toonsterwu

I may look like a total idiot a year or two from now, but I really believe in a) Bruno's bat b) His ability to play short (well ... I probably won't look like an idiot on this if he isn't at short, due to the options in the system) There's definitely some reasons for concerns on Bruno, but there's some pop in the bat, and he has a loose, fluid swing with good bat speed. There's some obvious comps that can be made for what I think he could be, but those comps are too high ceiling for me to want to make them.

Alcantara has the raw tools to stick at short. Whether he develops the consistency, only time will tell. The errors are insane this year, but I'd be curious on a breakdown of the errors of how they happened (not that I expect anyone to dig through them, as I certainly won't). IIRC, the field at Jackie Robinson Ballpark isn't exactly the best.

1. Vitters' development 2. Rizzo still looks really good 3. Soler signing 4. Castro not going to jail 5. Nobody killed by crumbling Wrigley infrastructure 6. Szczur's plate discipline 7. Alcantara's development Yeah, Szczur would be close to the top of the list for me right now, in terms of positive developments this year. Not only has his discipline dramatically improved, but he's also hitting for a bit more power. Add in that the defensive reports are even better than last year's ... and the only thing left is to see him in AA, and he really should be there soon. I'd go (relative to positive developments, non-draft and signings related) 1. Szczur's significantly improved discipline 2. Vitter's improvement 3. Lake's improvement (power was down last month, though) 4. Javier Baez's play. Still wonder if he ends up at 3rd. Yes, he was a stud prospect, but the MWL isn't exactly a cakewalk for hitters. 5. Alcanatara's development Close 6th, but SSS - Candelario's play in shortseason so far On the flip side, well ... name a pitcher and you can probably go with that. But since I'm in a list-making mood, negative things, non-draft and signings related 1. Brett Jackson's awful K's - I still like Brett, but it's been bad. Furthermore, he's had two awful stretches where he K'd close to 50% (which also speaks to the fact that he's been passable, with K's, during part of the season ... which actually makes it more frustrating). 2. McNutt - uh ... we getting near pen time? 3. Rhee - He actually didn't get off to a bad start (K rate was decent in April). The GB rate has increased, but the diving K rate has killed him. 4. Torreyes and Cates struggles - lumping them together because they were both intriguing raw assets from trades. 5. Could go a number of ways on the last one. On an individual level, Ben Wells TJ is disappointing, but on a general level, the fact that we haven't really had an intriguing young, upside arm step forward is the most disappointing thing. The Latin American "class" of Peralta/Liria/Cruz/Paulino haven't really panned out, and Rosario, much as he is intriguing, well, put it this way, I still have my doubts he's a starter.

(@Vinestal) 6/29/12 8:05 PM @dsmaples is that why you haven't started a game this year? that sucks, hope it gets better soon. I'm looking forward to seeing u in action. So I guess his back has been his issue. I've not really seen this reported elsewhere so I figured it was worth posting. Didn't he have back problems this spring? Or am I thinking of someone else? If it was Dillon, then the fact that it's lingered this long is ... troubling.

Yes. I've long thought Alberto Cabrera had closer potential. The fastball/slider combination isn't as good as Marmol's when Marmol was at it's peak ... but if he can command it better than Marmol, then he could have better staying power. I've also long thought that there was too much excuse-making for Dolis' inability to consistently whiff bats at a high rate - I just don't know if his slider will ever be consistent enough (but I haven't followed all that closely this year). I think Cabrera's the top pen arm (currently in said role ... although tbh, I think I'd take Cabrera over McNutt in the pen) in the system, with Hatley/Zych a good notch behind him.

Hmm ... interesting question in the Q&A with JJ Cooper. So ... Brett Jackson's too patient for his skillset? That's ... interesting.

Crap ... it's hot sheet again? Meant to get in some questions. Nice to see Szczur's nice run getting recognized. He really should be in AA and getting primed for a potential big league look in late 2013.

