toonsterwu

A lot of tough decisions for the Cubs this winter, as so many guys are lumped together. My take as of today - Must Protect - Brett Jackson. As disappointing as his season has been, there's power, there's walks, and there's decent-solid defense. Maybe he doesn't develop into a core asset for the future, but he's at least a useful asset as we rebuild. Tier 2- a) Trey McNutt. There's still enough power stuff to keep him around. If his breaking ball tightens, he might become the top late inning arm in the system, ahead of Cabrera and Hatley. It seems likely, IMO, that, if he shows well out of the pen, someone would pluck him. b) Robert Whitenack - The power stuff seems to be coming back. It's too tantalizing an option to let go if you have the space, a potential upper level sinkerballer with decent secondary options. I wonder if someone plucks him if his sinker velocity is there. c) Jose Rosario - He's having too good of a season and has too much intriguing potential to let go. The problem with putting him higher is, is he a lock to be plucked? In some respects, he might be the type of guy that definitely gets plucked (young, has a heater of an arm), someone you stash for a year and send back to the minors next. I might slide him up a notch. As of now, I'd personally hope that the above 4 are all protected. Tier 3 a) Brooks Raley - I never had an issue with Raley when uh ... I forget ... the other poster was around (the issue was more who and what to value). Raley has jumped ahead of Rusin as the better finesse lefty and should be considered as a possible cheap upper level arm that can fill roles. Hard to see him getting plucked, but not impossible. b) Starling Peralta - If there's a mover in the final few months, it could be Peralta. He's a borderline protect as of now, IMO, but a strong finish could put him in a similar dynamic as Rosario, a young fireballer who could catch attention. c) Nick Struck - He's a decent upper level starting arm. He's right on the borderline as a guy who might get plucked - he's not like Dae-Eun Rhee last year (too far away), and he's produced, along with being young. The flip side is he doesn't have a huge ceiling as a starter. It's a tough call. Watch-list 1. Logan Watkins - He's had another summer surge, but he's still more of a UTIL projection, making him always in the netherlands in regards to being protected. On one side is an argument for upper level depth, and his up the middle ability to play all three spots is useful. On the flip side is ... his ability/lack of ceiling. 2. Marcus Hatley - The problem is, I have a hard time seeing them protect a lot of power righty pen options. 3. Jay Jackson - He's reborn. But ... same issue as Hatley. I'd like to keep him around, but how many righty pen arms can you protect? 4. Austin Kirk - Another soft-tossing lefty. Who gets protected and who doesn't will be an interesting decision, but he produces. Thing is ... who takes a young lefty in A+ with his "stuff" and puts it on the big league roster? Seems like the type of guy that you risk exposing, and if he gets taken, you wish him the best and move on. 5. Frank Batista - See above two, but he doesn't have their fastballs. The type of guy where, if he gets plucked, you say to yourself, okay, we lost a possible middle relief arm/borderline setup type. Time to move on. 6. Dae-Eun Rhee - Fastball hasn't been as good, making him more of an end of the rotation arm/middle reliever type. I understood why he wasn't protected last year, but he shouldn't be protected this year as of now. 7. Chris Rusin - It'd be nice to protect him, but you can't protect all your soft-tossing lefties. 8. Kyler Burke - Protecting him would be nice. The issue is that there's a lot of lefties to protect, and his stuff isn't what we hoped for, and he's more of a finesse lefty. Considering how far away he is ... it seems like the type of gamble you make in these decisions to not protect him. Problem is, he could simply walk. 9. Zach Rosscup - A darkhorse to keep in mind, if the reports of his pen velocity earlier shows down the stretch. If he gets taken, so be it. Two guys that mildly intrigue, but I still have a hard time seeing them protected - 1. Justin Bour - Unlike last year, he started slow this year, but has been really solid since then. Still ... he's not a big HR power guy (scouting reports always said more average HR power with a healthy amount of doubles) ... and there's Rizzo ahead and possibilities behind. It's hard to imagine that someone plucks him. 2. Michael Burgess - Perhaps he should be on my watch list (considering how long it is). Perhaps there's some residual distaste from when I saw him a couple years ago. The numbers suggest a guy that should be at least crossing my mind, although it's tough to imagine a team plucking him for his power to stash on the bench (a lot more reliable veteran options out there to accomplish that).

