toonsterwu

Two relatively inconsequential guys are fairly hot - Pin-Chieh Chen has hit much better at Daytona, and Jon Mota has been red hot. Hey, anyone remember why the Mota as a catcher experiment was discarded? It's slipping my memory.

Well, I'll grant you that the roster has lost some luster. It looks like tomorrow is Starling Peralta night. If you catch Peralta on a good night, he could put up dominant numbers. That said, he is way down on the list of Cubs prospects now, despite his electric stuff, because it's just been a bad season. Leaving aside pitching, Jeimer's still there, and if he ever puts it together, he's still got top level bat potential. Gioskar could still be a good offensive 2nd baseman. Granted, both of them are struggling right now. Wilson Contreras is probably the best backstop in the system (admittedly, that statement by itself doesn't say much), and he does remind me a tiny bit of Welington Castillo. Rock Shoulders still has excellent power. Actually, the hot bat of late has been Marco Hernandez (last 10: .351/.368/.541), who might end up with a season line fairly close to what Arismendy Alcantara did in Peoria a couple years back. I still haven't heard from anyone that Marco's tools have diminished, so I'm still going off what I thought of a tools comparison of the two preseason - that Marco's complete toolset is better than Arismendy's, but Arismendy may have louder tools in certain areas.) If you have far more important things ... well, heck, slightly more important thing ... I'd probably place a higher priority on doing said things than going to a Cougars game, if the intent of going to a Cougars game is hoping to see a future regular on the Cubs. That said, there's still enough raw upside in Kane County that it's still quite possible that there's a key prospect or two to bloom from this current crop in a year or two (particularly since Daytona is, I'm assuming, still a slightly better hitting environment than Kane County).

Silva has two problems facing him. One is a short term issue - the Cubs feel like Brett Jackson needs the opportunities and don't want him in AAA. So he's in AA, which forces a logjam in playing time. The bigger issue is his approach. To be fair, I haven't seen him in a year or so, but the numbers are similar, so my hunch is that things are still the same for him. When I last saw him, he was as aggressive as anyone in the system. He's got pretty good bat speed, IIRC, and covers the plate well, so there's a lot he can get to that others can't, but man, he went after some pretty bad pitches, IIRC. That said, he is a guy with solid speed, and better pop than many probably realize. As for Ha, he's having another 2nd half surge, and hence why I slid him into the top 20. Leaving aside rankings, as they really only matter to promote discussion for fans, he looks like he's a solid bet to get time in the majors. It's just, as of now, he doesn't project as a starter, despite the fact that he's young, has some production, and has some tools to work with. The problem, though, is, it seems unlikely he'll ever tap into the raw power tools that he has, and while he has some speed, he's not a particularly adept base stealer. He's a better prospect than Szczur in many respects, but it's almost easier to envision Szczur in the bigs because of his base stealing potential (granted, his SB rate isn't all that good, but he's a more adept base stealer than Ha).

A month ago, what I would've liked to see is Baez starting 2014 in AA at shortstop ... with the Cubs giving Alcantara one final look at shortstop in AAA. If he even gets off to a remotely good start in AAA, Alcantara could become a ridiculously good trade chip by himself. If he struggles defensively at short in AA, you could still move him back to 2nd whenever you shifted Baez up. That said, with the way he's torn it up in AA, I don't know if they start Baez at AA to start 2014. It's not the biggest deal, but you want to reward a guy for ridiculous performance, and it's still a promotion. Anyhow, didn't McLeod say a little while back that they'll consider other positions for Baez this offseason, if only to gain experience? We'll find out some idea of what they are thinking sooner than later.

He's gotta be a top five guy. He's taking walks now, has huge power, and plays short. Buxton, Bogaerts, Correa, Tavares will all be ranked higher. Bradley, Lindor, and Sano are possible as well. Off the top of my head, there is only one guy on that list that I am completely convinced is a better prospect than Baez. It's hard to say Bogaerts shouldn't be ahead of Baez, and I'm not all that big on Bogaerts. That said, he's a similar player with a better approach and succeeding at a higher level, and like Baez, capable of handling shortstop in his youth. I like Baez individually more than Bogaerts, but on a rankings list, I would probably but Bogaerts ahead. I can sort of understand Lindor and Bradley as well. Bradley's arm talent is that good, but the flip side is the whole position vs. pitcher discussion. Lindor is an issue of defensive value. I wouldn't put him ahead of Baez, but I can understand it if folks that think he'll be an above average offensive player and an elite defensive shortstop. I mean, Jurickson Profar was ranked first, and he doesn't exactly have otherworldly capabilities. I don't think Sano or Correa should be ranked ahead, but I imagine that they will on some lists. Taveras is a tough one. I'd probably put him ahead, as he's that much more polished offensively, but I can see people dropping him a bit.