Random thoughts - Wood as a middle-rotation type in 2013? I've started to mildly turn the corner on him ... but I'm just not sure he'll be that good by next year. He's a decent arm to develop at the back end and hope he becomes a mid-rotation arm down the line. What's the quality of the young-ish starter in the majors in this hypothetical Garza deal? Because it's hard for me to imagine getting 2 quality, ready for the big arms in a Garza deal. I'm starting to question if we can land ... the equivalent of what we gave up for Garza (borderline top 50 prospect arm, a 70-100 prospect with a high ceiling, and 2 upper level assets). I think so, and all it takes is one team, but getting 2 quality upper level arms? Seems ... hopeful, and I hope you might be right. If we can't get two high quality and high upside arms for Garza, why on earth would we trade him? I seriously don't get it. In your world, we're trading Garza for someone who is not Garza, but is younger? Doesn't make sense at all. Huh? I said I questioned whether or not we could get a similar deal to what we gave up, and said probably. I never said I would make that trade if it was the only option available. Also ... huh a 2nd time. I question whether or not we can get two high quality upper level (ready for the bigs, or just about) arms. There simply haven't that many trades that net two high quality upper level starting caliber arms. Now, each trade exists within it's own environment, but we can use past trades as ... measuring sticks. The Gio Gonzalez trade didn't net two high quality upper level arms - it netted one intriguing upper level arm with upside (Peacock), another upper level arm that produced but had limited stuff and ceiling (Milone), a high upside lower level arm (Cole), and a high upside bat. The Latos trade didn't land that (granted, they weren't really looking). The Cahill trade didn't net that 2nd starting caliber upper level arm - Ryan Cook's a very nice pen arm, but not a starter. The one trade, off the top, that netted two quality upper level arms was the Mike Adams trade, with Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland. It's not impossible to net two high quality upper level arms in a package for a deal, but it just doesn't happen that much with the way teams protect arms. Even the much hoped for trade packages that people hope for don't focus on two high quality upper level arms. They tend to focus on guys like Sanchez, Nicolino, Syndegaard (and my preference would be Sanchez/Syndegaard of that trio, three A ball arms with big ceilings).

Szczur seems to get lost in the discussion of our prospects these days. It's not hard to imagine him as a starting CF for the Cubs in late 2013/start 2014 and addressing a hole at the top of a lineup. what exactly is szczur's defense like in CF these days? Last I heard, he was looking fairly good. I've said before that I think Szczur's raw athleticism was a touch over-hyped, but range/arm speed for CF have always been good, and last I heard, he was learning how to read the ball better/take better routes. I don't know if he's a plus CF, but he's looking more and more like ... Brett Gardner with a touch more upside, which ... could be very useful, offensively and defensively.

I think you're too ready to punt away next year and maybe even the year after. A line-up with Headley, Castro, Rizzo, DeJesus, Soriano and Barney would be pretty good. If Soto can rebound and with an upgrade in CF, that's a team that can compete offensively. Now, of course, we don't know what it would take to get Headley. Two excellent prospects or 3 good prospects? I would do it, most likely. A guy like Headley doesn't come around all that often and Vitters and Lake are quite unlikely to match his production. I hope a lineup like that could compete in 2013, if we did go after Headley, but a) It's not impossible to envision a scenario where Rizzo struggles a bit. b) It's also not hard to imagine as scenario where Soriano takes a key step back. Then ... you get into rotation questions. Assuming you keep Garza, you really probably need a top FA starter, and coming off a bad season, who is coming here? The pen still needs to be re-worked. 2014 ... now I can imagine some scenarios there if we went after Headley. 2013 just seems a bit tough. Question is whether or not the cost, in prospects, is worth it. Actually, another legitimate question is whether or not we have the prospects to make a deal that they would be intrigued with, assuming Baez, Soler are off limits.

Szczur seems to get lost in the discussion of our prospects these days. It's not hard to imagine him as a starting CF for the Cubs in late 2013/start 2014 and addressing a hole at the top of a lineup.

There was that debate in one of these threads earlier this year, and there's a reason I never gave up on him completely. I don't know his velo now (and I'd be curious to find out what it's been), but the fastball was always there last year and going to the pen could relieve him of some of the mechanical issues that bothered him as a starter. I'd be really curious to find out reports on how he's looking. Been too busy to pay attention, but the one hope I had with a pen move is that it might allow him to concentrate on the slider. If he can 92-94 with a solid slider, there's still some hope that we can get some value out of him.

Random thoughts - Wood as a middle-rotation type in 2013? I've started to mildly turn the corner on him ... but I'm just not sure he'll be that good by next year. He's a decent arm to develop at the back end and hope he becomes a mid-rotation arm down the line. What's the quality of the young-ish starter in the majors in this hypothetical Garza deal? Because it's hard for me to imagine getting 2 quality, ready for the big arms in a Garza deal. I'm starting to question if we can land ... the equivalent of what we gave up for Garza (borderline top 50 prospect arm, a 70-100 prospect with a high ceiling, and 2 upper level assets). I think so, and all it takes is one team, but getting 2 quality upper level arms? Seems ... hopeful, and I hope you might be right.

