toonsterwu

I'll get back to the other teams later (trying to multi-task on a Saturday night), but ... really? You think we could get a group of 3 from another team that is comparable to Martinez/Wong/Jenkins/Rosenthal (I really don't think we could get that in a Garza deal ... maybe 3 of the 4 ... but not all 4). I'm curious which team you are thinking of? I mean, everyone views guys differently, so I can understand it somewhat, but I'm fairly curious who? That's two potential "2" or better starters (Martinez/Jenkins), 2 upper level starting pitchers (Martinez/Rosenthal), 1 upper level ready positional asset (Wong). If that foursome came down as a legitimate offer, I would jump for joy over that package. Maybe it doesn't pan out down the line, but that would be a package I would easily sign up for, with the added boost of stripping away a key rivals system. There might be one or two teams that I could think of that could offer a comparable package, so maybe you wait on other offers, but dang, that's a monster deal. I am a bit surprised that you think a Barnes/Bradley Jr./Owens package is too much, but don't think this one is.

It really sucks to see how fast they reloaded, and to see us always hoping on ceiling. They were a pretty lousy system, I want to say, 4 years ago? Now, they have an excellent system, with an excellent top shelf, and a good array of 2nd tier arms and bats.

He's really polished up a lot of stuff this year. The fastball command has improved. The secondary stuff has improved (not sure how the change-up has looked, but the curveball, which always had potential, is supposedly much sharper and more consistent this year). This isn't the raw hard thrower from last year. Still a lot of work to go, but I think he's going to get every chance to stick in the rotation, and as of now, I'd take him as the top guy in a Garza deal. But that's me. He doesn't have ace ceiling (Tyrell might ... might have that down the line), but he's got "2" potential.

As much as I love talking about what I would like, I would be shocked, even with Teheran's value being down, if the Braves parted with Delgado and Teheran. Just doesn't seem like a Frank Wren move, and if they did that, I imagine they would go after Greinke. Dodgers ... maybe I could see that. Don't know how Colletti will act with new management. I think it's probably a bit of on the high end (which is obviously great for us if it happened).

Going to the games in a couple weeks when they're in Grand Rapids. Planned on taking the camcorder/camera. Will video from the dugout area suit? That'd be awesome if you could.

I think we almost have to prioritize pitching unless it's an elite bat. As good as Wong is, and a nice top of the order 2nd baseman would be sweet, would it justify passing on front of the rotation potential in a guy like Martinez, who is in AA, or a guy like Jenkins, whose ceiling might be higher than Shelby's, but is farther away? Now, it'd be great if we could get Wong to go with one of them, but push came to shove, I'd really have to lean pitching unless it's an elite bat. The recent draft was interesting, and Underwood/Blackburn offer a lot of intrigue, but are far away. I guess something like Wong/Rosenthal would be interesting, but that doesn't significantly improve the pitching situation for our system. I would hope that the Garza trade is able to improve the pitching outlook in the system, as he's really the only guy that could net that high caliber arm, unless you get lucky on a Chris Archer type. raw, but high upside flyer.

Edit: NVM. I thought you were talking about a ranking of Geiger. Just realized you were talking about this being his 8th homer. Haha. I guess we need to take the wait and see on him, to see if this is progress or just an insane streak. I think just about all of our top 8's, in some order, will be Baez, Soler, Almora, Brett, Candelario, Vitters, Szczur, and Lake. I'm taking a big wait and see on putting Lake there. A lot of early excitement, but hearing some fairly mediocre reports on approach. I mean, he's not far off from 8, but I'm not ready to lock him into the top 10 yet. On Geiger, last time I checked, the BABIP wasn't insanely high. Tbh, I'd like to know how the swing looks, since it's still low A pitching. Oh, gave you a ... partial response in the Garza thread. Will be back later and try the rest.