Thanks. I've had a busy year so have only been loosely keeping up and haven't had time to attend games as much. It was fun to try and see how I felt about the system. If Maples mechanics have been fixed to ensure that the command won't be as horrendous as it was in his short stint in KC, then I would slide him up. I just don't know, and I'm wary of reading too much into his Boise performance, where guys with a plus pitch can simply get by. I could go a number of ways on 18-20. Someone like Blackburn could be argued to be in the mix as well. While I put Contreras ahead of Ha, I actually like Ha in the top 20 a bit better than I like Contreras. At some point, the fact that Ha has adjusted and looks to have a decent shot at a major league role (not a starter obviously), combined with his age, should give him a nod. He's just been a tough guy to figure in the yearly rankings for 2-3 years now - a toolsy, young guy with some performance, but enough concerns (lack of power, how elite is that defense in CF, not a great basestealer, although he does have solid enough speed). Anyhow, I can understand going away from Contreras and Ha from the top 20, and I'll go a step further ... I can understand leaving Amaya off as well. He's had a great month (July), a good month (May), a below average month (June), and a crappy month (April). In the first 3 months, he had strikeout rates above 25%.

Decided to take some time to try and hammer out a list, as I never got around to it and was curious how I felt about things. The biggest difference to me is the increased depth in that 2nd tier, that is, the guys right below the elite tier. It's a messy 2nd tier, as a lot of the guys have warts, but there's better depth there. I'm leaving Junior Lake off, as there's almost no way, IMO, that he doesn't pass service time thresholds. Elite Tier 1. Baez 2. Bryant 3. Almora 4. Soler Baez has shown the ability to adjust and adapt, and as of now, you give him the benefit of the doubt on the ability to develop and mollify the concerns with his K rate. In a year, we'll know more. His position and production at a higher level give him the edge on the other three. I could buy cases for any of the other 3 at the 2 slot, but Bryant's power gets the edge. There's a part of me that wonders how we would've felt about Soler by now if he'd played the whole year and gotten a likely bump to AA. The Improved, but messy, 2nd tier 5. Pierce Johnson 6. Olt 7. Alcantara 8. Edwards 9. Vogelbach 10. Villanueva I'm not sure I love Pierce at the 5 spot, but his frame projects better as a starter and stuff seem a tick better than Edwards right now. The struggles of Olt (season) and Alcantara (last month and change) makes it hard for me to put them ahead of a good arm like Pierce who has performed well. Olt edges out Alcantara and Edwards for now, as his K's have dropped enough and he still has the glove and power. I was pondering Edwards ahead of both Alcantara/Olt, but Alcantara, despite his struggles of late, has had a good enough year and shown that his offensive improvement last year wasn't a mirage. In another system, he might still be at short. Then, you factor in Edwards frame, and for now, I have the two positional guys ahead. Vogelbach had himself a good year. You could argue for Villanueva higher than Vogelbach. Villanueva's consistent power production year-long, plus his still well-regarded defensive potential, is an intriguing package. The "Intriguing, but ..." 3rd Tier 11. Vizcaino - "but he's been too damn injured". Upside puts him in the top tier. Lack of pitching in the past 2 years brings him down. 12. Candelario - "but ... he's far away and we have to see if he can stick at 3rd". Still, the fact that his approach held and that he's shown well at times is a big positive. Power should still come. 13. Zastryzny - "but there isn't much full season performance to judge by". Still, lefties with good velocity, solid secondary options, and a deep arsenal have a shot. 14. Cabrera - "but ... he reached AA the first time in 2010". He had a really nice run as a starter. Do they continue to let him start? Don't know, but my guess is yes. Still, how much do you read into his positive performance in AA this year? Shame he reached an innings limit, as I would've loved to see what he could do in AAA. 4th Tier 15. Paniagua - Could go higher, but the rust makes it tough to gauge. 16. Hendricks - There's still value in a back of the rotation arm, and Hendricks command gives him a chance. IIRC, there were positive reports on his change-up as well. 17. Pineyro - Live arm, good performance, solid secondary option. Part of me wonders if he shouldn't be higher. I'm having a ridiculous tough time deciding which way to go 18-20 and I wanted to finish this, so just giving it a quick rip-through. 18. Contreras - A backstop who is improving and has some pop. Honestly, potential profile reminds me a tiny bit of Welington Castillo. 19. Amaya - There's some pop in the bat, and the K's have settled down. 20. Ha - I contemplated SNTS and Hannemann. If you asked me if Matt Szczur could be a 2nd tier club's starting CF, I'd say perhaps. I even contemplated John Andreoli a bit. Logan Watkins inconsistent offensive season really took him out of the mix for me. Ha is still only 22, has a solid approach. He'll probably never tap into and utilize all his tools, but there's enough there to think he could make a depth OF, and there's certainly more intrigue than say, a Szczur or a Watkins. I gave some mild thought to putting Jokisch in here, but the walks are just a smidge high. Ben Wells breaking ball simply never took another step, but he's quietly had a solid year and it's not hard to imagine him being a workhorse innings eater. A bunch of high upside arms are close, but either too raw, struggled, or was demoted. Anyhow, that was fun.

