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Caratini and ... I'm not real sure. Rivero was the first thought, but I also like Jonathan Martinez a bit. My excuse for pushing Martinez up higher than most guys with a similar profiles would be that his potential to have two quality secondary offerings might kick it up. Still, feels a bit early. Not inclined to go Black or Blackburn here - the former's pen readiness is, on paper, behind Rivero's, and the latter's ceiling is too fringy here and I like Martinez, I think, a tick more. Szczur/Hannemann would be two similarly guys, but going for Szczur here seems like a nod to the spring, as I wouldn't have had him here pre-Spring. I'm intrigued with Cease/Steele, but really want to see how they show when healthy before buying. Dunno. I feel like I'm going to vote Candelario. It's not that I really buy him - it's that, the profile looks like it's still good enough to fit him in this high. He's only going be 21, the offensive upside is still there by most accounts. I think he does better in A+ than he did last year, and with a little luck on his side, I could even see some sort of breakout offensive season occurring. May switch it to Rivero later.

somewhat of a side note, but I find somewhat odd that you view Jeimer, at age 21, as a "vet" (while younger than some of his potential teammates). To be honest, I still consider both of them "prospects". With how some catchers develop later, plus Contreras making the switch from IF to C, and showing some defensive chops, I'm not ready to write him off at age 22/23 from developing into some sort of mildly useful asset down the line. I mean, gun to my head, I doubt he'd ever be more than a backup in a best case scenario, but I can think of a lot of catchers in years past that were clear non-prospects compared to Contreras (Tony Richie comes to mind, amongst others). As for Candelario, he's still got a very intriguing offensive upside, and he's only 21 entering High A. Do I "buy" Candelario right now? Not particularly, but I do expect him to have a much better year than last year in A+. With a little luck, I could envision a breakout offensive year for him.

So, my initial reaction was that the Cahill deal seemed bleh for the Dbacks. That got me intrigued enough to go check out a Diamondbacks board to see how they felt ... and oddly, they seemed pleased with it. Part of me wonders if it's Stockholm Syndrom of some sort ... the main points those fans seem to argue is that they needed to trim 3 million off the budget, Elander could be a lotto ticket, Cahill struggled last year, and they wanted to get Archie Bradley in the bigs. Still ... there are Elander type, older guys in most orgs, and unless you are really confident about someone, I'm not ready to really buy that. Bradley starting the year in the bigs also starts his clock. Oh, another potential corner OF. Dunno, I guess I can sort of understand why they made the deal, but I'd rather gamble on Cahill finding something.

slow down buddy, im not saying that, but just cuz a guy isnt ranked a top 100 prospect dont mean he cant be a sleeper to be a regular. not saying dude is gonna be a superstar or anything here. http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-editorials-opinions-analysis/2015/2/21/8079805/baseball-top-players-not-prospects-best-regulars I don't think you need to squint that hard to imagine, if things go positively, that Matt Szczur could be a Brett Gardner-esque useful regular, superb depth piece on a great time. After all, when they drafted him, the hope was that, because he was relatively raw to baseball as a full-time sport, that his raw athletic tools would eventually help him tap into some power, making him a guy who could potentially slash a decent average, get on-base, and have enough pop, while, due to his quickness, having potentially solid defensive chops in CF. (It was somewhat similar to the hopes for Hanneman). I also don't think people would have a real problem with Coghlan being benched eventually. While Coghlan had a nice pedigree when he came up, he had too many down years in b/w to really expect too much at this stage. It'd be nice if he could, but eh. His versatility, though, is a nice help, as you could realistically play him short term at 6 spots (off the top, don't recall if he has any emergency catching skills ... I rule out SS unless as an emergency as I don't think he has said quickness to be even passable ... still not impossible I guess). I think the reason some people are reacting the way they are, with some sarcastic comments, is more due to an aspect of your 2nd statement - based on spring training. As great as Szczur's ST has been ... to give him a full regular job based on spring training would be ... a gutsy call. It's possible you are right and Szczur is simply tapping into his skills now, but I think people are showing reasonable caution on expectations at this time. Look, the ideal scenario is we have so much depth, we can stash them around, let the high ceiling guys develop, or move them for key assets. Szczur's value will probably never be huge (you can find a Szczur-ish guy in most systems ... it's part of the reason why I found the Spangenberg love several years ago ridiculous), but Olt could be a nice trade asset if he hits for a passable average (.240-.260), shows pop, and shows a solid glove at 3rd. It would give a lot of flexibility. Here's hoping you are right and they are "for real". In all honesty, if Szczur became ... say Sam Fuld ... I'd be pleased enough.