Well, I don't know all the systems all that well off the top, so just giving it a spin cycle, more thoughts than anything. Feel free to tell me if I'm crazy on anything. Yanks - There simply isn't enough guys healthy right now to justify making this deal. The more I think about, unless we are getting an elite bat in return, we simply have to lean arms if at all possible. Orioles - I love Zach Britton. To be fair, his ceiling isn't significantly higher than Barnes (but I noted above, I don't dislike Barnes as the top chip ... ). I'd be fine with him as a top chip. It's getting to the point where Chris Tillman might have rehabbed his value. Matt Barnes ceiling is basically the same, and Tillman's more polished. The Orioles problem is ... I can't figure out a legitimate 2nd asset, assuming Bundy/Machado are off-limits, unless they put in Tillman and Britton, which I doubt. I don't know how I feel about Matusz as a 2nd asset - the fastball velo is there, and the secondary stuff is still there ... but something seems off. The issue here is ... will Britton and Tillman prove themselves, taking the Orioles away from the SP market? It's not impossible, although I think push came to shove, they'd probably part with one of them for the right arm. Cardinals - Assuming Shelby and Oscar Taveras are off-limits, I still think a possible deal can be done if they put in Carlos Martinez or Tyrell Jenkins (I'd probably put Martinez ahead of Jenkins as of now). There's a lot of options to put together a deal. I've always liked Joe Kelly more than most, and he's a guy who could step in, although the ceiling isn't high as a starter (Still think he could be an electric pen arm). There's pitching and some positional assets that could fill out a deal. There's really a lot of options here, and I'm hardpressed to see them say no to Shelby, OT, Martinez, Jenkins IF they were trying hard to add a pitcher to make a push, particularly since they've added Wacha to the mix. Rangers - I can dream on Profar, but that ain't happening. You know, depending on what they thought about Vitters defensive future at 3rd, I wouldn't rule out a guy like Mike Olt as a key piece. You know, as good as their system is, it's not the greatest fit due to my opinion on their arms. I wonder if they would part with Derek Holland? Leaving Holland aside for a moment, I guess I'd want an arm from that Buckel/Ramirez/Perez group. I don't love Perez, but there's enough to work with. To be honest, if Holland is off-limits, I don't know if I wouldn't push for two arms from that Buckel/Ramirez/Perez group to go with say, a Mike Olt. It's not like these guys have huge ceilings - all three arms are really mid-rotation ceiling types, maybe a tick better on a good year. Not saying the Rangers would do that ... just not sure that the system's talent meshes with us (for example, really like Rougned Odor, but there's so much middle infield depth, I don't see a point in going that way. There's a lot of guys to fill out as 2nd/3rd pieces to a deal ... but maybe I'm underrating their arms. Uh, gotta step away a bit.

Edit: NVM. I thought you were talking about a ranking of Geiger. Just realized you were talking about this being his 8th homer.

So Dustin Geiger with a homer. I wonder where he'll end up on end of season lists. A lot will obviously depend on how he finishes, but top 20 isn't out of the question. IIRC, last year, there was some concern on his swing length and some other mechanical issues (I think). I wonder if that's improved. That said, he's really not a 3rd baseman. I guess you can keep him at 3rd if there isn't a better option, but Stephen Bruno could perhaps join that grouping and perhaps man 3rd in Daytona next year. Would be a very interesting corner OF bat prospect if the bat continues to produce.

I may like a guy and prefer a guy, but I try my damn best to be fair (easier said than done) if I work on a rankings list. I may come up with some crazy stuff at times (for example, when I made a list after 2008, I had Jay Jackson far higher than most ... for a couple years, I felt great about it ... now ... uh that list doesn't exist ... a more recent example would be Marco's placement last year for me, which to this day, I still say is justified considering the outlook of the system and the raw tools Marco had - to be fair, most of the positive stuff that was said about him hasn't been off ... except for one thing, which is what is troubling me more than anything), but Alcantara's defensive ceiling (and I've said this before) might be higher than Marco's, and he's performing 2 levels higher. If you ask me who I do like more, long run, somewhat "gut feel"? I'd go Marco. I love that bat speed. Absolutely love it. If you ask me who I'd rank higher, it's easily Alcantara right now. Marco, Torreyes, and others would slide in behind Alcantara for me as of now, but where, I don't know. I half am leaning towards Pierce Johnson in our top 10, and I didn't feel that way a month ago. I mean, if I had to finish out a top 10 right now, it'd go Baez, Soler, Candelario, Almora, Brett Jackson, Vitters, Szczur, Alcantara, P. Johnson, and perhaps a bit out of LF, Robert Whitenack. So, might as well explain Whitenack in my top 10, before getting some queries on that. It's year 1 back from TJ. He still shows good sink, and velo reports that I've heard have him topping around 92/93, perhaps not as good as where it was last year. But ... considering this is Year 1 back from TJ, and rather fast at that, it seems like a big positive in his overall development. That plus fastball gives him a mid-rotation ceiling and he'll be in the upper levels. I think everything after the top 7 is a bit jumbled for me as of now, and a potentially upper level guy in 2013 with a plus fastball is intriguing enough, and I would hold out hope that Year 2 would be better. Haven't heard a lot on how his change and breaking ball look as of now, but I imagine it's probably still in that average, to slightly above average range (on good days).

