toonsterwu

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside. I don't know if it's baffling. This isn't a defense of the Royals trade (short of it, don't think it's that bad ... it's an understandable move, but if I did pick a winner, it'd be the Rays). That said, as to a comparison of Niese/Wheeler versus the package they got ... I tend to think the package they got has markedly higher value, as it pertains to trade discussions, than Niese/Wheeler. The biggest factor is Shields being a proven major league front of the rotation starter. But there's also the fact that Wade Davis has reached the bigs, performed as a starter, and is still young. It's not hard to envision a pitching coach tinkering with him and having Wade show as a solid mid-rotation starter, and thus, not that far off from Niese. In that respect, and only in that respect, I think it's quite understandable why there was a difference in value.

In terms of experience, the next man up on the 40 would probably be Josh Vitters. Wouldn't surprise me if they signed a guy to compete for a backup role, a Jeff Baker-esque guy that can man a few positions. _____ As for cuts, I still have a tough time seeing Clevenger cut. We'd still need an upper level catcher in the minors and it's not often a team goes with just 2 catchers on the 40 (particularly considering how weak the catching position is in the upper levels of the farm). If we need cuts, Campana's probably near the top, if not first, because Szczur is now on the 40 and can be utilized as a pinch runner. Might not have Campana's speed, but he'd fill a depth OF/pinch runner role just fine in an emergency (obviously, better off for him to be developing in AA/AAA). There really isn't another apparent cut on the positional side of the 40. Pitching wise, Raley/Rusin is probably first up (Rusin in all likelihood). Neither guy is one that you'd be bothered about losing. After that, it's tough to figure. I have doubts they'd cut both Raley and Rusin. I doubt they are thinking about cutting guys like Concepcion or Castillo right now, but push came to shove, I wonder if they'd consider it. I actually sort of wonder about Michael Bowden. If they are desperate for spot, it wouldn't surprise me if they tried to do something with Rondon, either biting the bullet or trying to work out a deal with Cleveland. There's a lot of average guys on the 40, but there aren't that many apparent cut options. That said, I think they are probably waiting to see the dominoes fall as it pertains to FA bats, and then they'd hope to move Soriano. Marmol might be a bit tougher to move, as teams seem willing to gamble on arms being able to close. Might be more of an May/June type move, if someone's closer goes down and he's performing well. There don't seem to many teams looking for late inning arms right now. Maybe Detroit changes their mind on Bruce Rondon. Half-wonder if we ate enough money if the Yankees would consider him in a setup role.

If we're talking perceived, Almora because the K questions, much as I like him, were always there with Brett Jackson. Of course, there's a measure of SNTS involved there, as we really don't know what Almora will offer. But perception-wise, the K issues were always dragging Brett down.

Not sure what the process is to get people on, but I'd argue that Marco Hernandez, Barrett Loux, Hector Rondon, Ben Wells, Logan Watkins, Alberto Cabrera are nearing the point where they should get into the conversation (considering the vote list is a pretty expansive list).