I'm a big, big fan of Headley. I think dew makes a valid point above - Headley's quality, for the position, is very, very good, and perhaps a bit under-rated. Granted, there is a level of assumption that he will definitely hit away from Petco - there have been ex-Padres of recent past that did not do that. That said ... my hunch is that he hits much better with a different home park ... and that he might hit for more power (IIRC, he specifically adjusted his swing to compensate for issues at Petco). Add in solid defensive work at 3rd, and well ... Josh Vitters best case might be Headley, and that's a few years down the road, and the chances of Vitters defense at 3rd being as solid as Headley seems slim. All that said ... unless the price is right, I don't think this makes much sense for the organization right now. And the chances of the price being right seems slim, especially considering the ownership situation in San Diego is still unsettled (last I checked). For me, let's leave aside what Theo or Jed might think for a moment. Sure, it's their decision in the end, and our opinions don't matter, but ... Headley will be in his age 29 season next year. Even if the Cubs go all-out, it's hard to imagine this team being competitive next year for a playoff spot. I hope I'm wrong ... but it seems unlikely. Too many holes, too few upper level pieces. Even if we imagine them keeping Garza, there'd still be a need for a rotation arm, maybe wasting money on prime help, maybe another top of the order bat, and maybe another anchor bat in the middle of the lineup, in terms of major issues. I've always thought 2014 was the first realistic year for the start of the window. At that point, it's Headley's age 30 season. Realistically, the window can start in 2014, but a lot has to go right for this club to be a, in the thick of the chase playoff club. Most of our prime assets would still be in the minors - the main assets are in Low A right now, and it's far more likely that if they develop, that they are in AAA and not the majors. So ... we might be looking at 2015. I like Headley a ton, but would giving up a prime package of prospects for him make sense when he might only have 1-3 top years left? Sure ... if we in it all in that 1-3 year span, then it'd be worth it, but while I have some questions about this regime in terms of farm development (still think they are a bit over-hyped in that regards, and I'm looking at both the Red Sox and Padres systems - to be clear, I'm not saying they are bad either, just a bit over-hyped), one thing they have constantly talked is the need to go by a process. Theo talked about how they lost sight of that in Boston in some respects. In this case, if they follow some sort of process that focuses on talent, timeline, and club's situation - they really shouldn't take the gamble (unless the price is right). This has nothing to do with Vitters or Lake, both of whom I'm still in a wait and see mode on, and as noted above, guys like Baez/Candelario are likely in the minors in 2014. Could I imagine a situation where we could add Headley (at the expected high cost) and enough pieces to be competitive right away? Sure ... but a lot has to go right, and there would have to be money they are willing to spend. If the price, in terms of prospects, somehow worked in our favor (and I have no idea what that price would be to make it amenable for me ... just haven't pondered it), then sure, you go for it, see what he adds to the mix for a year, and re-evaluate where you are at that point.

Nice ... wouldn't mind seeing him fast-tracked a bit more this year if he shows well in limited outings in Peoria.

Sure, but that's a lot of reports this year putting him in the high-80's this year. I know at least one other public report (I believe Arguello at CubsDen saw him this year and had him at 88-90, with a couple balls a tick higher, which jived with the comments he got from Fleita). Amongst others, I know a road game where he was reportedly topping out at 90.

I don't think Lake is out of the question either. That's true too, as KG noted something recently about how scouts thought he had developed his offensive approach a bit. Still taking more of a wait and see though - the BB rate has slipped a fair amount in June (and really, the slip started mid-May).

I don't know if it was posted, and since I don't actually have BP, I don't think I should cut and paste what someone posted on TCR, but reading KG's comments on Burke from the MWL ASG, and how he was sitting high 80's in a short stint, makes me a bit wary of getting too excited on Kyler. I really hope he finds some juice on that fastball, but there's been a lot of reports this year where he's only topping out in the low 90's. Doesn't mean he's not a semi-intriguing arm, but I think some of the high expectations of the past, largely off of AzPhil's excitement, should probably be tempered a bit.

Passed through the area about ... 5 years back? Can't recall exactly, but to the best of my recollection (and my folks), the area had changed a bit, with some new developments (and I think a new Elementary school? ... my folks thought there was an extra one that wasn't there before ... ). It's a nice little town, and for those that work at NASA, it's close enough to work while being it's own community.

Nah, sorry, was speaking more in a general sense. Passed through the area a bit in the past, but not anymore. Had a student go there. I guess I shouldn't, what's the old saying, cast stones, or whatever. I'm sure I've made some meathead comments before.

Honestly, if this power development is "real", and not some sort of fluke start, Candelario has a very good case to be top 100. That said, early in the year. The way Amaya is hitting in the early-goings also piques some interest. Curious what sort of power he shows this year. Granted, NWL, but how much power Amaya had, along with his position, were two of the main questions on him.

Someone mentioned that pitch data below AA isn't accurate (may have been Nate Baliva).

Didn't AzPhil always compare him to Jeffry Antigua? Off the top, I think Del Valle's breaking ball is probably a tinge better than Kirk's, but Kirk has a better overall arsenal.

Really? If he's average offensively and below average offensively you think that would make up for it? c'mon man ... you know what I wrote ... admittedly, I made a typo and should've said "could account for any defensive shortcomings", not should.

MIF for now ... so far away with some decent defensive reports, so sure, keep him there. His ceiling lifts that group to a possible B+ for me, I guess, because while I love some of the lower level guys, they are lower level guys that are far away, and Hernandez had one good and one bad month in Peoria. If you moved Baez to the CIF mix, then that group's a rock solid A for me, with MIF more of B. But that's me, and it's too early to shift Baez off of any MIF considerations.