Oh, I don't think there's a chance that they would fork over Barnes/Bradley Jr./Owens in a package. Just saying as the third piece, I'd be more intrigued with Owens. Kalish ... I have mixed feelings about. The first is ... does he make sense. He'll be 25 next year, unless I'm mistaken, with 5 years of team-control left. He's not exactly a big time corner slugger, unless there's late developing power. Good power, good approach. Do you go for this type of guy as the 2nd piece to a deal? Maybe. I actually haven't thought about Kalish in a long time, so maybe. At first glance, I'd understand it from a value perspective, don't know if I'd love it. _____ It's not that I don't like Barnes. I do. It's just, I don't love Barnes. I know a lot of people have jumped their level of intrigue on him. I think things will be a bit clearer on what he is as he works through this tough patch in A+ right now. I'm hoping to make it out and catch a game, but I don't know if I will have time. I guess, put it this way - some people are talking about Barnes and Bradley Jr. as elite chips, and I'm just not sure I'm buying it yet. On Barnes - He's still working on his changeup, which is more average, with some above average potential (and in that respect, I'm not that bothered by his tough stretch ... sounds like he's toying with his pitches in Salem, trying to develop them). The curve still, unless there's new reports suggesting otherwise, seems more pitch with above average ceiling. Maybe I'm completely off. You know, the positive reports on Pierce Johnson don't sound all that different from Matt Barnes. ____ In saying all this, we're leaving out one simple thing. Any Boston deal, we would hope would have Barnes, but whether or not Boston would part with their one SP prospect arm that could be ready in a couple years ... well, it's not a lock considering Garza would add future costs to an already high payroll. I think they'd be more apt to part with Bradley Jr. than Barnes, but Barnes is significantly more important to us.

Ehh, he had 52 errors last year in 97 games, compared to his 34 in 78 games this year. It does look like his fielding % is down a bit at SS (from .918 last season to .905 this year) if Baseball Reference can be believed. Would he crack our top 25 at this point? Arismendy? I'd be surprised if he isn't a solid top 20 on most lists. Considering age, tools, and performance this year ... hard for me to think he's not top 20, and I could see a case for him top 15 depending on how he ends the season (and probably will be heavily influenced, for me, by how that BB rate looks down the stretch). Let's see ... been awhile since I hammered out a list ... Baez, Soler, Candelario, Almora (assuming he signs), Brett Jackson, Vitters, Szczur would be my top 7. Can't think of anyone else that deserves to go higher. I think I could probably buy Alcantara as high as 8. I'm just not certain how high Johnson/Blackburn/Underwood should go. But now that I think about it, I think he's probably solid top 15 as of now.

To be honest, forgot about him for a second, so thinking about this as I go along ... Do I like him individually? Heck yes. I think he has a tick better than mid-rotation ceiling for a lefty, which is very, very good (and I also understand that I open myself up for some criticism, as there have been lefties with plus change, 90-92 fastball that I wasn't high on, but if Owens can command his fastball, he could dominate). But ... do I like him in a deal like this? It depends. Hey this is just me, and maybe this doesn't make that much sense considering I do like him. But ... as a 2nd piece to a deal like this, I'm not sure I'm all that enthused. I guess ... it's not backbreaking if I like the top piece, but I don't love Barnes and I half wonder if Barnes and Bradley, if offered, would be a case of a team selling high on their value (still not sure what Bradley is to be honest ... I'm just not sure I buy him as an top bat but the numbers are that good this year). If we're talking Barnes, Bradley (or a comparable, non-Bogaerts piece, although I'm blanking on who), AND Owens ... I'd be fine with that.

Thing is ... who? Matt Barnes and Jackie Bradley Jr. is a ... nice package, but ... not exactly jaw-dropping that we have to make the deal now, IMO, particularly since it'd be better if the top two prospects in a deal were arms. After Barnes ... unless we are offered Bard (and I think Cashner has a better chance to stick as a starter than Bard ... the Sox are fairly thin in arms (we're fairly similar systems in terms of the types of talent and where they are)), there simply isn't much arm wise. I mean, Ranaudo's hurt, Britton's lost a lot of luster from a couple years ago, and well, everyone's got intriguing low level upside arms. And I'm still not all that sure that Barnes has legitimate front of the rotation ceiling. Still taking a wait and see on Barnes as anything more than a mid-rotation ceiling type arm.. Now, if they put in Bogaerts, then sure, forget about an arm and take a potentially elite bat and figure out where he goes later, but I have my doubts Bogaerts is available (much as I really doubt he makes it as a shortstop, they'll keep him there for now, and if they have to, RF or 2nd may be options). Don't get me wrong, I could see this sort of trade come down the pike. I'm not all that enthused with it, but could see it, and maybe they pull the trigger. Just don't know if it's a situation where we should pull the trigger now instead of waiting to see if the market develops. Some sort of injury in the next month could reshape things in regards to teams that need arms. Just don't know if this is a must-do package to say that we need to make a trade now.