I can go either way on the next two. I'm leaning 6. Juan Paniagua - Has TOR potential, and as of now, is assumed to be more polished. It's an upside nod, but if you assume he's more polished and can move faster than the other arms he was with last year, then I think the upside wins here. The other raw arms like Underwood/Maples have a lot of work to do and are assumed to be further away. The fact that Paniagua has a good breaking ball negates any advantage Maples has on him, IMO. I just don't know if Pierce Johnson's upside is all that high. There really isn't another arm in the mix. Move to the bat side, and I'm not sure Villanueva's bat upside is enough to justify the nod here. I guess I can see an argument if you buy that he will add a bit more power, but I'm not sure. Vitters isn't really in the mix, IMO, as his upside is a bit more debatable and his defensive questions are a valid concern. No on Szczur, Alcantara, or Marco Hernandez here, leaving 7. Brett Jackson - I can buy Brett here. I was initially thinking about him at 5 (prefer Paniagua). The holes are glaring and obvious. Moreover, he might have to a) Get a bit... for lack of a better word ... looser b) Change his approach It's easy to buy him not fixing this, this year, or ever. That said, he plays a solid defensive centerfield. He takes walks. Perhaps the biggest thing is this - his power is solid. If he has to move to a corner role, the power shouldn't be an issue. That's a big positive because if he can hit for enough of an average (and let's set the bar at a reasonable number ... say, .240), he can find a future in the bigs. ______ I think there's a gap after that, and I'm still debating the next guy in my head. I'll post a 3rd name now because Tim asked for it, but I still have Pierce Johnson, Arismendy Alcantara, and Christian Villanueva all lumped together. As of now, I'm leaning (sort of will go through my thought process on all three) 8. Christian Villanueva - I'm going back and forth on all three, although I have Alcantara/Villanueva a smidge ahead of Pierce Johnson. The argument for Johnson is easy - assumed to be a polished college arm, with a plus fastball, solid to good breaking ball, and a decent change (I think). I really am curious how that breaking ball shows against tougher competition, and that is the main thing holding me back for now. Mid-rotation ceiling, late inning arm potential. It's a nice package, but the other two are positional players hitting AA coming off a good year. I was leaning Alcantara for awhile, but I'm sliding a touch over to Villanueva. I imagine I may be higher on Alcantara than most. As I've said before, it's not that I necessarily buy Alcantara. But he's going to be a 21 year old entering AA next year. He's got good tools. I know some are concerned about his lower half and whether or not he gets too big. I don't know if body-point analysis suggests the potential to add good weight growth to the frame (bad weight is a separate issue), and as of now, I think his tools now are good for short, but his consistency isn't there. It's a fair question if he can get more consistent. Offensively, a quick bat with some pop, and a decent approach makes him an interesting offensive specimen there. It's an interesting package. For now, leaning Villanueva. I still have my doubts that his offensive ceiling is higher than Alcantara's by an appreciable amount. That said, he's more polished defensively, and he shouldn't grow out of the position. The weakness of recent and near future third base markets does admittedly play in my mind, as I wonder if we need to start valuing solid 3rd base prospects a bit more than in the past. But if he's ready to help defensively and has a decent bat, he could see time in the bigs sooner than later.

I wonder what type of impact this will have on the rest of the league. The Rangers seemed to want to get Greinke and deal for a bat to replace Hamilton. Do they step up and keep Greinke, and deal for an arm? Or do they decide to go with what's in-house on the arm side? Or do they go a guy like Sanchez and still try to trade for a bat? If I'm them, the last route is probably the way I go, as I'm not sure what elite arm they can pry without using Profar. This sure gives the Dodgers a good one-twp punch in the rotation A healthy Billingsley would give them a stacked rotation. Angels look like they will stand pat ... and that seems to be a very spotty rotation to go with a spotty lineup.

Really doesn't go in this thread, but don't think it's necessary to make a thread for it as of now. So, AzPhil posted the current post-2013 Rule 5 and Six-Year Minor League FA's (along with 2nd contract) in the comments section of the latest TCR article. http://www.thecubreporter.com/12052012/cubs-continue-shopping-spree#disqus_thread At first glance, it feels like a breather year, as of now. Obviously, a lot can change in a year, but ... staring at that list now, not many guys really jump out at me as "We should protect him", let alone "We must protect him". I mean, the top position prospect on that list seems to be Alcantara or Amaya, and we really have to wait and see how Alcantara's bat does in AA and whether or not Amaya can push past Peoria this year (going to be awful tough to justify protecting a position player in Low A unless said player has elite potential. Of course, another argument is that Amaya's versatility may make it easier to protect him, but that assumes he shows something, which should get him past Low A). After that ... Jae Hoon Ha? Pitching wise, it's a bit better, but Marcelo Carreno isn't that much better than Nick Struck, both guys being eligible. Jose Rosario may be the most intriguing name, but we have to see how he does. A bit easier to gamble on velocity, though, so if he's healthy, he could be a "Lendy" type guy. Then there's Arias and Zach Cates guys we have to wait and see how they do next year. I could see both doing enough to deserve sticking around, but a lot of work to do for them. Some pen arms in the mix as well, per the usual. Sort of glad that it's a weaker crop next year, as of now. Granted, I hope some of these guys emerge and make me want to protect them.

IMO, not this high. Coming off injury, and his ceiling before, when wasn't huge either (mid-rotation at best, or late inning arm). I think he probably deserves to be listed as we get closer to the back end of the top 10, and my initial thought is that he's probably more a 15-25 guy in the system.

Maybe, although I think they are in full rebuild phase, so I doubt it. Moving Span made sense - he wasn't going to be a part of their future when they were ready to compete, and getting a high ceiling arm in Meyer made sense. I think this was simply a case of getting too good of a deal to pass up on. _______ I like bringing Stewart back on a non-guaranteed deal. With the weak third base market, he offers a decent option, and if he hasn't fixed things in spring, you cut the cord and move on. There really weren't that many options that looked that appealing out there.

