpret that as you will - I was given no details. In talking to my sources, I just get the sense that Aramis is not liked in that clubhouse or by management - his lackadaisical attitude has irked a lot of folks on and off the field. There just doesn't seem to be a sense of urgency in keeping him despite his great numbers. So does Hendry sign Moises Alou to a 1 year $6m deal (matching last year's salary) to get 300-400 ABs and babysit Ramirez? The general public absolutely loved Alou.

And I feel that people would be more than happy if he let Ramirez walk and added Lee and Soriano, or if the replacement for Ramirez was Tejada or ARod, and he added a Jones like bat as the addition. If he lets Ramirez walks and does nothing, he'll get grilled. But as long as he does something that can be passed off as adding to the roster, he won't get killed. Lots of people want Ramirez gone, not to mention the group that isn't that desperate to see him extended.

Paul Lukas's Uni Watch blog confirms it. What a shame. I might have to take the 49ers and the points.

A preliminary guess tells me the majority of the media is anti-Ramirez. And most of them would be more than fine with Hendry letting him walk. And if he replaces Ramirez with ARod or Tejada, or loses Ramirez and gains Lee and Soriano, I'd bet the majority of fans would be fine with that trade off. Seems to me everyone agrees that the Cubs need ARam *and* ARod/Tejada/Soriano. Who is everyone? Clearly the media isn't included in that, as so many of them are scoffing at the idea that Hendry needs Ramirez. And many fans still harp on his hustle more than his production.

A preliminary guess tells me the majority of the media is anti-Ramirez. And most of them would be more than fine with Hendry letting him walk. And if he replaces Ramirez with ARod or Tejada, or loses Ramirez and gains Lee and Soriano, I'd bet the majority of fans would be fine with that trade off.

He'd take it a step further and talk about whoever the new 3B is an upgrade somewhere as well. He's the ultimate glass half full guy, who always expects the best. That's why he can sign a guy like Jones and only think of the upside, or acquire Izturis and talk about how he led the lead in hits for 2 months. He will only look at the best aspects of a player, and ignore the likelihood/unlikelihood of that player actually performing at his best. He has yet to plan for setbacks with any of his acquisitions. He thought of Pierre as the guy who helped Florida with the WS, and not the guy he's been the majority of his career. He thought of Rusch and Neifi as the guys who put up career numbers in limited roles, and not the failures they've been throughout their careers. He's sees the topline potential, but not the bottom rung risk.

That's a bit overly simplistic, isn't it? There's about 100 reasons why they may or may not be able to reach agreement on an extension, all of which will likely play much more of a role than his BA in any particular situation. Sure it's simplistic, but so is Hendry's managerial style. He has whined about needing guys to come through with RISP/2 outs almost as much as Baker whined for more speed in his lineup. He's clearly got the resources to keep Ramirez, if he chooses not to, it will be because he doesn't think Ramirez is clutch enough.

This is beginning to sound like the Sosa smear campaign. Is the Trib trying to drum up support for his not being resigned? It sure looks that way. Ramirez has a couple things on his side, and a couple things that don't bod well for how Hendry evaluates players. Last year he hit .293/.378/.611 with runners in scoring position. That's a 989 OPS, and quite good. His OPS dropped a little to 943, with RISP and 2 outs, still quite good. But he hit "only" .242. The 2003-2005 timeframe shows similar trends. Basically, Ramirez hits better with men on than with nobody on, and for more power. But men on/2 out his average is lower, although his power and OBP stays high (pitchers stay away from him, but when they make a mistake, he makes them pay). If Ramirez is gone, Hendry is focusing on his AVG with RISP/2 out, and April/May 2006. If Ramirez stays, Hendry is looking at the big picture a little better.

Yes. Most likely. The blind nature of the bidding process makes that impossible; the team accepts the bid without knowing the identity of the high bidder. Oh, I thought it was just blind to the opposing bidders, not the Japanese team.

The offense would have to be greatly improved. Marshall sucked this year. He won't win many games without massive improvements himself. Plus, he's as unreliable, healthwise, as any pitcher in the Cubs system. Hill should be good, but he's no lock. Then you talk of a FA as the 5th. As it is, Marshall should be no higher than 6th going into the spring. You should definitely have 5 starters you are going to rely on before him. And back to the original point, that staff would need an awesome offense to succeed. Fantastic rotation can win on little offense, but that's not going to be a fantastic rotation. He could be decent, if things work out. But "decent veteran 5th starters" don't always workout, while Marshall is going to struggle and Hill could still suffer some ups and downs.

While he could be posturing to drive up Burrell's value, this is a change from earlier statements. A GM saying there is a strong possibility that his current left fielder, who is under contract for a couple year, is going to be his left fielder, is hardly a ringing endorsement.