That is odd. I guess they could be stretching him out (they could probably fit a piggyback/long man in there with Peralta, Cates, or Concepcion, all three occasionally having trouble working deep), but it almost feels like they don't know what to do with Antigua.

I never really found fault with the crux of Law's critique on Szczur, namely that his approach and swing might not be conducive to power. Thought the Pierre comp was ridiculous. The plus side is, he had been hitting for better power since April. If he can got on a little hot streak again in Daytona, he really needs to head to Tennessee soon. Ha got a nice long look, and defensively, there's a lot to like, but Szczur's closer to helping and Ha can still get AB's.

Well, he deserved a bump. Considering his age, might as well see if he sinks or swims in the AA pen. If the velo reports are still in the 90's, could be an intriguing pen lefty.

I think it's time for McNutt to go to the pen. Maybe that's reactionary frustration, and maybe he should be given more time considering his ceiling, but I'm just not sure he has it to be a starter. There's definitely room in Iowa's rotation to move Struck up. Rusin, Raley, Wells, Coleman get spots. They've been piecing together the 5th spot. As an aside, I'd really like to hear how Jay Jackson's slider is looking these days. Once upon a time, I thought Jay Jackson could be a late inning arm. Of course, back then, I was still excited about him as a starter.

Not the best day for me to make it here to talk about Stephen Bruno, but let me just reiterate how big a fan I am of Bruno's potential. Sort of sucks that he's in our system in that I think he can play short, but considering he's not that much younger than Starlin, well his future in our system isn't there. A bit concerned about the lack of walks so far, so that'll be something to watch, but the kid can hit, he's got pop in the bat, and he should be solid defensively at 2nd. There's an obvious comp that I won't make (obviously in saying it ... I sort of did anyways) as the ceiling is too high for me to want to make the comp, but I'm a big, big fan. To be honest, I wouldn't mind seeing him in Peoria later this year if he keeps hitting. With his versatility, there's got to be a way to find him some AB's if they wanted to move him up. _____ Geiger's arm could make him a candidate for RF if the bat develops. At least, off the top, I think he has a good arm. _____ Sappelt's on a nice little run. If he does well down the stretch, might as well and give him a late look and keep him in the picture in 2013. I think he's more of a Sam Fuld type, but in a rebuilding year ... well ... if it keeps Campana on the bench, I'm game as a fan.

We'll see how they assess Vitters at the end of the season if he continues this run since a) he'd basically have a nearly full season of playing this well and b) they'll actually confer with multiple scouts about him and won't be operating on old scouting reports (like they *possibly* are currently). That's my hunch too on some of the comments. I think Vitters was somewhat off the radar for them. I'm not the biggest Vitters fan, but he's definitely improved this year.

Random thoughts: I'd love to see the Indians in on Bryan LaHair, but I just don't see a good trade the Cubs can swing with them for Garza that would seem to make sense for both sides. There simply isn't enough arm talent, and heck, unless Fransico Lindor is available, it isn't as if there's a high quantity of top quality. The Reds, on the other hand, could be interesting. I don't know if there's many arms that I really love there, off the top, but some of their young arms have progressed and they could probably put together a nice arms package. If we could get, say, Corcino and Cingrani, that'd be an intriguing start to the package. There's some other combinations of prospects to start a package that could be intriguing, but I tend to think that it'd be hard to accept a deal without those two. For better or worse, we need arms, and unless the positional chip is elite coming back, I'd rather focus on arms. If the Diamondbacks forked over one of their elite arms, they'd jumpt to the top of the list. Without one of Bauer/Skaggs/Bradley, would 2 guys from say, Corbin/Chafin/Holmberg be enough? I guess ... if we could get say, a Matt Davidson out of the deal, and 2 arms from their 2nd tier, it wouldn't be bad, but I'd hope for better. It would sort of suck to see Matt Garza in a Cardinals uniform ... but, assuming Miller/Taveras aren't offered, if we could get say, Martinez and say, Trevor Rosenthal or Tyrell Jenkins ... this would be up there amongst the trade options we've been discussing. I am half curious to see how the Pirates staff does the next few weeks. I half wonder if a guy from McDonald/Bedard/Burnett/Lincoln struggle, if they might consider going for pitching. If so, they would bring a ton to the table in terms of trade potential. Their offensive needs are far bigger, though, and I gotta think the priority will be there.