McNutt should be in the pen. I imagine the hope is that he can run the fastball up a bit more out of the pen (haven't heard numbers out of the pen, earlier this year, supposedly occasionally peaked around 95 on the 4-seamer). As for his breaking ball, I imagine part of the hope is that out of the pen, he can stop thinking about the change, stop thinking about stamina, stop thinking about sequencing, and, well, basically let it rip. This is similar to what I always wondered about Jay Jackson out of the pen, and it sounds like Jay Jackson's slider has looked a lot better. Still have heard decently promising stuff on McNutt's breaking ball this year (not good ... just that the ability that people were excited about once upon a time was still there). I've always had an odd feeling towards McNutt. 2 years ago, I preferred Archer and thought McNutt was over-rated. Last year, I thought he was under-rated. At a certain point, though, if he simply can't stay healthy/work deep, the move had to be made. It baffles me that Loosen is still in A+, tbh. Not that Loosen is a guy worth getting excited about, but Ty'Relle Harris/Zach Rosscup aren't exactly studs either and Loosen's been dominating A+ hitters since his bad start to the year (which is all but forgotten now). With McNutt in the pen, I honestly thought Loosen would be up. Maybe he'll be up after this cycle, as I can't imagine Ty'Relle Harris staying a starter, so it comes down to whether or not they want Rosscup starting.

I'm jumping in mid-stream I guess, but I wouldn't necessarily rule out Brett from a top 100 spot. Keep in mind where he started, largely a top 40 prospect (IIRC, at least 1 list had him top 30), borderline top 50. He's really a fairly similar player to last year, which often times, causes prospects to drop, but I'm not sure he's necessarily going to drop out of the top 100. He's been disappointing, but he's still an upper level guy who looks like he'll play in the bigs, and he does some things well enough to think that there's going to be some value (solid enough defensively, solid enough power). I also wouldn't rule out Szczur from top 100. He's probably outside looking in (the one list that extended, off the top, was Sickels, who had him top 120). He's improved in all facets that people had some questions on - he's improved defensively, he's improved his discipline, and from April to now, his power has gotten better. He'll probably need the bump up to AA, along with performing well at the level, to grab a top 100 spot ... but I wouldn't rule it out. This isn't to say either guy is going to be top 100, but I think it's too early to write off those guys as top 100 just yet. I think Candelario is on the oustide looking in, perhaps in that top 125 range, as people buy his ability but want to see performance at a higher level. Now, I always had us pegged for 8-12, and I think that's still fairly realistic as of now. 3 top 50, 6-8 top 150. It's possible we slip a notch or two down, but it's also possible trades could bump us to that range. Btw, can anyone give me a short synopsis of the Keith Law thing on rising and falling systems, and in particularly, what his take on us is, if there is one?

oh ... ha ... I completely didn't catch that

He was in Law's Bottom 50 list. That seems fair. I think people want to see him keep up his improvement while also doing it at a higher level. It's hard for me to imagine Matt Szczur ever being in a top 50 of a list, though. He'd have to rake like Jackie Bradley Jr. is right now, while kicking up the power a bit. Not impossible, I guess, but hard to see him hit that well in general (and if he did, hard to see him still stuck in the minors and prospect eligible).

Still think our best bet for a LaHair deal is some sort of small-mid market club that is in it and looking for power. Specifically, I'm thinking about a club like the Indians (or the A's), but both clubs will probably wait a week or two to see if they stick around in the race. The Orioles are another club that I wonder about.

I don't think much of Amaro (I really don't think he's that much better than say, a Jim Hendry), but a mild defense of his is that, well, a lot of GM's would've traded key parts of the farm to try and extend this run. That said, their window was closing faster than people thought (I had them 3rd in the NL East entering the season, and I recall a lot of people thinking I was crazy with that). At a certain point, you have to stop continually trading away the farm because your core simply doesn't warrant it anymore. Right now, they've got an aging core, which if healthy, probably has a decent year or two left, but their farm is fairly weak, and they took a lot of toolsy gambles, some of which haven't panned out. They need to try and make the best deal possible for Hamels, to try and accelerate the rebuilding process. If they can get an Olt from Texas, and maybe a couple young arms, that'd be a heck of a package that could step in and help their aging core next year, while giving them some hope for the future.