I'm mildly surprised the Twins moved both Revere and Span. I think it's two excellent moves for them, just a touch surprised. But good gambles on power arms make sense for them.

I don't mind the move. I don't know if we can get a .800 OPS out of a Schierholtz/Sappelt platoon, but they can probably be productive offensively and solid defensively. It's not a great move in the whole scheme of things, but for 1 year, if Brett emerges, or if they sign someone else and Soriano isn't dealt, then we've got an excellent 4th/5th OF (with Schierholtz/Sappelt going to the bench). With the roster so jammed, I imagine a cut (or two) is coming soon. They are probably waiting for the top hitting FA's to sign and then they will try and shop Soriano.

I guess I'm okay either way. Personally, I'd leave Fujikawa off. A guy over 30 who has played professionally elsewhere really shouldn't be a rookie. That said, because he still qualifies as a major league rookie, as idiotic as that may be, he's still eligible for general prospect lists if people want to consider it. The secondary problem is that a prospect list typically refers to a guy with the ability to get better/help long run. Taking the hypothetical Appel scenario, even if he comes up at 27, you've got the ability to run him out there for 3-4 years and hope that he is capable of helping long run. With the notes on Fujikawa's declining velocity and his age (Wei-Yin Chen had declining velocity but was far younger), it's hard to imagine him really helping long run or getting better. I guess nothing is impossible. Anyhow, I'm okay either way.

I'm leaning Paniagua as well, but not with a load of enthusiasm about it. There's a notable gap after 4. For all the expectations that he's more polished than Underwood and others, well, that's still unknown. That said, the reports of his easy power and potential advanced secondary pitch gets the upside nod as of now, and I'll assume that he is a bit more developed than the raw arms. Brett Jackson would be a close 6th, with Vogelbach a close 7th. I love Vogelbach's bat, but it's awful tough for me to put a 1st/DH corner slugger who hasn't hit full season ball yet at 5 this year. It's much easier to gamble on an arm with velocity like Paniagua, if you assume he is a bit more polished, than a bat, as it assumes that Vogelbach has a truly elite minor league bat. It's possible he does, but this far away, it's just too risky for me.

Interesting to hear someone actually note Eric Jokisch this winter somewhere. The Pilere list looks interesting. Would've been nice to hear his argument for Soler at 1.

If we get Peralta back, then all is well. As intrigued as I am with Rondon, I would've rather kept Peralta than get Rondon on account of upside. I worry that the Dbacks can hide Peralta because of their bullpen depth. As for Rondon, I'm not sure he's a starter long run. I guess all the injuries have me curious how the development of his breaking ball went. Could be another nice asset in the pen. Losing Burgess, Cera, and Jimenez doesn't really matter, nothing against those guys.

Considering Marco is outside of my top 10, no, I wouldn't have fought to have him on there right now. I mean, if you are going to have Candelario on there, then Marco should be on there, but he's really not a consideration for me at 5 this year. If anything, I'd argue Arismendy Alcantara should deserve consideration, but I seem to be in the minority. I know there are concerns about his defense (growing out of the position ... but I'm not sure he puts on that much more and physically, he has the ability to stay at short now, but not the consistency) and offense, bu next year, he'll likely be a 21 year old shortstop starting in AA, with solid to good defensive tools, coming off a good offensive season, showing solid pop. This isn't skating over his concerns - they are there, but it's an intriguing package. If a guy like Torreyes is on there now, I don't see why Alcantara wouldn't be. As for Fujikawa, he'd probably slide into my revamped 7-10 slots. Not sure where - year b year, he's likely to continue the decline that has been reported, but his stuff is good enough for the bigs now and you assume he has enough polish and command.

I really wonder what the Nats are going to do now. I thought they were in on the Rays starters, but the Haren signing all but rules that out. I guess the easiest expectation is to simply slot Morse at first, but there's a part of me that wonders if they may use Morse to restock the system and try to sign LaRoche back for the defensive help he provided (Zimmerman sailed balls early in the year, and as talented as Desmond is, he can occasionally throw a wild one). Either way, it's shaping up to be a very good winter for Mike Rizzo and Co., getting Harper out of CF, getting Werth out of the top of the lineup, and keeping their stacked rotation.