Very good post, but I do have a question. Why is Garza being 31/32 when we get really good a bad thing? Would it be ideal for him to be 26/27? Sure, but he could well still be a very good pitcher at that point and hopefully we'd have somebody (maybe a Blackburn or Underwood) close to taking his place at the top of the rotation by then. I wouldn't go out and acquire Garza at 31/32, but since he's on the team now I wouldn't trade him for less than very good value just because he won't be at the ideal age when we decide to start trying again. It isn't a bad thing, but when you combo that with the lack of assets in the system at this time, plus the fact that he'll likely be close to the end of a deal at a high cost at that time, and I think there's some justification there to push for a trade. While we are a big market, the "small market mentality" of assessing a core group of prospects at relative similar stages should still be a, IMO, for lack of a better term right now, guiding factor since they've gone down a full rebuild path. I mean, look, I'm not saying we take guys whose absolute ceilings are mid-rotation (and who likely are more end of the rotation guys ... say a Dallas Beeler type, who entering the year, looked like he had fringe mid-rotation ceiling, but looks very much like an end of the rotation arm right now). I'm not saying you take any deal that has a decent upper level arm. There has to be ... quality enough upside to justify the risk (for example, I think Zach Britton would be worth the risk, if the right 2nd piece was involved and he was cleared, but obviously, some may disagree), but I have my doubts that we can land a front of the rotation, upper minors starter in a trade. If so, I'll be glad to be wrong, but I do think there is enough justification, for the above reasons, to deal Garza if we get a package roughly akin to what I noted (preferably better, but that's a baseline, I guess).

We're sort of stuck in no man's land with Garza. Yes, there's one more year, but his peripherals aren't bad this year (K rate is a bit down ... looking at the numbers, he is more fastball prone, although not like his Tampa Bay days), and the front office is probably basing it's demands off of positive statistics, and the fact that he has AL East experience, which is understandable. That said, it's somewhat hard to imagine him having, hypothetically, noticeably better value a year from now unless he surprises and takes it to a notch above last year's, because a minimal rise would be balanced by less control (all this is said while noting the fact that ... all it takes is one team to throw any discussions out of whack). The team's timeline also doesn't fit Garza all that well for a contract extension,. Even taking a positive case scenario where we are competitive by 2014, and pushing for a playoff berth by 2015, Garza would be 31/32 when we are pushing, at the end of his prime, and likely in the midst of some expensive years on a contract extension. Add in that the team's lack of upper level pitching talent doesn't really mesh all that well with the current ready, or close to ready crop of positional guys, and the reinforcements/reinforcement potential isn't there unless we strip the lower levels. Factor in that some of the veterans on the squad will likely be stripped for more pieces (Marmol's rebound could be a nice thing ... if he keeps this up, maybe a team gives up something of note in late July), and the timing just doesn't work all that well for us in a Garza scenario. Ideally, we'd get one upper level pitching prospect with legitimate front of the rotation, borderline ace potential ... but who is that guy? I can't think of many guys being mentioned amongst teams legitimately targeting pitching (that is being speculated upon as of now) who would be a legitimate front of the rotation, borderline ace potential option that doesn't have some significant questions about them. So ... do you go for upside further away, or do you go for slightly lower upside that's close to ready/ready right now? A legit "2" type, even a "2/3" type in the upper levels of the minors can often carry high value in trade talks. I think it'd be tough to simply take two high upside A ball arms in a deal like this - the risk is too great that you probably want to sacrifice some ceiling to make sure the guys you get back could potentially provide something. The easy answer is that perhaps you focus on an upper level guy with a good ceiling, solid mid-rotation ceiling or a bit better and target a high upside arm in the lower levels as the 2nd piece. Perhaps instead of targeting 2 of the young A ball arms for the Blue Jays (just offering a hypothetical), you target someone like John Stilson, if he's pitching well in AA, someone who offers some relative safety as a potential pen option but still has a mid-rotation ceiling, to go with one of the young guns (and more).

Despite the fact that he's been in free fall for over a month, interesting that the players voted him in. They're smarter than just blindly looking at a stat line. Is it just a testament to how weak the crop is beyond Votto? There has to be some NL 1st baseman besides Votto who hasn't been God awful for the past month. And then theres this from yesterday @Rotoworld_BB: Votto leaves game with undisclosed injury http://t.co/hciIUnOC any chance of him hitting the DL? Just sayin. If LaHair STARTS the ASG ... I'll have a good chuckle.