If Szczur and Olt are for real, then we'll have the ability to go get an impact arm at the deadline without forking over too much key future assets. That said, let's be a bit cautious. It's ST. Szczur has never shown this level of pop, and while he should've had more game power than he's shown in the past, and I know the reports of him being jacked are there, he still has to show it on a consistent basis. Look ... I can buy Szczur over Coghlan at some point, but its just too early, IMO, to think they are for real, and I would still go with Coghlan over Szczur to start the year (if Maddon wanted, he could work Szczur in there once or twice a week at the start to get a better feel for things). As for Olt, with the paucity of quaity 3rd baseman, if he can hit for a decent average and show some power, he'll get some interest in the league, in all likelihood. That said, if they are "real", keeping them around as depth wouldn't be the worst thing, as the kids with perceived better futures still have to show it. It's a luxury that we haven't had in ages.

I'm going to be quite fascinated with this weekend for UVA vs. Louisville. To be fair, I guess there's the game this afternoon against VCU to be concerned with. UVA struggled to start the ACC season, with an ugly sweep to the Hokies, and a bad series loss to Florida State (bad because of how Game 2/3 went ... obviously, losing a series to FSU isn't bad). The offense was scuffling, with the number of injuries and the young kids forced in early. The pitching was the disappointing part, was Jones had an ugly outing with huge control problems, and Waddell wasn't exactly sharp. A bigger concern is the lack of pen depth at the moment (outside of Doherty and Bettinger, no one else has been consistent in front of Sborz ... and Bettinger gets occasional weekday starts). After a bad loss to Georgetown, where the offense disappeared, they swept Notre Dame. Obviously, the Irish aren't exactly a great team this year (actually, the entire ACC seems relatively down), but it was a good series win. More importantly, the pitching looked better. Jones could be a high first in 2016 if the command is there. Kirby's been strong, and Waddell simply has to be steady for them. Derek Casey (IIRC, there were rumors the Cubs targeted him last year, but he passed on it, what was it, 3rd round? or was it the 2nd round slot and then they opted for Stinnett) had a good outing yesterday against VMI. The pen has the raw talent to be better than years past, but it's young (and veterans like David Rosenberger have scuffled to start the year). The lineup's better now. Sadly, sounds like John LaPrise may be out for the year (reading b/w the lines of reports abroad can be debatable). That said, McCarthy should be back at some point. Thaiss is hitting it real well this year, really putting it together in his sophomore campaign (if he can stick behind the plate, he's going to be a fascinating college catcher in the 2016 draft). Towns has been a solid veteran anchor, and Pavin Smith has been solid first year. Power's going to take time for Smith. Daniel Pinero's added bulk seems to have made him stronger at the plate. Robbie Coman's healthy, so he's splitting time at C/1st/DH with mainly Thaiss, and the pleasant surprise, Kevin Doherty (due to injuries, UVA had to call up guys from the club team and move Doherty into a 2-way role, and he's excelled at the plate, at least, relative to expectations). Novak's bad bat was taken out and Clement was shifted there, as Adam Haseley moved into CF. Haseley's bat has taken off of late as well. If McCarthy makes it back, this is a fairly deep lineup again. That said, it was one series against Notre Dame. Louisville's going to be a big test. They really need these next two ACC series to be series wins, IMO, to really have a shot at hosting a regional. Obviously, with UVA's arm, if they make it anywhere, they'll be a threat, but you want that regional. Losses in the next two series could really dent that, although I haven't looked in depth at the numbers.

I haven't watched Fulmer this year (particularly since I am out of the country), but if he's similar to last year, the delivery was a high effort delivery, which was why some thought he was destined for the pen. I had thought he might be able to tone it down a bit as a starter. Dunno. As for Kirby, he's an interesting case. The stuff is good, better than last year, at least, based on what I've read and the snippets of video I've tried to catch up with online. The change-up might be much improved. Sure, compared to Aiken's perceived ceiling last year, Aiken's is better, but Kirby's got a chance to be a lefty that can occasionally touch mid-90's (to be fair, as a pro, I expect him to settle in the low 90's), a plus secondary, and an above average change-up. At our first round spot, if Kirby got the nod, I'd be relatively pleased. The frame, durability, command all look to be solid. The delivery looks like it might not be as bad an issue as Hultzen's was coming out of UVA. I really wouldn't mind any of UVA's 3 pitchers within our top 10 rounds. I wouldn't want Sborz before, say, the 3rd, as I don't think we need him that bad and I don't think there's a real good shot of him being developed as a successful starter, and Waddell would be a nice mid-round arm if he fell in that 5th-7th range.