I don't know the overall league numbers off the top (both are pitcher's leagues, if you want to say one league is more pitcher friendly, it's probably the FSL by a hair, but it's probably close), but unless I'm mistaken, isn't Kane County, like Peoria, a relatively worse home park for offense than Daytona? That's probably an awkward way to put it, so short of it is, isn't Daytona a better home hitting environment than KC for the league? Could've sworn it was, off the top, but maybe I'm mistaken. Edit: Perhaps I should have said once he got out of Kane County, and not the MWL ... then again, maybe I'm mistaken on the park factors for KC and Daytona right now.

I really expect Jeimer to break out once he gets out of the MWL (in the same vein, I expect Vogelbach to go from somewhat intriguing to, for lack of a better word, damn!, offensively now that he's out of the MWL). The one nice plus on Jeimer's season has been seeing how his discipline has stayed fairly strong, particularly of late.

Is the "stuff" still something like low-mid 90's fastball and solid splitter? If so, does seem like an intriguing pen option for next year.

I guess I'm somewhere in the middle on Villanueva. I still don't know if I love him, but he's actually had a fairly consistent, positive offensive year (only a down June), so this isn't like a Logan Watkins hot summer run in Daytona/Tennessee. Power was always one of his bigger concerns, but since coming into the Cubs system, there should be less of a concern with his ability to generate enough power. I'm not terribly troubled by his errors, as long as the reports still suggest that he's a potentially solid defender at the hot corner. When you factor all that in, plus his age, and the fact that 3rd base seems increasingly tough to find a solid player these days, and Villanueva becomes a valuable, intriguing prospect. In an ideal world, he's probably not in the Cubs core (with Bryant/Olt/Baez/someone else at 3rd ... and you probably don't want him at 2nd (IIRC, the old Rangers reports on him at 2nd were pretty bad ... I think they tried him there a little bit, if not in regular full season work, perhaps in XST, instructs or something) or in a corner OF role), but well, ideal dynamics rarely come to fruition, so it isn't like I'd be disappointed if Villanueva is our 3rd baseman in a couple years. Ideally, someone else takes over 3rd, and Villanueva is used as a key chip in the next year or two to acquire, say, a key arm, or an impact positional player. He's definitely improved his "stock" this year, though.

gee - ya think? I'm starting to think Baez 4th on a total MLB list might be a little too low. I think Baez is probably a clear top 10 next year. 4th may be the high end of where he can rank. Buxton is the clear top guy, and then after that, Oscar Taveras probably still gets the benefit of the doubt. I don't think a season with injuries will really reduce how people view him. A case can probably be made as high as 3rd, but Xander Boegaerts is awfully tough to put behind Baez, as folks seem to think that he could play short in his youth if need be. There's a bunch of people in the mix afterwards, and I can see a case for Baez at 4th, because despite a clear concern in his offensive game right now, he's shown that he can adjust to each level, and at his age and development, it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he can improve his approach at the plate, and the reports on his ability to stay at short are still fairly bullish. That said, I can probably see folks being concerned enough to give a couple guys a nod ahead of him (maybe a guy like Taijuan Walker, could see some folks sliding Lindor ahead, probably another guy or two I'm forgetting right now).

It's an interesting group of pitching names, but the two most intriguing/highest upside guys (Peralta/Maples) both had their struggles/collapses this year. The guy I'm actually curious with again is Rhee. Part of this due to the dearth of quality upper level pitching in the system, which makes any guy with some stuff look intriguing. But he's had solid back to back starts, with his stuff, from what I gather, carrying into the 5th and 6th. A lot of the stuff, from the little I've followed, seems like it's similar to what he showed last year (topping low 90's on a 2-seamer/sinker, ever so slightly higher on a 4-seamer fastball, the usual solid split/change). I'm curious to find out if that breaking ball has improved enough. This could easily be a 2-start aberration and guys catch up to him, but the stuff has always been there, so I'm curious ... he's still a guy that could be considered a pen consideration if he falters as a starter, since he's shown he can amp up the fastball in short spurts and has the quality split/change.