I like Norris a lot. I haven't really followed that closely this year to know if he was hurt, but I do know he took some off his fastball to try and get better command a few years ago. That said, the consistent decline in velocity is alarming, and there were some injury issues in the past (want to say elbow). All that said, he's 28. There's no point to adding him unless the price is cheap, and I doubt the Astros are going to sell him on the cheap. It just doesn't fit with what seems to be our timeline as of now.

I went Almora. Funny, I liked the pick (made the comment that I wouldn't mind taking him over Correa), but don't know if I love Almora, and think he got a bit over-hyped post-draft. That said ... I'm not going to read too much into Boise numbers. Almora's broad based ability in centerfield and his high, albeit not Soler level, offensive potential just gets enough of a tiny edge. I can buy Soler, as his offensive ceiling is higher, and he has the potential to be an elite RF. Add in that he's physically more developed, and potentially could move faster, and there's a lot to like. But I guess, when drawing the slim lines, I'm a bit bothered by reports on his swing (although I said elsewhere that I think he could zoom up the ladder, but need extra time in the upper levels).

I feel like, at the top of the list, to lessen the odd votes, it might be better to limit it to 5 or so guys. I think most of us agree that there is a top tier of about 3-5 guys. But that's me. Anyhow, my vote is Baez.

Uh, don't know where we are at for this, but my 4th guy would be Arodys Vizcaino. I can buy the argument made above that he could be higher, but I think there's enough concern about his health to warrant waiting. At his best, 2 plus pitches and a decent-solid change that flashes a bit better on occasion. His ceiling is better than most of our current upper level prospects, positional and pitchers, and I think he holds a sizable lead on the younger guys in A ball. 5th is tough. I was leaning Brett for the longest time, but ... I think I'll go with Paniagua's upside. Yes, the difference between Paniagua/Underwood/Maples might not be much, but I've never been a fan of Maples mechanics, and Underwood seems a bit rawer than Paniagua. To be honest, I don't like Paniagua here, and I think there's a big gap from 4-5 in the system. I was leaning Brett for awhile, but much as I like Brett, and much as I would bet on Brett to be a major leaguer, those are big issues for him to fix. I'm wary of ranking Vogelbach this high because of position and level, but I do love the bat. Just not gutsy enough to throw him up here. Paniagua's reports seem that good, but I could see him go up OR down next year from this spot. 6th would be Brett. It's easy to forget that there was once questions about how much power he would have, but now, most people seem to think he'd be fine in a corner role, power-wise. Can he fix his issues? As of now, I'll give him a slight edge on Vogelbach due to how far away Vogelbach is. 7th would be Vogelbach.

Penalver's probably going to start in XST and maybe head to Boise. There's a case to be made that he might be the best defensive shortstop in the system, but offensively, he's a big question. I think there's some intrigue there (not a lot, but some), but the combination of youth, being far away, and clear offensive questions probably leaves him off most top 20's, and many top 30's.

A long way to go ... but one thing I'm going to be very curious about is who opens in Daytona's rotation. A lot of arms could be in the mix - Juan Carlos Paniagua, Ben Wells, Jose Rosario, Michael Jensen, Starling Peralta, Pierce Johnson, Marcelo Carreno, PJ Francescon, and a couple more could be in the mix. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily rule out Jeffry Antigua, Zach Cates, Frank Del Valle, and a few others as possible starters. Jumbo - I'd be a tad surprised if they bumped Cabrera down to AA to log innings. Not impossible, but it would be mildly surprising.

I get the value of the deal. What I am curious about is why the Braves wanted Jordan Walden. With all the rumors out there that the Braves may still make a play for Justin Upton, I wonder if this sets up another deal (either moving Walden, or moving a current pen arm). Or ... they really wanted to bolster their pen. As for the Angels, as bad as Hanson's arm might be, I think this is a decent gamble on their part to add rotation depth.

If I went the optimistic route, yes, I'd agree that Baez would be up at some point in 2014. Optimistically, I could see Almora/Soler with cups of coffee late in 2014 as well (it would have them rake the heck out of the ball this year, force their way up to A+ or AA and then dominate the heck out of things in AA next year). If I had to take a guess at who would make it on an accelerated path (relative to typical expectations), as of now, I'd probably go with Almora. One thing is certain, though ... this is a big year for all of our prospects. If some guys don't push their way up, it's not hard to envision the rebuilding take more time.