to be clear, in case it wasn't, I'm simply saying that Caratini is the most polished defensive backstop of our top catching prospects, which isn't saying that much. I don't think he'll ever be an elite defensive backstop, based on what's out there, what I heard last year, but I think he's got enough of a skillset to be solid-average. With Zastryzny, I simply would like to know what his consistent velocity is this year. Wasn't there a lot of variance last year, based on the reports? Some nights where he was high 80's mostly, other nights, low 90's? That small difference looks like it is a significant issue for him, as I recall several reports saying he excelled with those extra ticks. As for Szczur, I gotta think a lot of people are voting based on what's happening now, but I take spring with a grain of salt (the positive moreso than the negative), and a lot of the minor leaguers haven't gotten a lot of meaningful action. Still think Szczur can be a solid depth OF in the bigs, a Dave Roberts-esque type, but he's really going to have to hit with this power regularly for me to think he's more than that. craig is right on Cease's raw potential being a factor at this stage, and I wonder why I haven't pondered it. A part of me wonders if there's lingering Dillon Maples-reverberations that's in my mind.

Arrieta was better than Lester, and they made a big mid-season splash for a top tier arm.

Caratini - perhaps the most polished defensive backstop of our top backstops (admittedly, in of itself, that doesn't mean that much when the competition is Schwarber, Zagunis, Amaya, and the elder statesman in Lopez), he also has some offensive potential. How much depends on how much game power you think he can develop. I think there's the potential for maybe 10-12 HR's a year, which would be more than enough. Sands - Here's a potential 3 pitch lefty who might have 3 above average pitches, and he has some more growth potential. That's quality ceiling. Yes, it's an arm, but I think ceiling-wise, it's more than the standard "mid-rotation" guy, and that's plenty talented. I have Caratini ahead of Sands.

Some Nut That Sucks ... that's good. Much better than Shiny New Toy Syndrome.

Maybe I'm reading this statement wrong, but I'm reading it as regret, and I honestly can't think of an answer as a flat out "cut". There's a clear-cut reason to keep Bryant in the minors, so someone has to hold the fort in the interim. He's going to be up soon, and if for some reason, we're 1 or 2 games out of the playoffs, there's going to be other reasons that we can probably point to other than just Bryant not being there at the start. I really can't see Chris Coghlan, if he's playing poorly, pile up AB's when we have enough other options to rotate in there. Lake/Sweeney/Szczur/Denorfia? Sure, I can imagine us wanting to cut them, but not enough to feel that at the end of the season I might have regret. The easy answer is Jackson or Wood, but if they aren't depending on him ... and they don't seem to be ... dunno. Actually, if I'm irked about anything, it's having Olt/Villanueva on the 40 right now, but I imagine someone is going to get shifted when Bryant is ready. Dunno ... I could see regretting Fowler potentially, if say Alcantara takes off. All in all, it's a testament to a solid roster that it's hard to identify potential regrets right now. I'll say Castillo, but even then that's a stretch. I actually sort of like Wellington still, but I guess I can envision that third catcher being a limitation as we try to find time for him. He'll take a space from a bench player or a pen arm early, and maybe we'll regret that if it costs us and we end up not getting much for Castillo anyways, which is the way it's looking (I mean ... what's best case now ... some random Low A/XST lottery pick gamble, right?). Dunno.

Alright, just to throw out an answer, I'll say because the pitching staff dominated. I wouldn't be surprised if Arrieta slid back a bit ... but in all honesty, gut feeling says by end of the year, we'll view him as our best starter, and that isn't meant as a negative. I think Lester will be good, and I think if we're in the thick of things mid-season, I think they'll go out and grab a starter, rather than depend on Hammel/Hendricks/?. Who is yet to be determined, but someone's going to be available. If they get another top starter, that'll be a dominant postseason trio to trot out there, so whatever ups and downs the lineup goes through, the pitching staff might get us through it.