I really hope this piggyback thing isn't permanent for Wells (that is, a permanent move to the pen for his career). While he looks like he'll never take that next step and firm up his breaking ball consistency, he's still put together a solid season (not great, but solid), and has shown that his ground ball rate is carrying over, consistently, at a higher level. That said, Daytona has gone from a squad with interesting bats to a squad with an interesting staff, and it sure looks like they are rotating/piggybacking guys a bit. Been an interesting year at Daytona with how it's gone from a positional laden group to a pitching laden group.

Find it mildly interesting that both Sullivan and Heyman note that the Cubs would consider actively shopping him if they didn't get an extension this winter. May be reaching in this assessment, but it almost feels like someone is intentionally leaking this to send a message. My guess is that they'll get him signed down, maybe something like 5/75?, but sure seems that the deck is open.

I've never really bought him as a starter, even though he put up solid enough numbers this year. There's just enough bouts of inconsistency to think that he's simply better off in the pen. That said, with him throwing roughly 120-130 innings this year, I guess they could slot him as the 5th starter next year and just ... give it a roll and target, say, 150 innings. I doubt they'll do that, and I still think he might be the closer of the future.

I don't think it's that out there to suggest that his first half gave the impression he could be a 2nd tier starting CF. I think someone, maybe Callis, said that as well. I mean, Brett Gardner had a .259/.345/.369 line, so offensively, it's not hard to think Szczur couldn't potentially do something like that.

Did he pass it by that much? I thought he threw some innings in winter league as well, although I don't recall right now, so I thought he was closer to 100 innings last year. Anyhow, if that's the case, that makes sense. Edit: Let's see, fangraphs has him at 76.2 last year, and 119.1 this year. That is a fairly big jump already. Honestly, if it's an innings issue, I really wouldn't mind if they just shut him down a bit and let him get some work at fall/winter ball. As a side note, I think Szczur looks like what he is, a possible 2nd tier squad starting CF, a depth OF on a quality team, who is going through a big slump. He had a solid first half (a good month, a eh month, and an average month), and a horrid July.

Cabrera not starting still befuddles me. It's not as if he was ... bad at Tennessee. Again, I've always thought he was a pen arm, but it seems odd to spend half the year having him start and then moving him to the pen ... without him failing. I guess there's always the "work on all his pitches" argument, but it seemed like they were giving him a legitimate chance to start.

Why? Norris? As much as some of their starters are overachieving, you aren't going to replace, say Locke, with Norris. Is he an upgrade over their other guys?

Well ... depending on the third piece, that's actually, at first glance, a solid move for the Orioles. Hoes is nice, but really feels more like a super-util type, IMO, so if the third piece isn't a big time guy, it seems ... like a good gamble for them. Wonder if the Competitive Balance Pick that the Astros got was as attractive as Hoes to them.

I've always liked Bud Norris a bit more than most (when he was coming up), but man, it's strange to see him as a main attraction at the trade deadline. I'm going to be very curious what it costs whichever team (sounds like the Orioles), as I'm not sure it makes sense to give up a quality prospect to land him. Edit: Not bad for the O's. A Competitive Balance pick, Hoes, and another piece. Provided the third piece isn't a top guy, this would be a nice gamble on their part. This pushes Hammels out, and they potentially don't give up a top guy. Hoes is nice, but feels more like a super-util type.

It's an interesting return. He's having an "off" year, but really, isn't that far off from his last few years. I like Stites a fair amount, but they basically used their surplus to address their pen for a run this year (with Thatcher, and an outside chance of Stites). I've never been a huge Kennedy guy, but a year ago, you wouldn't make that deal. Their depth allows them to do this, but it won't be hard to imagine Kennedy having a strong year next year for the Padres and making this trade look awkward, as I don't think anyone would really think of Thatcher as the missing piece to a title for the Diamondbacks.

I'd be stunned if the Orioles decided to part with what's needed to land Samardzija. I'm not sure they really have enough unless they really opened the bank, and there's no way I see them moving Bundy (even with TJ, you'd gamble on that arm almost any day) and Gausman, along with maybe Rodriguez. I can't see something like Gausman/Rodriguez/+ being enough, unless the Cubs are far higher on Schoop than I am. I'm mildly curious what the Cubs turned down to have the rumors pointing to Schierholtz staying at the last second. Then again, we didn't need to haphazardly move him (or Russell) so if the offers were that bad, okay. Still hoping Gregg gets moved, though.

This feels like as good a trade as possible. An intriguing enough piece for Soriano, at first glance.