I'd love it if we can get Miller. The raw stuff, by most accounts, is still there, and while I like Martinez, Miller still seems a better bet as a top of the rotation starter. That said, I'll still be surprised if they move Miller, and I'd be very surprised if they put Miller and Martinez in a package. Miller and Jenkins, that I could perhaps see.

For the life of me, I don't know why Joe Zeller is starting. Granted, no one in Boise deserves a call-up, but why not start Antigua, or heck, Austin Reed, Luis Liria, or Yao-lin Wang (granted, he's settled in as the closer there).

Probably, but it's not the worst thing to have him developing in AA. He's still young, and much as I like him, his ceiling isn't that high and he needs to be consistently sharp on his breaking stuff to have a chance to make it as a starter.

There probably isn't 34 better raw talents than Baez, but from what I've seen of the list, I think it's fair where he put Baez. You could make a case of +5ish/-5ish perhaps, but while he's an exciting raw talent, there's still enough people that feel that he'll move to 3rd and there's still enough questions on how his aggressive approach plays at a higher level.

After his struggles in EXST, I'm fine with it, for now. But I'd like to see him bypass Boise and get to Peoria, within a month. I think it's possible anyway. I really don't see a rush for that. He's young. I'm fine with him simply going to Boise, which I think he should do at some point this summer. Let Vogelbach/Candelario and Co. develop together. No rush, IMO. I'd rather see Stephen Bruno go up to Peoria to be a 2nd/SS/3rd guy, and kick Geiger to part time 1st/part time corner OF/part time 3rd. Why would you want to move Geiger off of 3rd for someone like Stephen Bruno? Largely as others stated - the chances of Geiger sticking at 3rd were always slim. Bruno is more of a MI prospect, but he has manned third (and was UVA's 3rd baseman last year). I'm not saying you don't give Geiger any time at 3rd, but right now, it seems like a really slim chance that he sticks there, so it wouldn't be the worst thing to see if he can handle corner OF. All that said, the main thing with Geiger is whether or not his bat can produce. Defense was never going to be his forte, to say the least.

The one thing about Rosscup starting that I somewhat don't get is why Loosen didn't get the nod. I'll be mighty curious if this is a one-off for Rosscup (seems unlikely, as they had a day off to schedule things so guys are rested). All that said, they might be curious about Rosscup with the velo reports (that said, last I recall of Rosscup last year, he was low 90's, and I'll be a bit surprised if he can hit those reported mid 90's numbers as a starter). But ... Loosenv has zilch to prove in A+.

After his struggles in EXST, I'm fine with it, for now. But I'd like to see him bypass Boise and get to Peoria, within a month. I think it's possible anyway. I really don't see a rush for that. He's young. I'm fine with him simply going to Boise, which I think he should do at some point this summer. Let Vogelbach/Candelario and Co. develop together. No rush, IMO. I'd rather see Stephen Bruno go up to Peoria to be a 2nd/SS/3rd guy, and kick Geiger to part time 1st/part time corner OF/part time 3rd.

I don't see much in common between Rhee and Berg, other than being pitchers who aren't very good. Berg threw fast and hard and had a hard sinker. Too little command, and no breaking pitch. One really good pitch, but that wasn't quite good enough. Rhee seems almost the anti-Berg profile wise. A multi-pitch 3-pitch finesse guy, trying to mix and spot his two bad pitches (really bad fastball, slow and no movement; and rather bad curve) with his one average pitch (change). Maybe they should send him to Boise and he and Simpson can try to find something down there? Or maybe he's injured. I know when he had his decent stretch last year his 4-seamer was getting up into the 91-93 zone, but you don't go super far with a low-90's 4-seam straightball. The 2-seamer that he tried to use to get outs is naturally slower and decidedly below-average most of the time, average on a good day. Is my info all wrong? I'd like it to be, but I admit it seems much more consistent with the actual ineffectual pitching than this fantasy that he's got a good fastball, good movement, and a signature changeup. If he had those kinds of things, he'd probably get more outs, get an occasional K, and allow not so many HR's. Sorry, that wasn't the best comp. In my head, the common strand was that the two guys only have 1 above average to plus pitch, with everything else average or below average. Two side notes - I thought Rhee was a slider? Eh, not a big deal either way. Also, last year, I had heard Rhee was topping out in that 94-96 range (to be clear, topping out). I haven't heard anything above 92/93 this year.