That's fair. I only brought up comps because you noted Butler (and as noted, I actually think he's probably closer to Alonso than some of the negative comps ... don't think, at the same age/level, he was as good as Alonso, but there's more similarities with him than with some of the other guys). At the end of the day, at this juncture of the rankings, I'll buy ceiling (and I think Sands ceiling could be really superb). As a tendency, there are certain profiles of guys that simply have to prove it to me up the ladder (command pitchers without plus pitches, guys whose value is based heavily on their hit tools, first basemen), so it would be somewhat fair to view my runoff vote more as a concern on Vogelbach than a nod to Sands (although I probably would've gone Caratini/Sands/Vogelbach in that order). Again, I'm not that concerned about Vogelbach being able to hit in the bigs if the stars aligned (don't know how much power ... but I think he can probably hit up the ladder), but the profile bothers me enough here, and I try to avoid going on gut feelings (although that' s impossible, as we all have our biases and there's certainly a level of a "gut feeling" nod to go with Sands ahead of Vogelbach). I can definitely understand it the other way. I think Sands ceiling is higher, but yes, it is fair to say his risk factor is monumentally higher than Vogelbach's, considering age/level, being a pitcher and so forth. In some respects, it sort of comes down to how I view Sands ceiling - if I simply viewed him as a lefty with "just" mid-rotation ceiling, I probably wouldn't put him ahead. But I think Sands might be better than that in time.

Rankings are obviously for discussion, but ceiling is always a significant aspect of it. Certainly, risk is another factor, but positional value would also be another concern. To simply label a vote for Sands as SNTS ... I mean, put it this way ... I would have more concerns with several guys ranked ahead at their respective spots than I would have with Sands here. Now ... I actually have a guy ahead of Sands that's left, but he's not in the runoff. I get the vote for Vogelbach, and I understand the apprehension on Sands. There's certainly immense risk with pitchers, particularly this far away. Heck, we don't have to look too far back to find an arm in the system that was hyped, and flamed/never got started (Dillon Maples). The thing with me is, Vogelbach is at a position where he needs to mash, and he needs to show it at higher levels. I think Vogelbach is a better hitter than Mark Canha/Kyle Blanks, but I'm not convinced that the profile for him demands a lot more attention than those guys did when they were in A+. Ike Davis looked like a star in A+ ... hasn't happened. Justin Smoak, Matt LaPorta - both stalled out. (I think people forget what a monster LaPorta looked like he would be when he hit ... uh what level was he at before the trade?) We can obviously find positives. There's the obvious Billy Butler one, and I actually think Yonder Alonso is a decent comp. The problem is, at his position, he really needs to mash to consistently, and at higher levels, and even then, it's a debatable proposition, and he needs the opportunity, as first base is often the refuge of aging players. Maybe one has a gut feeling on Vogelbach that they feel that strongly about (in all honesty, I think, if the opportunity is there, Vogelbach probably reaches the bigs, and probably hits relatively well), but while I like Vogelbach enough, I don't have that gut feeling. A 3 pitch lefty with a potential mid-rotation ceiling (and it honestly wouldn't stun me if, assuming positive development, that he ends up better than a mid-rotation arm) is tantalizing enough for me to go with him over Vogelbach here.

- Amaya being South Bend's everyday catcher should be a good sign. I had been wondering if he'd be sent to XST to get some more work in, but if they feel he's ready to take a full season gig as the main guy ... - Cartaini should be in Myrtle Beach. There was no reason for him to be in South Bend. I suspect he'll split with Zagunis there, or he'll be the main catcher with Zagunis getting the backup and OF time. - Stinnett "battling" for a spot in South Bend sure doesn't sound positive, to say the least. - Wouldn't have a huge problem if they kept McKinney in Myrtle Beach to start.

Okay, you got me ... why aren't rookie-eligible players, and in Sands case, a guy who is many years away from the bigs, considered prospects? Ah, I see you edited that to say pitchers. Still, even if you want to discount value because TINSTAAP, they still have value of some fashion.

Logan, I admit, I'm higher on Caratini's offensive potential than most, but your statement strikes me as odd. If anything, most think Caratini has decent offensive skills, and the questions are still revolving whether or not he can build upon the positive improvements this year that he made defensively. The question, offensively, is whether or not Caratini has enough power. I think so (I would point out pre-draft reports that suggested power potential (not everyone was in agreement, admittedly, but the general feeling, pre-draft was that he had around average power).) What's happened since he hit the professional ranks is that the power has become a bigger question (general feeling seems to be he has good gap power, but he might never tap fully into the raw power ... I haven't followed that closely this year, but the gist I got was that, while he gets loft, his swing gets a bit long at times ... Kiley's grades at fangraphs suggests this as well, as I look at it right now ... says 20 for Game Power, 45 for Raw Power). On the flip side, his defense has made enough improvements that the general report seems to be an increased belief that he can stick behind the plate. He still has the bat speed, he still has a good approach (admittedly, it's not Zagunis good, although I would point out in Rookie ball last year, Caratini walked 16% of the time, similar to what Zagunis did in rookie ball ... to be clear, I think Zagunis probably is a more disciplined/patient hitter with a more level swing) and most believe he'll hit for enough average. If he has average pop ... that's a pretty dang good catching prospect. If he has below average power, that's still a decent catching prospect. Caratini posted a pedestrian ISOP overall last year, but I would point out that, while with the Braves, his road numbers were .279/.367/.455, showing a very healthy amount of power (first one to say SS issue, but hey, people are getting excited over Zagunis pop from a very small sample size ... to be clear, I think Zagunis has some more pop as well). To the best of my recollection, Rome (his home park with the Braves) saps power. This isn't to say I think he's a lock to succeed or anything. Again, the profile just seems very solid, although I'll be the first one to say there seems to be some variance on reviews for Caratini (some say strong arm, others say superb release, average arm ... I think it's probably somewhere in b/w, as he seemed to go show good arm strength at 3rd from the few clips I recall seeing).

I get that, but I'm not so sure him being sent down early should be viewed as a sign of his readiness (or not). Again, you guys are following much closer than I am, so maybe his stuff has diminished and I'm not aware of it. That said, there simply, on paper, didn't seem to be a spot for him on the major league roster anyways. I guess I'm just not that concerned with it. Now, in saying that, I didn't think he was some sort of lock-down definite future late inning arm. Nice relief profile, with a shot at late inning usage. So in that sense, maybe my preconceptions of him make it so that I view this differently. _____ On Vogelbach, in all honesty, I would have him above at least one guy on the list, and maybe up to 3. I haven't made an actual list in ages, but glancing at the names, I think he'd go mid-teens for me. I simply think Caratini is being slept on a bit on this list (still not sold Zagunis should be ahead of him when Caratini is, by most accounts, more polished as a receiver), and Sands profile is very good for a lefty arm.

Out of curiosity ... why? I think he might be a tad over-hyped by some Cubs fans, but he's still a good relief prospect unless I missed something. Admittedly, I haven't been following things all that closely. Anyhow, point is, I'm curious why his getting cut early should give pause because ... I didn't think there was any way he was going to break camp on the 25 man. You have what, 4-5 righties in place for the pen already. You aren't going to use him as a long man. The guys that tend to stick around longer than expected are the guys whose profiles fit for that long man or lefty pen arm role. (as a ridiculous total side note, I would really like to get McKirahan back, although am not expecting it). Sending Rivero early to minor league camp with a prescription for what he needs to do early in the season to get back up sounds fine and shouldn't, unless I missed something, be viewed as an indictment of his ability, IMO.

I meant raw simply as in he's relatively new to pitching, so if they wanted to slow it down and have him at South Bend, it isn't exactly a bad thing. I would agree that his stuff/feel should be advanced enough for A+.

Voted Caratini/Sands still.

Fascinating comment by McLeod on Underwood, IMO, in 2 regards - first, that he has the most upside (I thought that was the case, but it seemed like there were enough folks that questioned it ... and McLeod seems very definitive in saying that), and second, perhaps more importantly, it seems like any work ethic concerns from 2 years ago, so far, isn't an issue again. Stinnett in South Bend would be fine. He is fairly raw after all, and perhaps they are tinkering with some things. Who knows. It would be much easier for some of the higher ups to keep an eye on his development than in Myrtle Beach. I'd rather see him in Myrtle Beach and get challenged, but if he needs a month or so in South Bend, okay. I would really like to see Jensen get some innings in AA. That said, if his velocity and stuff are back, I'd be surprised if he isn't fast-tracked as a pen arm. Still, getting some innings to work on things would be fine, and if his stuff is as good as it was once, that'd be a nice asset. I would much rather see Jensen in the rotation than Black, as I think Black is a surefire lock for the pen and might as well give someone innings who might have an outside, wish upon a start shot. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a surprise for a 5th job in Tennessee, though.

Sands and Caratini for me. At least, I'm comfortable with the Caratini one. I may revisit Sands later, maybe not.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they sat pat for now and waited to see how Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris performed this spring. I wouldn't be surprised if they simply opted for uh, what's their top 3 without Stroman, Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison? ... , and picked 2 out of Sanchez/Norris/Estrada to fill out the rotation for now. At the very least, I doubt they'd consider anything until the end of spring, and the chances seem high that there would be several options available to them. A part of me half-wonders if Anthoupoulos may try to swing for a top end starter, although that would thin out the system.