I suspect Almora will be in Mesa through the rest of the AZL season, then he can go up to Boise for the final week of their season. With the way Theo's staff in Boston pushed Xander Bogaerts, I wonder, if Almora and Soler perform well, if they wouldn't push them up earlier. It has the added benefit of putting Almora/Soler in line with Candelario and Co (not that that should be all that important) and having a group come up together.

Well, based on cycle, it's actually Jokisch's spot, but with the day off, that's up in the air. Wouldn't be surprised if it was Rhee, but the easiest move is to slide Struck to AAA. Currently, Tennessee has Struck listed for tomorrow and Jokisch for Friday. No one listed yet for the weekend games. I really wouldn't be surprised if it's Rhee that's moved, even though I'd like to see Rhee in the rotation. That said, outside of the spurt in velocity late last year, he's largely in the low 90's, and sometimes, high 80's. The zip last year hasn't been there this year, from what I understand, and I think, some guessing here, with only average fastball velo and an average breaking ball, guys are sitting on his change, and thus he's not getting as many whiffs on it, but is getting GB's. Without the zip on the fastball last year, he's more of a Justin Berg than we really hoped for.

Well, based on cycle, it's actually Jokisch's spot, but with the day off, that's up in the air. Wouldn't be surprised if it was Rhee, but the easiest move is to slide Struck to AAA.

Not surprising ... a move was probably going to happen sooner or later with the Almora deal. This is perhaps a bit earlier than expected, but this gets Dunston Jr. regular AB's in Arizona to try and work out whatever issues he was having while having him man CF.

I really like what the Rangers have done. I don't love their current batch of pitching in the upper levels, but I love their aggressive moves to target young arms.

What's the purpose of adding Maholm for them? I would hope a smart FO like their's would recognize that Maholm isn't necessarily a better option than what they have. Now, I think they'll gun after elite pitching. Just have a hard time seeing them go after Maholm types.

Sappelt's actually been hitting well of late, last I checked.

That has been the sort of thing I've been wanting them to do ever since MacPhail/Hendry decided to do the complete opposite (draft and develop pitchers then go sign bats). Why not develope an offensive super team and then spend the free agent dollars, which should be plentiful on pitching. That's kind of the direction that were headed in, with Rizzo, Castro, Vitters, Jackson, and Castillo for now and Soler, Baez, Almora, Candelerio, Vogelsbach, and Amaya to join in upcoming years as well as guys like Lake, Torryes and Szczur somewhere in between. As for pitching, we should have no shortage of back of the rotation starters and middle relief. The general idea of an offensive super team and addressing pitching through the FA market has it's merits. The problem I have with it, though, is you can't, for lack of a better term, get by with scraps. While the Yankees may be trying to trim their budget, more and more teams have money to spend (I mean, I can think of some clubs that might increase their payroll a decent amount next year), and outside of fluke years, there are rarely more than a couple guys that are legitimate impact starters. Unless the player in question has an affinity for the Cubs, it's a tough situation to consistently hope to win on these FA dynamics. If they opt to go this way, and land the FA pitching, great.

Perfect match? Who says we need to trade him to a contender? A lot of teams with a lot more money than The Royals will be in on every SP from Hamels to Liriano. Maybe they have a chance at Dempster, Liriano, Zambrano, or Sanchez, but they may as well not bother with Hamels or Greinke, who's already demanded they trade him once. Here's where Garza comes in. A young, front end starter with another year under team control. While they can't compete with the big boys as far as money, they can with prospects. Regardless of who's in on Hamels or Greinke, if we wanted to work with KC now, we'd be alone. I'm not sure if their system is as bountiful as it once was, but as far as I'm concerned the package can start and end with Wil Meyers. If we can get Myers in any sort of deal for Garza, then let's do it. But ... I doubt they are going to be offering up Myers. If so, though, I'm game.

That's all I'm saying as well. If we get offered an elite positional prospect, or the positional talent is simply that much better (either in upside, or ability to help soon on a regular basis), then okay. There's definitely enough areas of concern, at catcher, in the OF, at 2nd, and 3rd. If it's close, I want the pitching to develop a critical mass for us to have a chance to build off of.